Hello and welcome back, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. I will be doing the WR starts and sits for the 2023 season! We, as a group, will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow, DM, and Tweet us.
We look forward to hearing from you!
One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions, it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. The players listed below are WRs that I expect to finish above/below their respective rankings. But it doesn’t mean you need to take them out of (or put them into) your lineup unless your alternatives are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
Before we get into the recap of last week’s picks, let’s go over how I determine the success and failure of my picks:
- Regardless of whether I have a player listed as a start or sit, if they get injured during the game where it significantly impacts their fantasy output, it is ruled a no decision based upon injury.
- If a player finishes within a handful of spots of their ranking, either above or below, it is considered a push.
- My goal is always to get all my picks correct.
However, I consider above 50% a moderately successful week. Let’s get to it.
After a mediocre Week 3, I had a strong showing last week with my picks. Of my six calls, I had four ‘hits’ and two ‘pushes.’ More specifically, I had Christian Kirk, Adam Thielen, and Courtland Sutton as ‘starts.’ Kirk and Thielen finished 8 and 12 spots above their respective weekly rankings. Sutton finished as WR33, two spots below his ranking, and therefore is listed as a ‘push.’
For my ‘sits,’ I had Tank Dell, Jakobi Meyers, and Garrett Wilson. Similarly to my ‘starts,’ I had two ‘hits’ and one ‘push.’ Tank Dell was ranked at WR33 and finished at WR82. Meyers was ranked at WR22 but finished at WR69. Garrett Wilson finished two spots above his ranking and was, therefore, a ‘push.’ Time to get to this week’s picks.
Jordan Addison, Vikings – WR 33
Week 4 Stats | WR 125 | FPts: 0.0 | Tgts: 1 | Rec: 0 | Yds: 0 | TDs: 0
To kick off the week, I have Jordan Addison as a ‘start.’ You might wonder why I’d recommend starting a player coming off a 1-target, 0-catch game. Normally, I wouldn’t advocate for a player who just put up such a stinker of a performance. However, there’s always an exception to the rule. Enter Jordan Addison.
Before last week, the rookie wideout was targeted an average of 6.3 times per game through the first three games. He had been a regular part of the offense but was inexplicably ignored last week. I think that’s going to change this week. The main reason is that the Vikings face off against the Chiefs this week. I expect the Vikings to throw early and often to keep up with Kansas City. That should provide several more targets for Addison. I’m getting Jordan Addison in my lineup if I have him.
Garrett Wilson, Jets – WR 21
Week 4 Stats | WR 23 | FPts: 15.0 | Tgts: 14 | Rec: 9 | Yds: 60 | TDs: 0
Garrett Wilson is my next ‘start’ this week. He surprised me last week on Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs. Garrett Wilson received a massive 14 targets in that game. It isn’t exactly ideal that it took 14 targets to get Garrett Wilson to hit the 60-yard receiving mark. However, whenever we have a player getting peppered with targets, their scoring floor becomes quite high.
I’m unsure if Garrett Wilson will get 14 targets again this week, but he shouldn’t need that many to be fantasy-relevant. The Jets play Denver this week, who have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league. I expect Garret Wilson to play well and outperform this WR21 ranking.
Romeo Doubs, Packers – WR 32
Week 4 Stats | WR 11 | FPts: 18.5 | Tgts: 13 | Rec: 9 | Yds: 95 | TDs: 0
My final ‘start’ for this week is Romeo Doubs. Like Garrett Wilson, Doubs was heavily targeted last week. In fact, Doubs has seen 25 targets over his last two games. That is the kind of situation that I will routinely want to target. On top of a heavy target share, Doubs has turned those targets into fantasy points by putting up back-to-back strong outings.
This week, the Packers face off with the Raiders. Oakland hasn’t been particularly strong against the pass this year. We have seen Jordan Love and Romeo Doubs develop a strong connection, and I expect that to continue. You should feel good having Doubs in your lineup.
Puka Nacua, Rams – WR 11
Week 4 Stats | WR 4 | FPts: 31.1 | Tgts: 10 | Rec: 9 | Yds: 163 | TDs: 1
My first ‘sit’ for Week 5 is Puka Nacua. He has been a dynasty-darling so far in 2023. However, I think that things are about to change dramatically. The word on the street is that Cooper Kupp is set to make his season debut for the Rams. This ‘sit’ rides almost entirely on that taking place. Nacua has been a pleasant surprise for anyone with him, but it wouldn’t have occurred if not for the injury to Kupp.
Now, with Kupp likely set to return to the lineup, I expect him to regain the role as the focal point of the offense. It’s not to say that Puka Nacua won’t be involved, but it will be as a complimentary option rather than a target-hog. If Kupp sits, I would feel much better about Nacua, but the Eagles are a tough matchup. If you have Puka, it’s time to bench him or dampen your expectations.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos – WR 30
Week 4 Stats | WR 33 | FPts: 11.7 | Tgts: 5 | Rec: 3 | Yds: 60 | TDs: 1
My next ‘sit’ is Courtland Sutton. He had a disappointing game last week in Denver’s comeback victory over the Bears. In a game where Denver was trailing and throwing regularly, Sutton only received five targets. If you started him (as I recommended), you were saved by his late touchdown reception.
I am getting Sutton out of my lineups this week, and I recommend you do the same. Denver is playing the Jets this week, so Sutton will be lined up against Sauce Gardner for most of the game. I am staying away from that if at all possible. Denver’s offense hasn’t been bad this year, but they haven’t been matchup-proof.
Chris Olave, Saints – WR 9
Week 4 Stats | WR 118 | FPts: 1.4 | Tgts: 6 | Rec: 1 | Yds: 4 | TDs: 0
Chris Olave is my third and final ‘sit’ for the week. Olave had a rough week against the Bucs, catching only one of his six targets for a measly four yards. I don’t expect him to have THAT bad of a week, but I am looking at my other options this week. The Saints are traveling northeast to Foxborough to play Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been bad this year, but we can always count on Belichick to have a solid defense and game plan to take away his opponent’s best weapon. I think that means another long and frustrating day for Chris Olave. You may not have many better options, but I’d play any of my ‘starts’ over Olave this week.
That’s it for Week 5. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@THEtristancook) if you have any specific questions about who I would start.
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