Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs
Details of the Script
- MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Weather – Potential Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -2.5) & Over/Under 45.5
Identifying the Game Script
We are getting the Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and the Chiefs. We know that the Chiefs would beat the Eagles in that game. The Eagles are coming off a bye week after winning a shootout in week nine against the Cowboys. The Chiefs are also coming off a bye where they won a game in Germany against the Dolphins. The Eagles offense won’t have to be easy, as the Chiefs defense is very good, especially at home. They should be able to produce in a hopeful, high-scoring MNF game. The Chiefs aren’t going to be able to run, so they should take advantage of the Eagles awful secondary this season. This classic juggernaut matchup should produce many high-scoring fantasy players in Week 11.
Jalen Hurts has been fantastic this season, with over 20 fantasy points in eight straight games. Hurts is the best touchdown machine in the league, with 22 total touchdowns. Hurts is not running as much, but his passing numbers have increased, likely giving him new career highs by the end of the season. The Chiefs are a top-10 unit against fantasy quarterbacks in 2023. They have allowed just one quarterback in the last four weeks over 200 passing yards. The Chiefs have allowed only three of nine quarterbacks to throw for two passing touchdowns. They have allowed a quarterback over 30 rushing yards three times. Hurts has been so elite this season that I will not worry about his production in Week 11.
Patrick Mahomes has been average the last month of the season. He has been under 20 fantasy points in three of the previous four games. In that span, he has six turnovers and seven passing touchdowns. Mahomes usually never plays amazingly against the Broncos, and he played them twice in four games. The Eagles have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. In the last two weeks, they have allowed 300 passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns. Mahomes should have no issue carving up this Eagles secondary on Monday.
For the Eagles backfield, D’Andre Swift has been the RB1. He has 15-plus carries in four of the last five games. He has been a little poor in his YPC in that time but managed to produce in fantasy for us. His worst game as the starter has been eight fantasy points, which isn’t bad at all. The Chiefs run defense is their weak spot on their defense. They have allowed a rusher to go over 75 yards in three straight games. They have also given up a rushing touchdown in two of the last three games. While this game could quickly turn into a shootout, the Eagles won’t abandon the run game. Swift should still have 12-plus carries in this game. Swift is a borderline RB1 who hopefully can find a few more targets in this game. Kenny Gainwell has scored in two of the last three games, but his fantasy numbers are strictly good if he can score. He is an RB4 in Week 11.
The Chiefs backfield, with Isiah Pacheco, has not been great the last two weeks. This backfield has the worst matchup in Week 11, as the Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They allow the fewest rushing yards and only have given up two touchdowns. The Eagles have allowed 50 rushing yards in each game in the last two weeks, so that is positive news for Pacheco. Pacheco should be able to see 13 carries in this game, but it will come down to his passing value if he has a good game. He has shown that when given targets, he can produce, but in the last two weeks, he has not. He should be a mid-range RB2 for lineups. Jerick Mckinnon got a receiving touchdown in week nine but has not seen the same role he did last year. Mckinnon could see more targets in a game that could have a high-scoring finish. He is a RB4 in Week 11.
The Eagles pass catchers have a tough matchup as the Chiefs rank in the top ten against fantasy receivers. Since week three, the Chiefs have only allowed one receiver over 65 receiving yards in a game. They have allowed three receiving touchdowns in the last two games. AJ Brown had his 100-game streak snapped in week nine but still had double-digit fantasy points in seven straight games. Brown has seen eight-plus targets these last seven weeks, so he should have no issue being a WR1 in Week 11.
DeVonta Smith will see a bump in production with Dallas Geodert out of the lineup. When Goedert missed time last season, Smith averaged six receptions for 92 yards. Smith should see more consistent targets in this game. He should be able to see six-plus targets. In a high-scoring game, he is a WR1 in Week 11. Julio Jones may have some value here, but not enough to put in the top 60 receivers. With Goedert out, Jake Stoll and maybe Albert Okwuegbunam would start as the tight end for this team. I wouldn’t trust them in this matchup. They are outside the top 24 tight ends.
Chiefs pass catchers have a fantastic matchup as the Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns in the last three weeks. They have also given up four receivers over 80 yards in that span. All season, the Eagles’ secondary has been unable to stop many receivers. Rookie Rashee Rice has grown as a fantasy option with seven plus fantasy points in the last five games. He has 50 yards in three of five games and three with a touchdown. The last time he was on the field, he led the team in snaps and was third in routes run. Rice should be in for the first big game of his career at the NFL level. He is a high-end WR3 in Week 11.
No one else is a safe option for fantasy. I’d consider deep shots like MVS or Justin Watson in this game, but they are not trustworthy as a WR5. Skyy Moore continues to see fewer snaps in the field, and the same can be said for Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney. They are all outside the top 60 receivers. For Travis Kelce, the Eagles are ranked in the bottom ten in stopping tight ends. Kelce has been great when Taylor Swift is in attendance. He averages 108 yards per game with her in attendance compared to 46 when she isn’t. Kelce is an elite option and will be a TE1 in Week 11. Noah Gray could be an interesting option with 25-plus yards in back-to-back games. He could sneak in as a low-end TE2 due to the matchup.