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The Classiest Dynasty League Case Study Part 4: The 2021 Rookie Draft

Have you botched a start-up draft or have a team in the dumps? You need to check out this case study over how @Jsnake_DFF turned a dumpster fire team to a 3rd place team in one year. Here’s Part 4: The 2021 Rookie Draft

In the fourth installment of my Superflex dynasty case study, I will talk about the trades and draft picks I made during the 2021 offseason. As a reminder, this team was a botched start-up draft that led to a need to retool/rebuild. If you want to read Part 1 about the start-up draft, click here. For Part 2 about the moves in the first rookie draft, click here. For Part 3 about the moves made in the first season, click here.

One important update for this series is that my draft picks were 1.04 & 2.04. So overall, I ended up with 1.04, 2.04, 2.11, 3.07, 4.04, and 5.04. But before we get to the draft, I made one trade that we need to talk about.

SuperFlex Dynasty Regular Season: January – August 2021

Traded Joe Mixon & 2021 1.11 for Alvin Kamara

Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

In the third part of this series, I discussed how I made lateral moves trading running backs, and I did it again. My thought process at the time was to move Mixon (a perceived unstable asset) and a late first-round pick for a stud in Kamara. I would much rather keep the pick and debate on moving Mixon for a QB, WR, or TE in the offseason because I did not know if I would compete going into the 2021 season. Also, the 1.11 could have become Waddle, who is almost the value of Kamara (to some above him). This trade is not a huge miss, but I now want to move off of Kamara for 2-3 decent assets.

TRADING TO CREATE A DYNASTY THOUGHTS

From doing the dynasty case studies, I have realized that the best way to maintain a dynasty team is to move top-end players, especially at RB, for multiple high upside assets. Think about this like trading back in a start-up. If you can move a first-round pick for a fourth, fifth, and sixth, you should do it EVERY SINGLE TIME! The only position that I lean towards holding onto the top-end players is QB and TE. The tier drops are steep, and the top players will most likely maintain their value.

THE DRAFT

1.04- Ja’Marr Chase

Chase was my BPA pick at 1.04. He had his value increase the most out of any rookie player in the draft, and he helped lead me to a playoff run (if only I had made it to the championship game…). I will be holding onto Chase forever on this dynasty team! Drafting a player like Chase in rookie drafts is what will truly catapult your team! Also, a fun thing to look at is the change in dynasty value, and according to dynastytradecalculator.com, he went from their WR12 to their WR2.

2.04- Elijah Moore

Credit: Corey Sipkin | AP

Moore has turned into a top-end dynasty asset, and he fell into my lap at 2.04 with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon going right before him. Moore is one player that I would look to acquire now! I sadly did trade Moore in a move that I thought would help me be competitive, but I really should have been patient. In general, I have learned that when moving two or more high upside assets, it is best to hold off trading until right before the playoffs. Patience is hard but essential in not being reactionary.

2.12- D’Wayne Eskridge

The main reason I went for Eskridge at the 2.12 in a 14 team league is his second-round draft capital. I have changed my philosophy for second-round picks and later, and I will now focus on high upside RBs like Stevenson, Hubbard, or Elijah Mitchell (Gainwell would also be on this list back during the draft).

Also, I would strongly recommend using resources like the Dynasty Nerds film rankings and other people on Twitter into analytics to get a proper feeling on if the player will be a good fantasy football player. If I had followed the Dynasty Nerds film rankings, I would have either drafted Nick Collins or Gainwell.

3.07- Tylan Wallace

This draft pick is very boring, and it was following the Twitter hype around Wallace. In a 12 team league, this draft pick would have been a late third-round pick. I was hoping to snatch up Chuba Hubbard, but he ended up going one pick ahead of me. This late in the draft, you have to go for who you like and pray you get lucky. What could have been if I drafted Elijah Mitchell, who went four picks later…

4.04- Ihmir Smith-Marsette

5.04- Riley Ferguson

START-UP TO ROOKIE DRAFT TEAM CHANGES

As you can see, my team has completely turned around going into the 2021 season. I have strengths at every position except for my TE and my Superflex. Also, by having the WR1 and WR2 going into the 2022 offseason in dynasty, this team shows how drafting young uber-talented WRs early and often is the way to go! Yes, I did get lucky, but luck is a big part of fantasy football. With luck, you can increase your luck by continuing to make well-thought-out draft picks and trades. That is the whole reason I am doing this case study series.

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. DO NOT make lateral RB moves especially during the offseason.
  2. I had this rookie draft fall to me with getting Chase and Moore where I did, and I prefer to let rookie drafts and start-up drafts fall to me because that leads to value. You can still have preferences and your own rankings, but usually that only leads to a few ADP spot changes.
  3. Use a plethora of resources to decide who you are picking during rookie drafts. I would use the Dynasty Nerds film room rankings, analytics twitter threads/articles, NFL draft capital, and your favorite dynasty analyst’s rookie rankings. I strongly recommend not to only use one method.

In Part 5, I will talk about the trades and waiver adds I made in the 2021 season, which set my team to make a playoff run and get third place!

Get ready for your rookie draft with the DynastyGM!! Rankins, trade calculator, league analyzer, and much more. Just $4.99/month or better yet, bundle with the Nerd Herd for just $6.99/month and get extra podcasts, the Dynasty Prospect Film Room, and more.

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