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Slant Pattern: WR Start/Sit – Week 4

Should you bench Garrett Wilson with the bad QB play in New York or can he Shake It Off? @THEtristancook is to help in Week 4!

Hello and welcome back, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. I will be doing the WR starts and sits for the 2023 season! We, as a group, will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow, DM, and Tweet us.

We look forward to hearing from you!

QB: Mike Hicks (@dropthemikeff) – Changing the Call

RB: Jake Oliver (@DarthDbacks) – The Cutback

WR: Tristan Cook (@THEtristancook) – Slant Pattern

TE: Steven Pintado (@CoachStevenP) – 12 Formation

FLEX: Evan Brown (@FFEVanlution) – Flex on ‘Em

IDP: Jon Glosser (@Glosser13) – IDP Start/Sit

One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions, it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. The players listed below are WRs that I expect to finish above/below their respective rankings. But it doesn’t mean you need to take them out of (or put them into) your lineup unless your alternatives are worth it.

NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.

RECAP

Before we get into the recap of last week’s picks, let’s go over how I determine the success and failure of my picks:

  1. Regardless of whether I have a player listed as a start or sit, if they get injured during the game where it significantly impacts their fantasy output, it is ruled a no decision based upon injury.
  2. If a player finishes within a handful of spots of their ranking, either above or below, it is considered a push.
  3. My goal is always to get all my picks correct.

I consider above 50% a moderately successful week. Let’s get to it.

Well, this was a step backward for my picks. I made six picks in Week 3; four were ‘pushes.’ DJ Moore, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jerry Jeudy finished within a few spots of their rankings. That leaves George Pickens and DeAndre Hopkins as my two remaining calls from Week 3. I had Hopkins listed as a ‘sit,’ which was a good call. He finished as WR61 on the week with 3 catches for 48 yards. I had George Pickens as a ‘start’ this past week. Unfortunately, Pickens fell short of his WR23 ranking. He caught 4 passes for 75 yards on 6 targets. It was good enough to finish as the WR37 of the week. I’ll have to do better than that going forward, so let’s get to the picks.

START

Christian Kirk, Jaguars – WR 24

Week 3 Stats | WR 25 | FPts: 15.4 | Tgts: 6 | Rec: 4 | Yds: 54 | TDs: 2

To kick things off, I have Christian Kirk as my first ‘start’ for Week 3. He started the season with a dud of a performance in Week 1 against the Colts but has come back strong since. Over the last two weeks, Kirk has been targeted 20 times, hauling in 15 of those targets for 164 yards and one score.

The Jaguars face off with the Atlanta Falcons this week, who have been a relatively solid pass defense this season. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars are a top-10 team in passing attempts per game. I expect Trevor Lawrence to throw early and often. Kirk’s performance in Week 1 was an outlier, and I expect him to be heavily used in this offense.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos – WR 31

Week 3 Stats | WR 13 | FPts: 19.1 | Tgts: 11 | Rec: 8 | Yds: 91 | TDs: 1

DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 17: Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton tries to haul in a pass during a NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos on October 17, 2021 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. (Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire)

My second ‘start’ this week is Courtland Sutton. Sutton had an up-and-down game last week in which he caught 8 of his 11 targets for 91 yards and a score. However, he also lost two fumbles. Sutton’s fumbles weren’t the only disappointing parts of the Week 3 game for Denver.

The Broncos are coming off a historically bad performance last week against the Dolphins. However, they thankfully get to play the Chicago Bears this week. Chicago has been one of the worst teams against the pass through three games. Courtland Sutton appears to be Russell Wilson’s favorite target, as he has seen an increase in targets in the first three games. I don’t expect 11 targets every game, but I think Sutton should see a heavy target share again and should be in your lineup.

Adam Thielen, Panthers – WR 32

Week 3 Stats | WR 3 | FPts: 31.5 | Tgts: 14 | Rec: 11 | Yds: 145 | TDs: 1

My final ‘start’ for this week is Adam Thielen. It does appear that Bryce Young is set to return to the lineup for the Panthers. That is a good thing for the Panthers as an organization, but it actually is a bit of a ding for Adam Thielen’s fantasy output. We saw Thielen be targeted 14 times last week, hauling in 11 of them for 145 yards receiving and a score. While I believe that Andy Dalton is a better option at this point for the fantasy success of Adam Thielen, I still believe that Thielen is a good play this week. 

This mainly has to do with the opponent. The Minnesota Vikings allow the third-most yards through the air in the NFC this season at 261.7 per game. They are a better team against the run, so I expect the Panthers to throw to move the ball. Additionally, Thielen was targeted 9 times by Bryce Young in his last start, so we’ve seen it happen. I would happily start Thielen over any of the players on my ‘sit’ list.

SIT

Tank Dell, Texans – WR 33

Week 3 Stats | WR 7 | FPts: 25.5 | Tgts: 7 | Rec: 5 | Yds: 145 | TDs: 1

HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 17: Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) looks for running room in the flat after a short reception during the football game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on September 17, 2023, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire)

Rookie receiver Tank Dell is my first ‘sit’ for Week 4. He had the best game of his young career last week against Jacksonville. Dell hauled in 5 of his 7 targets, including a 68-yard score. He is coming off back-to-back strong performances, but I am pumping the brakes. Dell has been exciting to watch, but I am not ready to plug him into my lineup just yet.

The Texans will face their toughest test of the season this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better than both of the last two opponents that Houston has faced. Additionally, the Steelers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. I expect fewer pass attempts in this game, which is my leading cause for concern. I think you likely have better options than Dell in Week 4.

Jakobi Meyers, Raiders – WR 22

Week 3 Stats | WR 24 | FPts: 15.5 | Tgts: 12 | Rec: 7 | Yds: 85 | TDs: 0

My next ‘sit’ is Jakobi Meyers. There is one main reason for my concern. Jimmy Garoppolo is still in the concussion protocol, and there have been rumblings that he will miss this game. If Jimmy misses this game, there is no way that you can trust Jakobi Meyers or really any Raider not named Davante Adams. This game is an afternoon game kickoff, so you may need to decide before finding out if Garoppolo will play. If Jimmy does play, I think Meyers could be a serviceable option, but I still expect him to finish below his WR22 ranking. Either way, I’m getting Meyers out of my lineup against the Chargers. 

Garrett Wilson, Jets – WR 26

Week 3 Stats | WR 48 | FPts: 9.8 | Tgts: 9 | Rec: 5 | Yds: 48 | TDs: 0

Garrett Wilson is my last ‘sit’ this week. Like my previous sit, this is mostly due to the quarterback situation. As long as Zach Wilson is taking snaps under center, I don’t think you can trust any Jets pass catchers. The betting line for Zach Wilson’s passing yardage is 172.5 yards. With the expected yardage that low, I don’t know how you can expect Garrett to perform. If you had Garrett Wilson last year, this is a situation you know all too well. We know he has plenty of talent, but the quarterback play has been so bad that you must look elsewhere. We even saw a little bit of bad blood on the sideline last week between the two. 

Additionally, the Chiefs have been one of the best pass defenses in yards allowed per game. Kansas City allows 178 yards passing per game, the 6th best in the league. The only thing that will be exciting for Jets fans is if the rumors are true and Taylor Swift shows up at the game.

That’s it for Week 3. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@THEtristancook) if you have any specific questions about who I would start. 

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