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Let’s Talk About Flex – Week 8

If you are stuck with some tricky start-sit flex decisions heading into week 8, then join Evan Brown as he breaks down some of his top picks.

Please join me for a moment of silence as we reflect on our losses from Week 7. I don’t mean specific matchup losses. Hopefully, those were few and far between. I am, of course, speaking of the host of injuries that occurred to some of our favorite studs last weekend—sad times.

It was tough in the dynasty streets, and I am sure there are some pretty frustrated/disappointed managers out there. (I know I am one of those very managers in a couple of my leagues!) What is a contender supposed to do when beset by such tragic incidents?! You know the old saying, “when the going gets tough, the tough get going!”

Let’s get going!

Be sure to follow our other start/sit articles and authors; they contain great advice to help you each week.

Changing the Call (QB): Jayson Snyder
The Cutback (RB): Jake Oliver
Slant Pattern (WR): Tristan Cook
12 Formation (TE): Ethan Wyatt
Flex on ‘Em (FLEX): Evan Brown
IDP Start/Sit (IDP): Jon Glosser

Last week was a solid week from a predictions standpoint. I went 3 for 4 on the players suggested, and you know what? In Week 7, I will take it! Before we go any further, let’s talk specifics.

Hits

Wan’Dale Robinson

Robinson started like a house on fire. He racked up six receptions by halftime against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I was feeling pretty confident about this pick. Sadly, Robinson picked up a minor knock and didn’t receive a single target in the second half! Wan’Dale gave you 11 PPR points and finished the week as WR35. Robinson played 69% of the snaps (NOICE) and ran the second most routes for the G-men on Sunday. The arrow is certainly pointing up for the rookie wide receiver!

Tyler Boyd

I understand that victory lapping can be a little annoying sometimes, but when I am writing up players outside the top 36 in expert rankings, and they finish as WR2 on the week, papa’s gonna lap!!! I’m not going to lie. It felt pretty dang good to see Boyd smash as I had predicted. I want your teams to succeed, and I take great pride in the work I put into these recommendations. Boyd had 8 receptions on 9 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta! The Bengals’ offense was clicking on all levels and demolished the run-heavy Falcons.

Corey Davis

Corey Davis was injured early on and only played 22% of the snaps last week against the Broncos. So why am I counting this as a hit? With Elijah Moore inactive for Week 7 (due to a trade request), the temptation to play Davis would have been that much stronger. On top of that, the entire Jets’ wide receiver corp combined for 8 receptions and 43 yards with 0 touchdowns. I feel confident counting this as a win. I doubt you would have been unhappy if you had listened to me and avoided Jet’s pass-catchers altogether.

Misses

Darnell Mooney

Mooney is a surprise addition to the L column when you think about the fact the Bears upset the Patriots and embarrassed them on Monday Night Football. Similar to Wan’Dale, this was a tale of two halves for Mr. Mooney. At halftime, he was sitting on 3 receptions and 4 targets for 53 yards. Sounds pretty good! Sadly, he ended the game on 3 receptions and 53 yards, though he did get two more targets. Fields only threw the ball 21 times, and the game script did not require pushing the ball downfield. Mooney remains the most involved wide receiver in terms of snap share and routes run. However, while the target volume remains so low, he is a risky weekly flex option.

Including last week’s calls brings the year’s record to 18-10 on players recommended for a start or sit. A 64% hit rate on these calls is pretty solid, but I still want to climb into the 70+% range over the next few weeks, if possible. As a reminder, I am picking players outside the top 36 at wide receiver and outside the top 24 at running back. These numbers are based on the week’s FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, and the scoring setting is full PPR.

Week 8

Zay Jones JAC WR48 FantasyPros Expert Rank ⬆️

No holds barred this week! Zay sounds like a risky pick at first, but there is some logic behind this call. While Christian Kirk gets all the buzz and the fanfare, Jones is in the background doing his fair share of the heavy lifting. In Week 7, Zay quietly tied his fellow receiver with 10 targets! That is a 23% target share of Trevor Lawrence’s 43 pass attempts against the Giants. Jones was on the field 99% of the snaps to Kirks 94% and ran one more route. Surprisingly, Jones has only five fewer targets than Kirk on the season, even though he has played one less game. He also boasts a slightly higher PFF grade in 2022.

The Denver Broncos defense is no joke. Patrick Surtain II is an absolute stud cornerback. As a team, the Broncos have given up the 27th fewest points to outside wide receivers and the 28th fewest to the slot. All of that is bad news. However, the Jags MUST pass the ball to try and score on the Broncos. If Surtain shadows someone, it will probably be Kirk. I think Zay could benefit from volume.

Mack Hollins LV WR59 FantasyPros Expert Rank ⬆️

If you had told me in the pre-season I would be suggesting you start Mack Hollins in anything other than a 22-team 8-copy start-12 league, I would have said you were smoking something. I am swinging for the fences a little on this one but hear me out, at least.

For some inexplicable reason, Mack made himself an important part of the Raiders’ offense in 2022. He has already set career highs in receptions and yardage less than halfway through the season. Hollins is on the field and running as many, if not more, routes than any other Las Vegas wide receiver not named Davante Adams. He caught another crucial touchdown last week and seemed to have a special connection with Derek Carr. After six games, Hollins has run only 10 fewer routes than Davante Adams and boasts the highest NFL passer rating when targeted by Carr.

This week the Raiders face the New Orleans Saints. The weather is supposed to be good. Vegas has given the game a decent 46.5 over/under. The Saints give up the 2nd most points to the outside receiver this season. There has been no definitive statement on whether Marshon Lattimore is playing this week.

Adams being healthy means that even if Lattimore plays, the attention is going toward number 17. Las Vegas does not have a great defense and even with Andy Dalton set to start, I think the Saints will be able to score some points and move the ball against the Black and Silver. It may come down to a touchdown, but you can roll Hollins out if you need an extra upside flex play in deeper leagues.

D’Onta Foreman CAR RB31 FantasyPros Expert Rank ⬆️

Foreman has again placed himself into contention for a starting role on all the ZeroRB rosters. Let’s be completely honest about it. With all the injuries that have happened, many of our rosters are ZeroRB, whether we meant to be or not!

Chuba Hubbard played well last week but tweaked his ankle and is unlikely to be at 100% in Week 8. The Falcons are the 32nd-ranked defense according to DVOA and 26th against the run. Carolina is 13th in RUSH DVOA, so hopefully, they can slow down Atlanta enough to keep it a close game. This is more of a volume-based play. With a beat-up Hubbard and a potentially low-scoring divisional game, Foreman could get enough work to be a solid flex play.

Parris Campbell IND WR55 FantasyPros Expert Rank ⬆️

If Matt Ryan were still the quarterback in Indy, this would be a no-brainer pick. The one-time MVP has officially been replaced by Sam Ehlinger, according to Frank Reich. I am not sure about this move at all, and my selection of Campbell is in no way a vote of confidence for Sam.

This pick is based on a few factors surrounding the Week 8 matchup. Campbell has been on fire recently, commanding double-digit targets against Jacksonville and Tennessee. The Commanders are giving up the fourth most points to the slot receiver in the NFL. Parris has run 78.9% of his routes out of the slot, according to PFF.

I think for Sam Ehlinger’s first proper start, they will want to have some quick-hit, nice short passes lined up, and that is right up Parris’ alley. Campbell has a 5.1-yard ADOT (Average Depth of Target) and boasts the second highest passer rating when targeted on the team. It sounds like a great recipe to help give confidence to a first-time starting quarterback!

Michael Gallup DAL WR37 FantasyPros Expert Rank ⬇️

Sadly I am recommending looking elsewhere for your flex needs in Week 8. Michael Gallup is only recently returned from injury and saw only two targets in Week 7. Gallup played fewer snaps (67%) than either Noah Brown (79%) or CeeDee Lamb (83%) against the Lions last weekend.

The Bears game currently has a 43.5 over/under, and Dallas has the second-best defense, according to DVOA. Chicago is 31st for offensive DVOA and has shown a tendency to run far more than pass. This game could go fairly quickly, and as things stand, it seems like Gallup is the fourth option in the passing game. I want to sit Gallup for now.

I will end this week’s article with that and hope you stick with me till the end! It’s tough in those dynasty streets at the moment, and hopefully, this has made your job a little easier!

If you want to chat about anything I covered or talk fantasy football in general, you can catch me on Twitter @FFEvanlution or check out my podcast Dynasty Debates (@DynastyDebates) on all major podcast listening platforms!

Good luck this weekend!

Evan

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