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Players on the Move – 4/2/23

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-SF 12-team league, along with each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Jaylen Waddle

Waddle was the 13th receiver in PPG and is the fifth dynasty-ranked wide receiver. He massively overperformed his expectations beating his expected fantasy points by 2.6 points per game. He achieved an 82.6 PFF grade ranking 13th at the position.   

KTC has him priced at a mid-first and early second. He is heavily undervalued at this price, and would look to acquire him at that value. In looking ahead, he may become the alpha when Hill retires, assuming both remain in Miami. His rookie contract has him in Miami through 2024 with a team option that will likely be picked up, creating a three-year window there. However, there is some quarterback risk with Tua’s concussion history. With Waddle’s ability to make defenders miss on short passes and stretch the field, he is less quarterback-dependent than others at the position.

Garrett Wilson

(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

Wilson was the 31st receiver in PPG and is the sixth dynasty-ranked wide receiver. However, he underperformed his expectations by .8 points per game. Some of this was due to a lack of scoring opportunities, as he overperformed by .3 points when isolating to non-scoring values. This provides some additional hope if Rodgers makes his way to the Jets. He achieved an 82.7 PFF grade, ranking 12th at the position.   

KTC has him priced at two mid-firsts. He is overvalued at this cost. To be ahead of Waddle seems way out of line as well. The year-and-a-half age gap is minimal, and the production is skewed heavily in Waddle’s favor. Not beating expectations leads me to believe he is earning his targets but may, in addition, be forced targets due to Elijah Moore’s poor performance and a lack of other receivers around him. Even with Rodgers moving to the Jets, Rodgers’ age will likely impact his play, leaving the Jets needing to readdress quarterback again. While Wilson had a great rookie season, the numbers behind the stat lines may indicate it wasn’t as strong as the market perceives it to be. If you can get him for mid-first and 1.12 or an early second, that would be worth considering.

Chris Olave

Olave was the 25th receiver in PPG and is the ninth dynasty-ranked wide receiver. He remained in line with his expectations, beating by .2 points per game. He achieved an 82.5 PFF grade ranking 14th at the position. With David Carr at the helm now, there is the possibility for a slight upgrade in performance in 2023.

KTC has him priced at a mid-first and early second. He is underpriced at this cost. I would much rather have him at this price than Wilson at the much higher price. Getting young receivers after a successful rookie season will be tough. Going off as a mid-first in the draft, an early second is not an expensive add after seeing his production.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Javonte Williams

Javonte finished in 43rd place in PPG, which can be ignored as he was still in a timeshare, likely on his way to becoming the lead back before his injury. He has fallen to the 10th-ranked running back in dynasty after his injury. Javonte still has two more years of his rookie contract, so there is still safety in his role. However, he likely won’t return for the start of the season, so a strong finish will be needed to keep his value high.

He was right at expectation in his rookie season, but on the limited sample in 2023 underperformed by 6 points per game or 1 point on a non-scoring adjusted scale. His PFF grade also fell from a solid 75.9 in 2021 to 64.5 in 2022. The offense should improve, as they likely can’t get worse. With Sean Payton now the new head coach, there is hope the offense can improve in 2023.

KTC has him priced at a mid-first. This is in line with his current value but deeply undervaluing his upside. Prior to his injury, he was a top-five back and could return to near that peak if he can rebound this season. I am interested in him at this cost. There have been many examples of backs having their value cut in half during an injury only to return close to their previous level shortly after returning from injury. With no strong second running back on the Broncos, there is a chance for him to return to an outsized role.

D’Andre Swift

(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

Swift finished in 20th place in PPG, which included limited touches in the games he did play in due to injury. He is now the 14th-ranked running back in dynasty. The big story here is that David Montgomery has been brought in to replace Jamaal Williams. It is unclear who the lead back will be or if the snap share will be pretty even. In either case, Montgomery’s build will likely lead to him seeing more goalline carries than Swift. The Lion’s offense came out of nowhere to become the third-highest touchdown-scoring offense in the league. If that continues, there will be room for two startable backs.

Swift remains the more capable receiving back, allowing for a high ceiling even with limited touches. Swift has overperformed expectations each year, including by .5 points per game last year. In comparison, Montgomery beat by .4 last year but, over the same three-year stretch, is 1.2 PPG below Swift against expectations. PFF graded Swift at 78.1 versus Monty’s 67.9. These stats provide a case for Swift to remain the lead back in 2023.

KTC has him priced at a late first. This price undervalues him at his current value and also at his potential ceiling and value entering 2022. Like Javonte, Swift has been injured, and his price reflects that. Most managers are likely conflicted about what to do with him now. On the one hand, we have seen upside when healthy. But, the Lion’s bringing in Montgomery when we hoped the backfield would open up with Jamaal leaving seems to indicate a ceiling on Swift. He is now entering the last year of his rookie deal, so landing spot in 2024 will be crucial. With the large incoming running back class, he will need to overperform in 2023 if he hopes to secure a lead role in 2024.

Joe Mixon

Mixon finished ninth in PPG and is the 19th-ranked running back in dynasty. Against expectations, Mixon was short by a monstrous 1.9 points per game. Over the prior three years, he is down 1.1 PPG against expectation. However, PFF graded him at 80.8 and 13th overall. Cincy will likely address the position in the draft, as there is little help behind him on the depth chart. We are seeing his ability degrade, but he likely has another lead-back year ahead of him. I would expect his numbers to be higher on one of the better offenses in the league. Even failing to meet expectations, the volume supports a top finish in this offense.

KTC has him priced just over an early second. He is undervalued at this cost, and I would target him if I were in a competitive window. It may make sense to wait until after the draft, but he remains a cheap piece for production. With the 28th pick, Cincy won’t have a chance at Bijan without moving up. As such, it’s unlikely he will lose his role to a rookie in 2023. However, the biggest risk is that he may be cut, and an ideal landing spot in that scenario would be in jeopardy.

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