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Dynasty

Players on the Move – 12/19/22

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league, along with each starter’s back up for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Garrett Wilson

Wilson is the 25th receiver in PPG and the 12th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. This is a significant 10-spot jump over his initial 22nd dynasty wide receiver ranking coming into the year. He has four touchdowns on the season, coming in two batches in Weeks 2 and 12. He had a career-high 162 yards in Week 13 and had earned double-digit targets three times in his short career. His snap count slowly increased to the mid-90s by around Week 8, indicating that he is a focal point of the offense no matter who is at quarterback.

KTC has him priced at an early 1st plus an early second. I believe that is too high for his current $53 value. However, it’s possible his $53 value short-changes his current trajectory. In this case, I see more upside for Wilson and would be willing to pay that price on the belief that his value will continue to rise in the offseason. In either case, he has already beaten his rookie cost in year one alone, so you would be playing with house money at this point.

This may seem conflicting or confusing of a recommendation, so I will explain further. As the 22nd-ranked overall dynasty player, I expect this player to be worth about an early first. If we slide down a spot, we see Kelce at 23rd, who should be worth a similar price. The difference here is that Kelce’s value will only decline from this point forward, whereas Wilson’s has the potential to increase. Rookies come into the rankings undervalued by and large, which is why rebuilds succeed. The expected value of rookies is almost always higher than their rankings early on in their careers. KTC tends to price younger players at their potential rather than current value. For this reason, I believe Wilson is both overpriced and potentially undervalued at the same time.

Christian Watson

Watson is the 21st receiver in PPG and the 26th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. This is a significant 18-spot jump over his initial 44th dynasty WR ranking coming into the year. He has 8 touchdowns (one rushing) on the season, all coming in the last four weeks. Watson currently has 7 of 25 catches for TDs which is beyond unsustainable. There will certainly be touchdown regression in his future. He had a career-high 110 yards in Week 12 and has yet to see double-digit targets. His snap count shot up to the low-90s of late, indicating that he is now a clear cog in the offense.

KTC has him priced at an early-to-mid first. This makes sense as he has outperformed his rookie draft capital which had mid to later value. However, this is also too high for his current $23 value. However, it’s very possible his $23 value short-changes his current trajectory as well. In this case, I see more upside for Watson and would be willing to pay that price on the belief that his value will continue to rise in the offseason. He is still short of returning his rookie cost to date, so there is likely more room to run for him.

Alec Pierce

Pierce is the 69th receiver in PPG and the 49th dynasty-ranked wide receiver. This is a less significant 12-spot jump over his initial 61st dynasty WR ranking coming into the year. He has 2 touchdowns on the season with a career-high 86 yards in Week 13. Pierce has yet to see double-digit targets in his career. His snap count has trended up to the low-70s of late, indicating more ceiling available for him.

KTC has him priced at an early second. Similar to the others, this makes sense as he has outperformed or at least met his rookie draft capital. However, this is too high for his current $5 value. However, it’s possible his $5 value short-changes his current trajectory as well. In this case, I see more upside for Pierce and would be willing to pay that price on the belief that his value will continue to rise in the offseason. He is still short of returning his rookie cost to date, so there is likely more room to run for him.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Derrick Henry

Henry is the fourth running back in PPG and the 15th dynasty-ranked running back. He has 11 touchdowns on the season and nine weeks of 100+ combined yards. This included one 150+ yard performance and one 200+ yard performance. The guy remains unstoppable. He has even increased his receiving this year with three weeks of 5+ targets. The offense runs through King Henry, and only his health can hamper his output.

KTC has him priced at a mid-first. That is a touch high but not far off. If you can compete, that value is completely worth it. There will be a point in the not-too-distant future when Henry will no longer be putting up league-winning value, at which point his value will plummet. I would ride him into the ground or get out after this season if you can still manage a mid-first at that point.

Alvin Kamara

Kamara is the 21st running back in PPG and the 19th dynasty-ranked running back. He has only 3 touchdowns on the season, which all came in Week 8. He also has only four weeks of 100+ combined yards, way off his pace from last year, where he had 8 and missed four weeks of the season. Oddly, he had two weeks of 150+ yards, including one that was just short of 200. Kamara has been inconsistent, to say the least. It seems he does have nearly the upside of Henry but can’t string these games together. He is also suffering from massive touchdown regression; without these scores, he has become a mediocre aging back.

KTC has him priced at a very late first. This is fair value for him, if not even a bit underpriced. Kamara has a good stretch of matchups through the playoffs, so it’s possible his bad touchdown luck could flip. The one thing to be cautious of is the looming suspension next year. With this down year and lost time on the horizon, he would also be a target to unload early in the offseason if he holds his price point. I can see his value dropping by a third once this becomes fully priced in.

Antonio Gibson

Gibson is the 27th running back in PPG and the 26th dynasty-ranked running back. He has a respectable 5 touchdowns on the season. He also has only two weeks of 100+ combined yards, off his pace of 5 from last year. The issue for Gibson is snap share. With Robinson in the mix, the opportunities have fallen precipitously. He has only seen four games of 50%+ snaps, of which 2 of 4 were while Robinson was recovering from the shooting. Through Week 14, however, Gibson has seen an increase in higher value receiving targets. There were 51 targets to last year’s 38 to this point in the season.

KTC has him priced at an early second. I believe this is in line with his value, as I have him at about 2.02. I would look to begin acquiring shares of him now. At worst, he’s a youngish depth piece and has also shown elite upside. Managers are certainly feeling the pain of his drop this year and may be willing to reload with a pick. If anything should happen to Robinson, his opportunity should be greater than most other backups. If he finished the season in his current 19th PPR running back rank, that would be 3 top 20 finishes in his 3-year career. While his opportunity looks bad, his stats prove otherwise.

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