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Players on the Move – 11/18/22

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league, along with each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Chris Godwin

Godwin is the 34th receiver in PPG and the 18th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. However, his PPG numbers may be slightly skewed down due to getting re-injured in Week 1. He has seen double-digit targets in five of his last seven games. Godwin has failed to hit the century mark this season, coming close in Week 6 with 95 yards. Godwin is a solid contributor with a high floor and low ceiling. He recorded his first touchdown on the season in Week 10, so he has relied on consistent targets for production.

KTC has him priced at a mid-first. I believe he is valued on the later end of the mid-first range, so I think he’s valued relatively fairly. In looking ahead, TB12 will eventually have to retire (I think?), so he may struggle in his final years if he remains in place. He signed a three-year contract, so he will still have two more years in Tampa Bay after this season. Since he isn’t a difference-making wide receiver, I don’t think I would actively target him at this point. If I could get him for a very late first, I would do so.

Terry McLaurin

Scary Terry is the 26th receiver in PPG and the 23rd dynasty-ranked wide receiver. Poor and inconsistent quarterback play has hampered his ceiling again this year. However, he has seen eight or more targets in the last four games. He only has two touchdowns on the season, so like Godwin, McLaurin has relied on targets and yardage. However, unlike Godwin, McLaurin has reached 100 yards in three games this season, including two over the last four games.

KTC has him priced at a mid-to-late-first. I believe he is valued at about 1.12 or 2.1, so he’s valued relatively fairly but a bit high, in my opinion. Looking ahead, it seems clear that the Commanders will have to address the quarterback position, so he may see his ceiling capped unless they strike gold. The Commanders have seemingly locked McLaurin into a career contract. McLaurin, while not currently a difference-making wide receiver, seems to have more explosive upside than others at this price point. I would actively target him and try to get him for a very late first or, ideally, an early second.

Courtland Sutton

To wrap up this middle-aged wide receiver theme we seem to have this week, we will circle back to Sutton. Sutton is the 43rd receiver in PPG and the 27th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. What started as a seemingly strong connection with Russ faded quickly. Over Weeks 6 to 8, Sutton caught 6 passes on 16 targets. This is terrible efficiency on terrible opportunity. Sutton also only has one touchdown catch on the season in what was expected to be a huge offense coming into the year.

KTC has him priced at a very early second. This is in line with his value. Looking ahead, I imagine Russ will self-correct at some point. If so, we should see at least a return to the numbers Sutton was putting up to start the season. The Broncos have locked Sutton into a career contract with their four-year deal. The Broncos spent a ton of money in the offseason to lock up the quarterback and wide receiver positions, and little production has come from this group.

Sutton really only had one solid year back in 2019, where he finished 19th on the season. That appears to be his ceiling. I am having trouble seeing where he can have more than a depth role on your roster. I wouldn’t actively target him, but if I could land him at a late to mid-second, I would jump at that chance. At this point, Sutton has frustrated managers to no end. However, he did rebound in Week 10, so the window may be closing.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Najee Harris

After a monster rookie season finishing third in PPG, Najee sits in 35th place in PPG and has fallen all the way down to the 15th-ranked running back in dynasty. Najee has failed to reach 100 all-purpose yards in a game and only has three touchdowns on the season. Even with this very poor performance, he maintains a decent floor due to his opportunity. He still has two more years of his rookie contract after this year, so there is safety in his role. The offense should improve moving forward as the pieces are there on offense outside of the quarterback. Over the last two weeks, we saw yards-per-carry improve to four or more, and Najee saw a season-high 20 carries.

KTC has him priced at a late first. This is in line with his value, as I have him at about 1.10. I would look to begin acquiring shares of him now. At worst, he’s a youngish depth piece and has also shown elite upside. Managers are certainly feeling the pain of his drop this year and may be willing to reload with a pick. There is also the element of the foot injury at play. If it is the injury that has held him back, we may see an uptick in performance later this year and a rebound next year.

Miles Sanders

Sanders sits in 18th place in PPG and is the 20th-ranked running back in dynasty. Sanders has benefited greatly from the improved Philly offense, with six touchdowns on the season. It isn’t just red zone touches that have kept his value high. He is putting up very strong efficiency numbers to boot. He has reached 3 YPC in every game this year. Hampered by the lack of receiving opportunities and the crowded backfield he shares, Sanders’ ceiling is lower than we would hope. He is in the last year of his contract and will be an unrestricted free agent next year. That uncertainty may hold back his dynasty upside as the landing spot will play an important role moving forward.

KTC has him priced at a very late first. I believe this is still higher than his value as an early second. It may be tough to acquire shares of him now. Sanders’ performance has pleased most managers to date. Coming off a terrible game for the entire Philly offense, his price has fallen a bit. His upcoming games should be much easier matchups, so it’s likely a good time to make a move if you are interested. His floor isn’t as consistent as other backs, so his price may swing a bit allowing for short buying opportunities.

Tony Pollard

Pollard sits one spot higher than Sanders in 17th place in PPG. He is the 21st-ranked running back in dynasty. Pollard has benefited of late from the Zeke injury, seeing 50%+ snap share over the last three weeks. He saw an 87% snap share last week, the most since week 15 of 2020. He remains a great handcuff, but the upside many believe he has may be limited.

It recently came out that Pollard may not have the ability to be a workhorse back. Cowboys running backs coach Skip Peete told reporters he feels “Pollard has around a 30-snap-per-game maximum because he becomes not quite as effective after that”. Pollard also told Peete that he “was done for the day” after a 54-yard touchdown run, later noting that he was joking when he made that comment.

Pollard is in the last year of his contract and will be an unrestricted free agent next year. That uncertainty can only increase his value as managers hope for a better landing spot or a true but unlikely lead-back takeover in Dallas. It is unclear whether Pollard can lead a backfield. It would seem odd that an NFL team with all their scouting and analytics, along with direct access to the player, would purposefully underutilize a back that has shown to be more efficient than the current lead back. So either the Cowboys are a poorly run team, or there is something else that the general fantasy player does not know. However, Week 10 saw Pollard with an astounding 87% snap share and a career-high 22 carries, up from a prior high of 14.

KTC has him priced at a mid-first. I believe this is much higher than his value as an early second. At this price, you are giving up a rookie RB2/3 which is way too high a price for a handcuff with potentially a 60/40 lead-back ceiling moving forward. If there was ever a time to sell high on Pollard, it’s now (or I guess last week since he’s now coming back down to Earth).

He is still young enough that all but an early rebuild team would be interested. He also makes a huge difference for a contending team, pending Zeke’s return. I also don’t think we will see his value go much higher, as I don’t see the case for Pollard becoming a true lead back, even if he finds another team next year. Najee, who is also a year younger, is priced slightly less and has already shown he can be the lead back. This is one of the more interesting debates in all of dynasty, and time will tell. But, if I had to bet, I would bet on what the team knows rather than what we, as fantasy managers, hope.

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