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Players on the Move – 9/23/22

@thedynastyrobot is here to discuss the swings in values within the dynasty market

To keep our finger on the pulse of the dynasty community, I have included this week’s players with the most significant moves in value determined by consensus rankings. A value-above-replacement “Reserve” system derives player value. The system values a “start 9” 12-team league along with each starter’s back up for a total of the top 216 (18*12) players. See my previous article on how to value players to understand this system further. The below summaries show the new value in dollars, the change in value in dollars, and the percentage change in value for each player. Note that rankings become available each Friday. There is a natural lag in this data which will not include the player’s current week’s performance.

Top 3 Largest Gains with 8%+ increase in value

Stefon Diggs

It is tough for an older player to see this large of an increase in value. When you start the season as the WR1 in the most potent offense in the league, it seems to follow. Diggs is the top wide receiver in fantasy in any format two weeks into the season. In Week 2, Diggs went 12 for 15 with 148 yards and three touchdowns. While beyond impressive, that was only on 66% snap share as the starters were taken out early. And that was Diggs’ highest snap share of the season thus far.

The dynasty community is officially on notice. The biggest thing holding him back right now is the Bills’ tendency to blow teams out. While I don’t think these numbers are sustainable, it’s clear that Diggs has WR1 in his range of outcomes. His current price is high for a nearly 29-year-old, so that would be the only element of caution. It’s unclear how many productive seasons he has left, but if he can keep this up for two years, I think that is well worth his current price.

Jaylen Waddle

While less efficient than Diggs, Waddle went 11 for 19, totaling 171 yards and two touchdowns. With Tyreek Hill questionable to return due to cramps, Waddle became Tua’s go-to playmaker. Waddle now sits fifth in PPR at the position. Waddle has an excellent opportunity to be a target monster in the offense and has seen Tua step up his play. He should be able to keep his value high even with touchdown regression.

In his second year, it was clear this 13th overall finish at wide receiver last year was no fluke. Hill’s addition has seemingly not impacted his ability to put up big numbers. Doubly devastating, I watched my Ravens blow a 35-14 lead while also being up against Waddle and Diggs in one of my leagues, not to mention Lamar. At a price below Diggs and five years his junior, Waddle seems like a bargain in Dynasty formats.

Tyreek Hill

Switching to the other side of the receiving corp in Miami, we have Tyreek Hill. He went 11 for 13, totaling 190 yards and two touchdowns. If that stat line looks familiar, it is eerily so with Waddle. And he did this all while missing part of the game with cramps. When he went out in the third quarter, he only had six receptions for 48 yards. He then tacked on two late touchdowns and 142 yards on five receptions. This led to the receiver combo becoming the first in the Super Bowl era to reach 150 yards with two touchdowns in the same game.

At roughly the same age as Diggs, similar concerns arise. However, leaving Mahomes for Tua may not be the drop-off any of us had expected. His volume could go up in a less crowded receiver room. Two weeks into the season, Hill is fourth in PPR at the position, one spot above Waddle. At his price, he seems fairly valued. It would make sense if you could move from him to Waddle at a low enough price.

Bottom 3 Largest Losses with 8%+ decrease in value

CeeDee Lamb

Lamb has made the list two weeks in a row as his value continues to fall. He followed up the poor Week 1 performance with a solid 11 targets. Targets are the name of the game in fantasy for wide receivers. Collecting 7 of those targets for 75 yards is a solid showing, even without a score. Touchdowns will come, so I wouldn’t worry about remaining blanked on the year. Dak remains at last three weeks away, so Lamb’s value may continue to suffer until then.

Lamb’s main competition for targets in Schultz was lost in Week 2 due to a PCL strain and may not suit up for Week 3. Lamb should be in for another strong performance if that’s the case. His main competition for targets will be Noah Brown, who only saw five in Week 2. With last week’s performance, CeeDee has climbed from WR78 to WR44 in PPR leagues. This still trails Brown, who fell to 20th. There have been some panic trades made with CeeDee. Continue to test out your leaguemates to see if you can steal a deal.

Travis Etienne

Going into the season, Etienne’s value had been climbing to that of pre-injury levels. However, after two weeks, we are now seeing his value falling. I noted a few weeks back that he struggled somewhat in the preseason. That trend has continued into the season. Additionally, many thought James Robinson would hand over the job to Etienne. Whether this came through his prior Achilles injury or lack of draft capital, Etienne was poised to be the guy in Jacksonville.

Nonetheless, Robinson saw a 49% and 63% snap share to Etienne’s 51% and 37% in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. This left Robinson 8th in PPR at the position, with Etienne falling back to 37th after two weeks. While Etienne has flashed his abilities at times, we have also seen a crucial drop and fumble that was luckily recovered. It is early, and we still have plenty of reasons to be high on him. At $40, I am not convinced he is undervalued. Robinson is worth a look at a mere $7. However, his value is up 35% in the last week.

Derrick Henry

Henry came into the season as one of the top backs in redraft. As for dynasty, the question was who was willing to hold an elite running back at the age of 28. With his very slow start landing him 38th in PPR at the positions, he has fallen to a late 1st in value. Some managers may be panicking, making him a buying opportunity if you can get him for an early second. Other aging running backs have underperformed expectations as well. Ekeler is ranked only 14th in PPR due to limited touches, along with McCaffrey at 11th. I would not consider this a time sell low. We must hold the line and hope he can right the ship in Week 3.

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