Welcome to the Positional Matchups Report, aka POSAFPA. In this article, I provide an easy-to-use positional matchups table and highlight potentially exploitable matchups. If you’re curious about the process, you can find a full introduction at the link below, where I lay out the methodology.
https://www.dynastynerds.com/introduction-to-weekly-positional-matchups-posafpa
How to Use the Table
First, find YOUR PLAYER’S TEAM in the first column. Next, follow that line to THEIR POSITION’S column. That percentage is how much better or worse you can expect them to do compared to what they normally score.
Example: You’re deciding between DK Metcalf (WR-SEA) or Brian Robinson (RB-WAS). For DK Metcalf, find SEA in the first column. Follow that row over to the WR column, and you’ll see his positional matchup is 10%. That’s a moderately good positional matchup. Next, for Robinson, find WAS in the first column. Follow that row to the RB column, and you’ll see his matchup as -32%, which is a very negative matchup. Given that both players are averaging just over 14 PPR points per game, I would lean towards DK Metcalf.
Offensive Boons and Fades
Oddly enough, this week is easier in regards to players on bye than it was last week. But as always, there are still choices to be made. We have a handful of regular starters with tough matchups but plenty of flex options with desirable ones.
Joe Mixon has been underwhelming for fantasy this season and faces a very tough San Francisco defense. This week, you can’t rely on him as anything above a low-end RB2. Breece Hall is off snap counts and looked amazing in a cakewalk matchup last week, but he faces a tough Eagles run defense. He should also be considered more of an RB2 this week than a must-start. Terry McLaurin has been a bit up and down this season; this week’s outlook is on the low end. Washington is facing Atlanta, who allows 32% fewer fantasy points than average to receivers. If you’re looking at starting any of these players, you may want to put more high-variance players in flex to offset their negative outlooks.
On the flipside, Drake London may be in for another usable week. London had a slow start to the year and has had flex upside the past two weeks, and with a 23% matchup this week, he should be in consideration again. Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring issue but is coming off a bye week. So long as he gets a few full practices this week, I’d feel comfortable starting him. If he doesn’t, then Chris Godwin will be the primary benefactor of this favorable matchup. Matthew Stafford should be in consideration for starting as well. While he’s been underwhelming for fantasy so far, his positional matchups have been rough to start the year. This week, he gets Arizona, who has been giving up a whopping 59% of points over average to QBs.
IDP Boons and Fades
For IDP, linemen and linebackers facing Washington should be a priority. Expect big games from Nate Landman and Kaden Elliss. Atlanta doesn’t have any super-productive linemen this year, but David Onyemata could be used as a desperation play. Consider any of the linemen when setting rosters on the other side of that game. Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Chase Young, and Daron Payne are viable for starting lineups. Carolina DBs have juicy positional matchups in Miami, so Vonn Bell and Jeremy Chinn should be considered. Be warned, there is a risk that the Dolphins get so far ahead that Miami leans on the run early.
Notable Matchup
There’s one matchup worth highlighting, which is the Vikings-Bears game. There is a narrative that the Bears are a great team to target, which has not been wrong. However, their run defense has been allowing average production to RBs, and they get two starters of their secondary back this week. Jordan Addison and Alexander Mattison have been waiver and trade target darlings with the news of Justin Jefferson, but consider them a little risky. On the other side of the ball, the only receiver you can consider using is DJ Moore, and you can expect him to return to earth, given the Vikings’ pass defense is nowhere near as bad as Washington or Denver.
Team Trends for Future Weeks
Notable Rush Funnel Teams: Players facing Carolina, Houston, and Las Vegas have seen a disproportionate amount of fantasy points go to the run game. We can attribute this to these teams playing from behind often and opposing teams running out the clock once they reach a comfortable lead.
Pass Funnel Teams: Players lining up against Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington, and the LA Chargers could see a hefty amount of points through the air. These teams have been tougher on the run but giving up points in the passing game. It’s no surprise seeing several high-powered offenses on this list as opposing teams constantly play catch-up.
IDP Targets: Players facing Washington, Cleveland, and the NY Giants should be on your radar as they have all been susceptible to all IDP positions. Miami and Minnesota have been good targets for DBs, so get your streamers a week early if you have the bench space.
That’s a wrap for week six matchups. Now that we have five full weeks of data, we can expect things to remain relatively consistent moving forward, or at least until injuries start piling up. Follow me on Twitter @MonCalFF and check out our other Start-Sit articles, which can be found below. Until next week, good luck!
