New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Weather – Indoors
- What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -1.0) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
We get the first of many divisional games of the weekend. The Saints would beat the Falcons 21-18 at home the last time they played. Their average combined score in the previous five games was 46.2 total points. Following a bye week, the Saints are recovering from a loss to the Vikings in Week 10. The Falcons are also coming off a much-needed bye week after losing three straight games. The Saints are hopeful that Derek Carr’s return will be great, especially in a favorable matchup in the air. The Falcons are coming to get something in the passing game, especially in a matchup where their tight ends can thrive against the Saints. I don’t expect this game to have a lot of fantasy value for our lineups.
Derek Carr was coming off a good stretch of games, averaging around 19 fantasy points. Of course, Carr has dealt with multiple injuries over the season. He left week ten with a concussion and a chest injury. As of Wednesday, he was practicing in full, which is a good sign that he will play on Sunday. The Falcons are a favorable matchup as they allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Falcons have allowed a passer over two passing touchdowns in three of the last four games. The Falcons have been good at stopping the yardage, with just one passer over 250 passing yards. The big thing recently is the Falcons have allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in the last two games. Unfortunately, that is not part of Carr’s game. If Carr is ready to go, he should be fine if he doesn’t get hurt. He doesn’t need to throw for 300 yards to be effective in this game vs. the Falcons. Carr can be a mid-range QB2 in Week 12.
Desmond Ridder is back as the starting quarterback, as the team has decided to make a chance again. Ridder was benched three weeks ago and then had to fill in for Taylor Heinicke after he got injured. In the last few appearances, Ridder has not been great on the field, but he has two rushing touchdowns. The Saints are a middle-of-the-road team against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in the last five games. The Saints have been great at stopping passing yards, with no passer over 260 passing yards. If Ridder finds a rushing floor, the Saints are a solid matchup for that, as they have allowed six quarterbacks over 30 rushing yards. I don’t think Ridder has completely turned it around, but we all know he does play better at home. Ridder is a low-end QB2 in this matchup.
The Saints backfield will have it rough as the Falcons allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Falcons have been one of two teams not to allow a rushing touchdown. They allow some production in terms of yardage, as they have allowed a 60-yard rusher in three of the last four games. In the receiving game, the Falcons have allowed production to pass-catching backs like Alvin Kamara. Kamara has been a steady RB1 in fantasy despite running at a 3.7 YPC. Kamara seems on pace to return to his glory days as a pass catcher this season. Kamara should be an RB1 in Week 12. Even though Kamara has to worry about Taysom Hill stealing touchdowns, you should have complete faith in him. Jamaal Williams has been useless with Kamara on the field and should be outside the top 50.
For the Falcons backfield, we hope the bye week puts some sense into the coaching staff that Bijan Robinson needs all the carries. Over the first ten games, we saw that Robinson and Tyler Allgeier had 125 carries each. It’s time to unleash the rookie in the second half of the season now. The Saints are a good run defense, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. In recent weeks, they have softened to backfields in the last five weeks. They have allowed 3 of 5 running backs to rush over 60 yards. Also, they have given up four rushing touchdowns in that span, so the Falcons backfield may be okay. Bijan Robinson, hopefully, will be able to get 15-plus carries in this game. Ridder’s return may help Robinson return to some passing value that has faded recently. Robinson should remain a high-end RB2 in this matchup. Tyler Allgeier‘s value has been a wild card this season, but he has only three games over ten fantasy points. He is a mid-range RB4 in Week 12.
The Saints pass catchers will be without Michael Thomas as he lands on the IR. Thomas was a receiver who averaged almost seven targets per game. Hopefully, this will bump Chris Olave into a consistent double-digit target receiver. The Falcons are a decent matchup for this receiving group. In the last six weeks, they have allowed three receivers over 80 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. There is a chance for Olave to have a great game in Week 12. Olave usually starts slow in games but gets hot in the later portion. He does have double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games. Olave should be a solid high-end WR2 in Week 12.
It won’t be Rashid Shaheed to replace Michael Thomas, but his role will expand. He has been very inconsistent with the targets he receives this season. Hopefully, Shaheed can play more consistently as a WR4 rather than a boom/bust player without Thomas. AT Perry, the big 6’5″ receiver out of Wake Forest, played 80% of the snaps last game, so I wonder if his role will expand as a starter moving forward. Perry is a wait-and-see play rather than trusting him in Week 12. He would be outside my top 60 receivers. The Falcons rank in the bottom ten against tight ends this year. They have allowed 60-plus yards in back-to-back games. They have kept tight ends from scoring since week five. Taysom Hill is a cheat code, but his production is a major wild card. I’ll give him one more week as a high-end TE2, but I’m nervous about his overall usage. Juwan Johnson has had two bad games upon his return. He is outside the top 24 until he shows some consistency in the offense.
For the Falcons pass catchers, the Saints rank in the top ten against fantasy receivers. The Saints weakness has been the slot receiver. The last five slot receivers have produced 70 or more receiving yards against them. That brings us to Drake London, who plays more on the outside in the offense. London has been under ten fantasy in the last three weeks with the back-and-forth quarterback changes. London could struggle against Marshon Lattimore in this game. London hasn’t been that trustworthy for most of the season outside a few games. He should be a high-end WR4 in Week 12. The Falcons don’t usually use a slot receiver in the lineup as they go more than two tight end sets in their offense. Other receivers like Van Jefferson or KhaDarel Hodge are nowhere near the top 60 receivers in this game.’
The Falcons rock a two tight end set with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith for the tight end position. For years, the Saints were an elite team against tight ends, but they rank in the bottom ten this season. They have allowed four receiving touchdowns to a tight end in the last four weeks. They also have allowed five straight TE1 performances. Pitts runs the 8th most slot snaps, and Smith is ranked 16th, so the tight could be in for a big day. Pitt is a little more consistent this season but has a low ceiling; he could be in for a great game in Week 12. I like Pitts as a borderline TE1 in this matchup. Smith has been a little boom/bust the last few games, but he could easily outscore Pitts in this game. He is more of a high-end TE2 with some upside.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Paycor Stadium
- Weather – Light Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (PIT -1.5) & Over/Under 35.5
Identifying the Game Script
Our second division game of the week is between the Steelers and the Bengals. The last time they played, the Bengals would win in shoot-out fashion 37-30 on the road over the Steelers. Their average combined score in the previous five games was 47.8 total points. The Steelers are coming off a divisional loss over the Browns. The Bengals would lose the last TNF to the Ravens as they lost their franchise quarterback, Joe Borrow, in that game. Hopefully, this new-look offense will take advantage of the Bengals poor secondary and finally get the passing game going for the Steelers. For the Bengals, it will be the first time we get to see a full game from Jake Browning as the starting quarterback. He comes in with a decent overall matchup. I think this game will have a lower score.
For Kenny Pickett, we hope that the offensive scheme will help him improve his fantasy value. We’ll know real soon if Pickett is the guy or not. Pickett has been under ten fantasy points in three of the last four games. Some elite quarterbacks have beaten the Bengals down over the last month of the season. They have allowed five straight games over 250 passing yards. In the previous three weeks, they have given up three straight games with two-plus touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. For Pickett, it’s hard to trust in lineups since he had done nothing in fantasy this year. He has six touchdowns and less than 2000 passing yards in 10 games. He is a QB3 and shouldn’t be in lineups.
Jake Browning is getting his first career start as the Bengals begin life without Joe Burrow. Browning looked decent in relief to Burrow last week as he led a touchdown drive. Unfortunately for Browning, he has a tough matchup against the Steelers, who rank in the top ten against quarterbacks. In the last six games, they have allowed just four passing touchdowns. They have allowed over 260 passing yards to three of the previous four passers. Overall, the Steelers defense is tough, and they cause a ton of pressure to offenses and force turnovers. Browning is a young and inexperienced player. He does have great weapons to have him survive in fantasy. Browning’s unknown talent is concerning to play in his first game. He is a QB3 that could have some deep sleeper appeal.
The Steelers backfield has a tremendous two-headed monster. Najee Harris has been better since their bye week. He has three of five games over ten fantasy points. He has rushed over 50 yards and scored a touchdown in those games. Despite better fantasy play, he is still running under 4.0 YPC in the last five games. During the previous three weeks, Jaylen Warren has exploded in fantasy with three straight games of over 80 rushing yards. He is now the new starter despite not playing more snaps than Harris. In the last five games, the Bengals have allowed just one rusher over 65 yards. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns over the previous five games. The Bengals are a beatable team, but I don’t think both running backs can succeed. Warren is a high-end RB3, and his upside is so intriguing that he is worth starting in lineups. Najee Harris is more of a low-end RB3, as I could see him getting 12 carries for 48 yards in the game. He would need a touchdown to get to Warren’s value.
For the Bengals backfield, we could see Joe Mixon seeing an increased workload without Joe Burrow. Mixon has been on fire the last four weeks with ten-plus fantasy points. He has run decently, but his production has jumped thanks to four touchdowns in that span. The Steelers defense ranks as a bottom-ten defense against fantasy running backs. They have allowed a 70-yard rusher in three of the last four games. Joe Mixon has averaged 74 yards against the Steelers in ten career games. We’ve seen Mixon gain a receiving value the last few weeks with five receptions for 30 yards in two of three games. I’d expect Mixon to get a steady 15-plus carries and be able to put up mid-range RB2 numbers. Trayveon Williams has been the backup on running back. If the team elects a more run-heavy approach, I wonder if he will see more steady carries. He would still be outside the top 50.
The Steelers pass catchers have a favorable matchup as the Bengals rank in the bottom ten against receivers. In the last five games, the Bengals secondary has allowed five receivers over 80 receiving yards. They have allowed four receiving touchdowns in that span, with one in the previous three games. Diontae Johnson has struggled the last two weeks but still has managed 12 targets in those games. Unfortunately, Johnson’s confidence level has dropped to more of a low-end WR3. I hope the offense change will help Johnson return to a high-end WR3. George Pickens has had the better games in the last two weeks, but nothing to brag about. There were reports that the change in offensive coordinator will help Pickens out, so I’m interested in seeing that. If we look at who beat the Bengals this year, Pickens’ deep-threat ability fits the mold of who they can’t stop. If Pickens continues to see at least six targets, he is at least a high-end WR4.
The Bengals allow the third most fantasy points per game for the tight end position. After allowing four touchdowns to a tight end in the first five weeks, they have allowed one since. They allow a ton of yardage with three tight ends over the last five games with 70-plus yards. Pat Freiermuth had his first game off an injury last week, which was not great for fantasy. Freiermuth should get back to his usual snaps in this game. Freiermuth has averaged over 50 yards against the Bengals defense in four career games. Freiermuth is a high-end TE2 in this matchup, with a good chance of finding the endzone.
The Bengals pass catchers have a decent matchup against the Steelers. They rank in the bottom ten against wide receivers this year. They have allowed five receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They haven’t allowed many blow-up games, but overall, it is valuable. The touchdowns have been minimal, with just two over the last five games. JaMarr Chase had a terrible stat line with just two catches for 12 yards, and a touchdown. There is a downgrade from Burrow to Browning. The hope is that Chase can still show his elite talent to be productive. We can hope that Browning will focus on Chase with targets so his value won’t change. I’d still rank him as a low-end WR1 in fantasy.
Tee Higgins is questionable for Sunday after missing the last two games. If Higgins returns, I can’t see him being that valuable in fantasy. His season has been very up and down when he is on the field. He would be a low-end WR4 in this matchup if he plays. Tyler Boyd has had some decent games in Higgins’ absence but hasn’t done much with Higgins on the field. Boyd is likely a WR5 in this matchup. He has a slight chance of being productive, but Jake Browning is a concern. Trenton Irwin could be considered a WR5, but only if Higgins misses. The Steelers allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game for the tight end position. The Steelers have allowed some good production with six games over 40 yards to a tight end. They have done a great job shutting down tight ends from scoring, with just one touchdown on the season. Tanner Hudson has emerged from this tight-end group with 35-plus yards in the last three games. Browning could look toward Hudson as a safety blank in the middle of the field. He could be a decent mid-range TE2.
Carolina Panthers vs Tennessee Titans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Nissan Stadium
- Weather – Rain Showers at Times
- What Vegas is saying – Line (TEN -3.5) & Over/Under 36.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Panthers and the Titans haven’t faced off since the 2019 season. The Panthers would win 30-20 over the Titans at home. The Panthers got poorly beaten by the Cowboys last week. The Titans would also lose badly to a division foe, the Jaguars. The Panthers will look to establish Young with the passing offense, as the Titans have been bad against the pass. The Titans will look to get King Henry going against the team, one of the league’s worst run defenses. It will be an exciting game with two rookie quarterbacks trying to establish themselves in the NFL.
Bryce Young has continued to struggle following the Panthers week seven bye. He has scored fewer fantasy points in each of the last four games. Young has not been a reliable option as a rookie in fantasy. The Titans have been a decent matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this season. In the last two weeks, they have given up 250 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. It does seem that above-average quarterbacks can produce against the Titans. Mediocre quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew, and Taylor Heinicke have failed to produce against the Titans. I will leave Young in that QB3 range, as he can’t be trusted in most Superflex lineups due to his lack of production.
Will Levis is coming off his best game since his first career game against the Falcons. He hasn’t been super bad or anything, but the lack of talent around Levis is noticeable. Since his four touchdown games, he has gone 2:2 with his touchdown and interception ratio. The Panthers are a tough defense, ranking in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. The Panthers have only allowed three passing touchdowns in the last four weeks. They gave terrible games to CJ Stroud and Dak Prescott, two players on fire the last month. They have kept every quarterback under 200 passing yards in the previous four games. Levis hasn’t proven he can win in a tough matchup, especially with the lack of talent in the passing game. Levis would be in that QB3 range in Week 12.
For the Panthers backfield, it turned into a 50/50 split in Week 11. We saw more of a rotation between Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers paid Sanders to be there, so with Hubbard being very ineffective after the bye week, Sanders would get a chance again. The Titans run defense has not been that great over the last month of the season. They have allowed five running backs over 50 yards in the previous four games. The touchdowns have been few and far between, with just two in the last five games. I would assume that the Panthers will have these two running backs split drives and eventually give it to the hot hand in the offense. I think Sanders takes the backfield back and finishes as a low-end RB3. Hubbard will get his work but more of an RB4 in Week 12.
The Titans backfield has a juicy matchup against the Panthers. The Panthers allow the second most fantasy points per game to running backs. During the first few weeks off their bye, the Panthers looked like a better run defense, but in the last two weeks, they looked like the Panthers in September. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher and a touchdown in the previous two weeks. This enters Derrick Henry, who needs a blow-up game after two terrible weeks. Henry is coming off two bad games against two tough run defenses. Before that, Henry was playing solid football. I think Henry bounces back in a big way in Week 12. Henry should return to 15-plus carries and run close to 100 yards in this matchup. I have Henry back in that RB1 status. Tyjae Spears hasn’t done much all season, outside of one game where he scored a touchdown. Despite playing more snaps than Henry, Spears has been unproductive in fantasy. Spears is, at best, an RB4 in Week 12.
The Panthers pass catchers have a solid matchup against the Titans secondary. The Titans defense ranks in the bottom ten against fantasy receivers. They have given up a 90-yard receiver in three straight games. Also, they have given up four receiving touchdowns in that span. The Panthers receivers have not been reliable options outside of Adam Thielen. Thielen has regressed slightly over the last four weeks, with just two games over ten fantasy points. Thielen offers a solid floor since he averages over ten targets per game. In a more favorable matchup, I still like Thielen in Week 12. If he can continue to see eight-plus targets, he should be a safe mid-range WR2 in this matchup. I’d love to trust another receiver on this team, especially Jonathan Mingo, but no one has been productive. They were all outside the top 60 receivers in Week 12. The Panthers tight end position has been nonexistent this season and any tight end would be outside the top 24.
For the Titans pass catchers, they are similar to the Panthers. DeAndre Hopkins has been the only Titans receiver who has been a decent flex option most of the season. They all get a tough matchup against the Panthers in Week 12. The Panthers allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The Panthers have not allowed a receiver over 70 yards in the last four weeks despite playing some good receiver groups. They also have only allowed one receiving touchdown in the previous four weeks. Hopkins has been much better with Will Levis at quarterback, as he had two of four games over ten fantasy points. Hopkins is a borderline WR3 in Week 12. Treylon Burks will likely miss another game, and the rest of the receivers have not been top 60 receivers all season. The Titans tight ends also have been nonexistent this fantasy season. Chig Okonkwo is losing work to Josh Whyle in the passing game, where they seem to split the work now. They are both outside the top 24 tight ends.
Tampa Bay Bucaneers vs Indianapolis Colts
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Lucas Oil Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (IND -2.5) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Bucs and the Colts played each other was in the 2021 season. The Bucs would win a shootout 38-31 on the road against the Colts. The Colts are coming off a bye week after beating the Patriots in Germany. The Bucs would lose a tough game to the 49ers. The Bucs will take advantage of the Colts terrible run defense and have them be the key to their success in this game. The Colts will want to take advantage of the Bucs horrible secondary, so look for Gardner Minshew and their receivers to have a great game in Week 12. This could be one of the higher-scoring games of Sunday.
Baker Mayfield is coming off a poor outing against a tough 49ers defense. Mayfield has been a solid QB2 all season long. Mayfield has at least two passing touchdowns in three of the last four games. He throws for solid yardage with at least 230 passing yards in five straight games. The Colts have been solid against passers in the previous five games. They have allowed one quarterback to pass over 200 yards in those games. They have given up just five passing touchdowns in that span as well. Mayfield has been a solid fantasy quarterback, but we’ve seen Mayfield have games where he goes from a high-end QB2 to more of a low-end QB2. Mayfield is a safe mid-range QB2 who should be fine in a Superflex spot in Week 12.
Gardner Minshew has just one good game as the Colts starting quarterback. He has just two games over 15 fantasy points. When Josh Downs has been off the field the last two weeks, Minshew has poorly played the previous two weeks. The Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy points per quarterbacks. In three of the previous four games, the Bucs have given up 300 passing yards and at least two passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Minshew has the potential to see a shootout-type game against the Bucs. Minshew will hopefully have Josh Downs and the other skilled players for this matchup. Minshew is a high-end QB2 who is a sleeper in Week 12.
For the Bucs backfield, Rachaad White has looked like the fantasy running we wanted in the preseason. He has produced over ten fantasy points in five straight games. He has over 250 rushing yards and receiving yards during this run. White has scored four touchdowns in the last five games after scoring one in the first six weeks. However, White was added to the injury report Saturday. The Colts are a great matchup as they allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a rusher to go over 50 yards in five straight games. From week six to eight, they allowed seven total touchdowns. In the last two weeks, they haven’t allowed a touchdown. White is playing well over 70% of the offensive snaps in the offense. He continues to work as the lead back and finishes Week 12 as an RB1. If White misses the game, Chase Edmonds would be the next man up.
Jonathan Taylor has taken over the Colts’ backfield. Before the Week 11 bye, Taylor had seen over 70% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks. Taylor has locked up the workhorse role again after having 23 carries to Zach Moss’s one in week ten. Taylor also has double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. This matchup will be easy as the Bucs allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game. They have allowed four runners over 50 rushing yards in the last five weeks. The Bucs are one of two teams that have not permitted a rushing touchdown this season. They have done a great job at not allowing much-receiving production to running backs. Taylor will see the work in this offense, but I’m not sure he will be in prime situations to score. He should be a solid, high-end RB2. Zach Moss has fallen outside the top 50 running backs for this game.
For the Bucs pass catchers, the only fantasy options this year have been Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this season. They have a lot of young receivers who haven’t stepped up consistently in fantasy. The Colts have been very good against receivers in the last five weeks. They have allowed just four receivers over 60 yards in the previous six weeks. They have also given up three touchdowns in that span. The Bucs receivers are in for a tough matchup. Evans has been so good this season in fantasy. He has double-digit fantasy points in eight of ten games this season. Evans is still a borderline WR1, as I could see this game being high-scoring, giving Evans chances.
Chris Godwin has been under ten fantasy points in four of the last five games. He has seen decent targets in the offense, with six plus in most games. His production has been under 60 yards in four straight games. Godwin should be more of a WR4 in this matchup as a riskier flex option. For the tight end position, the Colts rank in the bottom ten. They have allowed a tight end over 50 yards in two of the last four games. While they have given up yardage, the Colts have given up just one touchdown to the position. Cade Otton has been okay but not reliable enough to have a big upside. With just one game over seven fantasy points in the last five weeks, Otton is a mid-range TE2 in Week 12.
The Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy points per game for the Colts pass catchers. In the last five games, the Bucs have given up eight receivers over 60 yards. They also gave up six receiving touchdowns in that span. Michael Pittman has been fantastic this season, with five straight games over ten fantasy points. He is averaging ten targets and 68 receiving yards per game. The touchdowns have been low with three, but fantasy finishes have been great. Pittman should continue to see a high target share in this game for a potential blow-up game. Pittman is a WR1 in Week 12. Josh Down should return in this game after not being on the injury report this week. Down was seeing four straight games over ten fantasy points before getting hurt. Hopefully, the bye week gave Downs the time he needed. He should be considered a WR3 in this matchup and someone you should feel good to flex. Alec Pierce is likely out of the top 60 receivers due to his lack of production. The Colts tight ends have been nonexistent in fantasy.
New England Patriots vs New York Giants
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Metlife Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (NE -3.5) & Over/Under 33.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams faced off was in 2019. The Patriots would win over the Giants in a blowout at home, 35-14. The Patriots are coming off their bye after losing to the Colts in Germany. The Giants again handled the Commanders to get another win in the season. The Patriots will look to take advantage of the Giants terrible offense with whoever they choose at quarterback. The Giants could look to take advantage of the Patriots poor secondary. We have the battle of two lower-tier quarterbacks, so expect both run games to be the highlight of this matchup.
The Patriots quarterback position will be either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe at quarterback in Week 12. We have no idea who is going to start against the Giants. Jones has been bad most of the season and has been benched multiple times in games. The Giants have been decent against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed a passer over 240 yards in four of the last five games. In that span, they have allowed six passing touchdowns with four to just one quarterback. Jones couldn’t do well against a terrible Commander’s defense, so I don’t expect him to be great here. Jones would be a QB3 in this game. If Zappe starts, I’m not expecting much more from him. He would also be a QB3. The Patriots have no talent in the pass-catching position to trust these quarterbacks.
Tommy DeVito is coming off a great fantasy game with 29 points. He did play the Commanders, who are a terrible defense. DeVito has been decent in fantasy with five touchdowns in the last two weeks, which is more than probably a third of the league. The Patriots have been an up-and-down defense against fantasy quarterbacks this season. In the last four weeks, they have allowed six passing touchdowns. They also have allowed 260 passing yards in three of the previous four games. The Patriots have been known as a team that can make rookie quarterbacks’ lives miserable in games. I’d still rank DeVito as a QB3, but he could have some sleeper appeal in Superflex leagues.
For the Patriots backfield, they have a favorable matchup as the Giants are a terrible run defense. They allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a 70-yard rusher in three straight games. The Giants have given plenty of rushing touchdowns and production in the receiving game to running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson has been playing better, with double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. Stevenson should be able to produce against the Giants while seeing 15-plus touches. I rank Stevenson as a mid-range RB2 in Week 12. Zeke Elliott could also be used more as the Patriots look to run the ball more and take advantage of a good matchup. Elliott could be a high-end RB4 that creeps into a good flex play in Week 12.
For the Giants backfield, Saquon Barkley is coming off a massive game in fantasy in week 11. Barkley has double-digit fantasy points in five of the last six games. He has 80 yards in four of the previous six games. He isn’t seeing massive value in the passing game but is coming off 50 yards and two receiving touchdowns. The Patriots have been a decent run defense over the last month of the season. They have allowed the previous four opposing running backs over 40 rushing yards. They also have allowed rushing touchdowns during the previous three games. The Giants will likely continue to run the offense through Saquon Barkley. Barkley likely sees 18 plus carries in this matchup and should finish as an RB1 in Week 12.
The Patriots pass catchers have a good matchup against the Giants, who allow the fifth most fantasy points per game. It’s hard to trust any of the Patriots receivers outside Demario Douglas right now. Douglas has 50 yards in three of the last four games. He has been the only consistent option on the team. Douglas should be fine as a low-end WR4 in Week 12. Devante Parker looks ready to return in this game, but it’s hard to trust him off an injury. Juju Smith-Schuster saw one catch last week, so he has been useless in fantasy. Both sit outside the top 60 receivers, even in a good matchup. For the tight end position, the Giants rank in the top ten. They have allowed five tight ends over 50 yards but only given up two touchdowns. Hunter Henry has not been that impressive among tight ends, and it’s not hard to do so. Henry is more of a low-end TE2 in Week 12.
The Giants pass catchers have a decent matchup as the Patriots rank in the bottom ten against fantasy receivers. They have allowed five receivers over 65 yards in the last three games. They have allowed four receiving touchdowns in that span as well. The WR1 on teams has produced at a high level against the Patriots. Unfortunately, it’s hard to trust any of the Giants pass catchers. No one has played well besides Darius Slayton, who had over 15 fantasy points last week. The Giants receivers have gone through 40 yards all season long just four times. Slayton looks doubtful for this matchup, as he has a shoulder injury. This could be a game in which either Isiah Hodgins or Jalin Hyatt can make some noise in fantasy. I’m ranking all Giant receivers outside the top 60 in Week 12. The Patriots rank in the top ten against tight ends this season. They have allowed only one receiving touchdown this season. They have given up three tight ends over 70 receiving yards this year. Daniel Bellinger has been decent, with over 30 yards in all three starts. He is probably outside the top 24 tight ends based on his limited production.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ NFG Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (JAX -1.5) & Over/Under 47.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Jaguars and the Texans are facing off for their second season game. Last time, the Texans would shock the Jaguars in a big win on the road, 37-17. The Jaguars rebounded in Week 11 after a solid win over another division win over the Titans. The Texans would pull a strong win over the poor Cardinals. Look for the Jaguars to throw everything possible at the Texans in a revenge game. The best would be to reestablish Evan Engram in the offense with a favorable matchup. The Texans can beat down the Jaguars secondary, which has not been that great this season. Tight end Dalton Schultz has a prime matchup to have a big game. This could be a fun, high-scoring game on Sunday.
Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game of the 2023 season. He had four total touchdowns and threw for over 250 passing yards. The Texans have been solid with not allowing high passing touchdowns this season. While they have allowed two of the last three games with two passing touchdowns, overall, they have given up just ten for this season. The Texans have given up 300 passing yards in three of the last five games. The previous time, Lawernce threw for 270 passing yards and one touchdown. I’m not ready to assume that Lawrence is back to the form we saw last year. Lawrence will have a tough matchup on the road against a good divisional foe. Lawrence is a high-end QB2 in Week 12.
CJ Stroud has been such a good rookie this season. We could be seeing a little rookie wall from Stroud in the last two weeks. He has more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) in the previous two weeks. Despite all that, Stroud has thrown for over 300 passing yards in the last three games. The Jaguars are a bottom-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. The Jaguars have allowed six quarterbacks to pass over 280 yards this season. In the last two weeks, they have given up five passing touchdowns. Last time, Stroud had 280 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Stroud should be a great start in this matchup. He has shown the ability to produce big games but needs to cut down on the turnovers. Stroud is a solid QB1 in Week 12.
For the Jaguars backfield, the bye week has cooled down Travis Etienne in fantasy. Etienne has been great, with seven rushing touchdowns this season. He has been running under a 4.0 YPC this season. The Texans have allowed a 60-yard rusher in three of the last five games. They have given up three rushing touchdowns in the previous three games. Last time, ETN had 15 fantasy points with over 100 all-purpose yards in week three. ETN continues to see the workload in the Jaguar’s offense, but I have concerns with his production if he doesn’t score. He was able to do that last time against the Texans, but this team has dramatically improved. I will still consider Etienne to be a low-end RB1 in Week 12.
Devin Singletary has been on fire for the Texans backfield the last two weeks. He has over 18 fantasy points in both games, with Dameon Pierce out of the lineup. Pierce looks like he is going to return to action in Week 12. The Jaguars are a tough matchup as they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. In the last few weeks, the Jaguars have been good against running backs. They have allowed zero rushing touchdowns in that time. Over the previous five weeks, they have allowed just two running backs over 50 yards. It’s not so easy to run on the Jaguars unless that running back gets a lot of carries. The weakness of the run defense has been the receiving game. They have allowed over 40 yards four times in the last five games. Pierce will play in this game after missing the previous two games. We would assume that the Texans will allow Singletary to see the majority of the workload based on his recent success. I’d still rank Singletary as a high-end RB3, as he should still have most of the workload. Pierce will see the parts of the early down work but will likely be considered more of an RB4 unless he scores a touchdown.
The Jaguars pass catchers have a tough matchup as the Texans rank in the top ten. In recent months, things have changed slightly. They have allowed five receivers over 70 yards, with two over 100 receiving yards. They have allowed three receiving touchdowns in the last two weeks. All season, they have only given up five touchdowns. Christian Kirk has been under ten fantasy points in two of the previous three games. We’ve seen slot receivers find success against the Texans. Kirk has moved back into the slot with Zay Jones returning. He is a borderline WR2 in this matchup. Calvin Ridley is coming off a big game with over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Ridley has been very up and down all season. Last time, Ridley only put up 40 yards. I’m not ready to trust Ridley again yet. He should be a high-end WR3 that could have some upside.
Zay Jones has returned after missing the last four games. He has four catches for 20 yards in Week 11. Jones has some appeal as he is a good receiver. I’d put him just inside the top 60 receivers. Evan Engram has been quiet the last two weeks with tough matchups for the tight end position. The Texans are a fantastic matchup, as they allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed seven tight ends over 40 yards. Engram should be a solid TE1 again in Week 12.
The Texans pass catchers won’t have their big four again, as Noah Brown will miss this game. The Jaguars have been so-so in the last four weeks. They have allowed jsut one receiver over 60 receiving yards. They have allowed a receiving touchdown in four straight games. Last time, Tank Dell had a dominant game with over 100 yards and a touchdown. Dell has been on fire the previous three weeks, with over 15 fantasy points in that span. He also had four touchdowns in the last three games. Dell seems to have turned into the WR1 on this team. He has seen double-digit points in the past three weeks. Based on his role in this offense, Dell would have to be a high-end WR2 in this game.
Nico Collins has been decent in his last two games with over 50 yards. Collins hasn’t put up a big game since his week four matchup. Collins seems to have taken a back seat to Dell. Collins has been more of a flex play than a strong WR2 value. Collins should be a WR3 in this game. Bob Woods is probably outside the top 60 receivers since his production has been minimal this season. The Jaguars allow the fourth most fantasy points per game for the tight end position. They have allowed a 50-yard tight end in three of the last four games. The Jaguars have only given up three touchdowns to a tight end this year. Dalton Schultz has been a very good tight end and someone you can put in lineups. I consider Schultz a TE1 despite his performance last time against them.
Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 p.m. @ Empower Field at Mile High
- Weather – Sunday
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DEN -1.5) & Over/Under 36.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time that the Browns and the Broncos played each other was in 2021. The Browns would win a close one, 17-14, home over the Broncos. The Browns are coming off a divisional win over the Steelers despite losing DeShaun Watson for the season. The Broncos are on a four-game winning streak after beating the Vikings last week. The Browns run game will look to take advantage of the Broncos horrible run defense. This could also be a game where David Njoku takes advantage of a good matchup. The Broncos will look to keep their hot streak going in this matchup despite the tough matchup against the Browns. This could be a lower-scoring game in Week 12.
Dorian Thompson Robinson played slightly better than his last start, as he only threw one pick instead of three. DTR looked like a rookie that isn’t ready for the NFL level. He continues to be under 200 passing yards and has yet to throw a passing touchdown. The Broncos are a bottom-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks this season. In the last month, the Broncos have been a much better defense. They have not allowed a passer over 250 yards in the previous four games. Since week five, they have only given up five passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. They played a lot of excellent fantasy quarterbacks. DTR doesn’t have a chance to do something in this game. I’d rank DTR as a QB3 in Week 12.
Russell Wilson has been up and down over his last four games. He has two games over 20 fantasy points but two under 16. He has had his first game with over 200 passing yards since week four. Wilson has thrown for lower passing yards but has six touchdowns over the last three games. The Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. Outside of two games in week seven and eight, the Browns have allowed just five passing touchdowns to eight other quarterbacks this season. Also, they haven’t allowed any passers over 240 passing yards. Wilson is a concern in Week 12. I don’t think he can overcome the tough matchup, but he will be decent in fantasy. Wilson is, at best, a low-end QB2, but his veteran experience can offer a floor play in Week 12.
For the Browns backfield, it seems to be a good split between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt. The two of them have split the early down and two-minute offense role. Ford has been the third down and played the goal line role in week 11. Hunt played the short-yardage role. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They have allowed four running backs over 60 yards in the last two weeks. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns since they allowed five rushing touchdowns in week three. Ford has been solid, with over ten fantasy points in three straight games. He should be a fine low-end RB2. He will get half the carries and see four-plus targets in this game. Kareem Hunt has a rushing touchdown in five of the last six games. He has not run well, but the touchdowns have made his day. Hunt is a solid low-end RB3 in Week 12.
For the Broncos backfield, Javonte Williams is coming off a bad game in Week 11. Williams has been solid in these last five games overall. Based on his usage, the Broncos want Williams to be the lead. The Browns run defense has fallen apart in the previous five weeks. They have allowed five rushers over 50 yards. They have allowed four rushing touchdowns in the last five games after allowing only one in the season’s first five games. Williams should see double-digit carries and three to four targets in this game. He would end up being a decent play as a low-end RB2 in this matchup. Samaje Perine only does well when he can see five or more targets in a game. This could be one that the Broncos fall behind, allowing Perine to see work. I’d still rank Perine as an RB4, as his production has been inconsistent. Jaleel McLaughlin is not seeing many touches, which forces him to be outside the top 50 running backs.
The Browns pass catchers have a tough matchup against the Broncos. The Broncos have allowed one receiver over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed only three touchdowns during that span as well. The Broncos have slowed down a few elite receivers in that time. Amari Cooper has struggled with DTR over his two starts. He has five receptions for 50 yards over two games. Cooper is still the WR1 on the team, but his upside will be limited in this game. Cooper is a WR4 that is not a strong flex play. Elijah Moore has been coming off back-to-back decent games the last two weeks. He has 11 receptions and 100 yards in the previous two games. Moore, working underneath, has given DTR a safety net in the offense. Moore has been a disappointment over the season. Moore has jumped back into that WR5 in Week 12.
David Njoku has 50 yards in back-to-back games for the tight end position. Njoku has been TE8 for the last four weeks. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed 40-plus receiving yards to a tight end. If Njoku sees a high target share, like in Week 11, then Njoku has a chance to succeed in fantasy. Njoku should be a low-end TE1 in Week 12.
The Broncos pass catchers have a tough matchup against the Browns. The Browns allow the third most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. They have allowed three receivers over 60 yards in the last four weeks. They have done a good job of not allowing blowup games to the receiver position. Courtland Sutton continues to have a solid season for fantasy. Sutton’s best games came when Sutton scored a touchdown. Thankfully, for fantasy, Sutton has eight receiving touchdowns this year. If Sutton can continue to have that red zone touchdown connection with Wilson, he can succeed in this game. Sutton is a low-end WR3 in Week 12.
Jerry Juedy has been a bust at the receiver position this year. He has one game over ten fantasy points. He has 50 yards in six of nine games, but the fantasy points don’t match. Jeudy has fallen to a high-end WR5 in fantasy. He is a desperate flex option that has not given us any upside in 2023. No other receiver has made a fantasy impact, and the tight end position has been nonexistent this year.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 p.m. @ State Farm Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAR -2.0) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is the second of two games between the Rams and the Cardinals this year. The Rams would win easily 26-9 over the Cardinals at home. The Rams are coming off a tough divisional win last Sunday over the Seahawks. The Cardinals would try their best but would lose to the Texans. The Rams will look to take advantage of the Cardinals terrible run defense this season. The Cardinals have a tough matchup, but Trey McBride should be able to do well against one of the worst teams against the tight end position. I don’t expect this game to be high-scoring, but the stars should be able to shine in this game.
Matthew Stafford has not been good for fantasy this season. Stafford has been under 20 fantasy points in eight of nine games this season. He has nine touchdowns and eight interceptions in nine games. The Cardinals are ranked in the bottom ten against fantasy quarterbacks this year. The Cardinals have been up and down as a defense overall, with many quarterbacks being able to do well and a few quarterbacks having poor games. Last time, Stafford put up 226 passing yards and only one touchdown. Stafford is not 100% playing at a trustworthy level this year. Cooper Kupp will play, but Stafford’s value is low despite having two fantastic receivers. I’d have to rank Stafford as a low-end QB2 with little upside in this game
Kyler Murray has been solid in his first two games back in 2023. He is showing off a strong rushing floor with over 30 yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games. The Rams have allowed high passing yardage this season but low touchdowns. They have allowed over 220 passing yards in six straight games. They have allowed only ten passing touchdowns all season at this point. The good thing for Murray is that they have allowed three mobile quarterbacks to rush for over 40 yards. Last time, Joshua Dobbs had 230 passing yards and 45 rushing yards. Murray looked back in form despite average passing stats this year. If Murray can keep his rushing high, he should have no issue finishing as a QB1 in Week 12.
The Rams backfield is getting their top running back for this game in Kyren Williams. Williams has been out the last four games due to an injury. Williams had 17 plus fantasy points in four of those games in the first six weeks. He was a big touchdown machine, but he did have two of the last three games over 100 rushing yards. The Cardinals allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. In the previous five weeks, they have allowed six rushing touchdowns. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in four of the previous five games. Williams likely won’t be given the same workload he had before his injury. He was getting over 90% of the snap but will probably drop to 70%. I like Williams has a high-end RB2 in Week 12. Royce Freeman will be the backup to Williams, and he could see some early down work. Freeman had 60 yards in two of four games in Williams’ absence. He can be an RB4 in Week 12.
For the Cardinals backfield, James Connor has handled the majority of the work on the offense. Connor has been mostly a two-down back with just targets over two games. He does have 60 rushing yards in each of the last two weeks. Tony Jones was the third down back, but Emari Demercado or Michael Carter could take over that role. The Rams are a top-ten run defense in 2023. They have allowed just one running back over 60 yards but six running backs over 40 rushing yards. They are a bend but don’t break type of run defense. They have allowed only rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks. If Connor is only seeing the groundwork in the offense, then his role could be limited. He is a high-end RB3, as his upside is capped. None of the backups are ranked in the top 50 in this game.
Cooper Kupp will be back for this game for the Rams pass catchers. The Cardinals have done a decent job against fantasy receivers this season. In the last four games, they have allowed just two receivers to have big games against them. Amari Cooper and Tank Dell succeeded in those four weeks to be WR2s or better. Cooper Kupp is back in action and has had a successful fantasy career against the Cardinals. Kupp is coming off an injury, but let’s not forget that Kupp was under six fantasy points in four straight games. Kupp is a star name, and hopefully, he can rebound in this game. Kupp is a high-end WR2 in Week 12.
Puka Nacua has cooled down with Kupp returning, plus the issues the offense has been having this year. Nacua has had two very good games in the last four weeks. Nacua has had better games in the previous four weeks compared to Kupp. Nacua finds space in the offense to exploit the defense he plays. I rank Nacua as a WR1, as he could be the new number one in the offense. Tutu Atwell is still a WR5 boom-or-bust receiver with Kupp in the lineup. For the tight end position, the Cardinals are a top-10 unit against the position. Over the last four weeks, some of the better tight ends have had better finishes against the Cardinals. It’s hard to trust Tyler Higbee since his value in the previous two months has been almost nonexistent in fantasy. He has just one game over five fantasy points during the last six games. Tyler Higbee is outside my top 24 tight ends.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ Allegiant Stadium
- Weather – Indoors
- What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -8.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is the first matchup between the Chiefs and the Raiders this season. Last time, the Chiefs would get a late-game win over the Raiders 31-13 on the road. The Chiefs would not show up against the Eagles and take their second-season loss. The Raiders played tough against the Dolphins high-power offense but lost. The average scoring of their last five games has been 56.2. These games between the Chiefs and the Raiders ended up being high-scoring. The Chiefs will likely get their passing game going, but the run game has a great matchup. The Raiders need to get the ball to their star players to have a chance in this game.
Patrick Mahomes has not been the Mahomes we’ve loved over the years. He has been under 25 fantasy points in six of the last seven games. Mahomes has been under 200 passing yards in back-to-back games. He has nine passing touchdowns in the last five games. The Raiders have been pretty good against quarterbacks in the previous eight games, minus Week 11. They have allowed six touchdowns in those eight games. They have allowed over 250 passing yards in three of the last four games. Mahomes has averaged 300 passing yards and over two touchdowns over ten career games. Despite the issues on the Chief’s offense and the Raiders tougher play on defense, I’d still have to rank Mahomes as a QB1 in Week 12. Mahomes will find a way on the road to be good for fantasy.
Aidan O’Connell has not been that great for fantasy since getting the start in week nine. He has not been able to escape over 12 fantasy points this year. He had his best game in week nine, but the Chiefs are a tough defense. The Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Chiefs have allowed only five passing touchdowns in the last five weeks. They have allowed just one quarterback to pass 200 yards in that span. Overall, they have been good all season against fantasy quarterbacks. I don’t see O’Connell being able to beat this tough defense. O’Connell would be a QB3 in Week 12.
For the Chiefs backfield, we may see an expanded role for Isiah Pacheco with Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco has cooled over the last three weeks after five straight games over ten fantasy points. The Raiders are a bottom-ten defense against fantasy running backs. The Raiders have only allowed one rushing touchdown in the last four weeks. They have given up four running backs over 70 rushing yards in that span. Pacheco should see this groundwork and be more productive in a positive game script for fantasy. Don’t be surprised if he sees a few more targets than he usually does in this game. Pacheco has a big shot at having a fantastic game. He is a borderline RB1 in Week 12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could see more work as the backup with McKinnon out. CEH would still be just outside my top 50 running backs.
For the Raiders backfield, Josh Jacobs dominates the offense’s touches. He is seeing over 70% of the rushing attempts shares this season. The Chiefs have allowed a 70-yard rusher in four straight games. Jacobs has averaged 70 rushing yards in eight career games against the Chiefs. At the same time, we saw that when the Raiders fall behind, Jacobs’s value does drop. He still managed 14 carries in a loss last week. Jacobs’ upside seems capped, as he has had only seven targets in the previous four weeks. Jacobs should see most of the touches in this game; if he can score, he should be great. If not, the better matchup this week should give Jacobs a more efficient game in Week 12. He is a RB1 in this matchup.
For the Chiefs pass catchers, it’s hard to trust most of them since the production is so inconsistent. We saw Justin Watson step up last week with five receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown. Watson is second among all receivers in fantasy points outside of Rashee Rice. Rice has looked good, but his limited targets limit his fantasy value. The Raiders were a solid secondary this season. In the last four weeks, they have been beaten in the air. They have allowed a 90-yard receiver in three of the previous four games. The touchdowns given up have been minimal, with just two since week five. Rice is a solid WR4, as he can give you a floor play of eight fantasy points, but his upside is limited until he sees more targets.
I don’t want to trust any other Chiefs receiver. I need Justin Watson to show me again before he is a top 60 receiver. Marquez Valdez Scantling will have another big game, but it won’t be this week. Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman have been ruled out, so that could give some of the other receivers more work. They are all outside my top 60 receivers. For the tight end position, it’s hard to argue that Travis Kelce isn’t a TE1. In the last five weeks, the Raiders have allowed 40 yards to a tight end three times. Kelce averages 70 receiving yards per game over 18 career games against the Raiders. He is a TE1 in Week 12.
The Raiders pass catchers have a tough matchup against the Chiefs. The Chiefs rank inside the top 10 against fantasy receivers this year. Since week three, the Chiefs have allowed only two receivers over 65 yards. After almost a month and a half of terrible fantasy finishes, Davante Adams seems to be returning. He has back-to-back games with 80 yards and double-digit fantasy points. O’Connell is feeding him the ball as much as possible. That is all that we wanted for Adams all season long. If Adam continues to see a massive target share, he should be back as a borderline WR1, even in this tougher matchup.
For Jakobi Meyers, his value has fallen apart since the switch to the rookie quarterback. He is under ten fantasy points in three of the last four games. It would have been four straight had he not run in a touchdown. It’s clear that O’Connell can’t sustain two receivers at once for fantasy. Meyers has fallen to a high-end WR5 in Week 12. The Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game for the tight end position. They have allowed just two tight ends over 40 yards and only two touchdowns on the season. Michael Mayer is coming off his best game since his blow-up game in week six. Mayer has been solid when he can see five targets in games. Trusting anyone outside of Adams is hard, so Mayer is a low-end TE2 in Week 12.
Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ Lincoln Financial Field
- Weather – Potential Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (PHI -3.0) & Over/Under 48.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Eagles and the Bills faced off was during the 2019 season. The Eagles would win on the road 31-13 over the Bills. The Eagles are coming off a big win over the defending champion, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills would get a surprise blowout win over the Jets. The Bills will look to take advantage of the Eagle’s terrible secondary and get the passing game going once again. The Eagles will take advantage of an injured Bills defense that the high-power Eagles offense should be able to roll on. This should be one of the week’s biggest games and end up being the game of the week in fantasy.
Josh Allen broke his bad stretch against the Jets after having 28 points in Week 11. Allen still has over 24 fantasy points in four of the last five games. The turnovers have killed his upside, but he leads the league in touchdown passes. The Eagles allow the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed a 300-yard passer in two of the last three games. They have given up nine passing touchdowns in that span. This will be a high-scoring game, so expect the Bills to be forced to keep up with the Eagles. Allen may need to run more, as the Eagles front seven does create pressure on opposing quarterbacks. He is a QB1 in Week 12.
Jalen Hurts has been amazing in fantasy, with over 20 points in every game since Week 2. Hurts’ production has come in many different ways this season. Hurts has, at times, had great passing games, but most of his production comes from his run game. Hurts has 25 total touchdowns on the season. The Bills allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Before Week 11, the Bills allowed four straight games to quarterbacks with two passing touchdowns. They had allowed 230 passing yards in three of the last five games. I expect this game to be high scoring, so I have no issues with Hurts in Week 12. He is a QB1 in Week 12.
For the Bills backfield, they have the toughest fantasy matchup in football this week. The Eagles allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position. They have allowed just one running back over 60 yards this year. That happened actually in Week 11. They have not let up a touchdown since week seven of the season. James Cook is coming into this game on a hot streak with back-to-back games over ten fantasy points. He has 184 rushing yards in the last two weeks. His snaps are concerning since he has played under 50% the previous two weeks. I guess fewer snaps equals a more efficient Cook. I think he could be decent in this matchup, as he still handles most of the early down work in the offense. He would be a high-end RB3, but he is limited by how the Bills use their running backs. Latavius Murray falls back into that RB4 range after not scoring a touchdown in Week 11. He is a touchdown-or-bust type of back. Ty Johnson was interesting to see three receptions for 47 yards. If he continues to have a role, this backfield could become a mess.
For the Eagles backfield, the matchup is favorable against the Bills. The rushing has been better, with just one running back over 40 yards in the last five games. They have given up 50-plus receiving yards to opposing running backs three times in that span. D’Andre Swift continues to have a stellar season with another strong game in Week 12. It helps that Swift is behind one of the best offensives in the NFL. Swift should have no issues in this game and will see around his 15 carries. If they can get him going in the passing game, he may have a big game ahead of him. He is a RB1 in Week 12. I don’t have Kenny Gainwell or Boston Scott in my top 50 backs in Week 12.
The Bills pass catchers have a fantastic matchup against the Eagles in Week 12. The Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed seven receiving touchdowns in the last four weeks. In that span, they have allowed six receivers over 60 yards. Stefon Diggs has two straight bad games under five fantasy points. I expect him to be able to bounce back in a big way in Week 12. Diggs should have no issue being a WR1 again in fantasy in Week 12. Gabe Davis has been bad in the last three weeks, with two zero-point games. He has just one game in the previous five over ten fantasy points. I think we could see Davis’s slump end in Week 12. Davis has a big play ability, and he ranks him as a boom/bust WR4 in this game.
Khalil Shakir has double-digit fantasy points in two of the last four games. His usage is encouraging in a favorable matchup that should be a shoot-out. I like Shakir as a borderline WR4 in Week 12. For the tight end position, the Eagles are a bottom-ten team against the position. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns this year to a tight end. Dalton Kincaid has been elite since taking over the starting job and should continue to do that in Week 12. He is seeing seven-plus targets as the starter in each game. He should be a TE1 in Week 12.
The Eagles pass catchers have a tougher matchup as the Bills rank in the top ten against the position. They have allowed just one receiver to produce over 65 receiving yards in the last five weeks. They have given up four receiving touchdowns to a receiver in that span. AJ Brown had a game in Week 11 to forget. He should be able to bounce back to more elite production. Brown should be a low-end WR1 in Week 12. DeVonta Smith has been great the last three weeks with double-digit fantasy points. Smith should be a solid WR 2 in Week 12. The tight end position has disappeared since Dallas Goedert went down with an injury.
Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BAL -3.5) & Over/Under 48.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Ravens and Chargers played was during the 2021 season. The Ravens would win in a blowout fashion, 34-6, at home over the Chargers. The Ravens are coming off a big week over the Bengals last TNF despite losing one of their stars on offense. The Chargers would find a way to lose a close one again over the Packers. Look for the Ravens to take advantage of the Chargers poor secondary and show off the offense in a way they never have. The Chargers will have a tough matchup for fantasy, but it was tough last week, and they found a way. This should be a close game to the end.
Lamar Jackson had a nice bounce-back fantasy day after three straight games under 16 fantasy points. Jackson was able to score a few touchdowns but also not turn the ball over this time. The Chargers are a fantastic matchup for Lamar Jackson as they allow the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It has more to do with Jackson’s passing than his running, which is an easy matchup for him. The Chargers have allowed over 230 passing yards in every game this season. They have allowed five opposing quarterbacks to throw for well over 300 yards. Most of the elite quarterbacks have been able to throw for two-plus passing touchdowns. Despite losing his best weapon, Jackson should be in for a big game in Week 12. Jackson is a QB1 in this matchup.
Justin Herbert continues to be able to find ways to be great in fantasy. He showed us that mystery rushing floor that he randomly goes off for with 70 yards in week 11. Herbert will have another tough matchup against the Ravens. They allow the third fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. The Ravens have done well against fantasy quarterbacks that allow only two quarterbacks to have two passing touchdowns. They have allowed only nine passing touchdowns on the season. They also have been good at stopping passing yards, with just one quarterback over 280 yards. Justin Herbert was stopped once against a very good defense so it could happen again. Herbert is playing at such an elite level that I can’t imagine seeing him struggle again. He is a borderline QB1 in Week 12.
For the Ravens backfield, it’s turning into a two-man committee compared to three. Justice Hill is fading out of the rotation, which is good for fantasy. Gus Edwards continues to be a touchdown machine, with a touchdown in five straight games. Keaton Mitchell, who is the lighting to Edwards’s thunder, has emerged as a weapon this season. The Chargers have been a decent matchup for fantasy running backs this season. They have allowed 50 rushing yards to three running backs in the last three weeks. They allowed a good running team like the Lions to have well over 200 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. This could be a good game for Edwards and Mitchell. Edwards should be a solid RB2 in this matchup. He may come off a little touchdown-dependent, but once they get to the red zone, it’s all aboard the Gus Bus. Mitchell is seeing decent work, and his speed can take a long one to the house anytime. He showed that his numbers are not great when he doesn’t score. With the potential lack of pass catchers, I think the Ravens will use Mitchell out wide more. He is a borderline RB3 in Week 12.
For the Chargers backfield, Austin Ekeler is coming off a bad game. Ekeler is not being very efficient with his work this season. Week 11 was a close game, but Ekeler touched the ball 12 times, which doesn’t make much sense. The Ravens are a team that Ekeler could run on. They have allowed a 65-yard rusher in five of the last six games. They have given up a few touchdowns, with three on the season. We saw last week that if a team can get the ball to their back in the air, the Ravens have trouble stopping that. It’s all about opportunities for Ekeler, and he needs more work in this game. Ekeler should still be an RB1 in this matchup. Joshua Kelley is outside the top 50 running backs as his production has disappeared.
The Raven’s pass catchers lost their star player, Mark Andrews, to a season-ending injury. The receivers like Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr must step up. The good news is that they play the Chargers in Week 12. The Chargers allow the third most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. They have given up an 80-yard receiver in the last three weeks in each game. They also have given up three receiving touchdowns in the previous two weeks. Overall, it’s a fantastic matchup for these receivers. Despite having a solid season, Zay Flowers hasn’t been all that great in fantasy. He has just two games over ten fantasy points in half-point PPR leagues. Hopefully, more targets can go his way, as his target share has dropped over the last month. I’d rank Flowers as a low-end WR3 in this game.
Odell Beckham Jr has started playing well in the last three weeks. He has double-digit fantasy points despite not playing over 50% of the snaps in the offense. He is dealing with an injury but still managing to produce for us. Beckham can offer us a mid-range WR4 value. I’d look out for guys like Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman in deeper leagues, as they could see increased value, but they are still outside my top 60 in Week 12. For the tight end position, the Chargers rank in the bottom ten against the position. We must assume Isaiah Likely would take over as the new TE1 for the Ravens. Likely is an athletic beast, but my trust level is low. He has had chances to do well but doesn’t seem to do so outside of about one game over his career. The matchup against the Chargers is so great that it would be hard not to give him a shot. Likely is a mid-range TE2 that has some sleeper appeal. Another name to watch is Charlie Kolar, who is similar to Andrews’s play style.
The Chargers pass catchers have a tough matchup against the Ravens. They allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed just two receivers over 50 yards in the last four weeks. One receiver could produce against this secondary, bringing us to Keenan Allen in this game. Allen has returned to elite-level status in the last two weeks with over 100 yards in back-to-back games. Allen is seeing over 30% target share in this offense. He should be a WR1 in this matchup. Quentin Johnston is now dealing with drops, as he could have had a good game last week. If he continues to play poorly, his fantasy value could drop. I still give him a chance as a WR5, but he is risky.
Jalen Guyton may return, which could lower Johnston’s value. Guyton is dealing with an injury, so his snaps could be limited. He is probably outside my top 60 receivers. Gerald Everett looks like he is returning to this game after missing last week. Everett has not been all that great in his previous two games or this season. The Chargers do a three-person rotation with Everett, Donald Parham, and Stone Smartt. The Ravens are in the top 10 against fantasy tight ends this season. Everett and Parham are both borderline TE2s.