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Players on the Move – 6/30/23

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” non-Superflex 12-team league, along with each starter’s backup for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to further understand this system. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the % change in value for each player. All scoring discussions will utilize the full-point PPR format. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Most Notable Increases In Value

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence was the 8th quarterback in PPG and is the 6th dynasty-ranked quarterback. He massively improved in points against expectation in 2022, up to -.46 from -5.15. Taking scoring out of the equation, he actually touched into positive territory. He achieved a 77.4 PFF grade. He was the QB1 of his class and still looks to be in the driver’s seat. The question is just how valuable that is compared to others in the position.

KTC has him priced at an early to mid-first. He is heavily overvalued at this price and would not spend more than a late first. My system values quarterbacks less than the market. Looking at what you give up in a draft at that price, it seems high by most measures. He has added a lot of supporting cast and has a sneaky running upside. If you need a quarterback, there are cheaper plays you can likely make that will serve your team nicely.

Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers is coming into 2023 as the 33rd dynasty-ranked wide receiver. He was the 3rd WR off the board at pick 22, with all players going back to back from 20 to 23. He is fast and explosive, like Tyreke Hill. Lamar’s arm talent typically goes understated. He has lacked weapons over the last couple of years sans Mark Andrews. If his receiving core can stay healthy, we could see some surprising numbers from players like Flowers.

KTC has him priced at a little more than a late first. After coming off the board at around 1.06, he is likely priced too low. I doubt his actual price has fluctuated, but it may be worth a look. Note that rookies are typically undervalued in my system before the season. Their value is based on the high average of their top two seasons. I would value based on the current ADP rather than my guide until after the first year. He should have plenty of opportunity, with Baltimore likely opening up the passing game. Lamar is under a long-term deal at long last, and a new offensive coordinator is in.

Alexander Mattison

Mattison has seen significant snap share in only four games in his career. Those games were solid performances, and he is now the lead back in Minnesota after Dalvin Cook was let go. He has moved up to the 36th dynasty-ranked running back. Mattison remained in line with his expectations, beating by +.61 points per game. The number falls to -.22 when scoring is removed (yardage based only). He achieved a serviceable 71.3 PFF grade.

KTC has him priced at a late first to early second. He is properly priced at this cost. While my system has him lower, I assume there is still some catching up to do in the market. If his starter spot holds, he should deliver a ton of value over the next couple of seasons. I would much rather have him at this price than flyers on rookies at the end of the first round who may never get a chance to start. KTC has him priced near Rachaad White, who is still unproven and has performed below what Mattison has been able to do. Mattison is still young, so this could be a steal if he remains the lead back.

Top 3 Most Notable Decreases In Value

Rachaad White

White finished 25th in PPG, which can be largely ignored as he only saw four games of 50%+ snap share. He has risen to the 21st-ranked running back in dynasty as the potential lead back in 2023. White was way below expectation in his rookie season but on a limited sample. He underperformed by -1.03 points per game and, with scoring removed, still was below at -.66. His PFF grade also landed low at only 66.4. The offense may take a hit with Brady gone, which could be a better sign for the running game. However, if quarterback play falls drastically, he could be looking at a loaded box.

KTC has him priced at a late first to early second. This is slightly overvaluing him. He has the potential to shoot up the rankings if he can perform well. But as noted, he may find himself in a poor offense facing a stacked box. He has yet to really show much in the way of upside. At this point in the off-season, I wouldn’t want to risk the chance that he ends up back in a committee.

Dalvin Cook

Cook finished in 24th place in PPG, which underwhelmed in 2022. He is now the 26th-ranked running back in dynasty and finds himself looking for a team in the offseason after being let go by Minnesota. Cook underperformed expectations the last two years, including by -1.48 points per game in 2022. Removing scoring, his efficiency is neutral, however. PFF graded Cook at 67.4, way down from his career highs. These stats and his salary provided a case for the Vikings dropping him in favor of a much cheaper and potentially higher upside Mattison.

KTC has him priced at an early second. I believe this price fairly values him. He has the opportunity to find himself in a committee or emerge if there are some injuries in the offseason. While his numbers are down, he still can put up big numbers if the landing spot is decent enough.

Trey Lance

Lance was injured and out for the year by the second week of the season. He has now fallen to the 20th-ranked quarterback in dynasty. He was massively under expectation on that limited sample but was above expectation in 2021. PFF graded him at 59.9 in 2021 and down to 53.1 in 2022. These numbers are obviously very poor, showing that his career may be over before it started. He is basically off the radar in non-Superflex leagues but could have value as a reclamation project in Superflex leagues.

KTC has him priced at just over a late second. He is overvalued at this cost. You can find some young injury-away running backs or day-two receivers at that price point. He blends in and is a risky player currently. I wouldn’t invest this heavily in him for non-Superflex leagues.

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