Hello and welcome back, Nerds! The Dynasty Nerds writers are here to provide you with weekly starts and sits. I will be doing the WR starts and sits for the 2023 season! We, as a group, will be making our recommendations based on weekly consensus PPR rankings from FantasyPros. Here is our squad and the position groups they will be covering to help you each week. Follow, DM, and Tweet us.
We look forward to hearing from you!
One thing to keep in mind when making your start/sit decisions, it will ALWAYS depend on who your other options are. The players listed below are WRs that I expect to finish above/below their respective rankings. But it doesn’t mean you need to take them out of (or put them into) your lineup unless your alternatives are worth it.
NOTE: Rankings are based on a 12-team PPR league. So, saying WR2 means top 24, or TE1 means top 12, etc., and are pulled from Fantasy Pros consensus expert rankings.
Before we get into the recap of last week’s picks, let’s go over how I determine the success and failure of my picks:
- Regardless of whether I have a player listed as a start or sit, if they get injured during the game where it significantly impacts their fantasy output, it is ruled a no decision based upon injury.
- If a player finishes within a handful of spots of their ranking, either above or below, it is considered a push.
- My goal is always to get all my picks correct.
However, I consider above 50% a moderately successful week. Let’s get to it.
Week 5 was a solid but unspectacular week for my picks. On the positive side, my ‘hits’ were Jordan Addison as a ‘start’ with Courtland Sutton and Chris Olave as ‘sits.’ My bad calls were Romeo Doubs and Garrett Wilson as ‘starts.’ My final call was having Puka Nacua as a ‘sit.’ He technically was a ‘push’ because he finished exactly where he was ranked. However, I thought he would be far less utilized than he was, and he finished as a top-12 WR for the week. So, calling that anything but a ‘miss’ isn’t fair. That puts us at exactly 50% for Week 5. Here’s to hoping this week is better. Let’s get to it.
Jordan Addison, Vikings – WR 24
Week 5 Stats | WR 15 | FPts: 18.4 | Tgts: 9 | Rec: 6 | Yds: 64 | TDs: 1
To kick off the week, I again have Jordan Addison as a ‘start.’ He was one of my best calls last week after his disappointing Week 4 performance. Addison was tied for the team lead with 9 targets against Kansas City. Not only was he heavily targeted, but he also converted those opportunities into a high-end WR2 day. Normally, I wouldn’t suggest chasing points after a good week from a player who hasn’t been consistent, but the injury to Justin Jefferson changes everything.
Without Jefferson on the field, I expect this kind of workload/target share to continue for Addison. I don’t expect him to produce at the same level we saw from Jefferson, but the time for Addison to show why he was a first-round draft pick is now. He also gets the worst pass defense in the NFL this week as the Vikings take on the Chicago Bears. My only concern in this game is the potential for bad weather and how that might impact the passing game. I still plan to play Addison regardless of the weather, but his ceiling might be a bit capped.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars – WR 23
Week 5 Stats | WR 21 | FPts: 11.4 | Tgts: 8 | Rec: 6 | Yds: 75 | TDs: 0
My next’ start’ this week is Christian Kirk. He has once again been a reliable weekly option with the upside of WR1 numbers on any given week. Since his abysmal Week 1 performance, Kirk has had either 75 yards receiving or a touchdown every week. He has averaged 10 targets each game with an average weekly finish of WR19.
The best part about Christian Kirk is that he has an extremely high floor for weekly production. You can almost guarantee that he will get you a 6-catch, 60-yard game every week. But this week, the Jags take on the Indianapolis Colts, who trail only the Chicago Bears in passing yards allowed in 2023. I am expecting this to be a big week for Kirk. Start him with confidence.
Chris Godwin, Bucs – WR 20
Week 5 Stats | WR x | FPts: x.x | Tgts: x | Rec: x | Yds: x | TDs: x (BYE WEEK)
Chris Godwin is my final ‘start’ for the week. He struggled a bit to start the season but had a very promising game in Week 4 against the Saints prior to last week’s BYE. Godwin caught 8 of his 11 targets and racked up 114 yards receiving. We weren’t sure what to expect from this Tampa Bay offense with Baker Mayfield under center, but Baker has played quite well.
The Bucs host the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions have looked very strong this season, particularly against the run. So, while Detroit’s pass defense is roughly average, the way to attack them is still through the air. The Lions allow only 68.4 yards on the ground per game, which is the third-best in the NFL. Tampa has also proven to be a much better passing offense than a rushing one. Additionally, Mike Evans is expected to be fully healthy for this game, but coming off a hamstring injury is always a little bit dicey. I am firing up Godwin with plenty of confidence.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles – WR 18
Week 5 Stats | WR 98 | FPts: 1.6 | Tgts: 5 | Rec: 1 | Yds: 6 | TDs: 0
My first ‘sit’ for Week 6 is DeVonta Smith. He is coming off an awful game in Los Angeles against the Rams, where he only hauled in one pass for 6 yards. We’ve seen both the good and bad sides of DeVonta this season. He started with two back-to-back strong games, finishing as the WR17 and WR10 respectively. However, in his last three games, Smith has combined for 12 catches, 112 yards receiving, and zero scores. Most of that came on a 7-catch, 78-yard performance in Week 4.
Unfortunately, I am expecting another disappointing week for DeVonta. The Jets have a solid secondary, and because Sauce Gardner stays on one side of the field, he will spend a good chunk of the game covering DeVonta. Furthermore, the Jets have the 4th-worst rush defense in the NFL. I expect to see Philadelphia run the ball early and often. Smith always has the potential to beat a defense over the top and make me look bad for sitting him, but I’m looking elsewhere this week.
Garrett Wilson, Jets – WR 30
Week 5 Stats | WR 46 | FPts: 8.4 | Tgts: 7 | Rec: 3 | Yds: 54 | TDs: 0
Staying in the same game, Garrett Wilson is my next ‘sit’ on the week. He burnt me last week when I had him as a ‘start,’ and I probably should have known better. It took him 14 targets to be a low-end WR2 in Week 4, and that heavy workload is just not sustainable in the NFL. I am back to utilizing Garrett Wilson only when I have no better options. And this week, I think you have better options.
Defensively, the Eagles are the opposite of the Jets. They are a slightly below-average pass defense but are the best rush defense in the NFL. Typically, I would target WRs in this situation. However, the Jets offense is not typical. Trusting Zach Wilson to be anything close to consistent is a risky endeavor and one that I will look to avoid taking.
Gabe Davis, Bills – WR 34
Week 5 Stats | WR 7 | FPts: 22.0 | Tgts: 8 | Rec: 6 | Yds: 100 | TDs: 1
My final ‘sit’ this week is Gabe Davis. I’m still not a believer in Gabe Davis, the reliable fantasy starter. He’s been a great weapon for Josh Allen and the Bills offense. But he’s been all over the place in terms of production for your fantasy teams. Last week, he put up nice numbers (6 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD), but I don’t expect that to repeat here in Week 6.
My main concerns with Gabe Davis are his ability to disappear in the offense, his unsustainable touchdown rate, and the fact that the Bills are playing a Daniel Jones-less Giants team. The G-Men have looked rough this season with Jones on the field, but this game could get ugly quick. But, more importantly, Gabe Davis is still scoring at a ridiculous rate. He’s scoring on 22.2% of his receptions and 15.4% of his targets in 2023. Those numbers are wild. Those numbers are bound for regression. I am looking elsewhere this week.
That’s it for Week 6. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@THEtristancook) if you have any specific questions about who I would start.
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