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Slant Pattern: WR Start/Sit – Week 11

Is Tank Dell for real? Or will Nico Collins hurt his production? Check out this week’s Slant Pattern where @THEtristancook breaks down your WR start/sit decisions!

Hello and welcome back, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. I will be doing the WR starts and sits for the 2023 season! We, as a group, will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow, DM, and Tweet us.

We look forward to hearing from you!

QB: Mike Hicks (@dropthemikeff) – Changing the Call

RB: Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks) – The Cutback

WR: Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook) – Slant Pattern

TE: Steven Pintado (@CoachStevenP) – 12 Formation

FLEX: Evan Brown (@FFEVanlution) – Flex on ‘Em

IDP: Jon Glosser (@Glosser13) – IDP Start/Sit

One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions, it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. The players listed below are WRs that I expect to finish above/below their respective rankings. But it doesn’t mean you need to take them out of (or put them into) your lineup unless your alternatives are worth it.

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

RECAP

Before we get into the recap of last week’s picks, let’s go over how I determine the success and failure of my picks:

  1. Regardless of whether I have a player listed as a start or sit, if they get injured during the game where it significantly impacts their fantasy output, it is ruled a no decision based upon injury.
  2. If a player finishes within a handful of spots of their ranking, either above or below, it is considered a push. 
  3. My goal is always to get all my picks correct. 

However, I consider above 50% a moderately successful week. Let’s get to it.

Last week was a pretty average week for my calls. Of my six picks, three were ‘hits,’ two were ‘pushes,’ and one was a ‘miss.’ My best call was to ‘sit’ DeAndre Hopkins, who finished the week as WR56. My worst call was to ‘start’ Amari Cooper. He finished a handful of spots above his ranking at WR18. This week has some interesting matchups, so let’s get to it.

START

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos – WR 36

Week 10 Stats | WR 59 | FPts: 6.5 | Tgts: 3 | Rec: 3 | Yds: 35 | TDs: 0

INGLEWOOD, CA – DECEMBER 25: Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (10) during the NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams on December 25, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire)

My first ‘start’ of Week 11 is Jerry Jeudy. He is coming off a disappointing game in the Broncos upset victory over Buffalo. He caught all of his targets but only received 3 targets in that contest. Jeudy’s 3 targets last week were a season-low and is not something I anticipate recurring.

This week, he faces a porous Minnesota pass defense that has been routinely exploited. Furthermore, Minnesota has a top-10 rush defense, so Denver should deploy a heavier pass-oriented attack. Jerry Jeudy hasn’t been a reliable option this year, but I expect him to finish above his WR36 ranking.

Calvin Ridley, Jaguars – WR 29

Week 10 Stats | WR 67 | FPts: 4.0 | Tgts: 3 | Rec: 2 | Yds: 20 | TDs: 0

Calvin Ridley is my second ‘start’ of the week. Similar to Jeudy, Ridley is coming off one of his worst weeks of the season. He was also targeted three times but only managed to haul in two of them for 20 yards. Again, I normally would not be interested in starting a player who is targeted that infrequently. However, I think this game was more of an outlier than what should be expected going forward. Ridley had received at least 7 targets in all but two of Jackonville’s games before last week. He has been and should continue to be an integral part of the offense. I’m starting him with confidence this week.

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers – WR 28

Week 10 Stats | WR 37 | FPts: 9.4 | Tgts: 6 | Rec: 4 | Yds: 54 | TDs: 0

My third ‘start’ this week is Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin. He had an unspectacular game in Week 10, only catching 4 passes for 54 yards. Unlike my previous two ‘starts,’ Godwin saw a solid number of targets last week. Unfortunately, he didn’t do too much with those targets.

Tampa Bay faces off against the 49ers this week. San Francisco has one of the best rush defenses in the entire league, allowing only 83.1 yards on the ground per game through ten weeks. They have a serviceable pass defense, but because they are so strong against the rush, the way to attack them is through the air. Additionally, Mike Evans has been dealing with an injury and may not play. Even if Evans does suit up, I feel confident that Godwin will have a strong week.

Nico Collins, Texans – WR 26

Week 10 Stats | WR x | FPts: x.x | Tgts: x | Rec: x | Yds: x | TDs: x (DNP)

My next ‘start’ for Week 11 is Nico Collins. He is slated to return to the field this week for Houston. Before he was injured, Collins was becoming more and more of a focal point for the Texans. One of the biggest surprises of the season has been how potent the Houston offense is. 

This week’s matchup with Arizona is favorable for the Texans’ passing attack. And, with Dameon Pierce slated to miss the game, CJ Stroud should be throwing early and often. I expect Collins to finish well above his WR26 ranking.

DeAndre Hopkins, Titans – WR 21

Week 10 Stats | WR 56 | FPts: 5.7 | Tgts: 9 | Rec: 3 | Yds: 27 | TDs: 0

PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 02: Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) runs with the ball during the regular season NFL football game between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers on November 02, 2023 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

My final ‘start’ is DeAndre Hopkins. He struggled last week with Will Levis throwing the ball, only hauling in 3 of his 9 targets for a measly 27 yards. However, despite having a disappointing stat line, the encouraging sign was that Levis was looking to get Hopkins the ball often.

This week, the Titans play the Jacksonville Jaguars, who allow the second-most passing yards per game in the entire league. With another week of practice with Levis under center, I expect to see a catch rate that is much higher than 33%. If you have Hopkins and have been relying on him, you can start him with confidence this week.

SIT

Tank Dell, Texans – WR 14

Week 10 Stats | WR 12 | FPts: 18.9 | Tgts: 14 | Rec: 6 | Yds: 56 | TDs: 1 

My only ‘sit’ for the week is the other receiver for the Texans, Tank Dell. It may be a little counterintuitive to have Dell as a ‘sit’ after having Collins as a ‘start.’ However, this is primarily due to his WR14 ranking. Dell has been on fire over the last two weeks, catching 12 passes on 25 targets for 170 yards and 3 scores. However, with the return of the aforementioned Nico Collins, I don’t think that he will receive as heavy of a target share. If you have Dell on your roster, you probably are not going to have any better options, but you should adjust your expectations.

That’s it for Week 11. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@THEtristancook) if you have any specific questions about who I would start. 

Are you interested in joining the #NerdHerd? Use the code “tcook” for 15% off any membership. Sign up here and get an edge on all of your league mates today! You can get access to the DynastyGM tool (including our Trade Calculator and new Trade Finder), the Prospect Film Room, an extra weekly podcast, full rankings, and much, much more!

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