We’re back, baby!
What a time to be alive! Not only is the NFL back, fantasy football is back, and most importantly of all (for this article), I am back! This will be my second year writing my (cheekily named) weekly flex article, and as the old saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” I will stick with the same overall theme and structure of last year’s articles, but if you are just joining us, here is a little recap!
I will try to recommend a couple of flex-worthy options for your dynasty roster each week. I will also give you a brief rundown of why I am feeling optimistic. The FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) for the week will be my guidelines (PPR scoring), and I won’t waste your time talking about any running back (RB) or wide receiver (WR) they have listed inside their top 24 for that respective week. I may also point out a player or two that feels like a trap and highlight my thoughts behind the reluctance to recommend.
If the player scores more than 10 PPR points in the week, they will be considered a “hit,” and if they do not…Well, I think we all know what that means! I will keep a running tally throughout the season and give an update on each weekly article about how the previous week’s predictions went. Last year, I finished on just over a 60% hit rate on players, so I will see if I can better that this season!
Let’s get to the list!
Raheem Mostert RB25 FantasyPros ECR ⬆️
I am excited about Devon Achane’s potential in this Mike McDaniel masterminded run game. However, it IS only week one, and Mostert is the starter. Jeff Wilson has been placed on IR. Aside from the aforementioned rookie, the only other threat to Mostert’s playing time is Salvon Ahmed. Achane got banged up in pre-season and is just back to full practice.
Let’s not forget that Mostert led the Dolphins backfield last year with 891 yards on 181 carries. It may not stay this way, but for now, it feels like it is Mostert’s role to lose. I would have to have some pretty great options at RB to keep Mostert benched this weekend!
Christian Kirk JAC WR30 FantasyPros ECR ⬆️
This one feels odd to me. I know we are all excited about Ridley. I know we expect the Jags to handle their business against the rookie QB for the divisional rival Colts. But seriously, Kirk was the WR11 last year in PPR leagues, and you will do him like that week one?! I feel very confident sliding Kirk into my lineup as a WR3. Does he still have the top 12 ceiling with Ridley in town? Maybe not. Is he still a super safe flex play with a nice big-play upside?! Absolutely!
Breece Hall NYJ RB30 FantasyPros ECR ⬇️
I love me some Hall. Amazingly, he has made such a quick turnaround from such a gruesome injury! However, I feel that the realist in me needs to point out that Dalvin Cook was brought in for a reason.
There is a genuine chance that the Jets will manage Hall’s workload early in the season. If you have Hall, it’s a tough pill to swallow. But I would probably hold off if possible this week. I would rather have a less-than-bell-cow Hall for the first few weeks and avoid a recurrence of the injury.
Diontae Johnson PIT WR25 FantasyPros ECR ⬆️
I have to throw Johnson in here, as this could be one of the only times he is low enough on the ECR to squeeze him in. People are well and truly freaked out about him. I guess people don’t like players who demand almost 150 targets. All jokes aside, in a PPR format, I think you should roll Johnson out and, at worst, expect a handful of receptions with some decent yardage. The Steelers have had a dream pre-season, and hopes are high in Pittsburgh. I am even keeping my fingers crossed that positive touchdown regression starts this weekend for Johnson!
Michael Thomas NO WR38 FantasyPros ECR ⬆️
I must admit, this one feels like Michael Scott from The Office when he says, “No question about it; I am ready to get hurt again.” Let’s be honest; it has been mostly painful for the Michael Thomas manager over the last couple of seasons.
However, it is a decent enough matchup on paper. Thomas is healthy (from what we are being told). I think the fact that it is week one, you have to trust the fantasy gods and throw Thomas into the flex, for old times’ sake! After all, Derek Carr loved targeting Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller in the slot. Thomas DID have 17 targets and three touchdowns in his first two games last year. I’m just saying…
It’s week one, and as we have already seen with the mighty Chiefs being humbled by the up-and-coming Lions, anything can happen in week one! Try not to tilt too hard! I hope you all enjoyed the article, and I hope you all get a week one win!
If you want to chat fantasy football, you can always find me on X / Twitter @FFEvanlution. You can also check out my year-round dynasty fantasy football podcast (@DynastyDebates) on all major podcast listening platforms!