The Week 4 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advanced Stats Matchup Guide was curated by Senior Staff Nerd Steven Pintado using statistics from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. This data can be used for fantasy football start/sit decisions, Daily Fantasy Sports lineup creations, Vegas lines and prop betting, and acts as an overall analytical profile of every key offensive player in the NFL. This is The Full Slate for Week 4 fantasy football.
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Week 4 Advance Player Stat of the Week | Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)
Stat of the Week | Targets Per Route Run Table (Click Here)
📊 Week 4 Advanced Player Stat of the Week | Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)
These receivers rank top 12 in both fantasy points per game and TPRR. Their usage is elite and signals sustainable fantasy production.
Low TPRR, High Fantasy Points
Quentin Johnston, Tre Tucker
Both are producing fantasy points but sit outside the top 45 in TPRR. Risk of regression if their route involvement doesn’t improve.
Positive Regression Candidates
Chris Olave, Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins
All rank inside the top 6 in TPRR but haven’t fully translated it into fantasy scoring. Expect sustained opportunity and potential uptick in production.
Our advanced player stat for Week 4 is Targets Per Route Run. It’s exactly what it sounds like—the percentage of a receiver’s routes where he earns a target. Why it matters for fantasy: you want receivers who are efficiently earning targets every time they’re on the field. When a player is targeted often on the routes he runs, it signals strong involvement in the offense and creates more opportunities for fantasy points.
There are 6 receivers currently ranked inside the top 12 in fantasy points per game who also sit inside the top 12 in TPRR. Among them are standouts like Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Davante Adams, showing that when they run a route, they’re getting targeted at an elite rate a recipe for sustained fantasy success.
On the other hand, two receivers in the top 10 for fantasy points are defying the odds: Quentin Johnston and Tre Tucker both rank outside the top 45 in TPRR. Despite their early production, their lack of targets per route could signal potential regression if their usage doesn’t improve.
Some players who may see a slight positive regression over the next few weeks include Chris Olave, Tyreek Hill, and Nico Collins, all of whom currently rank inside the top 6 at the position. There could be other factors that slow their fantasy production, but their high TPRR shows that when they’re on the field, they’re consistently getting targeted a key indicator for sustained opportunity and long-term fantasy success.
These advanced player stats for Week 4 offer deeper insights into Start/Sit decisions at QB, RB, WR, and TE. Use these metrics alongside Dynasty Nerds’ Week 4 Waiver Wire article, Week 4 Trade Advice, and our All-in-One Weekly Content hub to optimize your lineups.
Below in each dropdown are the full Week 4 Team Stats powered by Fantasy Points Data Suite. Use these metrics to make informed Start/Sit lineup calls.
Kenneth Walker – has 80 or more all-purpose yards in every game against Arizona in his career.
Marvin Harrison Jr. – faces a tough matchup this week as Seattle plays a high zone defense, and he has struggled with a 9.0% win rate against zone coverage.
Josh Allen – should be in for an efficient game against the Saints defense, which ranks in the bottom 10 in Adj Comp%, something that Allen already ranks in the top 10 in.
Juwan Johnson – needs to overcome a matchup against the Bills, who have allowed just 32 total yards to opposing TEs this season.
Tetairoa McMillan – gets a good matchup vs. the Patriots, who allow the 3rd most TPRR to opposing receivers.
Drake Maye – has a high 1st read % of 75.5%, but the Panthers allow the fifth-highest number of 1st read throws in the league. Maye could be forced to look toward his second and third options.
Omarion Hampton – has a good matchup vs the Giants, who allow the second-most yards after contact(2.94). Hampton should be in for a big game.
Cam Skattebo – looks like a bad matchup on paper, but expect the Giants to run more under Jaxson Dart, and the Chargers have the most MTF/Attp & seventh in Exp Run %. Skattebo could be a surprise play in Week 4.
Team Stats
Team
Def. Rank vs QBs
Def. Rank vs RBs
Def. Rank vs WRs
Def. Rank vs TEs
Def. 2 Man %
Def. Zone %
1-HI Sfty %
2-HI Sfty %
Offensive Plays Ran
Points/Game
Pass Yds/Game
Rush Yds/Game
Chargers
11 (solid)
3 (elite)
8 (strong)
9 (strong)
6.5
92.6
56.5
43.5
65.7
23.3
270.0
92.3
Giants
23 (weak)
30 (worst)
30 (worst)
21 (below avg)
46.7
47.4
61.5
38.5
62.7
17.3
243.3
96.0
Advanced QB Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
Total Yards/G
TD/G
D/GM
ADOT
YAC %
Adj Comp %
1-Read %
Press %
CHK %
Justin Herbert
Chargers
High QB1
97%
24.4
309.7
2.0
42
9
41.9
76.5
71.3
32.5
6.5
Jaxson Dart
Giants
QB3
60%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Advanced RB Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
Touches/G
ATT %
Off Snaps %
TGT %
i5%
i20%
EXP Run %
MTF/ATT
YACO/ATT
YBCO/ATT
XFP
Omarion Hampton
Chargers
Low RB1
93%
10.7
17.0
53%
74%
9.3
100
76.9
2.4
0.1
2.1
1.3
15.4
Devin Singletary
Giants
Outside Top 48
40%
0.8
3.0
11%
15%
0.9
0
0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.9
2.0
Cam Skattebo
Giants
Mid RB3
76%
12.0
11.0
32%
41%
11.8
100
57.1
4.3
0.4
3.6
0.9
13.2
Advanced WR Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 4 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
R/G
Man Win %
Zone Win %
Slot Rte %
YAC
EZTGT
1Read %
Chargers
Ladd McConkey
Low WR2
81%
7.9
7.0
19.4
0.18
39.0
32.4
16.9
61.5
50.0
0.0
24.7
Chargers
Keenan Allen
High WR2
86%
15.6
9.3
25.0
0.28
32.7
25.8
8.1
49.0
49.0
4.0
23.4
Chargers
Quentin Johnston
Low WR3
74%
16.3
8.0
21.3
0.20
38.7
25.7
17.7
17.2
103.0
3.0
26.0
Giants
Malik Nabers
Low WR1
93%
15.0
10.7
26.4
0.25
39.0
16.7
3.5
23.1
48.0
6.0
41.5
Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson
Mid WR4
65%
11.9
7.3
20.0
0.22
32.7
0.0
1.4
80.6
72.0
2.0
29.2
Advanced TE Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
RTE/G
SLOT RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
MAN WIN RATE
ZONE WIN RATE
Tyler Conklin
Chargers
Outside Top 24
25%
2.1
9.3
3.7
0.1
11.3
29.4
22.0
0
3.9
14.3
0.0
Theo Johnson
Giants
Outside Top 24
35%
2.6
3.3
8.2
0.1
28.3
54.1
27.0
0
7.7
0.0
0.0
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0)
Nick Chubb – We could finally see a decent Chubb game as the Titans allow the 4th most runs of 15 plus yards.
Cam Ward – has been sacked 15 times in 3 games and now faces the Texans, who average 3 sacks per game. It will be a tough day for the rookie quarterback.
Team Stats
Team
Def. Rank vs QBs
Def. Rank vs RBs
Def. Rank vs WRs
Def. Rank vs TEs
Def. 2 Man %
Def. Zone %
1-HI Sfty %
2-HI Sfty %
Offensive Plays Ran
Points/Game
Pass Yds/Game
Rush Yds/Game
Titans
8 (strong)
31 (worst)
26 (very weak)
13 (avg)
20.2
77.9
44.2
55.8
61.3
17.0
133.7
88.7
Texans
10 (strong)
27 (very weak)
19 (below avg)
14 (avg)
20.0
78.3
52.5
47.5
54.0
12.7
172.3
95.0
Advanced QB Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
Total Yards/G
TD/G
D/GM
ADOT
YAC %
Adj Comp %
1-Read %
Press %
CHK %
Cameron Ward
Titans
QB3
40%
9.4
175.3
0.7
40
7.6
54.2
70.5
64.6
41.7
9.1
C.J. Stroud
Texans
Mid QB2
75%
12.7
226.7
0.7
35.7
7.4
50.1
71.1
68.5
37.4
4.5
Advanced RB Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
Touches/G
ATT %
Off Snaps %
TGT %
i5%
i20%
EXP Run %
MTF/ATT
YACO/ATT
YBCO/ATT
XFP
Tony Pollard
Titans
High RB3
77%
9.5
18.7
77%
90%
6.1
20.0
54.5
0.0
0.1
2.2
1.4
13.0
Nick Chubb
Texans
Mid RB3
73%
8.6
13.0
52%
52%
6.7
100
40.0
2.9
0.2
1.5
2.6
10.1
Woody Marks
Texans
Mid RB4
65%
3.3
4.7
18%
29%
3.4
0.0
20.0
0.0
0.1
1.9
1.8
3.5
Advanced WR Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 4 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
R/G
Man Win %
Zone Win %
Slot Rte %
YAC
EZTGT
1Read %
Titans
Calvin Ridley
High WR4
69%
5.0
7.0
20.2
0.20
33.0
3.8
4.5
22.2
49.0
1.0
26.6
Titans
Elic Ayomanor
High WR5
56%
9.2
6.0
18.2
0.23
26.3
20.0
14.8
8.9
26.0
2.0
21.9
Texans
Nico Collins
Mid WR1
94%
11.7
8.3
28.1
0.28
30.0
32.0
16.1
20.0
55.0
3.0
32.8
Texans
Christian Kirk
Mid WR5
55%
4.0
8.0
18.4
0.20
29.0
28.6
5.0
62.1
20.0
0.0
20.7
Advanced TE Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
RTE/G
SLOT RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
MAN WIN RATE
ZONE WIN RATE
Chig Okonkwo
Titans
Mid TE2
65%
6.0
5.3
16.2
0.2
26.7
53.8
84.0
0
17.2
13.0
1.9
Dalton Schultz
Texans
Low TE2
62%
5.0
5.0
15.7
0.2
24.0
44.4
40.0
1.0
16.4
20.0
4.7
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Sunday Football | 4:05 PM / 4:25 PM
Indianapolis Colts (03-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-1)
Josh Downs – could be in for a sneaky game as the Rams run an 80.3% of the plays on zone coverage and Downs has a decent win rate vs. zone of 10.3%.
Jonathan Taylor – is going to have a tough match-up in week 4 versus the Rams, as they allow the 6th fewest 15 plus yard runs. while Taylor only is ranked 26th in Exp Run%.
Team Stats
Team
Def. Rank vs QBs
Def. Rank vs RBs
Def. Rank vs WRs
Def. Rank vs TEs
Def. 2 Man %
Def. Zone %
1-HI Sfty %
2-HI Sfty %
Offensive Plays Ran
Points/Game
Pass Yds/Game
Rush Yds/Game
Colts
5 (elite)
15 (avg)
9 (strong)
19 (below avg)
23.9
70.8
54.9
45.1
63.3
34.3
265.3
153.3
Rams
17 (below avg)
1 (best)
20 (below avg)
18 (below avg)
13.4
80.3
44.1
55.9
60.7
24.3
236.7
127.0
Advanced QB Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
Total Yards/G
TD/G
D/GM
ADOT
YAC %
Adj Comp %
1-Read %
Press %
CHK %
Daniel Jones
Colts
Low QB1
93%
24.7
290.3
2.0
32.7
8.3
45.6
78.8
79.5
32.7
5.7
Matthew Stafford
Rams
Mid QB2
80%
18.3
243.7
1.7
33.3
8.4
36.4
74.4
81.1
34.0
2.1
Advanced RB Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
Touches/G
ATT %
Off Snaps %
TGT %
i5%
i20%
EXP Run %
MTF/ATT
YACO/ATT
YBCO/ATT
XFP
Jonathan Taylor
Colts
Mid RB1
94%
23.7
22.7
60%
81%
10.2
50.0
55.2
5
0.3
3.7
1.9
21.1
Kyren Williams
Rams
High RB2
86%
13.5
20.0
68%
76%
6.3
42.9
55.6
1.8
0.1
2.4
1.7
15.3
Blake Corum
Rams
Mid RB4
65%
5.9
5.0
17%
24%
1.0
14.3
22.2
14.3
0.1
3.5
3.6
4.3
Advanced WR Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 4 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
R/G
Man Win %
Zone Win %
Slot Rte %
YAC
EZTGT
1Read %
Colts
Michael Pittman Jr.
High WR3
79%
13.1
6.3
21.6
0.23
27.0
28.0
5.8
30.9
76.0
0.0
24.3
Colts
Alec Pierce*
Outside Top 60
45%
7.4
4.7
14.8
0.16
26.3
20.0
15.7
11.4
15.0
2.0
15.7
Colts
Josh Downs
Low WR5
52%
4.9
4.7
15.9
0.26
17.7
28.6
10.3
75.5
17.0
1.0
17.1
Colts
Adonai Mitchell
Low WR5
51%
2.0
2.7
8.0
0.39
6.0
75.0
7.1
27.8
0.0
0.0
10.0
Rams
Puka Nacua
High WR1
99%
19.7
11.7
36.5
0.45
25.7
33.3
14.3
54.5
125.0
0.0
44.2
Rams
Davante Adams
High WR2
89%
13.3
9.7
29.2
0.32
29.3
40.5
21.7
26.1
41.0
8.0
29.9
* Pierce in the concussion protocol – could lead to Adonai Mitchell seeing some work.
Advanced TE Stats | Starts & Sits
Player
Team
Week 4 Rank
Confidence
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
RTE/G
SLOT RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
MAN WIN RATE
ZONE WIN RATE
Tyler Warren
Colts
High TE1
90%
8.9
7.0
22.7
0.3
26.0
32.1
132.0
1.0
24.3
5.6
5.4
Tyler Higbee
Rams
Outside Top 24
35%
1.9
2.0
6.3
0.1
19.3
22.4
40.0
1.0
6.5
4.3
0.0
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
Parker Washington – led the team in TPRR with a .33 in week 3, as it seems Washington is becoming a major target in the offense.
Christian McCaffrey – has a difficult match-up vs the Jaguars, who have allowed just 11 receptions to opposing running backs and zero rushing touchdowns.
Patrick Mahomes – could see a boost in production this week, as the Ravens allow an 80.4% Adj Comp % to opposing quarterbacks, which could help increase Mahomes’ 75.5%
Mark Andrews – has struggled in his matchups(5) vs Kansas City over his career with zero touchdowns, and the Chiefs do rank 4th against TEs in 2025.
Geno Smith – could see a boost in production this week, as the Bears allow an 84.3% Adj Comp % to opposing quarterbacks, which could help increase Smith’ 71.7%
D’Andre Swift – faces a Raiders team that has allowed just one running back over 40 yards this season.
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Week 4 Fantasy Football Start/Sit | FAQ
Q: What is Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) in fantasy football? A: TPRR is the percentage of routes where a receiver earns a target. It shows how efficiently a player is earning opportunities and is one of the best predictive stats for long-term fantasy success.
Q: Which wide receivers stand out in TPRR heading into Week 4? A: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all rank top 12 in both fantasy points per game and TPRR. Their usage signals sustainable production, not just early-season noise.
Q: Which advanced stats matter most for Week 4 fantasy football start/sit calls? A: Stats like Air Yards, Red Zone Target Share, Explosive Run Rate, and Yards After Catch help identify breakout players and avoid misleading box score spikes.
Q: How can advanced stats be used to win DFS contests in Week 4? A: DFS managers should track Expected Fantasy Points (XFP), Target Share, and Explosive Run Rate. These stats highlight undervalued players whose opportunity isn’t fully priced into salaries.
Q: What player stats are most useful for NFL prop betting in Week 4? A: Metrics like TPRR, Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), and Yards Before Contact (YBCO/ATT) reveal efficiency edges that can point to profitable prop lines.
Q: Which Week 4 NFL matchups offer the biggest statistical edges? A: High-total games like Miami vs. Buffalo and Kansas City vs. Baltimore create opportunities. Advanced metrics such as Yards Per Route Run and Win Rate vs Man/Zone highlight favorable WR/CB matchups.
Q: Why is Red Zone Usage critical for Week 4 fantasy football? A: Stats like Inside 20% (i20%) and Inside 5% (i5%) rushing shares directly tie to touchdown opportunity. Players with high red-zone usage are far more likely to spike in scoring.
Q: How does Expected Fantasy Points (XFP) help fantasy managers? A: XFP estimates how many PPR points a player should score based on volume and usage. When XFP is higher than actual output, it signals a buy-low opportunity heading into the next week.
Member of the Dynasty Nerds Analytics/Writing Team Twitter: @coachstevep - A Jersey Guy working in Finance! Big Dolphins fan and have been playing fantasy football since 2008.
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