Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
Details of the Script
- MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ Highmark Stadium
- Weather – Clear Night
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -7.0) & Over/Under 46.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Broncos and the Bills haven’t played each other since the 2020 season. The Bills would blow out the Broncos 48-19. The Broncos are coming off a bye week after upsetting the Chiefs at home in week eight. The Bills would lose a tough game on the road in Cincinnati. The Bills need to get back to a more balanced offense, and there is no better way than against the worst run defense in the league. The Broncos hopefully figured out some offense issues after their bye. The Bills defense has struggled with injuries, especially in the secondary. The Broncos will look to take advantage of that on Monday. I expect this game to be more exciting than most MNF games.
Russell Wilson is coming off a nice fantasy outing with 23 fantasy points. He only had 114 passing yards, but he threw for three touchdowns. Wilson has been up and down in fantasy but has had three of the last five games with over 20 fantasy points. Overall, the Bills have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. If we look at the previous three weeks, the Bills have allowed 240 yards and two passing touchdowns. They haven’t caused an interception in five weeks. I think Wilson should be able to do well with the Bills’ injury-plagued defense. Wilson is a borderline QB1 in week ten.
Josh Allen is having a fantastic season this year. He has well over 20 fantasy points in seven of nine games. The Broncos are ranked in the bottom ten vs. fantasy quarterbacks this season. The Broncos aren’t as easy as a layup as they were in the early part of the season. In the last four weeks, the Broncos have only allowed one pass catcher over 250 passing yards. They also have only allowed three passing touchdowns in the previous four weeks. During the first four weeks, the Broncos did allow 13 passing touchdowns, so they have shown improvement in the last month. Josh Allen will likely have a turnover in this game because he’s consistently done that. Allen is an elite talent and should be able to finish as a QB1 in week ten against the Broncos.
For the Broncos backfield, Javonte Williams is back on top. Williams has 80 rushing yards in the last two weeks and finished with over ten fantasy points. Based on the offensive snaps, it is clear that Williams is beyond far the starter. Samaje Perine still has the passing work in the offense, while Jaleel McLaughlin sprinkles in on certain plays. The Bills run defense became a liability last month, but they have not allowed a rusher over 40 yards in recent weeks. Where the Bills are struggling is to stop pass-catching running backs. They have allowed opposing running backs five-plus receptions in the last three games.
For Javonte Williams, I assume that he will end up seeing most of the offensive work, especially on the ground. He has seen some targets, but not enough to be a reliable production source. Williams is likely a high-end RB2 and will look to get his first rushing touchdown of the season. Samaje Perine is working as the third down back but is not producing with his opportunities. He has 78 yards in the last three weeks. Perine is likely an RB4 in week 10. For McLaughlin, he’s a complete wildcard because he has shown that he only needs a few plays to produce a big game. He has been averaging seven touches per game over the last three weeks but has been under six fantasy points in those weeks. He is likely an RB4 with boom/bust potential in this game.
For the Bills’ backfield, James Cook continues to do most of the work in the offense despite being much closer in snaps with Latavius Murray. Cook has just one game over ten fantasy points in the last five weeks. His rushing has been solid but not amazing, and his catching value has been up and down. The Broncos are still hurting ranking-wise due to that Dolphins game, as they allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Since that Dolphins game, the Broncos have allowed four backs over 60 yards but only one touchdown. Cook should be able to score decent numbers against a lousy run defense. His recent production doesn’t give confidence that he can be an RB1 but a solid RB2 in week ten. Latvaious Murray, while seeing more work, has been very effective. He would likely be a borderline RB4 who would need a touchdown to be relevant. We could very well see Leonard Fournette tomorrow.
The Broncos pass catchers have a decent matchup in week ten. The Bills have allowed 12 receivers over 50 yards this season. They have allowed three touchdowns over the last three weeks. The injuries have made it easy to have receivers produce. Courtland Sutton has been a consistent flex option all season long. He is averaging 48 yards and almost a touchdown per game. Sutton seems to have found a connection with Wilson that should be trusted in a favorable matchup. Sutton is a solid, high-end WR3. Jerry Juedy is coming around the last two weeks in fantasy. He has over 50 yards in both games and is a usable flex option. Hopefully, the bye week has helped this offense get the ball to him more since he is talented with the ball in his hands. For me, he is still a high-end WR4 that you could flex. Marvin Mims is a name to keep your eyes on, as rookies sometimes produce coming off a bye week. There is no tight-end production worth mentioning.
The Bills pass catchers, all eyes will be on Stefon Diggs, who is dealing with an injury. He should play in his game, but we’ll see if he is limited in any way. The Broncos may have played lesser talent the last four weeks, as they have only three receivers over 50 yards. Before that, they allowed seven players over 50 yards in five weeks. The Bills offense can’t be stopped against a so-so secondary. So Stefon Diggs is a must-start player despite the injury concerns. He has double-digit fantasy points in every game of his season. He should be a WR1 in week ten. Gabe Davis has shown his value as a boom/bust receiver this last month. He had two targets for zero production last week. I don’t think Davis goes off for a big game. He is more of a high-end WR4. Allen’s injury has affected Davis’ downfield threat ability.
Khalil Shakir has seen a nice production intake in the last two weeks as his snaps have increased. He has been over 70 % of the offensive snaps with Dawson Knox out of the lineup. I don’t expect Shakir to see many targets, as he could be a lower-scoring game. Shakir would likely be a low-end WR4. The Broncos allow the third most fantasy points per game for the tight end position. They have allowed four tight ends well over 50 receiving yards and don’t generally shut down any tight end group. Dalton Kincaid has double-digit fantasy points in three straight weeks. In the last three weeks, he has been second in targets and producing not by touchdowns but by seeing 50 yards in each game. Kincaid can’t be stopped and will become a TE1 in week ten.