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Let’s Talk About Flex – week 7

NFL week 7 is here and Evan Brown is going to help you make some of those tricky start-sit flex decisions for your dynasty squads!

Ladies and gentlemen, we live in a simulation. Through six weeks of NFL action, twenty-two of the thirty-two teams cannot get above .500 in the win-loss column. In layman’s terms, 69% (NOICE) of the franchises cannot put together a winning record at this stage of the season.

Who IS living large in the wins column, you may ask? The Giants, Jets, and, oh yes, let us not forget the only undefeated team in the entire league, the Philadelphia Eagles, to name a few. We live in a simulation.

As you may have noticed, this unforeseen start to the regular season has had a trickle-down effect on our dynasty fantasy football squads. Many players we thought were weekly locks in our starting lineups aren’t even worth the roster spot they are currently burning. (Yes, I am looking at YOU, Elijah Moore!) Players we could have snagged off the waiver wire or for a future third-round pick in the off-season are seen as a staple of our weekly projections. (Geno Smith, anyone?)

In a world that has lost its senses, what is a dynasty fantasy football player to do?! Dig deep, adjust to change, and adapt to the new norm!

We were sadly mistaken if we expected the weirdness to end in Week 6. For example, immediately after last week’s article was published, Cam Akers was ruled out for the Rams game against the Panthers. That left only three players in the pool of picks for the week.

Let’s do a quick recap!

Hits

Rondale Moore

The Arizona vs. Seattle score fest we were promised was a letdown. Amid the abysmal Cardinals’ performance, Rondale managed to command ten targets! A 27% target share for the second-year player is fantastic progress! Sadly, it wasn’t accompanied by any TDs. Contributing 10.9 fantasy points to your flex position wasn’t the worst thing in the world in a mad week.

Alec Pierce

This call came down to a TD to be considered a “hit.” Pittman was the star of the show and gobbled up 16 targets on his way to a smash performance against the Jaguars. If you started Pierce, you had a long and grueling wait to fantasy goodness as he only managed to haul in three of his seven targets. Thankfully his game-winning TD was one of them! The Colts’ offense continues to be difficult to predict, with no clear identifiable patterns to target.

Matt Ryan threw the ball 58 times, and Pierce only had a 12% target share. I think it’s fairly difficult to trust any WR outside of MIchael Pittman Jr. on a weekly basis.

Misses

Darius Slayton

I admit my heart got the better of my brain last week. When writing about Darius, I knew it might blow up in my face. Sadly, much like Icarus, I fell prey to my hubris. My success from Week 5 blinded my logic, which was my downfall! Slayton did play the most snaps at 69% in Week 6 (NOICE). On the negative side, he only managed one reception on three targets for 18 yards. The Giants’ unconventional approach continues to yield on-field success and frustrating fantasy results (Saquon Barkley aside).

This brings the tally to 15-9 on the year, which is a 63% hit rate! I want to see if we can break 70%!

PSA, I will only choose from WRs outside the top 36 and RBs outside the top 24 based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings for week 7. The scoring is PPR.

Shall we?!

Week 7

Wan’Dale Robinson NYG WR48 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

Robinson immediately impacted the struggling G-men in last week’s nail-biter of a victory over the Baltimore Ravens. He only played 23% of the snaps yet had four targets and three receptions, including a TD. To put that in perspective, Daniel Bellinger led the Giants’ receiving corp with five targets.

Robinson had been injured since Week 1, and the plan was to ease him back in against the Ravens. In a small sample size, Robinson leads the Giants’ WR room in the PFF Offensive score and Receiving score as well as YPRR (Yards Per Route Run). He also happens to boast the fourth-highest NFL passer rating when targeted of any receiver in the league (minimum three targets).

Playing the Jacksonville Jaguars this week is no cakewalk. The Jags are a good defense this year and rank in the upper third of the league in most defensive metrics. Every team has a weakness, even the mighty Jacksonville Jaguars. They have given up the tenth most points to the slot receiver position through six weeks. Robinson has played 68.8% of his snaps from the slot in his short career. Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay are set to miss out again, and I think Robinson could be in for a nice day!

Darnell Mooney CHI WR37 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

It has been a rough start to the year for Mooney truthers (of which I am one). If it weren’t for the Denver Broncos, the Chicago Bears would be averaging the worst PPG in the entire league at 15.5. From a DVOA perspective, the Bears are 30th in the league on offense. Why am I suggesting you flex Mooney, you might ask?!

I promise there is some method to my madness.

Justin Fields threw the ball 27 times last Thursday night against the Washington Commanders. That isn’t a lot, you might say. True. Surprisingly, however, that is the most he has thrown the ball in a game this season. Mooney had 12 of those targets. A target share of 44% (for you mathematicians out there) is a glorious thing. Mooney played the most amount of snaps at 92%, and he is by far their most talented and productive WR.

If the Bears want a chance to stay in this game against the Patriots on Monday night, they will need to pass the ball. Darnell always offers the skills and speed to break a big play potentially. If you are in a pinch, I think you could do much worse than flexing Mr. Mooney this week.

Tyler Boyd CIN WR38 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬆️

Boyd is such a hero. You never see him creating problems or drama. He does the dirty work and shows up day in and day out for his team. Tyler is one of the best, if not the best, WR3 in the NFL, in my opinion. The Bengals get the absolute pleasure of taking on the Atlanta Falcons this week.

The Falcons have given up the most yards through the air of any team in the National Football League this season. Atlanta has allowed the seventh most points to the slot receiver in fantasy this year. The Falcons’ defense has also allowed the fourth most TDs to WRs. Boyd runs 82.6% of his routes out of the slot and has a nice juicy 47.5 points over/under matchup to take advantage of this weekend.

Corey Davis NYJ WR47 FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rank ⬇️

Davis has been arguably the best Jets WR for fantasy this season. He is currently WR35 on the season, ahead of Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore. Corey has shown a strong affinity with Zach Wilson and seems to be one of Zach’s preferred targets.

The main issue is that the Jets have only been throwing the ball 25 times per game since Wilson’s return in Week 4. As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Jets have to face the Denver Broncos this week. Through six weeks, the Broncos are ranked second in defensive DVOA and first against the past. The Broncos’ are only giving up 184.5 yards per game through the air currently (fifth best) and allowing a QBR rating of 75.1 (fifth best) to opposing QBs.

Zach Wilson only has a QBR of 73.9 (fourth worst) in the league. Patrick Surtain II is an absolute beast at CB for the Broncos and currently has the third-highest PFF coverage grade of any corner (minimum of 50 snaps played). If you can help it, you should probably leave Davis on your bench this week.

There you have it, friends. A few players to ponder sticking in the lineup or potentially avoiding. I hope you found that helpful and have all the fantasy luck you could ask for in Week 7! If you want to chat about anything I covered or talk fantasy football, you can catch me on Twitter @FFEvanlution.

Make sure you subscribe to the #NerdHerd, where you get exclusive content, dynasty/rookie/devy rankings, buy/sell tool, and a bonus podcast. Dynasty Nerds also recently launched the #DynastyGM tool, a complete game-changer in the fantasy industry. Click here for a free trial. We are your one-stop shop for all your fantasy football needs!

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