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Pat Freiermuth Dynasty Outlook: Buy Now!

@SteveBradshawFF dives into why you should buy Pat Freiermuth in dynasty!

With the conclusion of the NFL draft, so many players have had their dynasty value drastically impacted. In a draft full of excellent tight-end prospects, the best value at the position is already sitting right under our noses. 

After recording 98 targets last year, Pat Freiermuth is one of the best buys in the dynasty. Coming out of Penn State, Freiermuth was a great prospect and ended up going to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second round of the NFL Draft. 

Rookie Season Recap

No one expected Freiermuth to produce his rookie season as it takes most tight ends years to develop into a top 12 tight end. In year one, Freiermuth excelled, putting up 9.5 PPG on a 60-497-7 season with 79 targets. 

This is phenomenal for Freiermuth as he is one of six tight ends since 2010 to average more than nine points per game in his rookie season. This list includes Kyle PittsEvan EngramJordan ReedRob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez. These players have been good dynasty assets which give me hope that Freiermuth will continue to improve. 

Pat Freiermuth’s 2023 Outlook

Unfortunately, year two was about the same, where Freiermuth averaged 9.3 PPG. However, he had a better season in year two besides his touchdowns. This doesn’t bother me because fantasy football’s touchdowns are the most difficult to predict. I’m confident that Freiermuth can score more than two touchdowns in 2023. On top of this, Kenny Pickett was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. I expect the former first-round pick to take a step forward next season. 

The team took Darnell Washington in the third round of this year’s draft, but this doesn’t worry me. Washington is a great pass blocker but an extremely raw pass catcher. It takes so long for these tight ends to develop that I’m not worrying about someone who can be a serviceable pass catcher in 3 to 4 years.

Buy Pat Freiermuth?

Freiermuth has an ADP of 85, according to Dynasty Nerds. At the price point, I’m very comfortable drafting Freiermuth, who is going just after guys like Joe MixonTerry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson. I would much rather have an ascending tight end like Freiermuth.

According to KTC, you can trade Dalton Kincaid for Freiermuth straight up. I would make this trade as you’re getting a tight end stepping into the prime of his development in Freiermuth. I would rather have Freiermuth than Kincaid right now straight up. This sounds ridiculous to some people, but rookie tight ends seldom see an increase in value, no matter what.

Even if Kincaid has a good rookie year, he wouldn’t be valued much higher than he is now. That’s the best-case scenario, as less than 25% of first-round tight ends even produce a top-12 season in their rookie year. On the other hand, Freiermuth has a real chance to break out and have his value skyrocket up to the Dallas Goedert or T. J. Hockenson range. 

Even if Freiermuth doesn’t take the next step, I don’t see any way he can lose value. I imagine Pickett will improve in his second year, like most sophomore quarterbacks, which will significantly help Freiermuth. Freiermuth is a player with phenomenal upside that you should buy while you can. 

Get the Dynasty Nerds app in the Apple and Google Play stores. Mock drafts for Superflex, 1QB, and Standard. If you are a DynastyGM subscriber, it even syncs with your actual teams so that you can do rookie mock drafts with ALL of your actual picks, also on desktop.

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