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Players on the Move – 1/2/23

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league, and each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Garrett Wilson

Wilson is the 30th receiver in PPG and the 8th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. He has seen significant snap share since Week 8, solidifying himself as the WR1 for the Jets. Since that time, he has averaged 5.4 catches on 8.4 targets. Over that span, he has averaged 85 yards a game with a quarter of a touchdown. That’s good for an adjusted 14th place in PPG over that time. As a young receiver with both large target volume and yards per game, the only thing holding back his value is the Jets’ offense. He will need to break free to the endzone or become a bigger red-zone threat to make the next leap.

KTC has him priced at about a mid-1st, 2nd, and 3rd. He is valued slightly higher and thus would be a buyer at the current price of a year’s worth of picks. Looking ahead, I would expect the offense to improve. He should see more touchdowns in his future as a result. His quarterback situation should likely improve, as he had a carousel of three pretty poor quarterbacks throwing to him this year.

DeVonta Smith

Smith is the 15th receiver in PPG and the 16th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. Coming into the year, the Eagles offense was not expected to outperform as it had with quarterback play from Hurts. Smith’s first game saw no catches on four targets, with A.J. Brown stealing the show. However, he quickly turned the season around with a respectable seven touchdowns and four 100+ yard games.

KTC has him priced at an early 1st. Consensus values him closer to a mid-first. However, logically in comparison to Wilson, we would expect only a slight age preference for Wilson. The current price difference seems that the market is undervaluing Smith and/or overvaluing Wilson. While Wilson may be the better “value” based on consensus, my intuition would lead me to arbitrage this by being a buyer of Smith and a seller of Wilson. They are neck and neck when we look at adjustment PPG ranks. Maybe the difference in quarterback play accounts for this large difference in potential upside for Wilson. However, I would rather pay based on the current situation where Hurts has already unlocked Smith’s value. We’re hoping Smith has a monster 2023 playoff performance to bring home some cheddar at  PowerPlay Sportsbook.

Treylon Burks

To wrap up this young wide receiver theme this week, we will next look at Burks. Burks is the 59th receiver in PPG and the 20th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. What has been an injury-filled season on a run-first (and second) offense, Burks has started to put it together towards the end of the season. He has only seen seven weeks of over 50% snap share. Over those games, he has no touchdowns (those are for Henry) but did see 111 yards in Week 11. He has a high of 8 targets, which occurred twice, and 7 completions. The volume isn’t currently there, and we haven’t had enough data to really ascertain value.

KTC has him priced at a touch less than a mid-1st. This slightly overrates him at a late 1st. He is currently priced above fellow rookies Pickens and Dotson, who finished ahead of him in production. He is also priced above Hollywood, Aiyuk, and Moore, who all finished significantly ahead of him. I would look to move off of him to a more established young talent. The upside may come for Burks, but he will have to wait for a more pass-friendly offense, which requires Henry to slow down. The King doesn’t show any signs of happening any time soon.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Nick Chubb

Even with a sizable timeshare with Hunt, Chubb had another monster year finishing 6th in PPG. However, he let down many owners in the playoffs, which has caused his value to fall more recently. He is currently the 9th dynasty-ranked running back. Age be damned. He has gone over 100 all-purpose yards in 9 of 15 games, with 12 touchdowns to boot. No matter how you slice it, on limited volume, Chubb is still an elite fantasy asset.

KTC has him priced at an early 1st. This is a touch high but in line with his consensus value. His value will likely continue to fall in the offseason due to the upcoming rookie hype pushing the older players down. See my prior article on the dynasty value timeline for further clarification into this concept. I would look to acquire shares of him closer to the start of the season. Managers may be feeling the pain of him “losing me the playoffs,” so I would additionally throw out feelers now for any disgruntled managers if you can acquire him below market for, say, a late first. If you are looking to avoid this potential further drop, you can consider moving to Jacobs, who is three years younger and finished much higher in PPG. If you are looking to move towards a rebuild, a player like Swift, who has been in free fall, may be an attractive target. He may be a bargain, assuming he can take over lead-back duties in the near future.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre sits in 13th place in PPG and is the 12th-ranked running back in dynasty. He came into the year behind Damien Harris and quickly took over the job. With lingering injuries to Harris, Rhamondre was able to see multiple games of 75%+ snap share, which is rare in a Patriots offense. He only saw the end zone six times which hurt his value. He had five games of 100+ all-purpose yards and strong efficiency on the ground. With his high broken tackle rate and huge value boost in the passing game, Rhamondre is becoming an elite fantasy asset. He is heading into the last two years of his rookie contract and thus has a secure role for the near future.

KTC has him priced at an early 1st. This is higher than his consensus value as a mid-1st. As far as younger players go, the only running back above him in PPG is Breece. Walker and JT are much further down the PPG list, yet are way ahead of him in dynasty. This could be an opportunity to trade down from a premium-priced young running back to one of value while adding future draft capital. A move down from Walker to Rhamondre should net a late-1st. The top of the dynasty board rotates through each year with young talent, but it’s unlikely those players maintain that, especially at running back. Unless you have a Jefferson or Chase on your hands, it likely makes sense to trade down to a similar production player and pocket the picks.

Dalvin Cook

Cook sits in 10th place in PPG and is the 16th-ranked running back in dynasty. He saw a respectable 10 touchdowns to date and had five games off 100+ all-purpose yards. The elite 2020 seasons are likely in his rearview mirror now at age 27, but top 12 finishes surely remain. Cook maintains a huge advantage over Mattison, seeing 75%+ snap share in all but five games. Mattison is likely to move on next year with Dalvin returning. If so, his competition will likely be worse, or a rookie who can be brought into the system slowly.

KTC has him priced at a mid to late 1st. This is slightly higher than his consensus value as a late 1st. With production slowly fading, I am interested if I am in a contending window and can afford the price. However, a rookie like Dameon Pierce at a comparable price could be an option. When adjusting PPG to remove his first game with limited snaps, Pierce averaged 19th in PPG on the season. His opportunity will theoretically stay about the same next year. This drop from 10th to 19th to reset the clock at the position is likely worth it even for a competing manager. With cooks PPG likely on the decline and Pierce hopefully able to maintain or improve, this could be a great arbitrage opportunity. However, Pierce’s low draft capital will make it a bit risky as Houston could readdress the position or leverage backups in more of a timeshare next year.

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