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Players on the Move – 3/3/23

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league, along with each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins finished as the 30th running back in PPG and is now the 19th dynasty-ranked running back. However, his PPG numbers are skewed down due to coming in and out of games with lingering injury issues. He only saw a high of 50% of the snaps, which occurred twice. After returning in Week 14 to finish the season, he posted two games with 100+ yards rushing but remains limited on touchdowns and receiving activity. He put up strong numbers against expectation beating by 1.6 fantasy ppg. Dobbins can return to being a solid contributor with a high floor and decent ceiling. With Gus still in the mix to steal goalline touches and Lamar’s uncertainty, there are many more questions than answers surrounding his fantasy viability in 2023.

KTC has him priced at a mid to late first. He is now overvalued in his off-season run-up in price. In looking ahead, much of his value is already priced in and will be determined by what happens with Lamar. If Lamar is dealt, his value should remain intact, assuming the position isn’t readdressed in the draft. He is now entering the last year of his rookie contract and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy was the 19th receiver in PPG and is now the 24th dynasty-ranked WR. He has been hurt by poor and inconsistent quarterback play this year after missing a fair amount of 2021 with an injury. However, in his last five games of the season, he saw a touch over 8 targets a game, 3 touchdowns, and two games over 100 yards. Jeudy beat his expectation by a whopping 2.45 fantasy ppg. A bet on Jeudy is also a bet on Russ returning to form under their new coaching staff. Jeudy will remain under contract through 2024. This may or may not be good for him, pending the Broncos’ offensive performance in 2023.

KTC has him priced at a mid-first. He is overvalued and should be in the very late first range. With flashes of his upside shown at the end of the season, Jeudy could become a solid performer moving forward. However, he is currently priced as such, limiting his value upside. This is more of a selling opportunity than a buy for value.

Cam Akers

Akers was the 37th running back in PPG and the 25th dynasty-ranked running back. What started as potentially the end of his career or at least the end of his time with the Rams, Akers burst back onto the scene unexpectedly in Week 13. He began taking over about 75% of the snap share and returning to his rookie form. Over that six-game stretch, he had 6 touchdowns and went over 100 all-purpose yards in each of his last four games. However, Akers failed to meet expectations, leaving .31 fantasy ppg on the table. Cam will enter the final year of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. It was also stated that McVay, who once wanted Akers out, now sees him as a key part of the 2023 season.

KTC has him priced at a very early second. This aligns with his value and provides variance to the upside. In looking ahead, it’s possible the Rams address the position in the draft, which will hurt his value. However, he could perform well this year, locking up that role or allowing him to take on a meaningful role elsewhere in 2024.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Stefon Diggs

Diggs finished fifth in PPG at receiver and now sits in ninth place in dynasty rankings. Diggs left a bad taste in owner’s mouths as Weeks 14-17 saw very poor play. He saw only 4.5 targets a game and no touchdowns over that span. Even with this subpar performance, he maintains an elite profile heading into 2023. At 29 years old, he is likely on the decline but should be able to maintain his status for two more seasons. He is locked in with Buffalo for the rest of his career. He beat his fantasy points expectation by .96, ensuring he hasn’t yet lost any efficiency.

KTC has him priced at an early first. This aligns with his value, and I would be willing to pay that price if I was competing. This could be a great opportunity to acquire him if the current owner was bounced from the playoffs due to his performance. Rookie picks are trading at near highs, so historically, this may be a good bet.

Joe Mixon

Mixon finished in ninth place in PPG and is the 17th-ranked running back in dynasty. He benefited from a large snap share but failed to put up high-end value outside of Week 9, where he scored five touchdowns. He was failing to meet expectations and was 1.88 fantasy ppg below expectation. On a touchdown-adjusted basis, he remains under expectation. PFF has him as a cut candidate. However, Spotrac shows his value is in line with his contract cost.

KTC has him priced at a late first. This is in line with his value. In this deeper 2023 class, moving him for 1.10 or better and resetting the clock is worth it. Of the older running backs, he seems to be in more of a decline than others. There is a strong chance Cincy will address the position. Even if they keep him as their backup, Perine is a year older than him.

Dalvin Cook

Dalvin Cook finished in 13th place in PPG and is the 20th-ranked running back in dynasty. He benefited from a very large snap share and failed to put up high-end value based on that workload. He failed to meet expectations and was 1.48 fantasy ppg below expectation. On a touchdown-adjusted basis, he remains neutral, however. Compared to Mixon, Cook has been much stronger against expectations over the last four years. Cook has a slightly more costly contract than Mixon and is also on the chopping block. It’s unlikely he will see this volume if moved, so his value could take a hit. Mattison is younger but is entering free agency and may be gone in 2023. If he leaves, they will likely address the position, and Cook could also see a decline in snaps in that scenario.

KTC has him priced at a late first as well. This is in line with his value. In this deeper 2023 class, it may be worth it to move him for 1.10 or better if you can and reset the clock. While a year older than Mixon, he has retained more efficiency and may be worth keeping, especially if he remains in Minnesota. There is too much uncertainty in this backfield to make an educated guess on his outlook for 2023 at this point.

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