Each week I will take a look at how some of the rookies performed and what impact that makes on their dynasty stock. I will look at the snap counts and if the player is being productive with the opportunity. What is the cost to acquire the player? Do I think the player will be productive going forward or just had a good week?
Let’s look at the Week 3 rookies.
Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh Steelers
Trailing 10-6 to start the second half against the New York Jets, the Kenny Pickett Era started. Pickett threw an interception on his first attempt- a 40-yard bomb to Chase Claypool. That did not phase him though, nor did the other two interceptions. Pickett seems to be the right guy at the right time for Pittsburgh. The question is whether Mike Tomlin will stick with the switch or go back to Trubisky. My guess is they stick with Pickett. He’ll be a high end QB3 with upside while he learns on the job.
Bailey Zappe, QB New England Patriots
We weren’t planning on this. With Mac Jones out with an ankle injury, it was time for veteran back-up Brian Hoyer to steer the ship. A Rashan Gary sack late in the first quarter knocked Hoyer out with a concussion. Zappe settled down and executed a conservative game plan. Zappe handled the situation as well as you could expect from a fourth-round developmental quarterback. For dynasty purposes Zappe is still a low ceiling, deep stash, break glass in case of emergency quarterback.
Isaih Pacheco, RB Kansas City Chiefs
11/63/0; 17 snaps (21%)
After disappearing in Week 3, Pacheco came back strong in Week 4. He flashed some of the sizzle that made him a training camp darling. Pacheco and McKinnon split the second team reps evenly behind CEH. Pacheco does not have a target on the season and it looks like his usage ticks up in positive game scripts. He seems destined for a committee and is a hold in dynasty.
Breece Hall, RB New York Jets
17/66/1 ru / 6/2/12/0 rec; 46 (66%)
Hall was the lead back in Week 4, out snapping Michael Carter 66% to 44%. The rushing production was save by the touchdown. Hall outpaced Carter 23 opportunities to 12 opportunities. One of the concerns was whether Hall would get target volume from the returning Zach Wilson. While it was not the double-digit numbers we saw from Flacco, the number was very positive. Week 4 looks like the Jets running back blueprint moving forward.
Tyler Allgeier, RB Atlanta Falcons
10/84/0 ru / 1/1/20/0 rec; 24 (44% )
Allgeier made the most of his playing time with Corderrelle Patterson banged up. He led the running backs in snaps, but split the touches evenly with Patterson (9) and Caleb Huntley (10). This is a situation to monitor.
Ken Walker, RB Seattle Seahawks
8/29/0 ru / 1/1/-5/0 rec; 25 (36%)
Week 4 was the Rashad Penny show. Walker was used as a change-of-pace back. If Penny stays healthy it could be a frustrating year for Walker managers. Walker has shown flashes, but patience will the play with Walker. I’d look for a frustrated owner and see if I can get at a discount. If you believe in Walker throw out a couple of seconds and see if you get a bite.
Dameon Pierce, RB Houston Texans
14/131/1 ru / 6/6/8/0 rec; 39 (68%)
Pierce led the way with 20 touches from the running back position. The cherry on top was a 75 yard touchdown run. He had more targets that Burkhead (32% snaps) and out touched him 20-5. I would look for this to be the split moving forward.
Rachaad White, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3/6/1 ru / 5/5/50/0 rec; 24 (38%)
Rachaad White scores his first NFL TD! #GoBucs— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2022
📺: #KCvsTB on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/o84hsBqv8I pic.twitter.com/oSc5WGFZXw
After playing sparingly through the first three weeks, Rachaad White played a season high 38% of the snaps in Week 4. Last week veteran running back Fournette told TampaBay.com, “I told them earlier, ‘Listen, we’re going to have to start sharing the snaps,’ because I know those guys practice all week or whatever the case may be,” he said. “I know they want to get their reps in but as my job, I’m trying to prolong my career and help them, get them some snaps and things like that. Their time is going to come, for sure.”
Drake London, WR Atlanta Falcons
7/2/17/0; 44 (80%)
Week 4 was a down week for London. The opportunities were there with 7 targets, but he was able to corral just 2 for 17 yards. London has established himself as the alpha wide receiver in Atlanta. The price for London is high and likely to keep rising.
Garrett Wilson, WR New York Jets
6/2/41/0 rec; 54 (77%)
Garrett Wilson was another rookie wide out that had good target volume but underwhelming fantasy production. It remains to be seen how the passing game shakes out now that Zach Wilson has returned from injury. The talent is there, so don’t worry about some rookie growing pains.
Jahan Dotson, WR Washington Commanders
4/3/43/1 rec; 44 (59%)
Week 4 brought another low-volume/good-production week for Dotson. A hamstring injury ended Dotson’s day a bit early. He may miss a week or two, but the injury is not believed to be long term. Dotson has a nose for the endzone and I expect his production to continue to rise.
Chris Olave, WR New Orleans Saints
7/4/67/1; 41 (68%)
Olave is the leading rookie wide receiver in the 2022 season. After back-to-back 13 target games, Olave had just seven targets in Week 4. He turned those 7 targets into 16.7 ppr points. Olave has proven to be a complete receiver in his short career.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
6/4/80/0; 29 (44%)
Pierce tied for the team lead in targets, but was still out snapped by Parris Campbell. Due to inconsistent offensive line and quarterback play 2022 is going to be a roller coaster for Pierce’s fantasy production. Pierce has a bright future and should form a formidable duo Michael Pittman. When the quarterback situation improves.
Treylon Burks, WR Tennessee Titans
1/4/0 ru / 3/2/14/0 rec; 35 (65%)
Burks exited the game against the Colts in the fourth quarter and is expected to miss some time. Burks was leading the wide receivers in snaps so it was a matter of time before it translated to fantasy production. With a few weeks of rehab time on the horizon, this is the time for believers to make a deal.
George Pickens, WR Pittsburgh Steelers
8/6/102/0; 45 (70%)
Last week it was the circus catch. This week it is a 100-yard game. Pickens is coming on fast. Pickens developed chemistry with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett in preseason. That chemistry was on full display when Pickett took over for Mitch Trubisky in the second half vs. the Jets. There will be growing pains, but it should be a great ride. The price to acquire Pickens is likely to rise fast.
According to PFF Kenny Pickett targeted Pickens on 33.3% of his routes which was an improvement of almost 20% with Trubisky. Pickett should also push the ball vertical which plays into Pickens strengths as a receiver. Could be a steal in your leagues. pic.twitter.com/27uJwF7TtN— Kevin (@Daboys_22) October 3, 2022
Chigizem Okonkwo, TE Tennessee Titans
3/3/38/1; 13 (24%)
Okonkwo has been playing about 15 snaps per game. That isn’t the opportunity share that will provide sustainable fantasy value. What Chigi does provide is a great athletic profile. It may take a couple of years for him to develop, but that is what taxi squads are for. See if you can get Okonkwo as a throw-in on a larger deal as you build your dynasty roster.