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The Script for Fantasy Success: Week 12 – Thanksgiving/Black Friday Games

It's a football holiday where we can watch football on Thanksgiving and Black Friday! Let's dive into the script of these four games.
QB 1Elite Starting OptionWR 1Elite Starting OptionRB 1Elite Starting OptionTE1Strong Starting Option
High End QB 2Great for SF/Sleeper QB1WR 2Strong Starting OptionRB 2Great Starting OptionLow End TE 1Good Starting Option
Mid/Low QB 2Decent/Sleeper for SuperFlexWR 3Good WR3/Strong Flex OptionHigh End RB 3Good Starting Option/ Flex PlayHigh End TE 2Decent Starting Option
QB 3Risky Superflex Play/SitWR 4Shakey Flex Option/Decent in WR3 FlexMid/Low RB 3Flex Play/ 1B OptionLow end TE 2Desperate Option
BorderlinePlayers inbetween optionsWR 5Desperate Flex Play/Deep SleeperRB 4Back ups with upside/favorable matchup

Green Bay Packers vs Detriot Lions

Details of the Script

  • Thanksgiving – 12:30 p.m. @ Ford Field
  • Weather – Indoors 🙂
  • What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -7.5) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script

This will be the second of two matchups between the Packers and the Lions. Last time, the Lions would win on the road 34-20 over the Packers. The Packers have lost four straight games to the Lions. The Packers are coming off a solid win over the Chargers. The Lions are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Bears. For the Packers, they need to continue to use their pass attack to their full advantage. The Lions secondary has struggled, which could allow the pass to succeed. The Lions must use their elite running back duo to pave the way to a victory and fantasy goodness. This should be a fun, high-scoring division game to start Thanksgiving football.


Jordan Love has come on strong in fantasy in the last two weeks. He has back-to-back 20-point games. He has thrown for over 280 passing yards and tossed two touchdowns. The Lions are a bottom-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. In four of the last six games, they have allowed a QB1 performance to opposing quarterbacks. They have given up 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in two of the previous four games. They have allowed Love to start throwing the ball more and allowed him to make plays with his arm. This young receiving group has progressed over the season, which could be why Love’s recent success. Love scored around 19 fantasy points the last time these teams faced off, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can improve. Love is probably a safe, high-end QB2. He is decent in 1QB leagues but great for Superflex in Week 12. 

DETROIT, MI – OCTOBER 30: Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) looks at the video board during an NFL football game between the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions on October 30, 2022 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

Jared Goff has not been playing so great in the last four games of the season. He has been under 16 fantasy points in three of the previous four games. It’s not all his fault since the Lions have been on a three-game win streak. The run game has been fantastic this season, and when they get down to the red zone, they lean on them to push the ball in. The Lions top backs rank in the top 36 among running backs in red zone touches. Goff moves the ball inside the 20s and then allowed the running games to finish the job. Goff will be home, which is great since he plays much better inside a dome than outdoors. He averages two passing touchdowns in games when he plays indoors, compared to averaging one touchdown per game when playing in outside stadiums. The Packers do rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed two quarterbacks in the last four weeks to throw for over 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. They have shut down most opposing quarterbacks this season and did that with Goff earlier this year. Goff is a better mid-range QB2 that is safe for Superflex leagues. 

Running Backs

For the Packers backfield, it seems clear that Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson will not play on Thanksgiving. AJ Dillion will resume the starting role, and the team will add Patrick Taylor and James Robinson. The Lions are a top-ten unit against running backs this season. They have done great at allowing minimal yardage to running backs, with everyone under 70 yards. They have allowed a touchdown in the previous three games. AJ Dillion has had at least eight fantasy points in four of the previous six games. Overall, he has not put up a game over 15 fantasy points this season. He averages just 6.9 fantasy points per game this season. In a tough matchup, it is hard to consider Dillion. He is, at best, a low-end RB3. He will likely need a touchdown to have real value.

For the Lions backfield, this duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is fantastic in fantasy. In the last two weeks, they both have had over 15 fantasy points. The Packers have given up a ton of rushing yards with three running backs over 60 yards in the last two weeks. They have allowed four 100-yard rushers on the season. One was David Montgomery in week four, where he had 120 yards and three touchdowns. Gibbs did decent in that game on minimum touches. In a short week, I think both running backs can produce in this game. Gibbs will get his groundwork but be able to be productive in the receiving game. Montgomery has slightly benefited from two big runs for touchdowns, but he continues to score, which is great. I have both of these running backs as low-end RB1s in Week 12.

Pass Catchers

The Packers pass catchers have a solid matchup against the Lions secondary. In the last two weeks, the Lions secondary has given up five touchdowns to a receiver. They also have given up at least one 70-yard receiver in five of the last six games. The last time Romeo Doubs had a monster game, going nine receptions for 95 yards. Doubs, unfortunately, hasn’t come close to that yardage since but has had four touchdowns in the following six games. He seems a little touchdown-dependent in fantasy, but he has a good matchup. Doubs is a WR4 that you can flex, but he’ll likely need that touchdown to help his day. Jayden Reed has been solid since the Packers bye week. He has four of five games over nine fantasy points. In Week 11, he showed how to be a weapon in the running game. I like Reed as the best receiver in the Packers group. He has shown the most consistent production and hasn’t needed a touchdown to make or break his day. He is a high-end WR4 in Week 12.

Christian Watson may lead the team in snaps in Week 11 but was sixth in targets. Watson and Love don’t seem to have a strong connection on the field with the lack of yardage he showed us. He has been under 40 yards in six straight games. He is more of a WR5 in this matchup. For the tight end position, the Lions have been pretty good against tight ends in the last six weeks outside of what Mark Andrews did to them. They have kept the other five opposing tight ends under 30 yards in games. Luke Musgrave is heading to the IR due to an injury. That would put Tucker Kraft in the starting role for Week 12. Last week, Kraft did catch two balls for 32 yards, which could be encouraging for him this week. I’m not expecting him, but he would be considered a low-end TE2 with some sleeper appeal based on how the Packers use their tight ends despite a challenging game.

For the Lions pass catchers, it has been all Amon-Ra St. Brown this season. He has a tough matchup against the Packers, who rank in the top ten against fantasy receivers. They have allowed one receiver over 50 yards in the last three weeks. In the seven games prior, they allowed nine receivers over 50 yards. Last time, St. Brown had a decent game with 60 yards and a touchdown. St. Brown has been so good this season with just one game under 14 fantasy points, although one of his other down games was to the Packers. St. Brown is an elite receiver, and I trust he’ll produce on Thanksgiving in this matchup. He is a WR1 in Week 12.

Jameson Williams is starting to do more, playing over 50% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks. His target share, unfortunately, continues to be low, as he is averaging just three per game. I think I would consider him a low-end WR5 due to some upside that he offers. Josh Reynolds has fallen hard after a solid start to the season but is likely outside the top 60 receivers, with under ten fantasy points in five straight games. For the tight end position, the Packers have allowed some decent yards. They have allowed three tight ends over the last four games over 50 receiving yards. Sam LaPorta had a solid four receptions for 56 yards last time. LaPorta is coming off his worst game of the season, and we see that with the run game thriving, targets to LaPorta are capped. He has seen five targets per game over the last two weeks as the run game dominates. We could see another outing like that, which could limit LaPorta. He is still a TE1 but more of a low-end TE1 compared to the upside he was showing in the first half of the season.

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Details of the Script

  • Thanksgiving – 4:30 p.m. @ AT&T Stadium
  • Weather – Indoors : )
  • What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -11.0) & Over/Under 48.5

Identifying the Game Script

We get the first of two matchups between the Cowboys and the Commanders. The last time they played, the Commanders would win 26-6 at home over the Cowboys. These teams combined 48.2 points per game in the previous five games. The Cowboys are coming off another dominant win over the Panthers. The Commanders can’t seem to figure out the Giants and would lose at the end with a pick-six. The Cowboys passing offense will have a field day against the worst secondary in football this season. The Cowboys will be challenging, but if the Commanders can continue using the Sam Howell to Brian Robinson connection, they may have a chance to succeed. This should be another higher-scoring fantasy day.


Sam Howell is QB4 on the season, but no one seems to care since the Commanders can’t win games. Howell could be the Blake Bortles of the 2020s but is more talented, in my opinion. Although Howell has been great, he has been under 20 fantasy points in three of the last five games. In the two other games, he was over 30 points. Dallas is a top-ten fantasy defense against quarterbacks this season. Since week five, though, the Cowboys have given up two passing touchdowns to four of six quarterbacks. They have barely allowed one passer over 250 passing yards this year. Howell could struggle in this matchup, as the Cowboys know how to get to the quarterback and force turnovers. I think Howell is not a confident start, but the potential garbage time play with him makes him a high-end QB2 in this matchup.

Dak Prescott has been on fire since coming off the week seven bye. He is averaging 317 passing yards and three touchdowns per game. He gets one of the best matchups in the Commanders, who allow the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. They have allowed two-plus passing touchdowns in seven of the last eight games. They allowed six quarterbacks to put up over 270 passing yards in that span. I mean, Tommy DeVito put up 246 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. They allowed six quarterbacks to put up over 270 passing yards in that span. Anyone outside of Mac Jones can have a fantastic game against the Commanders. Prescott should be in the starting lineups right now. He is on a hot streak and should be a QB1 in Week 12.

Running Backs

For the Cowboys backfield, Tony Pollard had a game worth mentioning. It’s been not good for Pollard since he scored his first touchdown in week one. He ran over 60 yards since week three and produced over ten fantasy points since week six. Pollard has just not been efficient. Again, some of this could be because the Cowboys have been blowing out their opponents and keeping Pollard off the field in the fourth quarter, but not enough to make or break his fantasy day. Pollard isn’t far from passing his career highs in the passing game but may not reach 1000 rushing yards. A big difference has been touchdowns from 12 last year to only three this season. The Commanders have allowed a 50-yard rusher in five straight games.

The real value has come in the passing game, as the Commanders allow a running back with four-plus receptions in the last four games. They have given up three receiving touchdowns in the previous two games. Pollard was bad last year against the Commanders, with 27 total yards. That defense is not as good, and the Cowboys have been on fire. Pollard is a high-end RB2 in Week 12. Rico Dowdle has not practiced this week. There is a chance he could miss this game. Dowdle has had 20 carries in the last two weeks. If he were to play, he could reach RB4 status. Good chance we see Deuce Vaughn step in as a borderline RB4.

LANDOVER, MD – DECEMBER 18: Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson (8) rushes up field during the New York Giants game versus the Washington Commanders on December 18, 2022, at FedEx Field in Landover, MD. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire)

For the Commander’s backfield, Brian Robinson is thriving in fantasy as the RB4 on the season. Touchdowns in the early portion of the season were making his fantasy day, but lately, that has changed. Robinson has had 13 receptions for 177 yards in the last two weeks. He has turned into a pass-catching running back that can do it all. His best game was when Antonio Gibson did play. The Cowboys are a top-ten unit against fantasy running backs. They have only allowed one rusher over 70 yards this season, but three running backs have gone over 50 in the last two weeks. The Cowboys have allowed minimal touchdowns, with only five on the season. They don’t allow much value in the passing game, with just one running back over 40 yards. I will continue to start Robinson and say that the offense will find ways to get him the ball in this game. He is a high-end RB2 in Week 12. Gibson should be back in this game after missing Week 11. He would likely be an RB4, and I hope he sees good receiving value.

Pass Catchers

For the Cowboys pass catchers, they have one of the best matchups of the week. The Commanders allow the third most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have given up a league-high 15 receiving touchdowns. They have given up 12 receivers over 75 yards this season. CeeDee Lamb cooled down last week after three straight games of 150 yards. Lamb wasn’t needed as much in that game, but he should be able to eat on Thursday. Lamb should be able to get well over 100 yards quickly and will likely score a touchdown in Week 12. He is a WR1 in this matchup and potentially the WR1 of the week. Brandin Cooks has come alive in the last month with double-digit fantasy points in three of the previous five games. It was weird that Cooks did nothing in the one where the Cowboys had a shootout. I like Cooks to have a great game in this matchup. I will call Cooks a flex play and a low-end WR3 in Week 12.

Michael Gallup continues to see fewer snaps than Jalen Tolbert, but he still has more points in one game than Tolbert has the last three weeks. I probably would still consider both receivers outside the top 60 since their production is not guaranteed besides deep sleepers that are dart throws. For the tight end position, the Commanders are a favorable matchup team. For one, they have given up five receiving touchdowns to the position. Jake Ferguson has been a great surprise to the tight-end landscape. He has stepped up, especially in the red zone, with three touchdowns since the Cowboys bye week. Dak loves his tight ends and will continue to target them. Peyton Hendershot is returning, which is something to monitor with Ferguson snaps. He should still be a TE1 in Week 12.

The Commanders pass catchers will have a tough matchup against the Cowboys. They allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The Cowboys have only allowed four receivers to cross over the 70-receiving-yard mark this season. In the last four weeks, they have allowed just three receivers over 50 yards but have given up four receiving touchdowns. Terry McLaurin has been under ten fantasy points in the last three weeks. He is seeing a great target share with seven targets per game. McLaurin has averaged 53 receiving yards in seven career games. McLaurin’s best chance is if the Commanders fall into garbage time, allowing McLaurin to feed targets late. McLaurin is a low-end WR3 in this matchup.

For Jahan Dotson, he has a touchdown in three of the last four games. Unlike a few weeks ago, his Week 11 production didn’t offer me more confidence in his value. Curtis Samuel should be in this game, so Dotson’s production is still concerning. He is, at best, a WR5 in this game. Samuel is a borderline WR5. The tight end position is the one weak spot within the Cowboys defense. They rank in the bottom ten against tight ends. In the last six weeks, they have allowed six receiving touchdowns to the position. In that span, they have allowed three tight ends over 45 yards. Logan Thomas has been solid this year, averaging four receptions for 45 yards. Thomas is a borderline TE1 in Week 12.

San Fran 49ers vs Seatle Seahawks

Details of the Script

  • Thanksgiving – 8:20 p.m. @ Lumen Field
  • Weather – Clear Night
  • What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -7.0) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script

This is the first matchup between the 49ers and the Seahawks this season. Last time, the 49ers would win big over the Seahawks 41-23. The average total score between these two teams in the previous five games has been 46.8. The 49ers are coming off a good win over the Buccaneers. Seattle would lose a divisional game off a missed field goal at the end of the game. The 49ers will likely try to take advantage of Seattle’s not-so-good run defense. Seattle may have two stars on offense that could not be 100% off a short week. If Seattle can’t get their offense going, it could be a good Thanksgiving night for one of these teams in fantasy.


Brock Purdy has rebounded over the last few weeks to the player we liked at the end of last season. He has three straight games over 20 fantasy points. He has thrown for high yardage and has six touchdowns in the previous two games. The last time Purdy played the Seahawks, he put up 217 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Seattle has been great in the last five weeks, keeping four quarterbacks to three combined passing touchdowns. They also have been under 250 passing yards. Howell put up 300 yards and three passing touchdowns against them in week ten. Purdy has all the weapons to produce and should in this divisional matchup. Purdy should be a QB1 in Week 12.

Geno Smith is leaning towards playing on Thursday despite dealing with a tricep injury suffered on Sunday. Even healthy Smith has not been that great in fantasy this year. He has just one game over 20 fantasy points in the last six weeks. He has thrown for more touchdowns in that span but also started turning the ball over with eight turnovers. Drew Lock could also play, but he wasn’t that impressive in two games where he filled in for Smith. The 49ers allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I expect the 49ers to win this game, and opposing quarterbacks in games the 49ers win have averaged 217 passing yards and less than a touchdown per game. Smith would likely be a low-end QB2 at best, but leaving the game early could be possible. If Smith were to miss, Lock would be a QB3 not worth trusting. His gunslinging mentality is not good for his fantasy value.

Running Backs

For the 49ers backfield, it’s all about Christian McCaffrey. He had another elite performance in Week 11 and started a new touchdown streak. He gets a good matchup against the Seahawks, who rank in the bottom ten against fantasy running backs. Their run defense regarding yardage has been excellent, with just three running backs over 60 yards. They have allowed six total touchdowns to backfields in the last three weeks. CMC is a touchdown machine, so I expect him to see a few in this game. He is an RB1 in Week 12. Elijah Mitchell has seen 12 carries over the last two weeks, but perhaps he will see a few more in a short week. He is still likely outside my top 50 backs.

For the Seahawks, it looks likely that Ken Walker will miss this game after suffering an injury on Sunday. He was listed as doubtful against the 49ers. That would put Zach Charbonnet as the starter in this matchup. Charbonnet has been very efficient as a runner with his 4.9 YPC. The 49ers rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have allowed just two running backs over 60 yards this season. The 49ers haven’t allowed any back over 60 yards in games where they are winning. They have allowed a rushing touchdown in every other game over the last five weeks. This would be a week where they stop a rushing touchdown from happening. Unlike Ken Walker, Charbonnet will play more of a third-down workload due to his ability as a pass catcher. Charbonnet should see most of the work in the offense, especially with the targets. They may need to lean on him due to Geno Smith’s injury. He is a decent low-end RB2, even though the matchup is difficult. DeeJay Dallas would likely be the third-down back, but I don’t see much value there.

Pass Catchers

For the 49ers pass catchers, it’s a decent matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle has picked things up in their secondary after allowing a ton of production. In the last four weeks, they have allowed just two receivers over 60 yards. They have only given up three touchdowns compared to seven over the first six games. Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a big game where he had 150 yards. Aiyuk has at least 50 yards in eight of nine games this year. His target share is low, which could be concerning. Last season, Aiyuk averaged 41 per game in two games vs. Seattle. He should continue to see around six targets in this game. He is an excellent high-end WR2 in Week 12.

DENVER, CO – SEPTEMBER 25: San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) is hit after a catch by Denver Broncos safety Kareem Jackson (22) during a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on September 25, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Deebo Samuel has been able to stay on the field for the last two weeks. He has all-purpose yards over two games. In the previous four games, he has not been able to see over four targets. That doesn’t scream confident WR2. His rushing floor has come and gone this season, with last week being nonexistent. Samuel has only played Seattle four times in his career, averaging 100 yards per game. If Samuel doesn’t see over five targets, his upside will be capped. Samuel is a decent high-end WR2 in Week 12. George Kittle has been a beast for the tight end position in the last month of the season. He has over 75 yards in four straight games. He has been in a nice boom phase of his season. Seattle has only allowed one touchdown to a tight end but has allowed over 40 yards four times in the last four weeks. Kittle should be a fine TE1 in Week 12.

The matchup with the 49ers secondary is decent for the Seattle pass catchers. The question is who will play quarterback because Smith is questionable for this game. The 49ers are a middle-of-the-road defense against receivers this season. In four of the last five games, they have allowed a 100-yard receiver. In that span, they have given up six receiving touchdowns. This could be a decent matchup for DK Metcalf, whoever plays at quarterback. Metcalf is off the injury report, so he is a full go in this game. Metcalf has over 50 yards in five straight games. He averages 68.5 receiving yards in eight career games vs. the 49ers. Metcalf is a low-end WR2 in this matchup.

Tyler Lockett has over 50 yards in four of the last six games. Lockett has been banged up over the previous few weeks, but he will be good to go in this game. Lockett is a decent flex option as a WR3. He has seven-plus targets in five of the last six games. He should be fine with whoever plays quarterback. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to be a four-targets-for-50-yards type of player. He is limited due to Metcalf and Lockett staying healthy this season. JSN is a high-end WR5 in this matchup. For the tight end position, the 49ers allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The tight ends for the Seahawks have been useless in fantasy.

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Details of the Script

  • Black Friday – 3:00 p.m. @ Metlife Stadium
  • Weather – Sunny
  • What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -10.0) & Over/Under 41.5

Identifying the Game Script

We have the very first Black Friday game in NFL history. The Jets and the Dolphins are playing their first of two games of the season. The last time these two teams faced off, the Dolphins would win a low-scoring game 11-6 over the Jets. The Jets are coming off a terrible game against the Bills where nothing was pretty to watch. The Dolphins had a hard fought win over the Raiders. The Jets are switching quarterbacks as Tim Boyle is the new starter, and they hope he can give a spark against this Dolphins defense. The Dolphins may need to hope their run game can get going, as the Jet’s secondary is scary good this season. I’d expect this to be a very low-scoring outing on Friday.


Tua Tagovailoa had one of his decent games in Week 11, which seems to be very few in between. Tua is a boom/bust fantasy quarterback who has big games over 30 or finishes under 15 fantasy points. It was nice to see another decent outing from the Dolphins quarterback. Tua has a tough matchup against the Jets, as they rank inside the top ten against quarterbacks. They just got destroyed last week against Josh Allen, who usually never does well against them. Tua is another divisional quarterback who hasn’t done well against the Jets. In three career games, Tua averages 158 passing yards and one touchdown per game. Last season, Tua didn’t play the Jets due to injuries, so we haven’t seen what Tua can do with his elite offense. This feels like a game where the backfield will run all over the Jets, making Tua see minimal work with the potential to turn the ball over. Tua is a low-end QB1 since he does possess that upside but is riskier in this matchup.

Tim Boyle is getting the start in Week 12 as the Jets went ahead and finally benched Zach Wilson. Boyle started three games for the Lions in 2021. He averaged 178 passing yards in those three games with one touchdown and two interceptions. Boyle was filling in for Zach Wilson in Week 11, but they still managed to throw an interception late in the game during a blowout. Miami has allowed three of the last four quarterbacks with two passing touchdowns. With the return of Jalen Ramsey, we’ve seen this team pick up the turnovers with five in the previous four games. They had two interceptions in the first six games. Boyle should be in the for a QB3 day. I don’t think he is necessarily an improvement over Wilson, but in a different direction.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert remains the guy on the offense for the Dolphins backfield. Mostert has just three games under ten fantasy points all season. While Mostert has been a product of touchdowns, he still produced 80 rushing yards in back-to-back games. The Jets run defense is their weak spot, as they rank in the bottom ten in the league. They have given up a 100-yard rusher in two of the last four games. They don’t allow many touchdowns, with just three on the season. The Bills showed that pass-catching backs can produce against this Jets defense in Week 11. Mostert should be in line for 15-plus touches in a favorable matchup. He is a high-end RB2 in Week 12.

De’Von Achane will be tough to judge since he went out after four snaps with the same injury that put him on the IR. Achane is the type of player that requires you to take a significant risk in your lineup. He could do what he did in Week 11 with four touches or get you an RB1 week. Unless you don’t have a confident running back, play Achane and hope for the best. If Achane misses, Jeff Wilson has some RB4 appeal in Week 12.

For the Jets backfield, Breece Hall continues to dominate the touches in the offense. Unfortunately, Hall’s running game has not been good, with a 2.3 YPC over the last four games. Hall’s value has come in the passing game, where he produced more receiving yards than rushing yards in the previous four weeks. In his three starts, Boyle had minimal targets toward his backfields. The Dolphins have allowed decent yardage, with three of the previous five running backs over 60 yards. They have allowed just two rushing touchdowns over that span. The Dolphins have been good at not allowing many running backs to see receiving value in games. They haven’t allowed a back over two receptions since week two. I’m unsure what to expect with Boyle at quarterback, but we may see Hall pick up more carries.

Hall is a high-end RB2, as the offense keeps him from seeing the upside. Dalvin Cook played his most snaps since week four but saw minimal value. Cook played as the third down back. He is outside the top 50 running backs in Week 12. Israel Abanikanda was the primary early downs backup, but it will be interesting to see if he gets more work.

Pass Catchers

For the Dolphins pass catchers, we continue to care about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. While they are amazing receivers, they have a tough matchup against the Jets, who allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The Jets have allowed only two receiving touchdowns this season. They have allowed four receivers over 75 yards in the last five weeks. Last season, Tyreek Hill had 70 yards in two games against the Jets last season. For Jaylen Waddle, he has averaged 44 receiving yards in three career games.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – NOVEMBER 21: Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) during the National Football League game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins on November 21, 2021 at MetLife Stdium in East Rutherford, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Based on the numbers, it is not looking good, but neither has played with Tua against the Jets, especially last season. I will still rely on Tyreek Hill to be a WR1 in this game. He is still an elite option who will get nine-plus targets in this game. Hill will be fine. Jaylen Waddle, I have more concerns with him, as he had been under ten fantasy points in three of the last four games. I have him as a low-end WR2, but I don’t have full confidence. His upside is hard not to rank as a WR2. No other receiver is consistent to trust in this game, and the tight end position is useless in Miami.

For the Jets pass catchers, it’s only Garrett Wilson we need to talk about. I’m not sure Tim Boyle is an improvement over Zach Wilson, but it can’t be worse for Garrett Wilson. The Dolphins have stepped up against fantasy receivers, allowing just three receivers over 50 yards in the last six games. Garrett Wilson has averaged 58 receiving yards in two games vs. the Dolphins. I am concerned that Tim Boyle will not help Wilson with his upside. Miami’s secondary looks healthy and dangerous. Wilson isn’t going to thrive on Friday. I have him as a WR3 that you can flex in fantasy. I can’t trust that Allen Lazard or Xavier Gipson are valuable to Tim Boyle in fantasy. For the tight end position, Miami has been pretty good overall. They have allowed three tight ends over the last six games with 40 or more yards. Tyler Conklin failed to produce with 18 yards last week. In the prior two weeks, he did have 60 receiving yards. Conklin is a low-end TE2 in Week 12

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