We thought the NFL was done with big moves this offseason, but the Bills and Texans said we were not. The Buffalo Bills are sending All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs, a 2024 sixth-rounder and a 2025 fifth-rounder, to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round pick.
What does this trade do for dynasty owners? It’s time to break down the Texans’ offense with Diggs’s addition and the Bills’ offense without their All-Pro receiver.
Houston Texans Offense
The Texans seem all in on the 2024 season with the trade for Diggs. They have made moves to set up this offense to be elite, and Diggs brings in another veteran presence and consistency to the pass catcher room.
Last season, the Texans dealt with injuries to their top five pass catchers. They all missed at least two games, with some missing as many as eight. Diggs has played 16-plus games in each of the last four seasons. The Texans needed a consistent elite receiver on the field to grow with this young quarterback.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs has been an elite fantasy receiver for years, especially in Buffalo. When Diggs was traded to the Bills, he thrived as the team’s WR1 and produced elite fantasy numbers over those years.
Diggs isn’t the 26-year-old he was when he went to the Bills, as he will cross the 31-year mark during the 2024 season. In 2023, Diggs had his worst season as a Buffalo Bills. He had his fewest yards with 1,183 yards. Diggs had a horrible second half in the 2023 season. He produced only 43 receiving yards per game over the final eight weeks. The connection between Diggs and Josh Allen seems to have fallen apart.
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | Y/r | Tds | Catch Rate | ||
| Stefon Diggs | 166 | 115 | 1384 | 12.1 | 10 | 69.1 |
Diggs has been a masterful receiver with 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last four years. Diggs is going to another young quarterback in a similar situation when he was traded to the Bills in 2020.
Diggs’ age will raise question marks. He is in a unique grouping of elite receivers and could still manage an All-Pro season. The age of 31 is usually a cliff age for receivers, but some great receivers managed to produce at that age. One of the most recent receivers was Keenan Allen in 2023, with 1,200 yards. Diggs will also be playing indoors, so that should be able to help his cause as a player in the long term.
Diggs has been an elite receiver, but we saw a drop-off at the end of the 2023 season, which is concerning. For one, his yards per route run dropped from 2.87 to 2.03 from 2022 to 2023. He failed to produce anywhere close to 100 yards from week seven on.
We know that Diggs was unhappy in this situation in Buffalo, so you must question whether his head was in the game during that time. Diggs going to Houston could affect his target share. He has been a top-ten receiver in target share for the last four seasons. Diggs will compete with many young, promising players looking to make a name for themselves in 2024. He may not reach the 160 targets he has had in the last four seasons. Diggs could lose that WR1 upside to where he is a WR2 in fantasy football.
Due to the hype around the Texans, this would be a perfect time to sell Diggs. He is excellent, but that cliff will come, and it could be this season. If a contending team wants to give up a back-half first-round pick, you should move it. If you aren’t competing, I’d be looking to sell off Diggs while I can.
CJ Stroud
Stroud continues to see his value rise in dynasty, and adding Diggs helps confirm that Stroud should be a top-three dynasty quarterback right now. He gets a reliable target with a 69% catch rate in the last four years.
Diggs helped Josh Allen reach new levels, and he can help do the same with Stroud. Diggs helped give his quarterback a solid quarterback rating when targeted last year with 94%. He can work after the catch and help give the young quarterback some confidence in throws sent Diggs’ way. Owners who have Stroud in the dynasty should feel very good right now, and he is a firm hold across leagues.
The Receivers
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | Y/r | Tds | Catch Rate | |
| Nico Collins | 109 | 80 | 1297 | 16.2 | 8 | 73.4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 88 | 59 | 635 | 10.8 | 5 | 67 |
| Tank Dell | 75 | 47 | 709 | 15.1 | 7 | 62.7 |
The Texan’s offense is getting a huge addition with Diggs, but how does that impact the rest of the offense? It will be interesting to see who they play in the slot since Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Diggs should all be on the field as much as possible.
Diggs played the most slot snaps among the three receivers he could move to that role, but Collins could fill that spot with his abilities after the catch. He was sixth in YAC in 2023. His speed to work inside while defenses focus on Diggs on the outside could be a sneaky good thing for him.
My concern will be in the red zone for Collins since Diggs has been a good weapon in the red zone. Let’s not forget the addition of Joe Mixon, who takes away rushing touchdowns. Collins could be a buy in dynasty following the Diggs trade. Collins won’t feel the pressure to be the team’s WR1 and will do what he does best for the offense. Bob Woods and Noah Brown combined for 130 targets in 2023, which could move toward Collins even if Diggs sees over 120 targets.
Collins is in his prime right now, and in a contract season, there will be a lot for him to prove to get that next deal. Diggs has an out in 2025 with zero dead cap for the team. Collins showed that he is a rising receiver in this league and was ranked second in QB rating when targeted with 129.6%. He has also already demonstrated that he is an excellent receiver with his yards per route run of 3.24, ranked second in the league. He already has a connection with Stroud that will continue to blossom even with Diggs on the field. I’m looking to buy any dip on Collins in dynasty right now.
Tank Dell takes the bigger hit in the offense with Diggs in town. He is coming off the injury, and his size worries me in dynasty. Dell is an electric player, but I can’t imagine him being a 120-plus targeted player in the NFL despite a promising rookie season. He should still start on the outside unless the team sees him as the slot due to his speed, but he is better at being the deep threat for the team.
It will be essential if the team runs more than 11 personnel for Dell’s value. The Texans ranked 25th last season with 11 personnel, while they ranked fourth with 21 personnel. They could still do that with the addition of Mixon.
Let’s not forget that the team has a background history of the 49ers offense, and they love to run the ball well and be efficient in the passing game. Dell has big play ability, but his target share may not be consistent with fantasy. He may come off as more of a boom-or-bust player instead of what we saw in 2023. He is a firm hold unless you can buy low on the young receiver.
The Rest of the Offense
Dalton Schultz and Joe Mixon take hits in the passing game. Schultz was a consistent option, but the targets now will be a concern with Diggs on the field. Diggs commanding targets in an offense may result in Schultz seeing a dip in targets. Schultz averaged six targets per game last year, but that could drop to closer to four. He could become a touchdown-dependent tight end with fewer targets.
For Mixon, the Diggs trade can be good and bad. Defenses must respect this elite passing attack, and Mixon may have lighter boxes to run the ball. His 49 career targets per season may come down with the targets going to the receiver group. Schultz falls to a high-end TE2 in dynasty rather than the upside-low-end TE1. Mixon is still a decent buy for a contending team to help give RB2 numbers in 2024 and beyond. Also, players like John Metchie, Noah Brown, Bob Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson become drop candidates following your 2024 rookie drafts.
Buffalo Bills Offense Fallout
The Bills are experiencing some growing pain, and they have gone all in the last few seasons, but cap issues have hurt this offense. Diggs has been Buffalo’s leading target receiver for the past four years. He has averaged 27% of Josh Allen’s 2364 targets in the previous four seasons. The team also lost Gabe Davis earlier in the offseason to Jacksonville.
Josh Allen
Allen was Diggs’s biggest beneficiary for years. Before Diggs, Allen averaged a 55% completion percentage during his first two seasons. In the last four years, Allen averaged a 65% completion percentage with Diggs on the field. Of course, with Diggs, Allen had over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in his time there. One of the best quarterbacks in the game no longer has a WR1 on the team.
One thing that makes Diggs leaving okay for Allen is his ability on the field. He is his own weapon for this offense. When Diggs was struggling in the second half of the season, Allen was the QB2 in that time frame as he had nine rushing touchdowns in that span despite only throwing over 300 yards just twice in eight games.
Allen’s dynasty value will take a slight hit without a true WR1 in his offense. Allen has been the almost no-question dynasty QB1 in startups of the last few seasons. Diggs leaving opens the door for other quarterbacks to take over, but he is still a top-three dynasty quarterback. If there is a dip in his value, then buy into it. The Bills will get Allen another weapon.
The Receiving Corps
You should expect the Bills to be in the market for a receiver in a big way. There could be a situation where they go after a Tee Higgins, but the draft makes more sense for them. The Bills own the 28-pick overall, which could put them in the market for Brain Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Adonis Mitchell, or Troy Franklin, or they could wait until their second-round pick to grab someone.
The Bills’ offense could expand to more than 12 personnel in 2024. They have two very good tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. In 2023, they were ranked 17th in 12 personnel plays. Knox missed time, or the ranking could have been higher. Once he was injured in week eight, Kincaid was TE10 for the rest of the season.
Kincaid takes a big jump in dynasty if the team can’t bring in an elite weapon to pair in this offense. He should be an every-week starter in the dynasty. Kincaid is now in the conversation as the top tight end in dynasty if the Bills don’t make moves. Knox would become a bye-week TE2 fill-in, as he should see consistent targets in the offense.
| GP | Y/R | Rec | Tg | Yds | TDs | Ru At | Yds | Ru TDs | .5 PPR | |
| Khalil Shakir | 17 | 16 | 38 | 44 | 599 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 92 |
| Dawson Knox | 12 | 8 | 22 | 35 | 186 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 16 | 9 | 73 | 91 | 673 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 |
| Curtis Samuel | 16 | 10 | 62 | 91 | 613 | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 126 |
This could be Khalil Shakir‘s rise, and he could slide in as this team’s WR1. When he saw four-plus targets last year in seven games, he averaged ten fantasy points. If things go Shakir’s way, he could jump from 44 targets to over 100.
Curtis Samuel signed there this offseason. He could be a more consistent player in the offense. Allen has given slot receivers over 100 targets in two of the last four seasons. If you are a dynasty owner who owns Shakir and Samuel, then you should be testing the market prior to the NFL draft and try to get great value for them. If not, then you hold them as they will have a role in this offense. It may be time to go and pick up Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter on dynasty waivers to see if they could hit in 2024.
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