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Players on the Move – 11/11/22

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league, along with each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off his first weekly TE1 finish of the season. This 27-year-old has elevated his fantasy value mainly through the rise of the Philly offense. He has shown he can still garner targets in an offense that competes with A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Hurts’ legs. He has seen 6+ targets in all but two games and hit the century mark this past week for the first time this season to go along with a touchdown.

At a value of a very late first-round rookie pick, the market through KTC has him accurately priced. Goedert is a great fit for both a contending or late-stage rebuilding team. He remains in his prime years with the longevity of the tight end position on his side. Goedert is the fourth-ranked tight end in PPG and is at the top of the tier after Kelce/Andrews. He has moved up from seventh to fifth in dynasty ranks at the position. While not a value at this price point, I like the idea of locking in a solid tight end like him or Hockenson rather than trying to make do with a lower-tier player. Tight end is a wasteland further down the list. Getting this upper mid-tier talent can do a lot to put your mind at ease at the position for the long term.

Rondale Moore

Rondale Moore finished 67th last year at wide receiver on limited snap share. He was hurt entering the season, and Dortch filled in very nicely for him. Dortch saw a snap percent average in the low 80s with 23 targets over those three games. It looked like Moore would need to prove he was the WR3 on that team when he returned from injury. In his first three games back, Moore saw 23 targets as well, taking back what was his. Through six games, he had only one touchdown grab. While seeing 8+ targets in four of those six games, he hadn’t really put up big yardage. In three games, he failed to hit 50 yards, and he has only broken out in one game for 98 total yards.

At a value of a third-round rookie pick, the market has him valued too high as an early-second. He has fallen from the 48th to 54th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. With Brown going out right as Hopkins returned from suspension, it seems he has lucked his way into receiving some targets. If the receiving core were healthy, we would see more of what we saw last year, and his market price would fall further in line with his performance.

Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier came into the year as the 49th dynasty-ranked running back and now sits at 41st. The Patterson injury in Week 4 allowed Allgeier to see his snap share increase from about 40% to 60% over the four weeks Patterson was out. During that time, Allgeier saw 2.8 to 3.5 YPC and one touchdown with a high of 51 rushing yards. He also saw three targets in the last week of that four-week stretch. These performances were okay fill-in weeks but didn’t show any top-tier ability exists. However, in Week 9, with Patterson back, Allgeier was able to rush 10 times for 99 yards, closely matching a Week 3, 10 carries for 84 yards performance.

At a value of a late third-round rookie pick, the market has him valued too high as a mid-second. I would look to flip him for that second if you can, as his upside may be limited. Even if the depth is needed, he would be a risky fill-in with Patterson back healthy. As a fifth-round draft pick, he likely doesn’t have the draft capital for the team to commit to him as a lead back. At any point in the future, I could see the Falcons re-address the position.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Leonard Fournette

Fournette is now the dynasty-ranked 22nd running back, moving up two spots from the start of the season. He sits at 16th at the position on a PPG basis which is about what owners were hoping for this season. He is a solid complimentary piece to a contending roster. His PFF rating has fallen from 74 last year down to 64. With the injuries to his line throughout the season, this isn’t a terrible outcome.

KTC has him valued at about a very early second. I believe after the recent fall in value, this is an accurate price. His value really only exists for a contender. It’s unlikely anyone who is not contending is holding him at this point unless their team completely fell apart. I don’t believe there will be much trading opportunity around this player, nor is he a value target.

Ezekiel Elliott

Zeke is now the dynasty-ranked 30th running back, moving down five spots from the start of the season. He sits at 26th at the position on a PPG basis, four spots further back than his backup, Tony Pollard. He is not adding much value except as a fill-in piece to a contending team. His PFF rating is surprisingly still high at 73. This is down from his 2019 grade of 77 but up from more recent years past. With Pollard in the mix, Zeke’s upside is capped. He has only seen a high of 67% snap share and, through seven games, has yet to reach 100 combined yards.

KTC has him valued at about a mid-second. I believe after the recent fall in value, this is an accurate price. Similar to Fournette, his value also only exists for a contender. It’s unlikely anyone is holding him at this point unless you are a contender who has completely fallen apart. I don’t believe there will be much trading opportunity around this player, nor is he a value target unless you need to replenish depth.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Clyde is now the dynasty-ranked 31st running back, moving down three spots from the start of the season. He sits at 23rd at the position on a PPG basis. Owners may forget that he is still only 23 years old and was once an overall rookie 1.01 draft pick. Additionally, he has put up this relatively high PPG on snap share in the low 40s, with only one game seeing above 50%. McKinnon has seen a slightly higher snap share and ranks only 53rd in PPG by comparison. Pacheco, at 73rd in PPG, has been named the starter in various games, only to go on to see limited snap share.

This backfield is a disaster for all three due to this timeshare. However, CEH has a PFF rating of 67, which is about his career average, and down from the 75 he posted his rookie year. It seems there is potential misuse by the KC offense, and more time or a change of scenery could be a big boost to his value. Unlike the other running backs on this list, he has seen 100 combined yards in a game this season. He has value as a pass-catching back which is underused by this offense and has fallen off considerably in recent weeks.

KTC has him valued at about a mid-second. I believe after the recent fall in value, this is an accurate price. However, compared to the much older players on this list, this seems like a better bet. He still has a higher-end upside and would be a better piece in a rebuild due to his inconsistency and recent low-end performances. It’s likely those holding him may be frustrated at this point and willing to move him for less. So while not a target play per se, as a variance play, there are worse shots you can take.

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