|QB 1||Elite Starting Option||WR 1||Elite Starting Option||RB 1||Elite Starting Option||TE1||Strong Starting Option|
|High End QB 2||Great for SF/Sleeper QB1||WR 2||Strong Starting Option||RB 2||Great Starting Option||Low End TE 1||Good Starting Option|
|Mid/Low QB 2||Decent/Sleeper for SuperFlex||WR 3||Good WR3/Strong Flex Option||High End RB 3||Good Starting Option/ Flex Play||High End TE 2||Decent Starting Option|
|QB 3||Risky Superflex Play/Sit||WR 4||Shakey Flex Option/Decent in WR3 Flex||Mid/Low RB 3||Flex Play/ 1B Option||Low end TE 2||Desperate Option|
|Borderline||Players inbetween options||WR 5||Desperate Flex Play/Deep Sleeper||RB 4||Back ups with upside/favorable matchup|
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Cleveland Browns Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (CLE -1.0) & Over/Under 32.5
Identifying the Game Script
We are getting the rematch of the Steelers and Browns for this season. The Steelers beat the Browns last time at home 26-23. Over the previous five games, these teams have averaged a combined score of 40.2 per game. The Steelers also have won four of the last five. The Steelers are coming off another solid win over the Packers. The Browns shocked the world in Week 10 in a come-from-behind win over the red-hot Ravens. The Steelers will have to play brilliant football, as the Browns are a tough defense to play against. The Browns must adapt to life without DeShaun Watson, who landed on IR. The Browns run game will be full force as the Steelers have a poor run defense. I do expect this one to be lower-scoring and a tough defensive battle.
Kenny Pickett has been a terrible fantasy quarterback this season. Pickett has just one game this season over 15 fantasy points. He is averaging, at best, 11 fantasy points per game this year. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Browns are elite but have been a bit easier to beat in recent weeks. In the last four weeks, they have allowed, on average, 210 passing yards and one touchdown. Before that, they allowed, on average, 143 yards and less than a touchdown per game. Last time, Pickett finished with 12 fantasy points. The Steelers offense hasn’t improved much since week two besides getting Diontae Johnson back. Pickett has shown us nothing that he deserves a top-24 spot in fantasy. He is a QB3 in Week 11.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get the start in Week 11 as DeShaun Watson heads to the IR for the season. The last time we saw DTR, it wasn’t great as he was thrown into a game against the tough Ravens defense in which he threw three picks. He did show off a slight rushing floor with 24 yards on four carries. DTR wasn’t the best prospect, but he did have some exciting traits, especially with his mobility at the next level. The Steelers have allowed quarterbacks to have high yardage, with an opposing quarterback producing over 260 passing yards in the last three games. They have kept passing touchdowns to a minimum, with just four in the previous five games. DTR could run on this Steelers team if given an opportunity, which he may need to do due to their tough pass defense. He is still a QB3, as I don’t trust the throwing ability he has shown us at the NFL level.
We seem to have a change in the starting role for the Steelers backfield, with Jaylen Warren being named the starter before the week ten game. Warren has done well the last two weeks, producing 223 yards. Warren didn’t see more work than Najee Harris, as they both played 51% of the offensive snaps, but it’s a step in a better direction. The Browns are ranked in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have allowed five running backs over 50 yards but none over 75 yards. They are a bend but don’t break type of run defense. Last time, Warren and Harris combined for 63 rushing yards, but Warren had four receptions for 66 yards in that game. Warren has been producing these last few weeks, so he needs to be in that RB2 range for fantasy, as I have him as a borderline RB2. He has proven to be an efficient runner to make big plays. For Harris, he has scored a touchdown and ran for 50 yards in three of the last four games. Harris seems to be playing better than usual as the season goes on. If Harris can’t score, he may only be an RB3 in games. Harris should be a mid-range RB3/flex play in Week 11.
For the Browns backfield, we should expect them to be leaned on with a rookie quarterback starting. The last time the Browns faced the Steelers was that terrible Nick Chubb injury. Jerome Ford had a big game with over 100 rushing yards. The Steelers have a bottom-ten run defense and have allowed a 70-yard rusher in the last three games. Ford is coming off his most efficient game since that previous Steelers game. Since the Browns bye week, Ford has double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. Ford is the team’s primary rusher and pass catcher on the offense. Ford should see over 15 carries in this game and finish as a high-end RB2. Also, Ford had five receptions with DTR when they played together in week four, so he could also have a pass-catching bump. Kareem Hunt has been a touchdown machine with five straight games with a rushing touchdown. He has seen ten carries in each game following the Browns bye week, so he has a solid role in the offense. Hunt is a usable RB3 and hopes he can make it six straight games with a touchdown.
The Steelers pass catchers struggled last week to produce in fantasy. Geroge Pickens and Diontae Johnson combined for four receptions for 62 yards. Johnson was on a good pace, but seeing only one reception was a letdown game for him. Pickens has regressed since Johnson came back onto the field. The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have struggled a bit against receivers in the last four weeks. They have allowed five receivers over 60 yards in that span after only allowing two in the first five weeks. In those last four games, they have allowed five receiving touchdowns compared to one in weeks one to six. Johnson hasn’t done well against the Browns, averaging 54 yards in seven games with only one touchdown. Johnson should return to the lead target receiver in this game. In a tough matchup with limited upside, Johnson should be a solid WR3 for Week 11.
George Pickens has lost his must-start status with Johnson back. He has 11 targets in the last three weeks after having eight in week seven. Pickens did have a big game against the Browns last time, thanks to a 72-yard touchdown catch. If Pickens isn’t going to see over five targets in this game, then he is, at best, a high-end WR4. You can flex him, but it’s riskier in a tough matchup. The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game for the tight end position. They have allowed 80 combined yards to eight opposing tight ends outside Mark Andrews. The Browns know how to shut down tight ends. Star tight end Pat Freiermuth is supposed to return from IR this week. If he returns, I don’t expect much in his first game. He will likely see a reduced role in his first game back in action and comes into an extremely tough matchup. Freiermuth would be a low-end TE2. Connor Heyward would get the start again if Freiermuth is out, but he would be outside the top 24.
The Browns pass catches take a big hit with the switch to Thompson-Robinson. All the receivers finished under 25 yards, with DTR as the starter. The Steelers have been a bottom-ten unit against fantasy receivers this year. They have allowed at least one 60-yard receiver in every game this year. They have given up touchdowns but are usually focused on one receiver. They have allowed nine receiving touchdowns to only six receivers. Last time, Amari Cooper had a stellar game with seven receptions for 90 yards. Cooper could be concerned with DTR at quarterback, but he should focus on his role as the primary target leader. In a better matchup, the passing game will be fine, and Cooper is a safe, high-end WR3 in fantasy.
Elijah Moore is coming off his best fantasy output of the season with 12 points. Moore has been a letdown in fantasy as he hasn’t seen a game over 60 yards, and week ten was his first touchdown of the season. Now, with a rookie quarterback, Moore is the best WR5 in fantasy. Cedric Tillman is playing as the third receiver but has done nothing with his increased snap usage, so he is outside the top 60. The Steelers allow the fourth-fewest points per game for the tight end position. This is weird since they gave up a 60-yard tight end in three of the last five games. The one touchdown on the season has kept the scoring output low. David Njoku did well with DTR, with 46 yards in a tough game. Njoku should be a solid play as a high-end TE2. Njoku produces around eight fantasy points and is likely a safety blanket for the rookie.
Chicago Bears vs Detriot Lions
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Ford Field
- Weather – Indoors:)
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -7.5) & Over/Under 47.5
Identifying the Game Script
We have our second divisional game of the weekend with the Bears and the Lions. This would be the first of two meetings this year. Last time, the Lions destroyed the Bears 41-10 at home. These teams’ average combined score was 48.8 over the previous five games. The Lions are coming off a shoot-out win over the Chargers. The Bears took care of business on TNF over the Panthers. We will look at the Bears with Justin Fields back to take advantage of the Lions up and down secondary to make some noise in Week 11. The Lions seem at full strength on offense, so expect them to do many different things to take down an average Bears defense. This game screams high scoring and may be one of the most exciting games of the weekend.
Justin Fields returns to the field in Week 11 after missing the last four games. Fields had a nasty hand injury that kept him from being able to grip the football for some time. Fields started picking it up in fantasy as he finished with 35 fantasy points in weeks four and five. The Lions secondary has been up and down over the last five weeks. They have allowed three of five opposing quarterbacks to throw for three passing touchdowns on them. They let an opposing quarterback throw for over 300 passing yards in two of the last three weeks. They also had held a few quarterbacks under 210 passing yards and zero touchdowns. Fields has done decent in fantasy against the Lions in three career games. While his passing is nothing to brag about, he has averaged 96 rushing yards in three games. Fields was opening up his passing game before the injury, so I expect that to continue. To be safe, Justin Field is a solid, high-end QB2 that could have QB1 upside if he is fully healthy.
Jared Goff rebounded nicely coming off the bye after two poor games following up the bye week. It seems likely Goff enjoys more success when playing in a dome than on an outside field. Goff averages 275 passing yards and one touchdown per game in outdoor games. While the split isn’t crazy, more in a dome with 281 yards, he averages two touchdowns per game. The Bears game is in a dome, and they allow the four most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed good passing offenses to have QB1 outings against them. Goff’s main issue is that the run game is so good that it can hurt Goff’s touchdown upside in fantasy. In a home game in this favorable matchup, I trust Goff can get over 250 yards and two touchdowns. He is a low-end QB1 in Week 11.
For the Bears backfield, it will be a complete mess this time. Khalil Herbert should be making his return on Sunday. D’Onta Foreman has had three of five games over 80 rushing yards in Herbert’s absence. He has been handling the groundwork, while Roschon Johnson has dealt with the passing down role. The matchup will be difficult for this three-person committee. The Lions rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs this season. They have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league. In recent weeks, they have allowed three straight runners over 60 yards and a touchdown.
The question is, who could be that player for the Bears? It’s likely not Roschon Johnson, as he hasn’t proven to be a fantasy source this year. He would likely be outside the top 50 if all three running backs played. I doubt the Bears will give Khalil Herbert the full workload in his first game, but he would be more of a high-end RB4 since he is very talented. D’Onta Foreman gets one more game as the workhorse for the team as an RB3 in fantasy this week. If Herbert misses again, the Foreman would jump to a low-end RB2, and Johnson would be an RB4. The hot-hand approach is how the Bears backfield works moving forward.
For the Lions backfield, it is a two-man show with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Last week, they alternated drives. We’ll have to see if Montgomery’s role expands this week since he only played 35% of the offensive snaps in his first game back. Gibbs has been amazing, with 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games. The Bears are a middle-of-the-road run defense, but they are better against the run than most. In the last six games, they haven’t allowed a running back over 50 yards or a rushing touchdown. Their run defense has been underrated this season. They struggle with passing production to running backs, as they have allowed the most receiving yards to the position. Montgomery should receive more work than last week, likely only on the ground. He has a prime opportunity to score a touchdown, so he is a mid-range RB2. Gibbs showed he needed to be used often in the offense. His ability as a pass catcher feeds into this great matchup. Gibbs should be an RB1 in Week 11.
For the Bears pass catchers, DJ Moore is jumping in value with the return of Justin Fields. Moore has been under ten fantasy points since Fields has gotten hurt. While he has remained a solid low-end WR3 in that time, his upside was capped. The Lions are a team you can throw on, and they give up plenty of passing touchdowns. They gave up four touchdowns to the Chargers in Week 10. DJ Moore was great with Justin Fields, as they seem to have built up a connection. In a matchup that could be higher scoring, Moore should see seven-plus targets and a solid low-end WR2 in Week 11.
Darnell Mooney would be the only other receiver worth mentioning here. He was a little more productive with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, but this is a good matchup. Mooney is ranked sixth in slot snaps played, and the Lions have allowed plenty of production to slot receivers. For the tight end position, the Lions have allowed production. They have not allowed much in the last two weeks, but a tight end could easily average 40 yards against them. Cole Kmet has done well in the previous three weeks with a backup under center. He was a little hot and cold under Justin Fields, so hopefully, he can keep up this production. As a borderline TE1, Kmet is the right call for fantasy lineups.
For the Lions pass catchers, it is not the cake matchup we think will be for them. The Bears have not allowed many receivers to have big games. All season long, the Bears have only allowed one receiver to produce over 70 receiving yards, which was back in week two. They have given up a touchdown in eight of ten games, which is promising for one of them to score on Sunday. Amon-Ra St.Brown is locked to be WR1 in Week 11. He is seeing a high target share and is dominating this season. It’s interesting that St. Brown only averages 68.5 yards in four career games against the Bears.
Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams are likely outside the top 60 receivers in week 11. Neither one sees a good target share and is not producing for fantasy. I have more faith in Kalif Raymond to produce since they like using him differently in the offense. I see him as a low-end WR5 in Week 11. For the tight end position, Sam LaPorta is a beast for fantasy. He has a solid floor of four receptions for 50 yards. He has an upside, especially in the red zone, to see opportunities to score touchdowns. The Bears have allowed a tight end touchdown in two of the last three games. We’ve seen many of the good tight ends be able to produce over 40 yards in games. La Porta should be a fine TE1 in Week 11.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Green Bay Packers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Lambeau Field
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -3.0) & Over/Under 43.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Packers and the Chargers haven’t played each other since the 2019 season. The Chargers would get a win at home 26-11. The Chargers are coming off a shoot-out loss to the Lions last week. The Packers would take another tough loss to the Steelers on the road. The Chargers have a tough matchup in the air as the Packers secondary is strong. They will need to find ways to get their star running back the ball on the ground, as the Packers run defense is weak. The Packers offense has a great opportunity, as the Chargers’ secondary can’t stop anyone this season. This could be a high-scoring outing, but it will come down to whether the inconsistent Packers offense can step up.
Justin Herbert was able to bounce back in a big way in week ten. He has two of the last three games with over 30 fantasy points. The Packers are a tough matchup as they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Packers have allowed just one quarterback to pass over 250 yards this season. They also give up just eight passing touchdowns this season. They haven’t played too many high-level quarterbacks, but we saw Kirk Cousins go for 274 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t even finish the game, so Herbert has a chance. If Keenan Allen plays, Herbert should be fine in this matchup. He may not have the usual upside, but he is a low-end QB1 in Week 11.
After not doing it since week three, Jordan Love finally got back in the 20 fantasy point range last week. Love has been a fine QB2 in Superflex leagues most weeks, but the turnovers are a killer to his fantasy finishes. The Chargers allow the second most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Chargers allow the most passing yards this season, with every quarterback over 230 yards. The touchdowns come in situations when they do face elite quarterbacks. Love should be able to do something in this game since he has the weapons to be great. He hasn’t been very accurate this season, with a 59% completion percentage. It’s a plus matchup for him. He is a solid mid-range QB2.
For the Chargers backfield, Austin Ekeler is back as a star with 19 fantasy points in three straight games. Most of his work is coming off four touchdowns in three games, but that’s what Ekeler does. The Packers are a favorable matchup for the backfield. They have allowed three 80-yard rushers in the last four games. They are also a team that has been giving up rushing touchdowns more recently. They have allowed seven in the previous six games. Ekeler should be able to use his talents in the passing game, as I don’t see any clear path that the defense is stopping that. Ekeler should be able to score in this game and see his usual 18-plus touches. He is an RB1 in Week 11. Joshua Kelley is back to not doing much and is outside the top 50 running backs.
The Packer’s backfield continues to disappoint in fantasy. Last week, Aaron Jones was terrible with his 2.7 YPC, and AJ Dillion decided to be efficient with nine carries for 70 yards. The Chargers rank in the bottom ten against fantasy running backs. They went through a stretch where they stopped running backs but were destroyed in week ten. They are also a team that allowed pass-catching production to running backs. They have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to a running back in 2023. This screams like a matchup for Aaron Jones to thrive, but he has not been trustworthy. He is still not 100%, with limited practice this week. Jones is more of a high-end RB3 since his role as a pass catcher could be valuable if he gets it. My trust level with him is not that high. I want to trust AJ Dillion, but he is inconsistent in fantasy. Dillion is a low-end RB3; you must pray that he can get at least eight points. He has shown a decent floor over the last five weeks.
For the Chargers pass catchers, it’s a tough matchup as the Packers rank in the top ten. They shut down players like Cooper Kupp and Dointae Johnson the last two weeks, but that was more the quarterback situation than anything. The Packers ranking is not showing the full picture of what this secondary is about. They have allowed nine receivers over 60 yards this season. I think a player like Keenan Allen should be fine in this matchup. Allen has seen nine-plus targets in each of the last five games. Allen was limited in practice, but he should play Sunday. He is a WR1 in this matchup. I’m a little more nervous about Quentin Johnston as his targets aren’t seeing a big spike, with just four last week in a shoot-out game. It’s a tough matchup for the young rookie on the road. I have Johnston as more of a WR5 in Week 11.
A player like Jalen Guyton stepped up with six targets and finished with 12 fantasy points. Guyton used to be the team’s deep threat and is finally back after being on IR for most of the season. He is an interesting player but likely outside the top 60 unless he shows he is the WR2 on this team. After not practicing all week, Gerald Everett will probably miss this game for the tight-end position. That would put Donald Parham back in the starting role. The Packers have been a better team against tight ends, with only one tight end over 40 yards in the last five games. They also have given up just two touchdowns to the position. Parham is a low-end TE2 in this matchup. Keep your eyes on Stone Smartt, who saw three targets and increased playing time when Everet left last week.
For the Packers pass catchers, they have a terrific matchup in Week 11. The Chargers allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have been better in the last three weeks, with only one receiving touchdown after allowing nine in the first seven weeks. Outside the Lions in week ten, they haven’t faced good receiver groups in the last month. The Packers have great receivers but aren’t used as great receivers. If I trust one of the receivers, it’s Jayden Reed. The Chargers struggle with the slot; that is where Reed has been lining up. He has 80 yards in two of the last three games. I do expect the Packers to find a way to take advantage of a bad secondary. Reed is a low-end WR3 in Week 11.
Romeo Doubs would be second for me as a high-end WR4. Doubs is the clear target in the red zone, and it has shown. He has a touchdown in three of his last four games following the week six bye. His yardage is low, so he has been very touchdown-dependent. Christian Watson is practicing this week, so he should play in this matchup. He has been a big disappointment since the Packers bye, with four straight games under five points. Whether it’s the injuries or the connection with Love, he is a WR5 in Week 11 for me. The Chargers also rank in the bottom 10 for the tight end position. They have allowed six tight ends over 40 yards. Luke Musgrave has been solid the last two weeks, with 50 yards in back-to-back games. He is a nice high-end TE2 with some sleeper appeal.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Hardrock Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -13.0) & Over/Under 46.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time that the Dolphins and the Raiders faced off against each other was back in 2021. The Raiders would win in a high-scoring overtime game 31–28 at home. The Raiders are coming off an ugly win on SNF to the Jets. The Dolphins had a much-needed bye week after losing to the Chiefs in Germany. For the Raiders offense, it won’t be easy against the Dolphins healthy defense now, but they should likely continue running the ball to move their offense down the field. The Dolphins won’t have a cakewalk matchup, as the Raiders are pretty good on defense. We know how this Dolphins offense is when they are at home and should expect this game to likely be one-sided very early.
Aidan O’Connell is coming off his best game of his rookie season. Unfortunately, he only produced ten fantasy points, but it was a tough matchup against the Jets last week. It seems like the Raiders are putting O’Connell in a position not to turn the ball over or do too much. The Dolphins defense has allowed just one quarterback to pass over 220 yards in the last five games. They have allowed three straight games of at least two passing touchdowns. I’m not sure if the Dolphins secondary is elite yet, but they have gotten some star players back in that secondary that will hopefully start showing on the field. The Raiders have been ahead in games, allowing them to run the Baltimore, which takes the pressure off of O’Connell. I assume that O’Connell will have to throw the ball more in this outing to come back against the Dolphins. I’m not crazy about O’Connell, but as a borderline QB2, he may be a decent play in Superflex leagues if you’re desperate.
Tua Tagovailoa is heading home, where he has dominated fantasy football. He averaged over 300 yards and had a 12:3 touchdown/interception ratio. We all know how Miami does against teams with bad records. Tua is either a 27-point fantasy player or a 14-point player. He is a very boom-or-bust fantasy quarterback option. The Raiders have become a strong secondary against fantasy quarterbacks, ranking in the top ten. They have allowed a quarterback to throw for two passing touchdowns since week three. They have only allowed three quarterbacks over 250 passing yards. If you look at some of the Raiders opposing quarterbacks (Zach Wilson, Tommy DeVito, Tyson Baegnet, Mac Jones, Jordan Love), that’s not a great group of fantasy quarterbacks. I’m not nervous that Tua can’t have one of his boom games in Week 11. Tua is a QB1 in this matchup.
For the Raiders backfield, it has been all about Josh Jacobs. In the last two games, Jacobs has over 25 carries and has at least 95 rushing yards. The Raiders have gotten ahead in the previous two games, allowing Jacobs to run the ball the entire time. The Dolphins run defense has been solid this year, but they have allowed a 60-yard rusher in three of the last four games. They have not allowed much passing production to a pass-catching running back with just two backs over 30 receiving yards. From what we have seen from this Raiders backfield, Josh Jacobs is a workhorse back for this team. No other running back is seeing much production or opportunities whatsoever. I’m still very confident that Jacob will see 18+ carries in this game and should finish as at least a low-end RB1 in Week 11.
We may see a four-man committee on Sunday for the Dolphins’ backfield. Rasheem Mostert has been the lead guy all season. Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed have split the backup duties, with Ahmed still playing more than Wilson. Rookie star DeVon Achane is returning to the field, as the RB24 has only played in four games this year. The Raiders are a bottom-ten run defense in 2023. They allow the second-most yards on the season. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in three of the last four games. They have given up a bunch of touchdowns to opposing running backs. Rasheem Mostert should come in as the starter and see a good portion of the early downs and passing work in the offense. He is a strong RB2 in Week 11. Jeff Wilson, we can say he is outside the top 50 running backs, and likely the same for Salvon Ahmed. Don’t be surprised if Ahmed still plays most of the third downs. Devon Achane is a wild card since we have no idea if the Dolphins will give him the work he had before the injury right away. Achane only needs a few touches to be productive for fantasy. A safe move would be to rank him as a high-end RB3 that you can flex. Don’t be surprised if he blows up or sees three touches in the game.
For the Raiders pass catchers, they do have a tough matchup against the Dolphins in Week 11. In the last five games, the Dolphins have only allowed two receivers over 50 yards. They have given up a receiving touchdown in four straight games, though. The apparent big news in the Raiders offense is that Davante Adams has struggled over the last month and a half of the fantasy season. He had a respectful game against a tough Jets secondary with 11 fantasy points. Before that, he did have under ten fantasy points in five straight games. He sees the targets, but the talent at quarterback has seemed to drop Adams’ fantasy production. I think Adams is talented enough to work against this secondary, but O’Connell will need to get him the ball and better situations. Adams is a low-end WR2. I don’t see the upside in his game, but he should offer a solid floor.
Jakobi Meyers has also struggled in the last three weeks outside of getting a rushing touchdown. He has had five receptions for 78 receiving yards in the previous three games. Under O’Connell, Meyers is only averaging about three targets per game. Under Jimmy G, he was seeing almost double-digit targets in each game. Meyers has dropped to a low-end WR4, for his lack of targets is a concern under the rookie quarterback. For the position, Michael Mayer caught a touchdown in Week 10. Unfortunately, Mayer has just two games over five fantasy points this season. His fantasy day would have looked grim if he had not caught that touchdown in Week 10. The Dolphins have only allowed three tight ends over 40 yards and have given up just one touchdown since week three to a tight end. Mayer is a low-end TE2 in Week 11.
The Dolphins pass catchers have a more challenging matchup on Sunday. The Raiders do rank in the top ten against fantasy receivers on a per-game basis. Their thing is that they have allowed just one receiving touchdown to a receiver since week five. They are a tough matchup, but there is no way most defenses can stop Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. Hill is coming off his worst game since week four of the season. Hill is on a historic pace, so I expect him to continue that in Week 11 and finish as a WR1. Waddle has been up and down in fantasy, but he has tremendous upside in his game. He is a solid WR2 that you can trust in lineups. No one else has stood out besides Cedrick Wilson, but that’s only because he caught two touchdowns in the last two games. He is still outside the top 60. The tight end position with Durham Smythe is nonexistent for fantasy and is outside the top 24.
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Fedex Field
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (WAS -9.0) & Over/Under 37.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is the second matchup between the Giants and the Commanders. Last time, the Giants would win a surprise game 14-7 over the Commanders. These teams have averaged 36.3 total points per game over their previous five meetings. The Giants are coming off a big loss to the Cowboys. The Commanders would lose to the Seahawks in the final moments. The Giants will have to find a way to throw the ball, as the Commanders are terrible in the secondary this year. The Commanders must win this game and get the ball to their star players. The Giants defense overall is awful, so whether the Commanders run or pass, it will get the job done. I’m not expecting much from either one of these teams to do a whole lot.
Tommy DeVito played well in fantasy despite only having 86 passing yards in the game. He threw for two touchdowns and had 40 rushing yards. The Commanders allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Not a single opposing quarterback has under 218 passing yards this season. Only one quarterback didn’t throw for at least two passing touchdowns in the last seven weeks. DeVito is probably on the same level as Mac Jones, who didn’t throw for two. I’d probably have DeVito as a QB3, but there could be some deep sleeper potential in Week 11. The matchup is so good, but the talent and offense have many question marks in fantasy.
Sam Howell has been an absolute beast in fantasy football this season. He is the QB3 on the season with the most passing yards and 17 passing touchdowns. There have been only two games where Howell hasn’t gotten at least 17 fantasy points. The Giants can be thrown on this season as they have allowed four quarterbacks to have two plus passing touchdowns. One of Howell’s worst games did come from the Giants, as he threw for 249 yards with an interception. The Giants have lost some secondary players and traded Leonard Williams away on the defensive line. I think Howell will lighten up the Giants secondary at home this time. Howell is an easy QB1 in Week 11.
For the Giants backfield, they will lean on Saquon Barkley. Barkley dominated the last month but got stopped against the Cowboys. He is still the only player in the backfield seeing any type of opportunity. The Commanders are a team that can be run on. They have allowed a 50-yard rusher in essentially every game this season. They have allowed some type of touchdown to a running back in four straight games. They have allowed passing production, too, with a running back getting 40 receiving yards in four of the last five games. Barkley had over 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown the last time they faced the Commanders. Barkley should handle the majority of the work and be able to finish as an RB1.
For the Commanders backfield, Brian Robinson continues to produce in fantasy. He has six of 10 games with at least ten fantasy points. While his yardage is okay, he has eight total touchdowns on the season. He has shown he can work as a pass-catching running back in the NFL. The Giants allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They allow the most rushing yards on the season and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns. Robinson didn’t get it last time, with just 23 yards and a touchdown. I do expect that to be different in week 11. Robinson could be without Antonio Gibson to boost Robinson’s role in the passing game. I have Robinson as a high-end RB2 in Week 11, as he should be dominant. As I mentioned, Antonio Gibson has had DNP status for the last two practices, which makes him a possible miss in Week 11. Gibson has done well recently, with five receptions in three straight games. Gibson will be a high-end RB4 if he does play in Week 11.
The Giants pass catchers have a fantastic matchup as the Commanders allow the second most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed four receivers over 90 yards in the last three games. They have also given up five touchdowns in that span. The last time the receivers played the Commanders, only Jalin Hyatt gained over 30 receiving yards. I can’t confidently put any Giants receiver inside my top 60 list. They have been inconsistent and most unproductive in fantasy this year. If I had to choose one, it would be Darius Slayton, but I still wouldn’t want to play him. Daniel Bellinger has filled in nicely for the tight-end position as the starter, with over 30 yards in back-to-back games. The Commanders allowed a big game to Darren Waller the last time. They have given up a touchdown to a tight end in four of the previous six games. He has been the only somewhat consistent option in the offense. He is a mid-range TE2 with some sleeper appeal.
The Commanders pass catchers have a great matchup against the Giants, who allow the third most fantasy points to receivers. The Giants have allowed six receivers over 90 yards in the last six weeks. They have given up receiving touchdowns to outstanding passing offenses. The last time the Commanders played the Giants, Terry McLaurin was the only one to do anything. He had 90 yards in that game. McLaurin had a down week in week ten, but I expect him to bounce back in this matchup. McLaurin’s highest yardage of the season came in the game against the Giants. McLaurin should see seven-plus targets in this game and finish as a mid-range WR2 in Week 11.
After two strong games in the prior two weeks, Jahan Dotson was a major flop in week ten. Curtis Samuel did return in week ten, which was part of the concern with Dotson. If Samuel’s role expands back to normal, Dotson could be a big issue again in fantasy. Dotson is more of a low-end WR4 that comes with some risk. Samuel is a high-end WR5 in this matchup until he returns to form. For the tight end position, the Giants rank in the top ten. They have only allowed one tight end over 30 yards in the last five weeks. That one tight end was Logan Thomas, who did produce. Thomas has been decent for the tight end position. He has 40 yards in six of nine games this year. He is a low-end TE1 that is a safe play.
Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Bank of America Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -10.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time that the Cowboys and Panthers played each other was in 2021. Dallas would win a high-scoring game 36-28 at home. The Cowboys are coming off another dominant performance against the Giants. The Panthers couldn’t get anything on offense after a TNF loss to the Bears. The Cowboys need to get their run game going, especially against one of the worst run defenses in the Panthers. The Panthers offense needs to get something, anything, going, but it will be challenging since the Cowboys defense is elite. We could see another one-sided game, especially for fantasy, in Week 11.
Dak Prescott continues to impress in fantasy as the pass attack has been on fire since their week seven bye. Prescott has over 300 yards in each game and 11 passing touchdowns. It seems like the passing offense can’t be stopped by anyone right now. The Panthers do rank inside the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. Since the Panthers week seven bye, they have kept all three opposing quarterbacks under 170 yards and just one total passing touchdown. Before their bye week, they allowed two straight games of 230 yards and three passing touchdowns. I will lean on the red-hot Dak Prescott to continue what he has been doing the last three weeks. Prescott is a QB1 in Week 11.
Bryce Young seems to have worsened in each game following the bye week. He has just two passing touchdowns and is averaging 189 passing yards. The Cowboys are a top-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. In the last five games, quarterbacks have been able to do better against them. They have allowed two passing touchdown games in four of the previous five games. Those four quarterbacks have been able to put up at least 16 fantasy points or more in a game. Young has not been as impressive as his fellow draftees as a rookie. I have Young outside the top 24 quarterbacks in Week 11. The run game isn’t working, so the passing game is being defended well. Young has thrown just seven touchdowns and is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game.
For the Cowboys backfield, Tony Pollard has been nonexistent for fantasy. He has five of the last six games under eight fantasy points. Pollard has been under 60 rushing yards since week three and hasn’t scored since week one. The team is being successful, but Pollard is doing nothing to contribute to that. The reason why the Panthers have been good in the passing game is that their run defense sucks. The Panthers allow the second most fantasy points per game to running backs. While they have only allowed one running back over 50 yards in the last three weeks, they are a terrible unit. They have allowed a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns this year and four running backs over 90 yards. I have to rank Pollard as a high-end RB2 since I can’t trust he will do enough to produce big in fantasy. This would be the game he goes off, but it’s risky. Rico Dowdle could get more work after doing well in garbage time last week. He is an RB4 since he would need a touchdown or significant fourth-quarter play to be good.
Things have not looked great for the Panthers, backfield since their bye week. Chuba Hubbard took over the starting job from Miles Sanders but has been very inefficient the last three weeks. He has run under 4.0 YPC and has not eclipsed ten fantasy points since their bye week. It shows that Miles Sanders is nonexistent in this offense, with just 10 carries over the last three games. We could see a change in the starting running back, but we must wait and see. The Cowboys are a top-10 run defense in 2023. They have allowed just three running backs over 60 rushing yards. They have given up two rushing touchdowns in the last three games. Overall, the Cowboys defense is tough to run on, especially since most teams are playing from behind against them. Hubbard is, at best, an RB3 in this matchup. For Sanders, the only hope is that he sees more work based on Chuba Hubbard’s recent struggles. He is a borderline RB4 in Week 11.
The Cowboys pass catchers have a tough matchup on paper with the Panthers secondary. The Panthers allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed 11 receivers to produce over 50 yards against them. In the last three weeks, they have not allowed a receiver over 65 yards and haven’t given up a touchdown to the position. CeeDee Lamb is an easy WR1 in fantasy for this matchup. He has 150 yards in three straight games. He has been dominant since the week bye and wouldn’t expect anything less than an elite performance. Brandin Cooks is coming off a big game for 173 yards and a touchdown. He does have at least ten fantasy points in three of the last four games. I don’t think he is still completely trustworthy as a flex, but as a low-end WR4, where I would rank him.
Michael Gallup is losing his third spot on the team to Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert and Gallup played 19 snaps in the first half of last week’s game. Despite Gallup’s big game with two touchdowns, he was not a good player all season. He is outside my top 60 receivers. Jalen Tolbert is trying to carve a more significant role, but with just one productive game this year, he is also outside the top 60. For the tight end position, Jake Ferguson has been great as the number two target leader. He has double-digit fantasy points in three straight games. He looks like a great young tight end who is on his way to a breakout season. The Panthers have been good for the most part against tight ends, as no one has over 45 yards. Ferguson is such a big part of his offense, especially in the red zone, that he is an excellent low-end TE1.
For the Panthers pass catchers, the Cowboys allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The one positive note is that the Cowboys have allowed five receiving touchdowns over the last four games. Adam Thielen has struggled the last two weeks, under ten fantasy points after six straight games over 10. He is still seeing the target share, which is good for fantasy lineups, but if the production doesn’t improve, he could be dropping in rankings. Thielen is a mid-range WR2.
For the rest of the receivers, no one has stuck out in fantasy. DJ Chark is practicing in full but has not done much over the last month of the season. Rookie Jonathan Mingo had a solid game coming out of the bye week, but he has not been fantasy-relevant outside of that. Both receivers are outside the top 60 in Week 11. Panthers tight end Hayden Hurst hasn’t practiced all week and is likely out for Week 11. That would put Tommy Tremble as the starting tight end in this game. Tremble hasn’t done much this year, so he’s already outside the top 24 tight ends.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Everbank Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (JAX -7.0) & Over/Under 39.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is the first divisional game of the season between the Titans and the Jaguars. The last time they played, the Jaguars would win 20-16 at home over the Titans. They combined 42.2 total points per game in the previous five outings. The Titans are coming off a loss to the Bucs, which was supposed to be a favorable matchup. The Jaguars would get embarrassed by the 49ers and a big-time loss. The Titans offense needs to help Will Levis find time to throw downfield, as the Jags secretary has been terrible this year. The Jaguars need to get some consistency on offense, and the Titans, overall, do not have a very good defense. I do like this game to be a little high-scoring.
After a tremendous first game two weeks ago, Will Levis has shown his rookie side with under ten fantasy points in the last two games. Levis has seen a ton of pressure the last two weeks, causing lousy quarterback play. After throwing four touchdowns in the first game, he has yet to throw a touchdown but has turned the ball over two times. Like last week, the Jaguars are a favorable matchup as they allow the fifth most fantasy points per game. The Jaguars have allowed over 300 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in six of nine games. In the last four weeks, they have allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than one passing touchdown. We’ve seen young quarterbacks like CJ Stroud and Desmond Ridder be able to put in decent outings against the Jaguars defense. Unfortunately, I need to see it again from Levis to be comfortable putting him in most lineups, but in Superflex leagues, he is a low-end QB2 with upside and Week 11.
Trevor Lawrence remains a major disappointment in fantasy football after just a two-point fantasy day in Week 10. Lawrence only has two games with two passing touchdowns this year. Lawrence is coming into a matchup against the Titans that won’t be that easy. The Titans have only allowed ten passing touchdowns on the season. Since week four, they have allowed just one passer over 240 passing yards and five total touchdowns to the quarterback. Unfortunately, Lawrence is no longer considered a QB1; at best, he is a mid-range QB2 this week. He’s not throwing touchdowns nor seeing big yards in games on a week-to-week basis, so there’s no trust level in playing him in this matchup unless you’re in Superflex leagues.
For the Titans running backs, it was a dreadful week ten. Derrek Henry had a terrible outing with just under three fantasy points after three games over ten fantasy points. For Tyjae Spears, he had his best game since week five of the season. For the last two weeks, we have seen Tyjae Spears play more snaps than Derrek Henry in the offense. The Jaguars have been a top-10 run defense in 2023. They have allowed just three running backs over 50 yards this season. They haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in the last three weeks and even stopped the great CMC from scoring for the first time in forever. Their weakness against running backs has been in the passing game, as running backs have produced over 40 receiving yards in the last four weeks.
We’ll have to see which Derrek Henry shows up, as he has owned the Jaguars over his career. In 13 games, Henry averages 100 yards and a touchdown. I put some faith in Henry’s will to do something in this matchup. He is a low-end RB1 in Week 11. For Spears, he needs to continue finding ways to work in the passing game. He has 15 targets over the last three weeks, but only one game has gotten him over 10 yards. He needs to find work in the passing game to be productive in week 11. He is a high-end RB4 in this matchup.
The backfield had its worst game for the Jaguars since week two of the NFL season. Before week nine, Travis Etienne had four straight games over 20 fantasy points. It seems like Etienne was a product of getting touchdowns more than his efficiency on the fields through nine games. He still averages only 3.9 YPC but does have eight touchdowns on the season. This is a good matchup, as the Titans have been very lenient to running backs the last month. They have allowed running backs to run over 50 yards in the previous three games. They also have allowed a rushing touchdown in two of the last three games. ETN needs to get back to running the ball and seeing over 15 carries again. I still trust that Etienne can be productive and give us a nice low-end RB1 finish in Week 11, especially since no one else is taking work from him.
It has not been a fun season for the Titans pass catchers outside of mostly DeAndre Hopkins. The Jaguars have been the middle of the road against fantasy wide receivers this year. In the last four weeks, they have allowed just two wide receivers over 60 yards but have given up four receiving touchdowns. After Hopkins’ blowup game three weeks ago, he has been under ten fantasy points and has combined for 87 receiving yards. If rookie Will Levis were playing better, I’d have more faith in DeAndre Hopkins, but for this matchup, he is only a WR3. He is likely a slight risk as a flex option, just due to the poor production this year.
It looks like Treylon Burks will miss another game due to an injury. This opens the door for a guy like Kyle Philips in the slot to give some potential value in this matchup. He has 60 yards in back-to-back games on only ten targets. He is a high-end WR5 in this matchup. Other players like Chris Moore and Nick Westbrook Ikhine are outside the top 60 receivers. The Jaguars allow the second most fantasy points for the tight end position. Unfortunately, a lot of that production is inflated by just a few tight ends who went off against the Jaguars. Chig Okonkwo had a great opportunity last week and failed to live up to his potential. Rookie Josh Whyle is starting to see more work as a pass catcher. Okonkwo is, at best, a borderline TE2 in Week 11.
The Jaguars pass catchers have a favorable matchup, as the Titans are in the bottom ten against fantasy receivers. They have allowed a receiving touchdown in four of five games. They also have given up a 90-yard receiver in the last two weeks. Christian Kirk remains the bright spot among these receivers, as he has double-digit fantasy points in seven games this season. I also trust Christian Kirk as a solid WR2 in this matchup. Calvin Ridley has just one game over five fantasy points in the last four weeks. He continues to be a major disappointment this fantasy season. He also has under five targets in two of the previous three games. Ridley is a little bust/boom fantasy receiver. He is a low-end WR3 that can be a flex option.
Zay Jones may be out in this game due to his recent off-the-field situation despite having limited practices this week. The Titans allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Evan Engram did not do well in week ten, as I projected he wouldn’t. He has been a consistent tight end over the season’s first eight weeks. As I said, this matchup won’t be easy as the Titans haven’t given up a touchdown to the position and just two tight ends over 40 yards. Due to the nature of the position for the tight end, I’d still give Engram a low-end TE1 ranking.
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ NRG Stadium
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (HOU -6.0) & Over/Under 47.5
Identifying the Game Script
It’s not surprising, but the Cardinals and Texans have only played each other five times in 21 years. They last played in 2021, when the Cardinals dominated the Texans 31–5. The Cardinals are coming off the last-minute win to the Falcons. The Texans would win in a statement game over the Bengals. The Cardinals offense looked much better now that Kyler Murray is back at quarterback. They need to take advantage of how bad the Texans are against tight ends. The Texans have a fantastic matchup, as the Cardinals defense has been awful this season in the air, especially the run game. I do like this matchup to be sneaky high-scoring, and it could end up having the best fantasy day among all matchups.
Kyler Murray’s return to the starting lineup was solid for fantasy. He finished with 17 fantasy points as he ran in a touchdown. The Texans have been up and down against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed two quarterbacks with two passing touchdowns in the last two weeks. The prior seven quarterbacks the Texans faced combined for five passing touchdowns. They have allowed a quarterback in the previous five games to throw for over 230 passing yards. Murray should be in for a solid fantasy day. He has good weapons and looked good running the ball. Murray can be a borderline QB1 in Week 11.
CJ Stroud has back-to-back great fantasy games in weeks nine and ten. Stroud is having a fantastic rookie season with 15 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions. The Cardinals are a bottom-ten team against fantasy quarterbacks. The Cardinals have been hot and cold in their secondary, and teams that don’t have a great run game seem to thrive. The Texans run game still has question marks, so Stroud should pass a lot in this game. He does get Nico Collins back, so that should help his cause. Stroud is a QB1 in Week 11.
James Conner returned to action for the Cardinals backfield with 73 rushing yards. Connor was doing well in the early portion of the season, so he should be able to get back to form. It was slightly concerning that Murray didn’t throw to his running backs once. The Texans have given up three rushing touchdowns in the last two games. They have only allowed two running backs over 50 yards in the previous four games. The Texans seem to have sure up their run defense. James Connor should continue to see more off the offensive work in the offense. He should be a low-end RB2 in Week 11. Emari Demercado did have limited practice all week, so he may play. He would likely be outside the top 50 running backs unless he saw targets in the backfield. The team picked up Michael Carter, but he won’t impact this game.
We get to see Devin Singletary again for the Texans backfield since Damien Peirce is out again. Singletary was big last week, as he had 150 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a touchdown in each of the last three games. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in seven of the previous eight games. If Singletary can see upward of 18 carries, he has a great chance of having another strong game. Singletary should be a mid-range RB2 in Week 11. Mike Boone played as the third down back but is outside the top 50 running back.
For the Cardinals pass catchers, Hollywood Brown was disappointing in his first game with Murray, as he had just one catch for 28 yards. He should be able to bounce back since he has had good games with Murray. The Texans are ranked in the top ten against fantasy receivers this year. They have only allowed four receiving touchdowns on the season. They have fallen apart recently, as they have given up six receivers over 70 yards in the last four games. Brown should be a solid high-end WR3, as he is a safe flex player. It was encouraging to see Rondale Moore get eight targets but only had 40 yards. Michael Wilson is still an exciting young player, and I hope to see more work with Murray in this game. They are both low-end WR5s. The Texans allow the fifth most fantasy points per game for the tight end position. Trey McBride had a monster game with Murray, with over 131 yards. He is a TE1 in Week 11.
The Texans pass catchers are again without one of the big four of the team. Noah Brown has been declared out with an injury. Nico Collins is back in after missing last week with an injury. Tank Dell had another great game; of course, Bob Woods is there. The Cardinals have allowed a touchdown to a receiver in four of the last five games. In that span, only four receivers have produced over 60 yards. Over the season, they have allowed four receivers over 150 receiving yards in a game. These receivers have a big opportunity to produce. Collins jumps back into that low-end WR2 role, as he should be the one who has the big game here. Tank Dell is electric and has three touchdowns in the last two games. He should be a high-end WR3 in this game.
Dalton Schultz has been very good this season for the tight end position. He has over 200 receiving yards over the last two weeks. He has been on and off as the team’s number two pass catcher. The Cardinals rank in the top ten against tight ends with only three over 40 yards. They have given up a touchdown in two of the last three games. Schultz’s involvement is too hard to pass on, and he should be a low-end TE1 in Week 11.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 p.m. @ Levi’s Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (TB -12.0) & Over/Under 41.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Bucs and 49ers are facing off after playing in 2022. The 49ers would destroy the Bucs 35-7 at home. The Bucs are coming off a win over the Titans. The 49ers came alive and took down the red-hot Jaguars. The Bucs will look to get the passing game going, as that seems to be the only way you can beat the 49ers defense. The 49ers will need their quarterback to step up once again, as the Bucs secondary has been bad against good teams this year. I see this game being one-sided early on as the 49ers pull away.
Baker Mayfield has been a very solid fantasy quarterback, as he has three straight games with 23 fantasy points. Mayfield can put up 240 yards and two touchdowns in any game. The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The 49ers have allowed a quarterback in two of the last three games with 280 passing yards and two touchdowns. I think Mayfield could produce in this game. He is a tough quarterback and has been solid in fantasy this year. Mayfield is a solid QB2 in Week 11.
Brock Purdy is coming off back-to-back very good fantasy games. He has answered the call, having been the reason the 49ers went on a losing streak. The Bucs defense ranks in the bottom ten vs. fantasy quarterbacks this season. They allow the third most passing yards this season. We’ve seen great quarterbacks be able to have monster games against the Bucs. They have allowed 300 passing yards in three of the last four games. Purdy has all his weapons and will do well in this matchup. We can get back to the Purdy 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. I have Purdy as a QB1 since the Bucs run defense is good, and the 49ers will need to throw.
Rachaad White has been excellent in fantasy for the Bucs backfield the last four weeks. He has been over ten fantasy points in each game and has 90 all-purpose yards in those games. The 49ers allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this year. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in two of the last four games. The 49ers give up some production in the passing game to running backs. The 49ers are known for being a tough defense, so it seems easy to sit White in this matchup. White’s value in the receiving game will be there; that is how he has produced for us in fantasy. He has had 19 receptions for 228 yards in the last four weeks. White is a low-end RB2 in Week 11. Chase Edmonds is trying to do something but is still outside the top 50 running backs. This is White’s backfield for the season.
For the 49ers backfield, Christian McCaffrey is an elite option, but he needs to score a touchdown! CMC finally missed scoring a touchdown in week ten. He has a tough matchup in Week 11. The Bucs allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season and have kept all but one running back under 70 yards. CMC is a beast and will find ways to produce even in the worst matchups. CMC is an RB1 in Week 11.
For the Bucs pass catchers, it may be the easier matchup among the 49ers defense. They have allowed four straight games with 100-yard receivers. They have given up five receiving touchdowns in the last three games. Mike Evans is going to do well in this matchup. Evans has over ten fantasy points in seven of nine games this year. He has been on fire, making big plays in fantasy. Evans is playing as a WR1, and that is where he is ranked. Chris Godwin has been under ten fantasy points in three of the last four games. Godwin is seeing decent targets but is not producing great fantasy numbers, with only two games over 14 points. The touchdowns have hurt Godwin’s value with only one this season. Chris Godwin is a low-end WR 3 in week 11. Cade Otton returned to his two receptions for a 10-yard performance in week ten. The 49ers allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed just two tight ends over 30 yards. They haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown since week one. Cade Otton is a low-end TE2 in fantasy.
The 49ers pass catchers have a great matchup as the Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed 11 receivers over 60 yards this season and six over 100 yards. They have allowed five receiving touchdowns in the last three weeks. Deebo Samuel returned from injury and had 13 fantasy points in week 10. Deebo will find a way to produce, whether as a receiver or getting chances to run the ball. Samuel is a true weapon for the 49ers in the offense. Samuel is a solid low-end WR2. Brandon Aiyuk is going to dominate in fantasy football for Week 11. We’ve seen plenty of outside receivers dominate against the Bucs in fantasy. Aiyuk should be a WR1 in Week 11. For the tight-end position, the Bucs have allowed some production. They have allowed two tight ends over 60 yards and a touchdown in the last three games. George Kittle has back-to-back 19-point fantasy outings. He has seen 110 yards in both games as well. Kittle is a TE1, and you know the upside he offers you.
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ Highmark Stadium
- Weather – Clear Evening
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -7.0) & Over/Under 39.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is the second matchup between the Bills and the Jets. Last time, the Jets would win that overtime thriller with a punt return for a touchdown over the Bills. The Jets are coming off a bad loss to the Raiders. The Bills lost a heartbreaker on MNF to the Broncos. The Bills need to figure out their offense, as it has been up and down, and they don’t usually play well against the Jets. The Jets offense needs to take advantage of the Bills injury-prone defense and do something, especially in the game. I’m not expecting much between these two teams, as it will be low-scoring and bad for fantasy.
Zach Wilson is not an option in fantasy at the quarterback position. He does have two games with 14 fantasy points, which says a lot about his talent. He has one passing touchdown in the last five games. The Bills, on paper, rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. Last time, Wilson had ten fantasy points against the Bills. The Bills have allowed four straight games with opposing quarterbacks with two passing touchdowns. They have allowed 240 passing yards in three of the last four games. I can’t see Wilson doing enough to be more than a QB3. He has proven not to be a trusted option in lineups.
Josh Allen is coming off his worst game since week one against the Jets. Allen has been terrible against the Jets in his career. He averages less than one passing touchdown and 221 passing yards per game in 10 career games vs. the Jets. While Allen has been super this season with six games over 24 fantasy points, the Jets have Allen’s number. The Jets have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for two passing touchdowns. They have kept all three quarterbacks under 210 passing yards in the last three weeks. I’m buying the Allen bad games vs. the Jets, and he is a high-end QB2 in Week 11. You almost have to start him, but he is a significant liability in this game.
For the Jets backfield, Breece Hall is doing all he can for us in fantasy. Hall hasn’t been running well in the last four games, with a 2.9 YPC. Hall’s value has come in the passing game, as he has more receiving yards, with 187, than rushing yards, with 129, in those four games. The Bills have been a good matchup for fantasy running backs this year. In the last four games, they have kept the lead rusher under 40 yards in three of those games. The Bills have given up plenty of production in the passing game with five backs over 30 receiving yards. Last time, Hall had 127 rushing yards against the Bills. Hall should be an RB1 in Week 11. Now that Michael Carter was cut, Dalvin Cook should see a bump in snaps for this offense. He is the full-time backup. Cook should see more work and be an RB4 in Week 11. He would need a touchdown to have a day. Don’t forget about Israel Abanikanda, who will play in his first game in Week 11.
James Cook got benched for the Bills backfield, then came back with a strong game in week ten. Cook continues to underperform this season. He has four of the last six games under ten fantasy points. The Jets’ run defense is the easiest part of their elite defense. They have allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of the last four games. They have been a team that has only allowed three rushing touchdowns on the season. Last time, Cook had 46 yards but was a low-end RB2 in that game. Cook should remain the RB1 for this team despite Latavius Murray playing well in Week 10. Cook should be a low-end RB2 in this matchup. Murray is, at best, a RB4, as he would need a touchdown to be productive.
For the Jets pass catchers, Garrett Wilson is questionable for Sunday, but he states he will play. He has played well in fantasy, with 80 yards in four straight games. He hasn’t seen a touchdown since week two, which has capped his upside in fantasy. The Bills have been worst in the secondary, but not enough to be a layup matchup. They have only allowed two receivers over 60 yards in the last four games. They have allowed a receiving touchdown in three of the previous four games. Wilson is still a reliable fantasy option for our lineups, even with the injury concerns. He is a solid WR2 in Week 11. I can’t trust any other receiver on this Jets team. For Tyler Conklin, he has been great, with 60 yards in back-to-back games. The Bills aren’t an easy team against tight ends. They have allowed just one tight end over 50 yards. They have allowed a touchdown in two of the last four games. Conklin has seen six-plus targets in the previous two weeks. He is a TE2 in week 11.
It will be a tough matchup for the Bills pass catchers as the Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown since week one, which was to Stefon Diggs. They have allowed just four receivers over 50 yards this year. Stefon Diggs has done well against the Jets, and we saw in week one, where he had 100 yards and a touchdown. Diggs is a special player despite coming off his worst game of the season. Diggs should be able to bounce back and finish as a low-end WR1. Gabe Davis has averaged 37 receiving yards over seven career games vs. the Jets. Last time, Davis had 32 yards in Week 1. Davis is a low-end WR4 that I don’t want to risk in lineups.
Khalil Shakir fell back to earth with a one-catch game in week ten. I don’t see him being used as often in this matchup. It will be low-scoring and low yardage, so Shakir will struggle. He is outside the top 60 receivers. The Jets are ranked as a bottom-ten unit for the tight end position. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns to a tight end. They have been decent with yardage, with only three tight ends over 40 yards. Since becoming the starter, Dalton Kincaid has 272 yards on 28 receptions with two touchdowns. Kincaid has proven to be a TE1 in Week 11.
Seatle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SEA -0.5) & Over/Under 46.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is a rematch of an earlier game between these two teams this season. The Rams would win 30-13 on the road to the Seahawks. Seattle is coming in a last-second win over the Commanders. The Rams, off a bye, hope to have their quarterback after a bad loss in week nine. These teams’ starting quarterbacks have been very average this fantasy season. I think it will come down to who can run the ball better, and the Rams have a slight advantage against Seattle’s poor run defense. Both teams have solid reasons, so I expect this game to be slightly lower-scoring.
Geno Smith is coming off his best game of the season since week two. Smith has only been able to put up 20 fantasy points in two games this season. The matchup with the Rams won’t be as easy for Smith. The Rams have only allowed two quarterbacks to throw two or more passing touchdowns. The passing yardage could be decent since they have allowed 225 passing yards in five straight games. Smith had a terrible game last time with 115 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to consider Smith since he has been very disappointing in fantasy this season. Smith should be viewed as a mid-range QB2 in a more difficult matchup.
Matthew Stafford is playing worse than Smith in fantasy this year. Stafford barely has one game over 20 fantasy points. Stafford had hit for decent yardage, but the touchdowns don’t fall with eight on the season. The Seahawks were starting to come on strong in the secondary before week ten. For a three-game stretch, they stopped a quarterback from reaching 250 passing yards and allowed just two touchdowns in that span. Of course, then last week, Sam Howell threw all over them. The previous time Stafford played them, he threw for over 300 passing yards but scored zero touchdowns. Stafford hasn’t been trustable in fantasy this year. He is, at best, low-end QB2.
For the Seattle backfield, we’ve seen rookie Zach Charbonnet out snap Ken Walker in the backfield for the last three games. I’m unsure if part of that is either Walker’s injury or Seattle being down in the game. Walker’s day was saved thanks to a long reception that went for a touchdown. Walker has not been a great asset the last three weeks. The Rams are a middle-of-the-road team against fantasy running backs this year. In the previous five weeks, they have allowed at least a 50-yard rusher in four of them. They have also given up three receiving touchdowns in that span with minimal production in the passing game. Walker averages 70 yards over three career games vs. the Rams but hasn’t scored against them. Walker doesn’t seem like the sure thing at running back like he was earlier in the season. He is more of a mid-range RB2. Charbonnet sees more snaps, especially with having control of the third downs and two-minute offense. He has had seven fantasy points in two of the last three games. He is a low-end RB3 that has some upside in Week 11.
We will get one more week of Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman in the Rams backfield. Henderson has been a usable fantasy running back in two of the last three weeks, while Freeman has had one good week. Seattle is a favorable matchup as they rank in the bottom ten against fantasy running backs. It’s not Seattle’s run defense that is bad since they have only allowed two running backs over 55 yards this season. They have given six total touchdowns to a running back in the last three games. They are also a team that allowed passing production to the opposing running backs. I would assume Henderson is still the main guy on the Rams. He would be able to have a decent game. His pass-catching upside gives him borderline RB2 value. Royce Freeman has mostly been used on the ground, with at least nine carries in all three games. He is an RB4 in Week 11.
The Seattle pass catchers do have a tougher matchup than most. The Rams have been good at stopping fantasy receivers for most of the season. Until recently, the Rams had only given up one receiving touchdown on the season. In the last four weeks, they have given up four receivers over 60 yards with two over 100. DK Metcalf was decent in the week one matchup with 12 fantasy points. Metcalf is this team’s starter for a big target share. He has double-digit targets in three of four games. He is a WR2 in Week 11. Tyler Lockett has not practiced this week, so his status is questionable for Sunday. Lockett was not great last time, and the injury is a concern. He would be a low-end WR3 at best.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged four receptions for 52 yards since the bye week. His playing time has increased as he has played over 60% of the snaps since then. JSN is still limited since Lockett and Metcalf are on the field. He is a decent WR4; if Lockett were to miss, he would jump to WR3 status. He is still a risky flex play in fantasy. The Rams allow the second most fantasy points per game for the tight end position. They have allowed five receiving touchdowns to a tight end this year. They have allowed 40 yards or more in five of the last six outings. Last time, none of the tight ends did anything against the Rams. This group is a three-man committee outside the top 24 tight ends in Week 11.
For the Rams pass catchers, Seattle is not that easy of a matchup in fantasy. In the last four weeks, they have allowed just two receiving touchdowns. Since week four, they have only given up 60 yards to two opposing receivers. The secondary got healthy and has shown on the opposing receivers’ production. Cooper Kupp was coming off three straight games under ten fantasy points. It’s a slight concern in fantasy since Kupp is such an elite fantasy option. Having Stafford back in the lineup will help Kupp bounce back in fantasy. He has averaged 70 yards and half a touchdown per game over ten career games vs. the Seahawks. I will buy back in that Kupp is still a WR1.
Puka Nacua has cooled down, with three of the last four games under ten fantasy points. Nacua has seen seven-plus targets in every game this season, so his production will rebound. Nacua getting Stafford back will also help his production. Nacua is a solid WR2 in week 11. Tutu Atwell has fallen to nothing more than a WR5 that could have some boom in any game. Seattle can give up great yardage for the tight end position, with four tight ends over 40 yards in the last three games. The Seahawks have only given up one touchdown to the position. Tyler Higbee has been terrible in fantasy since week five. He has not seen a large target share and is not producing with the ones he does get. Higbee is a low end TE2.
Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos
Details of the Script
- SNF – 8:20 p.m. @ Empower Field at Mile High
- Weather – Clear Evening
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DEN -2.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Vikings and the Broncos haven’t faced off since the 2019 season. The Vikings would win 27–23 over the Broncos at home. The Vikings are coming off a strong win over the New Orleans Saints. The Broncos stunned the Bills on Monday night football to get a win in the final seconds. The Vikings need to establish the run, as the Broncos have an awful run defense this season. This also looks like a game in which tight-end TJ Hockenson may be able to thrive. For the Broncos, it’s continuing to improve on the passing game, as the Vikings have been iffy all season. This game looks to be an entertaining Sunday night football game that may have big fantasy implications.
Joshua Dobbs has been fantastic as a member of the Vikings. In his two starts, he has over 25 points in both games. Like his time with the Cardinals, Dobbs offers a rushing floor, and his fantasy production is consistent and reliable. The Broncos are ranked in the bottom ten against fantasy quarterbacks. The Broncos have only allowed four passing touchdowns in the last five games. They have allowed two of five quarterbacks over 200 passing yards in that same span. Dobbs doesn’t rely on his passing production to make his fantasy value. He has rushed over 50 yards in the last two games. Dobbs can be a solid, high-end QB2 in Week 11.
Russell Wilson has been on a nice little streak with two games over 20 fantasy points. Although it has been concerning, he has been under 200 passing yards in five straight games. In those last two games, he has had five passing touchdowns, which has made up for the lack of passing yardage. The Vikings are a tough secondary in the last month of the season, as they have allowed only five passing touchdowns over the previous five games. They have only allowed two quarterbacks over 250 passing yards in that span. Wilson has been solid over his last six games. He has a 12–2 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson at home should be fine for fantasy as a nice mid-range QB2.
For the Vikings’ backfield, it is a wait-and-see if Alexander Mattison is going to play on Sunday night. He is dealing with that concussion that the Vikings are trying to wait out as long as they can. This backfield has a fantastic matchup against the Broncos, who allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Broncos have allowed nine running backs to produce over 60 rushing yards this season. An opposing running back will end up with a decent outing against the Broncos. For Mattison, this could be considered our maker-break game for fantasy since he has been mediocre as a runner this season. A crazy stat is that Mattison has three receiving touchdowns but zero rushing touchdowns this year. Mattison should be a decent low-end RB2 in Week 11 if he plays. If Mattison doesn’t play, then Ty Chandler would get to start for the Vikings. Chandler saw 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 10. Chandler is a decent talent overall, and if he gets the starting role in this matchup, you could also plug him in for an RB2 finish. If Mattison plays, Chandler would only be an RB4.
Javonte Williams has planted himself as the RB1 for the Broncos backfield. William has 75 rushing yards in each of the last three games. That has helped him produce double-digit fantasy points in that span. The Vikings run defense is ranked in the top 10 in 2023. they have barely allowed two running backs to gain over 60 rushing yards. In the last six weeks, the Vikings have allowed a rushing touchdown in every other game, and this would be a touchdown game that they give up. Williams is continuing to play as the RB1 for this Broncos team. He should see most of the groundwork and find targets in this game to be successful. Williams is a high-end RB2 in Week 11. Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin are splitting work as backup to Williams. Neither has stepped up in the last three weeks to be productive in fantasy. They are both RB4s in this matchup.
The Vikings pass catchers have a tough matchup against the Broncos secondary. Since week five, the Broncos have allowed only one receiver over 60 yards. In that span, they only have given up three receiving touchdowns. Justin Jefferson is questionable for Sunday as he looks to return after missing the last five games. I don’t think he comes back yet, but if he does in this game, you must put him as a WR1. You must trust that he’s fully healed or close to it and will continue to be an elite option.
Jordan Addison has done a decent job filling in as the top receiver for the Vikings. He has been a WR3 or better in all five games. Even in this tough matchup, Addison is still WR3 with or without Justin Jefferson. KJ Osborn would be, at best, a WR5 in this game. TJ Hockenson has a fantastic matchup for the tight end position as the Broncos allow the third most fantasy points per game. The Broncos have allowed elite tight ends to produce on them, with all five of them going over 50 receiving yards. TJ Hockenson has been on fire in fantasy, even with some injury concerns. He is a TE1 in Week 11
The Broncos pass catchers have a decent matchup against the Vikings, who rank in the bottom ten against fantasy receivers. They have allowed a 60-yard receiver in three straight games. In that span, they have given up three receiving touchdowns. Receivers usually won’t have blowup games against the Vikings but can produce decent fantasy numbers. Courtland Sutton is having a nice season. He is averaging 48 yards and a touchdown almost per game. He seems to have found a connection with Wilson, and they seem to thrive, especially when he gets down to the red zone. Sutton could easily have a game of 50 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. Sutton is a nice high-end WR3 in Week 11.
Jerry Juedy has just two games all season, over 50 yards with one touchdown. Coming off the bye week, Juedy did not impress nor see a more significant target share to prove he can be trusted in lineups. Juedy is, at best, a WR4 in this game. Unfortunately, no other Broncos receiver can be mentioned in this situation. For the tight end position, Adam Trautman has been nonexistent as an option in fantasy.