|Elite Starting Option
|Elite Starting Option
|Elite Starting Option
|Strong Starting Option
|High End QB 2
|Great for SF/Sleeper QB1
|Strong Starting Option
|Great Starting Option
|Low End TE 1
|Good Starting Option
|Mid/Low QB 2
|Decent/Sleeper for SuperFlex
|Good WR3/Strong Flex Option
|High End RB 3
|Good Starting Option/ Flex Play
|High End TE 2
|Decent Starting Option
|Risky Superflex Play/Sit
|Shakey Flex Option/Decent in WR3 Flex
|Mid/Low RB 3
|Flex Play/ 1B Option
|Low end TE 2
|Players inbetween options
|Desperate Flex Play/Deep Sleeper
|Back ups with upside/favorable matchup
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @Nissan Stadium
- Weather -Partly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (IND -1.0) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Colts and Titans are having the second of two matchups this season. Last time, the Colts would win 23-16 over the Titans. The Colts are coming off a solid win over the Bucs but just lost Jonathan Taylor for a few games. The Titans would beat the lousy Panthers and pick up their fourth win of the season. Look for the Titans to get Derrick Henry the ball against the Colts not-so-great run defense while limiting their rookie quarterback. The Colts need to play better on the offense, starting with Gardner Minshew. The overall matchup is good for the whole offense, as players like Zack Moss and Michael Pittman should do well. This should be a decent game for fantasy production overall.
Gardner Minshew continues to be mediocre in fantasy football. He has been under 20 fantasy points in all but one game this season. Minshew got unlucky in Week 12 as he scored that rushing touchdown, or he would have been under ten fantasy points in back-to-back games. The Titans have allowed two of the last three quarterbacks to pass over 250 yards and two touchdowns. The last time Minshew came in for an injured Anthony Richardson and only threw for 155 yards and zero touchdowns. Minshew is the best of the worst in an average matchup. The Colts may throw the ball slightly more because Jonathan Taylor is out. Minshew is at best a mid-range QB2 in Week 13.
Will Levis also hasn’t been great in fantasy in these five starts. He has three games under ten fantasy points. I don’t think it’s entirely his fault, as the team is holding him back and focusing on the run. He also doesn’t have much to throw to besides an aging DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts have done well against quarterbacks over the last five weeks despite playing some mediocre fantasy talent. They have allowed five passing touchdowns and only one quarterback over 200 passing yards. Levis is not much better than the likes of Byrce Young, PJ Walker, or Baker Mayfield. Levis will continue to have average numbers at best as they lean on the run. Levis is a low-end QB2 in Week 13.
The Colts backfield will be without Jonathan Taylor in this matchup. Zach Moss will return as the starting running back. Moss, between weeks two and five, was RB4 on the season. He had over 400 rushing yards and scored four touchdowns. He saw 18-plus carries in all four games. The Titans have been an average run defense in 2023 after years of being elite. They have allowed three running backs over 60 rushing yards in the last five games. They have not allowed that in the previous three weeks. Moss should be able to eat on the ground in this matchup with 15-plus carries. I don’t think the Colts have a solid backup for Moss, so he should see most of the work. The Colts want to run the ball and let Minshew try to play smart football. The Titans offense won’t pull ahead, leaving Moss in the dust. Moss is a high-end RB2 in Week 13. Trey Sermon is the backup but would still be outside the top 50 running backs.
For the Titans, the backfield continues to be about Derrick Henry. He is coming off a great fantasy day with over 20 fantasy points. This week was an excellent matchup for Henry as the Colts rank in the bottom ten against fantasy running backs. In the previous five weeks, the Colts have allowed seven running backs over 50 yards, and two of them went over 80 yards. They have given up six rushing touchdowns in that span but none in the last two weeks. Henry has returned to playing more snaps than Tyjae Spears in the previous two weeks. All season long, Henry has out-touched Spears in the defense. Last time, Henry only had seven fantasy points, but I think things will be different. Henry will see 15-plus years this time at home and should be able to finish as a low-end RB1 in Week 13. Spears has been over five fantasy points, just one in the last five games. He is an RB4 but not a trusted one in Week 13.
For the Colts receivers, they have a solid matchup against the Titans. The Titans rank in the bottom ten against receivers this season. They have allowed five touchdowns to a receiver in the last five weeks. They have allowed a receiver in each game to produce at least 60 receiving yards. Last time, Josh Downs had his breakout game with 97 yards, and Michael Pittman was a solid 56 yards. Michael Pittman has been very good this season. He has double-digit fantasy points in six straight games and has eight-plus targets in the last four games. He should be a WR1 in this matchup.
Josh Downs‘ first game off the bye week saw 13 targets. Downs is heavily involved when he is on the field with Minshew. Downs should see close to ten targets again and hopefully have better production than last week. Downs is a borderline WR2 in Week 13. Alec Pierce continues to disappoint in 2023. He has not a single game over ten fantasy points this season. He would be outside the top 60 this week. The Colts don’t have a reliable option at tight end, and the Titans allow the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.
For the Titans receivers, they do have an okay matchup against the Colts. The Colts have allowed only three receivers in the last five games to go over 60 receiving yards. They have allowed four touchdowns in the previous five weeks. Last time, DeAndre Hopkins randomly put up 140 yards against the Colts with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. In three of the last four games, Hopkins has been under ten fantasy points. It’s hard to trust any pass catcher on the Titans right now. Hopkins would be a borderline WR2 in this matchup for Week 13. The Hopeful return of Treylon Burks could take the pressure off of Hopkins. Burks practiced in full on Thursday, so there is a good chance he is back. Burks has an upside in his game that could make him a low-end WR5 at best.
The rest of the receivers likely won’t have value with Burks back on the field. They would all be outside the top 60 receivers. For the tight ends, the Colts are a bottom-ten defense against the position. They have allowed at least 45 receiving yards to the opposing tight end in three of the last five games. They have not given up a touchdown in that span. Chig Okonkwo is coming off his best receiving yardage of the season with 45 yards. It’s still hard to trust Okonkwo since he has not done much this season. Okonkwo would be a low-end TE2 in Week 13.
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Gillette Stadium
- Weather – Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -5.5) & Over/Under 40.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams faced off was in the 2021 season. The Patriots would win 27-24 over the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a bad loss against the Ravens, as the Chargers offense couldn’t do anything. The Patriots are a mess and would lose the Giants as they played two quarterbacks in Week 12. The Chargers are looking to find a spark on the offense and hopefully get the run game going in a good matchup. The Patriots will have a new quarterback, but can they take advantage of the Chargers terrible secondary? The answer is probably not. I expect this game to be very one-sided, but we know how the Chargers love losing games, so this could be a surprise game.
Justin Herbert had a down game in Week 12, finishing under 20 fantasy points. He has done that in three of the last six games. Herbert needs more weapons around him besides throwing to only Keenan Allen. The Patriots are a tough team overall, ranking in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. In the last three weeks, they have kept opposing quarterbacks under 20 fantasy points, but you can easily argue those quarterbacks are not as good as Herbert. They did allow in weeks seven and eight, with opposing quarterbacks over 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers need to change things up, and hopefully, they figured out their issues during the week. Herbert must still be a QB1 in this matchup, as his talent has an upside. He is more of a low-end QB1 in Week 13. I wouldn’t expect one of Herbert’s 30-point games.
Bailey Zappe will get a chance to start again for the Patriots. In four starts last season, Zappe’s play almost made folks question if they should even go back to Mac Jones. He had one game where he threw for 300 yards and had two touchdowns. The good news for Zappe is that he gets to play the Chargers for Week 13. They have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Chargers have allowed a passer over 260 passing yards in three of the last four games. They have given up two touchdown games in two of the previous four games. It’s hard to expect much from this Patriots team, but perhaps Zappe can gain some confidence with the start. He doesn’t have many weapons to work with, but the matchup makes so much sense. Zappe moves into that low-end QB2 range in Week 13. He wouldn’t be a confident start in Superflex leagues.
The backfield has not been good for the Chargers the last two weeks. Austin Ekeler has combined 12 fantasy points. Ekeler has not scored but has turned the ball over twice. He also had 38 receiving yards over those two weeks. I wonder if age is catching up to Ekeler this season since his production has been so up and down. Especially with the lack of good receivers, Ekeler should see more targets in the offense. The Patriots have been a decent run defense this season. In the last five weeks, each running back has at least 40 rushing yards but no more than 70 yards. They have allowed minimal production in the receiving game to running backs this season. Just three running backs have over 40 yards in a game. I would assume that Ekeler can bounce back in a decent matchup. He just needs more targets in the passing game. Ekeler is a RB1 in Week 13. Joshua Kelley doesn’t have much value right now but is a low-end RB4 at best.
For the Patriots backfield, we saw Rhamondre Stevenson coming off a great game. Over the last three games, Stevenson has ten-plus fantasy points. He is running over 5.0 YPC and has seen five targets in each game. He seems to be picking up steam in the offense. In three of the last four weeks, the Chargers have allowed a 60-yard rusher. The receiving game has some value, but no running back has been over 40 yards. Stevenson should be able to come in with 15-plus carries since the quarterback position is useless for the Patriots. They are going to continue to run the ball more and more. Stevenson should be a solid mid-range RB2. Zeke Elliott was limited in practice but has eaten into Stevenson’s carries. He has been decent, with 40 yards in back-to-back games. Elliott could score a touchdown and be a low-end RB3 in Week 13.
The Chargers receivers have a favorable matchup against the Patriots as they rank in the bottom ten. In the last five weeks, they have allowed five receivers over 70 receiving yards. In that same span, they have allowed six receiving touchdowns. The issue in Week 13 is whether or not Keenan Allen will play. He has been dealing with an injury that has forced him not to practice this week. If Allen plays, I’d still rank as a WR1 since he would have a great game. You’d have to assume he is good enough to go if he plays. This would open the door for Quentin Johnston to step up again. Since Mike WIlliams went down, Johnston has been over 40 yards once in seven games. He was benched last week, so the faith in him is low. Usually, Johnston would be a WR5 at best, but if Allen misses, he may jump into the WR4 range. He would be a risky play but have great upside as well.
Joshua Palmer will likely not play in this game, so Jalen Guyton’s name is one to know. He had that one solid game a few weeks ago, but last week was bad. I assume he gets another shot to produce in a favorable matchup. He would also be a WR5 in Week 13. For the tight ends, the Patriots allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They have locked down the position outside three young tight ends who got 75 yards. Gerald Everett is coming off a solid game where he put up 12 fantasy points. Everett has been under ten fantasy points in most games for most of the season. If Allen were to miss or not be 100%, it could mean more targets for Everett. Everett is like a decent high-end TE2 in Week 13.
For the Patriots receivers, they have a fantastic matchup in week 13. The Chargers allow the 3rd most fantasy points per game to receivers. The Chargers have only allowed three receivers over the last five weeks to produce over 60 yards. They have played poor receiving groups, including the Patriots, in the past five weeks. The Patriots best receiver, Demario Douglas, has been out with a concussion this week and is likely not playing. If he does play, he would be a WR3, but likely, he won’t be playing. Devante Parker, who plays most of the offensive snaps, may have value in this game. Parker had 40 yards last week but could see most of the targets in this game. Parker would be a low-end WR5 in this matchup.
JuJu Smith-Shuster has been a nonfactor and will stay that way. His lack of production would not be worth trying in this matchup. The Chargers rank in the bottom ten for the tight ends against the position. They have allowed 40 yards to a tight end in four of the last five games. Despite playing most of the snaps, Hunter Henry did not see a target last week. I’d go back to Henry as an option in the middle of the field for the Patriots quarterback. He could put up four receptions for 40 yards, and you’d feel good about that. Henry is a high-end TE2 that is still risky in this game.
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Caesars Superdome
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -4.5) & Over/Under 46.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Lions and the Saints haven’t played since the 2020 season. The Saints would win a shootout 35-29 over the Lions on the road. The Lions are coming off a surprise loss to a divisional foe but are looking to rebound this week. The Saints would lose to the Falcons and the top spot in the NFC South. Look for the Lions to take advantage of a Soso Saints defense as they get their offense back on track in this matchup. If Derek Carr can get a few healthy pass-catchers, they both have a good fantasy matchup in this game. The Lions secondary has not been that great this year. I like this game to be higher scoring as these teams could go back and forth all game.
Derek Carr was disappointed in Week 12 as he finished with ten fantasy points. Carr could be in trouble with a short-hand receiver group. The Lions are ranked in the bottom ten against fantasy quarterbacks. The Lions have been worst in the last five weeks against their opposing quarterbacks. They have given up 250 passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns in three of the previous five games. They were against quarterbacks who are elite options in fantasy. Derek Carr can throw for 300 yards very easily, but his touchdowns are minimal, with only two on the season. Touchdowns are essential for quarterbacks, but Carr isn’t providing us with that. Carr can put up solid numbers at home despite the potential lack of pass-catchers. Due to a big bye week, Carr is a high-end QB2 in Week 13.
Jared Goff is coming off a decent game on Thanksgiving despite the Lions being beaten down. Goff hasn’t been all that great over the last month, with three games under 16 fantasy points. Goff would have had better fantasy outings the previous two weeks, but he has turned the ball over six times. Goff is playing well but killing his fantasy value to trust him. The Saints have been solid over their last five games against fantasy quarterbacks. They have not allowed one quarterback over 230 passing yards and seven touchdowns in those five games. Despite being 4-1 on the road, Goff has only thrown for six touchdowns in those games. Goff has an elite offense surrounding him, but the offense isn’t running through him. Goff should be able to put up 230 passing yards and a touchdown or two. He could be a borderline QB1 in Week 13.
For the Saints running backs, this could be a game in which Alvin Kamara gets very involved. Kamara has been solid but not elite the last three weeks. Clearly, the touchdowns have been missing from Kamara’s game the previous three weeks. The lack of potential receivers in week 13 could lead to Kamara seeing closer to ten targets. The Lions are a tough matchup as they rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs this year. They have not been the same elite-run defense in the last five weeks. They have allowed three running backs in the previous five weeks over 60 yards. They have given up four touchdowns in the last five weeks compared to two in the first six weeks. Kamara should be fine in this matchup, as his value comes in the receiving game. Kamara should be an RB1 in week 13, and expect him to see eight targets on Sunday. Jamaal Williams has done nothing as the backup this season and is a borderline RB4 at best.
The Lions backfield has been fantastic with their Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery duo. They have been great starting running backs in each game since their bye week. Gibbs has seen 19 targets in the last three weeks, while Montgomery has three straight touchdowns. The Saints have been a favorable spot for fantasy running backs. They have allowed six 50-yard rushers in the last five games. The Saints can’t seem to stop the run game and have allowed four rushing touchdowns in the previous five weeks. It may be a game script for these two running backs. If they are behind, Gibbs would see a bump, and Montgomery would see a bump if they are winning. I would put Gibbs as an RB1. His upside is elite, and he has the rising volume to be first in this game. Montgomery is a high-end RB2 and should have chances to score a touchdown.
For the Saints receivers, they have a great matchup against the Lions. The Lions rank in the bottom ten against the receivers. They have allowed eight receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. They also gave up four receivers with over 70 receiving yards in that span. It’s a great matchup, but who will be available is the issue. Chris Olave is in concussion protocol right now, but it looks more likely that he could play on Sunday. If Olave plays, he will be a WR1 in Week 13. Rashid Shaheed has not practiced this week due to a thigh injury and will miss this game. If they both miss, that would open the doors for AT Perry and Keith Kirkwood as the top two receivers. They will have WR5 value in this matchup with upside if there is no Olave or Shaheed. If Olave plays, they would likely be outside the top 60 but have some deep sleeper appeal.
For the tight ends, the Lions have been great against the position. They have allowed just one tight end over 20 yards in the last five weeks. Due to the injuries at the receiver position, this could open the door to the tight ends. Taysom Hill was okay the last two weeks, but he would likely be a big part of the offense in week 13. I’d say that Hill is a start and a TE1 in Week 13. Juwan Johnson is coming off 40 receiving yards in week 12. He would likely see more targets with the lack of receivers in this game. He would probably be a borderline TE1 in Week 13. He has great value since Hill is used everywhere, so Johnson will get his opportunity.
For the Lions receivers, they do have a tougher matchup against the Saints. They rank in the top ten against fantasy receivers. The Saints have allowed four receivers over 70 yards in the last five weeks but only two receiving touchdowns. Amon-Ra St.Brown has been nothing short of amazing this season. He should be able to thrive in this game. He will be a WR1 in Week 13. Jameson Williams has played more in the last month, but the production is not there yet. In a week where there are plenty of teams on bye, Williams may be worth WR5 value as a big-play flex option.
Josh Reynolds caught a touchdown in Week 12 but was only targeted four times in that game. He is still outside my top 60 receivers. For the tight ends, the Saints rank in the bottom ten against the position. The Saints used to be elite against tight ends, but not in 2023. They have allowed four touchdowns in the last five weeks. They also have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards in that span. Sam LaPorta had a nice bounce-back week in Week 12 with 13 fantasy points. He should continue to see at least five targets per game and be able to produce. LaPorta is a TE1 in Week 13.
Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Metlife Stadium
- Weather – Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -2.0) & Over/Under 33.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams faced off was during the 2021 season. The Falcons would win 27-20 over the Jets at home. The Falcons are coming off a solid win over a division foe as they take over the NFC South. The Jet’s change at quarterback would not help their offense, as they lost to the Dolphins on Black Friday. The Falcons will look to run the ball with all their running backs as much as possible in a rainy game. The Jets don’t have a great run defense. The Jets will attempt to play well against the Falcon’s bad secondary but likely will fail. This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game on Sunday.
Desmond Ridder was not great coming off the Falcons bye week. They may have won, but Ridder threw two interceptions and threw for under 200 passing yards. Ridder has been terrible on the road in 2023. He has a 1-2 touchdown to interception ratio and averages 161 passing yards in five games. The Jets allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Outside of Josh Allen’s big week 11 game, they have been great against fantasy quarterbacks. In the last six weeks, they have allowed six passing touchdowns. They allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for over 250 yards in the past six weeks. Ridder hasn’t shown that he can beat a tough defense like the Jets, especially on the road. I’d expect the Falcons to continue to run the ball and allow Ridder to do very little in this game. Ridder is a low-end QB2 only since the bye weeks are crazy in Week 13.
Tim Boyle wasn’t good in Week 12 but wasn’t a total disaster either. If he hadn’t thrown a pick at the end of the half, he would have had 11 Fantasy points, which is about average for a Jets quarterback. He has as many passing touchdowns as Zach Wilson had the last three weeks. The Falcons are a bottom-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks this year. They have allowed over 230 passing yards in five straight games. Despite the decent passing yards, they have allowed just seven passing touchdowns in five games. The Falcons have been a team in which mobile quarterbacks have thrived against this defense. I wouldn’t expect Tim Boyle to do that. Boyle will likely have short throws as the Jets continue to try to run the football. Boyle is a QB3 in Week 13.
For the Falcons backfield, Bijan Robinson is coming off his best game of this rookie career. In comparison, Robinson did well with 16 carries, and Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 18 carries. This backfield is going to continue to have everyone get involved. The Jets are a favorable matchup as they rank in the bottom ten against Fantasy quarterbacks. The Jets have allowed a 70-plus-yard rusher in four of the last five games. They don’t typically give up touchdowns, but when they do, the opposing running back will usually get two of them. Robinson should be able to get 12-plus carries in this game since it’s supposed to rain. Let’s not forget the receiving value that he has in this offense. Robinson should be an RB1 in Week 13. Tyler Allgeier has seen good carries as the backup; he had ten in Week 12. He will get his work in a favorable matchup and finish with decent numbers. In this mega bye week, Allgeier is a low-end RB3. Patterson’s role is a little cloudy, but he would still be outside the top 50 running backs unless he shows more work as the RB3 for this team.
Breece Hall continues to be inefficient as a runner for the Jets’ backfield since the Jets’ by in week seven. He has been running at a 2.4 YPC, but his receiving value is keeping him alive in fantasy. He has at least eight-plus fantasy points in those last five games. The Falcons allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. For one, the Falcons are the last team this season to not allow a rushing touchdown. They have allowed three running backs in the previous five games to have 65-plus rushing yards. The good thing in that span is that we saw three opposing running backs have 45-plus receiving yards, which can give hope for Hall. Hall will see most of the work in the offense, but knowing how much work he will get in the receiving area will be critical. Trusting his offense with Tim Boyle to get help moving the ball with Hall is hard. He is a mid-range RB2 in Week 13. Dalvin Cook is a low-end RB4 at best.
For the Falcons receivers, they have the worst matchup this weekend. The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. In the last five weeks, that secondary has not been as strong, but it shows how elite they were in the early part of the season. They have allowed a receiver to go over 75 yards in the last four games. They have allowed a touchdown in back-to-back games and 100 yards. They just played two high-power passing offenses in the Bills and Dolphins. The Falcons don’t come close to that notion. Drake London is coming off an excellent game with 91 yards in Week 12. London’s production has not been consistent with Ridder at quarterbacks. In a game that could prevent deep passes, London is a player I’d prefer to sit. It’s hard to trust the receivers in this game. London is a WR4 in Week 13. There are no other receivers worth mentioning here.
For the tight ends, the Jets have allowed just two tight ends over 20 yards in the last five weeks. They also have allowed just one touchdown in the previous five weeks after allowing five in the first six weeks. Kyle Pitts has fallen back to more of a mid-range TE2 in this matchup. It’s hard to trust Pitts will get the ball enough to produce. Jonnu Smith has disappeared the last two weeks after his monster 100-yard game. We’ve seen Smith’s snaps fall in the last two games, making him a risky play. Smith has fallen to a low-end TE2 in Week 13.
For the Jets receivers, the Falcons have a decent secondary this season. They have allowed four receivers over 50 yards in the last five weeks. They have given up six receiving touchdowns in that span. The only receiver that is worth mentioning is Garrett Wilson. Wilson has not been great the last month, with just one game over ten fantasy points. Wilson has struggled to get good targets from his terrible quarterbacks. He should continue to see high targets in this game, but the production may not be there. Wilson is a high-end WR3 that has upside but a scary floor. No other receiver is worth mentioning. For the tight ends, the Falcons allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. They haven’t allowed a touchdown in the last five games but have given up five tight ends over 40 yards. Tyler Conklin has had three decent games over November. He should see four to five targets and finish as a high-end TE2.
Arizona Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Acrisure Stadium
- Weather – Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (PIT -5.5) & Over/Under 41.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Cardinals and Steelers would face off was in the 2019 season. The Steelers would win 23-17 on the road against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are coming off a terrible loss to the Rams. The Steelers, in their new offense scheme, would beat a divisional foe and put up 400 offensive yards for the first time since the 2020 season. The Cardinals will look for Kyler Murray to do his thing to move the offense if they can get the run game going against the Steelers average run defense. The Steelers will likely use their backfield to run all over the Cardinal’s terrible run defense. This could be a messy football game if there is a lot of rain on Sunday.
Kyler Murray has been solid in his three starts since he has returned from injury. He has at least 200 passing yards and five total touchdowns. The Steelers are a tough matchup, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. In the last five weeks, the Steelers have allowed just four passing touchdowns. They have given up some decent yardage, with three of those five quarterbacks over 250 passing yards. They have not given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback and allowed just one to produce over 25 rushing yards. Murray has boosted his fantasy finishes by scoring a rushing touchdown in every game. Murray has the talent to defy the odds in a tough matchup in Week 13. Murray will find ways to run and should be a low-end QB1 in this matchup.
Kenny Pickett is just not a fantasy quarterback. He gets whatever job done that the Steelers need him to do to keep the team on the winning side. The positive side is that Pickett had his most passing yards this season and the second most ever in a game. Pickett is not a touchdown guy; he has 13 passing touchdowns in 23 starts. Pickett will get another chance against a good matchup with the Cardinals. They are a bottom-ten team against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed multiple touchdown games in three of the last four games. They have allowed a QB1 to the previous two opposing quarterbacks. Perhaps with this new look offense, Pickett could look better at home. I would love to trust Pickett since he has great weapons plus a good matchup. This would be a game I want to see if Pickett can do it with the new offense. He is a low-end QB2 in Week 13.
For the Cardinals backfield, you should expect James Connor to continue to lead the charge. Connor has not been great since his return to action. He has been under ten fantasy points in each game since returning to the field. The biggest thing is that he has not scored yet since returning, and his production has not been great. The Steelers are one of the bad run defenses this season. In the last five weeks, they have allowed a 70-plus rusher in three of those games. They have stopped running backs from doing well in the previous two weeks against divisional foes. Connor should continue to see most early downs work, but he may not be a true workhorse back like in recent years. Connor is a borderline RB2 in this matchup. We could also see Michael Carter or Emari Demercado get some action as both profile as pass-catching backs. Demercado was more involved in the early game last week, and Carter took over when the game was out of hand. I’d give Demercado low-end RB4 value, but don’t be surprised Carter gets more involved.
For the Steelers backfield, we are seeing much better fantasy production. Since the Steelers week seven bye, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are top 12 in fantasy football in that stretch. Harris is seeing double-digit carries on most of those games, plus four touchdowns in that stretch. Warren has three games over 80 yards and scored three touchdowns in that time. The backfield is thriving, and they get a great matchup against the Cardinals. The Cardinals allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed five running backs over 70 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed six 100-yard running backs this season. Harris has run well at a 4.0 YPC since the Steelers bye week. They rely on him when they get down to the red zone. He should be able to punch one in for a touchdown in Week 13. Harris is a borderline RB1 in Week 13. Jaylen Warren wasn’t that great last week, but he has shown us that he has the speed to take one to the house at any moment. Warren is a low-end RB2 that should do very well in lineups.
The Cardinals receivers have a decent matchup against the Steelers, who rank in the bottom ten vs. receivers. In the last five weeks, the Steelers have allowed six receivers over 50 yards but two over 80 yards. The Steelers don’t allow massive games to the receivers, but decent ones for sure. They have also only allowed two touchdowns in the last five weeks. Hollywood Brown has not practiced much and is very questionable for Sunday’s game. If Brown can play, he would be a WR3 in this matchup at best. He is coming off a much better game but hasn’t done well with Murray. Rondale Moore could step up in this game, but his targets are inconsistent in fantasy. He would be, at best, a WR5 in this game. He has an upside, but that would depend on how much opportunity the coaching staff gives him.
Greg Dortch is going to rise big time in week 13. Dortch has 17 targets in the last two weeks and finished both games with ten fantasy points. Michael Wilson is already out, and Brown could be too. That would leave Dortch as Murray’s number-one target. Dortch, for now, is in that high-end WR4 range, but you could argue without Brown that he jumps into the WR3/Flex option. For the tight end, the Steelers rank in the top ten against the position. Trey McBride is dealing with an injury that has limited him for most of the week. If he plays, you have to assume he can be a TE1 since he has seen seven-plus targets in three straight games. He is turning into a young elite option at the tight end position. If he can’t go, Geoff Swaim or even Elijah Higgins, the rookie, could have some deep sleeper appeal.
For the Steelers receivers, the matchup against the Cardinals is decent. They have allowed four receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. Opposing teams haven’t needed to throw since the Cardinal run defense is so bad. That could leave the receiver’s average finishes since their upside could be capped. Diontae Johnson had 50 yards last game but has been bad overall the previous three weeks. I’m not expecting much besides WR3 numbers. George Pickens is also coming off a 50-yard game but has been below average since Johnson joined the team. He would also likely be a WR3 in this matchup. They are fine flex plays, but their upside is capped due to Kenny Pickett and the improvements in the backfield.
For the tight ends, the Cardinals are showing a weakness in the position. They have allowed five touchdowns in the last five weeks. The yardage has been under 40 yards in each game, but touchdowns are worth more anyway. Pat Freiermuth is coming off a monster game where he finished over 100 yards. Freiermuth should be a target leader again in this game but don’t expect the same Week 12 production. He should be productive to finish as a TE1 in lineups in Week 13.
Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Fedex Field
- Weather – Potential Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -9.5) & Over/Under 49.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams would face off was the 2019 season. The Commanders would win 17-16 on the road over the Dolphins. The Dolphins are coming off a solid win over the lousy Jets on the first Black Friday game. The Commanders would get their butt kicked on Thanksgiving by the Dallas Cowboys. The Dolphins will look to take full advantage of the Commanders horrific secondary this season. I’d expect the Dolphins passing game to thrive on Sunday. The Commanders don’t have an easy fantasy matchup, but if they can continue to beat the odds and provide us with good fantasy outings from their players on Sunday. I’d expect this to be a high-scoring game in which many fantasy players succeed.
Tua Tagovailoa remains the biggest boom/bust fantasy quarterback in 2023. It was clear Tua would have a tough matchup last week, and he finished under ten fantasy points. Part of Tua’s issue is that he has five turnovers in the previous two weeks. Turnovers can kill a fantasy quarterback from producing. He gets the best matchup all weekend against the Commanders. They allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Unless you are Mac Jones, every quarterback the COmmanders have faced finished as a QB1 in their week. In three of the last four games, they have allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for 300 yards and at least have three passing touchdowns. This is a get-right game for Tua since the Commanders have one turnover on a quarterback in the last six weeks: Mac Jones. Tua and his weapons should have a field day on Sunday. Unless they go crazy with the run game, Tua should finish as a QB1 in Week 13.
Sam Howell has been average in three of the last four weeks. He has been under 20 fantasy points in those three games. Miami’s defense has improved dramatically in the last month of the season. They have kept three of the previous five quarterbacks under 200 passing yards. The touchdowns have been there for opposing quarterbacks, so Howell has a good chance to throw for at least two. The Dolphins are creating turnovers, with seven in the last five weeks. Howell always seems like a guy with at least one turnover per game. I will continue to trust Howell; he has been having a great season outside of a few games. If this game falls out of reach early for Howell, it will provide him much-needed garbage time and prop up his game stats. I like Howell as a QB1 in this matchup.
For the Dolphins backfield, Raheem Mostert continues to be the consistent factor to produce in fantasy. He continues to find ways to score touchdowns, with 15 on the season. In the last two weeks, he had 20 carries in both games. The Commanders are a more favorable run defense for this backfield. In three of the previous four weeks, they have allowed a 75-yard rusher or better. They gave up seven total touchdowns in the last five weeks, and half received touchdowns. Since the trade deadline, it is easy to say that the Commanders have gotten even weaker on the ground. While the passing game is a juicy matchup, expect Mostert to be for a good game. The return of DeVon Achane could be an issue, but I think the Dolphins want him to be there for their playoff run. I doubt they give him a ton of work in a favorable matchup. Mostert should see 17 plus touches in this game and finish as an RB1. If Achane plays, I must give him a shot as an RB3. He only needs four touches to get over 100 yards somehow. Jeff Wilson could be interesting in this game. I have him as an RB4, but he could be an RB3 if Achane misses. This backfield should be in for a good day.
For the Commanders backfield, many of us are enjoying Brian Robinson‘s breakout season. He is still a top-five running back this season. Last week was just average, but Robinson has found ways to be good. It is usually not based on his rushing yards, but he has scored a lot and sees up-and-down usage as a receiver. The Dolphins have been a better team against fantasy running backs recently. They have allowed just two running backs over 40 rushing yards. They haven’t given up a rushing touchdown in four weeks. Robinson has shown that he has at least a floor game and has an upside. He is a solid mid-range RB2 in this matchup. This usage makes him a safe play in a fantasy. Antonio Gibson has had ten fantasy points in two of the last three games. This could be a game where he sees at least five targets, which is when he finishes in that ten fantasy point range. I have him as a high-end RB4 with some upside this week.
For the Dolphins receivers, they have a fantastic matchup in Week 13. The Commanders allow the second most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed eight receiving touchdowns over the last five weeks. The Commanders also allowed ten receivers over 50 yards in that span. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are WR1s in Week 13. They will have monster games against one of the worst secondaries in football. I’d love to offer up a third option, but none of the DOlphins backups have been anywhere consistent in targets. Durham Smythe has been nonexistent for the tight-end position for fantasy lineups and is outside the top 24 tight ends.
For the Commanders receivers, the Dolphins have been much better against the position. They have allowed just one receiver over 50 yards in the last five weeks. They have given up five receiving touchdowns in that span. Terry McLaurin has been under ten fantasy points in four straight games; Howell is throwing for over 300 yards, but McLaurin isn’t clicking with him again. McLaurin would be a borderline WR2 in Week 13. Jahan Dotson had had decent games the last two weeks. He takes a back seat to Curtis Samuel in targets when they are both on the field. Dotson is, at best, a low-end WR4 despite the talent he offers.
Curtis Samuel is coming off a great game with 100 yards. Samuel has played well in this offense when he is healthy and on the field. I like Samuel as a low-end WR3 and a decent flex option you can trust in fantasy. The Dolphins have allowed decent yardage for the tight ends over the last five weeks. They have gone four straight games, not allowing a touchdown to the position. Logan Thomas is coming off his worst game since week six. Thomas is a fine tight end since he sees the target shares in most weeks. The Commanders should be behind in this game, so expect Thomas to see more targets. Thomas is a low-end TE1 in Week 13.
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ NRG Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (HOU -3.0) & Over/Under 47.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Broncos and the Texans faced off last season as the Broncos won 16-9 at home. The Broncos are coming off another win as they would handle the Browns easily. The Texans would allow the Jaguars to get their revenge, as the Texans would lose to a missed field goal at the end of the game. The Broncos must continue doing what they have been doing: playing great defense and being efficient on the offense. The fantasy options will be tough for the Broncos this week. The Texans play the Broncos, who have a terrible run defense, but they love to throw the ball with CJ Stroud. This is a make-or-break game for both teams trying to make the playoffs. I don’t think this will have major fantasy players in Week 13.
Russell Wilson has been average in fantasy football during the Broncos winning streak. He has just two games over 20 fantasy points in the last six weeks. He has only one time since week five over 200 passing yards. The Texans have allowed a two-touchdown game to the previous four opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed over 300 passing yards in four of the last seven games. The lowest passer in that stretch had 214 yards. Even that is above Wilson’s average in this stretch of games. The Broncos will need to rely on Wilson a little to win this game on the road. I think Wilson should be able to get back over 200 yards and find a way to score two touchdowns. Wilson should be a high-end QB2 in Week 13.
CJ Stroud has been playing very well in the last four games. He has 300 passing yards in each game and has a combined 13 total touchdowns. Stroud is coming into a tough matchup, as the Broncos have been a tough defense over the last five games. They have kept all five opposing quarterbacks under 250 passing yards and only given up five passing touchdowns in that stretch. The Broncos have turned it around since their early season struggles. They played two elite quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Besides a few rushing touchdowns given up, they have played passers well recently. CJ Stroud has had easy opponents recently, so this will be a good test. At home, I feel stronger about Stroud delivering, but it may not be as good as we want. I can see him finishing around the 22-point range in Week 13. Stroud has the talent of this young offense to finish as a QB1.
For the Broncos backfield, Javonte Williams has been during the Broncos’ winning streak. He isn’t being amazed, but he does have three of the last six games over ten fantasy points. Williams has caught two receiving touchdowns in the previous six weeks. Williams is one of two running backs without a rushing touchdown this season. The Texans have been a better team against running backs in the last month. They have allowed just two running backs over 50 rushing yards in the previous five games and given up only three rushing touchdowns since week four. Williams has averaged double-digit carries since returning from his bad hip injury. Williams should see good usage in this game, especially on the ground. Hopefully, he can continue to see a few more targets in the air. He is a mid-range RB2 in Week 13. Samaje Perine has ten fantasy points in back-to-back games. Perine got lucky last week with that touchdown but still ran well for 55 yards. His involvement seems more consistent if the Broncos fall behind in this game. Perine offers borderline RB3 numbers in a big bye week.
Devin Singletary has been a potential league-winner type of running back for the last three weeks. Singletary took full advantage of a Dameon Pierce injury to make his case. Even with Pierce back in Week 12, Singeltary still played over 80% of the offensive snaps. While they should go down to more of a 70/30, this is Singeletary’s job to lose moving forward. He gets the best matchup of the weekend in the Broncos. They allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They have allowed six running backs to produce over 60 rushing yards in the last five weeks. The one thing that could be a concern is that the Broncos have only given up one rushing touchdown in the last six weeks. Singletary will be a solid play and is a low-end RB2 with some upside. Pierce’s role is a mystery; how much work will he get in this game? In a somewhat favorable matchup and a terrible bye week, Pierce enters into that low-end RB3 range. He would be a risky play, but the upside is there.
The Broncos receivers have a better matchup against the Texans in Week 13. The Texans have been solid, but it’s a different story in the last five weeks. They have allowed eight receivers over 60 yards in those five weeks. The Texans were a team that didn’t allow many receiving touchdowns, but they have allowed four in the last three weeks. Courtland Sutton is a solid WR3 this season. He has eight touchdowns and is on pace to get over 1000 yards. Sutton should be able to do well in this matchup. He sees six targets in most games and seems to have a nose for the red zone with Wilson. Sutton will enter the low-end WR2 value in Week 13. I’d love to say something positive about Jerry Jeudy, but he has been over ten fantasy points twice this season. He has only three targets in two of the last three games. He is a low-end WR4 in this matchup. Adam Trautman has been way outside the top 24 for most of the season.
For the Texans receivers, the Broncos are ranked as a top-ten unit against the position. They have not allowed receivers to go over 60 yards in five straight games. The Broncos also have kept receivers from scoring, with just two touchdowns in those five weeks. The Broncos secondary has stepped up significantly over the last month of the season. Tank Dell will play on Sunday, with two limited practices on Thursday and Friday. If Dell is banged up, I’d lower my expectations for him in this tough matchup. Dell has been on fire, but the last time the Texans had a tough matchup, Dell was just average. He played the Panthers and only put up 30 yards. Dell is a solid WR2 in Week 13. The same can be said for Nico Collins, but I trust him more since he isn’t coming into Sunday banged up. Collins enjoyed success the last three weeks, so this will be a good test for him. I trust the Texans passing game, so Collins should be a WR2 in Week 13. Dalton Schultz is out, so more targets will go their way.
Bob Woods has been decent as a WR5, and I think that is all he is right now. Noah Brown had a DNP on Friday, so I won’t be surprised if he misses another game. As I mentioned, Dalton Schultz is to miss Week 13. Brevin Jordan enters into the sleeper range in Week 13. Jordan was already seeing more snaps recently, so giving him the full-time workload could be big. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed a tight end to cover 40 yards in the last five weeks. As a mid-range TE2, Jordan has a good chance to shine on Sunday. As a big-bodied receiver, Xavier Hutchinson may see work in the tight end position.
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 p.m. @ Raymond James Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy Day
- What Vegas is saying – Line (TB -5.0) & Over/Under 36.5
Identifying the Game Script
We have the last divisional game of the weekend between the Panthers and the Bucs. The Bucs would beat the Panthers last time 30-24. The average of the last five games between these teams has been 48 points. The Panthers would come off another loss, as the offense looked horrible in that game. The Bucs would not be able to defeat the Colts on the road, as they would lose 27-20. The Panthers hope their new coaching staff can bring a spark to the team against a bad Bucs secondary. We’ll see if Byrce Young can get this passing game going in a good matchup, for the Bucs will likely rely on their backfield against one of the worst run defenses in the game. This game could be one-sided, as the Bucs could win this one easily.
Bryce Young has not been great over the last five weeks. He has regressed in each game since his bye week. Since week eight, Young has thrown three passing touchdowns and been over 200 passing yards once. The Bucs are a fantastic matchup in Week 13. They allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed better quarterbacks great fantasy outings, but average-to-poor quarterbacks did not live up to the matchup. Will Levis and Gardner Minshew both had not-so-great games. There is some hope that the firing of coaches can give some spark to the offense, but Young is still risky. Young doesn’t have much of a rushing floor and can barely throw 200 passing yards. Young is a low-end QB2; you must hope for the best in Week 13.
Baker Mayfield is coming off two not-so-great performances after a nice stretch of games. Mayfield is dealing with an ankle injury that made him questionable at the start of the week, but the coaching staff believes he will play on Sunday. Mayfield has a tough matchup as the Panthers rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. They have not allowed a quarterback to pass over 200 yards in the last six weeks. In that span, they have also only given up three passing touchdowns. The Panthers are a very tough matchup for a banged-up Mayfield. Part of the reason for the success has been how bad the Panthers are against the run. The Bucs don’t have the best run game, so Baker could do more here. I’d expect Mayfield to get another 20 fantasy points and finish as a high-end QB2 in Week 13.
For the Panthers backfield, we saw Chuba Hubbard pull away from Miles Sanders again after a 50/50 split in Week 11. Hubbard didn’t run well but scored a touchdown and saw five receptions for 47 yards. This will not be an easy matchup, as the Bucs rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have allowed three running backs to run over 60 rushing yards in the last five weeks. They were a team up until Week 12 that didn’t allow a rushing touchdown. Then they faced CMC, and he scored twice on them. Chuba should be a fine RB3 flex option in Week 13. As long as he sees more work on the field, he should be able to do enough. Jim Caldwell is supposed to have his hands more involved with the offense, which could be good for the running backs. Miles Sanders had a terrible 1.9 YPC last week and has done that twice in the previous five weeks. There is always that hope the Panthers just give the ball at Sanders since they paid him, but that’s a small hope. Sanders is a high-end RB4 in Week 13.
For the Bucs backfield, Rachaad White is enjoying a breakout season. Since week six after the Buc’s bye week, White has been RB5 on the season. He is averaging 80 all-purpose yards per game and is finally scoring some touchdowns. The Panthers allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a rusher over 60 rushing yards in the last three weeks. They also gave up four touchdowns in that span. They have allowed a total of 15 touchdowns on the season to running backs, which is a league-high. I’m thrilled for White in this matchup. He continues to handle most of the backfield and is heavily involved in the receiving game. White should be an RB1 in Week 13.
For the Panthers receivers, they have a terrific matchup in Week 13. The Bucs allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to receivers this season. In the last five weeks, the Bucs have allowed nine receivers over 60 receiving yards. They have given up plenty of touchdowns this season but only one in the previous three weeks. Adam Thielen is coming off a horrible game where he had just three targets for two yards. I’m expecting a correction for him in Week 13. I’d expect Thielen to return to at least seven targets in this game. He is a WR2 in Week 13. Jonathan Mingo could be an interesting sleeper in Week 13. The team may want to get their young players the ball more in favorable matchups. He is a high-end WR5 in this game. DJ Chark is outside the top 60, and Ian Thomas will start for the Panthers, which is not ideal for fantasy.
For the Bucs receivers, they have a tough matchup in Week 13. The Panthers allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to fantasy receivers. They have stopped opposing receivers from scoring with just one touchdown in the last five weeks. They have kept all receivers under 65 yards in that span and played some elite receivers. Mike Evans is hopefully up for the challenge, as he has been so good this season. He has averaged 75 yards over his entire career vs. the Panthers. Evans, this season, is averaging 15 fantasy points per game. Evans is to be a WR1 in this matchup.
Chris Godwin may miss this game with an injury, as he was downgraded to a DNP on Friday. If he plays, he would be nothing more than a WR4 since his production has been bad this season. If Godwin misses, expect Trey Palmer to see a bump on targets. Palmer has flashed at times this year, so more targets may put him in the WR5 conversation in Week 13. David Moore would be a dark horse sleeper if Godwin missed this game. For the tight ends, the Panthers also rank in the top ten against the position. They have allowed two tight ends with 45 yards in the last four weeks. Cade Otton has 40 yards in back-to-back weeks. He has stepped up in year two. He is a TE1 in Week 13 with the mega bye weeks.
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Rams
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAR -3.5) & Over/Under 40.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these teams faced off was back in the 2019 season. The Rams would win 20-13 on the road against the Browns. The Browns couldn’t do much on offense in week 12 and would lose to the red-hot Broncos. The Rams would destroy the Cardinals as the return of Kyren Williams would pave the way for a big outing. The Browns may be on their fourth-string quarterback in this game, but getting their tight ends involved would be important as the Rams have trouble defending the position. The Rams will have a tough time in the air, so they better continue using Williams to light up the ground and produce. I don’t think this game will be very high-scoring, and it could be the least-watched afternoon game.
Matthew Stafford is coming off his best game of the season with 31 fantasy points. Stafford has had one or fewer passing touchdowns in eight of ten games for most of the season. I’m betting Stafford hasn’t turned his season around in one game. The Cardinals were a good matchup, but the Browns were terrible in Week 13. The Browns allow the second few fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. In the last four games, the Browns have rebounded back to a tough matchup for quarterbacks. They have allowed just two passing touchdowns and kept opposing quarterbacks under 230 passing yards. They have been an overall tough defense, and hopefully, Myles Garrett can play in this game. After one game, I’m not changing my opinion on Stafford’s fantasy value. Stafford is still a mid-range QB2 in Week 13.
Joe Flacco will get the start in Week 13 as Dorian Thompson-Robinson is out due to his concussion. Flacco had some up-and-down starts with the Jets last season. Flacco is 38 years old and hasn’t been a full-time starter for years. Flacco may be the best option as a passer. The Rams have allowed big yardage with at least 230 passing yards to each of their last five opponents. The Rams don’t allow many passing touchdowns this season. They have allowed just three passing touchdowns in the previous two weeks. Flacco has a better team around him, but he has only been with the team for a week. We’ve seen that before, and it worked out for another quarterback. Flacco may be worth a shot in Superflex leagues to play in Week 13. He is a low-end QB2 in this matchup.
Jerome Ford took over when the Browns were in a negative game script last week. He played his most offensive snaps of the season. I expect this game to be closer, so Ford shouldn’t see a giant leap in snaps this week. The Rams are a top-ten unit against fantasy running backs. In the last five weeks, the Rams have allowed just one running back over 55 yards. They have only given up one rushing touchdown in the last four weeks. We’ve seen opposing running backs see receptions against the Rams but for minimal yardage. Ford should continue to see the better half of the work in the backfield. Ford’s carries are up and down this season, but he is the primary passing down back in the offense. He is a borderline RB2 in Week 13. Kareem Hunt has gone two games without a touchdown, and it’s notable for his fantasy impact. Hunt’s upside has been being able to score a touchdown, but if he isn’t doing that, then he becomes risky. Based on the crazy bye weeks, he is still a low-end RB3 in Week 13.
Kyren Williams returns to that RB1 level status for the Rams backfield after a monster Week 12 game. He did play the Cardinals. That was an easy matchup, but he finished with 200 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns have been an easier matchup than in the season’s first month. They have allowed five running backs over 50 yards in the last five weeks. They have given up four rushing touchdowns in the previous five weeks compared to just two in the first six weeks. Williams is to be this team’s offense, and they do well when he produces. I’d expect Williams to have a great game, but maybe not 39 fantasy points like in Week 12. He has a little more backup in Royce Freeman, but Williams still commands the touches. He should be an RB1 in Week 13. Freeman continues to have a solid role, with 77 yards in back-to-back weeks. I expect Freeman to see between eight and 12 carries in this game. he has been an efficient runner, so I expect a low-end RB3 that you can plug in this week.
For the Browns receivers, the Rams are a decent secondary this season. They have only allowed three receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed receivers to score with five receiving touchdowns in that span. Amari Cooper is questionable coming into this game. Based on reports, you should expect him to play Sunday. Cooper could see some downfield throws with Flacco at quarterback. Cooper was struggling with the rookie quarterback. He should be good for seven-plus targets in this game if he plays. Cooper should be a low-end WR2 in Week 13.
Elijah Moore could be interesting since we’ve seen what Moore can do with Flacco as his QB. Moore has had some of the biggest games of his career with Flacco in New York. In seven career games together, Moore has at least 40 yards in six of them. I like Moore as a WR4 in Week 13. Cedric Tillman has been the number two in snaps but has not produced in fantasy. The Rams allow the third most fantasy points per game to the tight ends. They have allowed a 50-yard tight end in two of the last three weeks. David Njoku has done well in these last six games, with seven-plus fantasy points in each. Njoku has been able to produce with every Browns quarterback this year. He is a TE1 in Week 13.
For the Rams receivers, the Browns allow the third most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed just three receivers over 65 yards in the last five weeks. They also have only given up three receiving touchdowns. Cooper Kupp has practiced in full but has not been good the last five weeks. He has been under ten fantasy points in the last five games. Whether it’s the injury or the offense, it’s hard to trust Kupp. His name holds big value, so I still value him as a mid-range WR2 in Week 13. Puka Nacua has been under ten fantasy points in four of the last six games. I’m not overly concerned since part of this bad play could be because of Stafford. I still rank him as a mid-range WR2. I think both receivers need to be in lineups since the Rams won’t always give Tyler Higbee two touchdowns in games.
Tutu Atwell did the best among the receivers in Week 12. Atwell also hasn’t done that well in the last month. He is a deep threat, more of a WR5 in Week 13. For the tight ends, the Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Tyler Higbee came out of nowhere and caught two touchdowns. I’m not expecting that to stick. Higbee was terrible for about two months, seeing minimal usage. Based on the crazy bye weeks, he is a mid-range TE2 at best.
San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 p.m. @ Lincoln Financial Field
- Weather – Another Rain game
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -3.0) & Over/Under 47.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time that these two teams played was in the NFC Championship game. As we know, the 49ers would lose Brock Purdy, and the Eagles would win this game. The 49ers would easily win on the road against the banged-up Seahawks. The Eagles would play in one of the year’s best games and win at home over the Bills. The 49ers have an excellent matchup with the Eagles lousy secondary that gives up tons of fantasy points. The Eagles will do what they have to move the ball and score despite this difficult matchup. I’m expecting two amazing offenses to thrive and give us another game that will come down to the end.
Brock Purdy is coming off a down fantasy despite the 49ers rolling over the Seahawks last week. This will happen with Purdy from time to time, with CMC stealing rushing touchdowns. Purdy had almost 300 yards in each game and three passing touchdowns in the prior two weeks. Purdy will have a chip on his shoulder against the Eagles. The Eagles are a favorable matchup, allowing quarterbacks the second most fantasy points per game. They have allowed four straight games with two-plus passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. In those four games, they allowed three 300-yard passing games. The Eagles are a team that Purdy can do some work as long as he can get some time in the pocket. I like Purdy to be needed in a potential high-scoring game between these two teams. Purdy has shown an upside in fantasy with his elite group surrounding him. Purdy is a QB1 in Week 13.
Jalen Hurts is Mr. Consistent when it comes to fantasy football. He has ten straight games over 20 fantasy points. While Hurts can, at times, throw like an elite passer, it’s his legs that get the job done. He has five rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks and six passing touchdowns. Hurts is a multi-threat quarterback who will have a great fantasy day. The 49ers allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. In the games they have lost, they have allowed 263 passing yards and almost two touchdowns per game. In games they won, the opposing quarterbacks averaged 210 passing yards and less than a touchdown per game. This game has a good chance to score high, and the Eagles win. I’m not concerned with Hurts since his rushing floor game picks up any issues with his passing game. Hurts should be a QB1 in Week 13.
For the 49ers backfield, we all know Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in fantasy. His worst game this year has been 12 fantasy points. I bring that up since CMC is going up against the toughest team against fantasy running backs. The Eagles have allowed just one running back over 60 yards this season. They haven’t given up a rushing touchdown in the last five weeks. For CMC’s odds, that should matter since he finds a way to be elite even in the toughest matchup. The Eagles gave up six receptions for 57 to James Cook last week. I expect CMC to be the target plenty in this matchup to give him space to make plays. I’m expecting a high-scoring game between these teams so that CMC will have a chance. He is an RB1 in Week 13.
For the Eagles backfield, D’Andre Swift has been fantastic for us in fantasy. He is running very well, but seeing more touchdowns and targets go his way would be nice. The 49ers are a big matchup as they allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed just one running back over 50 yards in the last five weeks. Unlike the Eagles, the 49ers have allowed two rushing touchdowns in that span. I like Swift a lot this season, but I don’t think his upside is there for Week 13. His lack of targets is concerning, which could cap his upside in a tough matchup. Swift is a solid RB2 in this matchup, but he doesn’t make RB1 status unless he can score. Kenny Gainwell does find ways to be involved, especially in two-minute offense plays. He is a desperate RB4 in Week 13. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gainwell Randomly scores or has five targets.
For the 49ers receivers, they have the best matchup of the weekend. The Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed eight receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. They have allowed three 100-yard receivers in that span. Brandon Aiyuk has scored in each of the previous three games. His yardage fluctuates all season, but Aiyuk has been a reliable fantasy option. He should do well against the Eagles secondary. He will be a WR 1 in Week 13. Deebo Samuel has also done well since the 49ers bye week. He continues to be used differently on the field and has scored two rushing touchdowns in three weeks. Samuel should do well in a rainy game and finish as a high-end WR2 in Week 13.
For the tight ends, the Eagles rank in the bottom ten against the position. They have allowed three touchdowns to a tight end in the last four weeks. The Eagles also gave up 40 yards in three of those four games. George Kittle is an elite option and should be a TE1. Kittle has boom/bust play to his game, but he has been on fire the last month. Kittle needs to be in lineups in Week 13.
For the Eagles receivers, the 49ers secondary is the weak spot of the defense. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns in the last five weeks. They have been better the last two weeks against receivers, but before that, they allowed three straight games of a 100-yard receiver. AJ Brown has cooled down after the Eagles bye week. He has just 45 yards in two big matchups with one touchdown. Teams have put their focus on stopping Brown from producing. I still consider Brown a low-end WR1 since his talent will eventually break out. Teams are telling the Eagles to beat them with DeVonta Smith, and they are. Smith has 206 yards and a touchdown in the last two weeks. He should continue to thrive, especially without Dallas Geodert playing in this game. He should be a WR1 in Week 13. No other receiver can be trusted as a top 60 option. Jake Stroll has not done anything as the starter with Dallas Geodert out.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers
Details of the Script
- SNF – 8:20 p.m. @ Lambeau Field
- Weather – Potential Snow Game
- What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -6.0) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Chiefs and Packers played was in the 2021 season. The Chiefs would win 13-7 over the Packers at home. The Chiefs would fall behind early but beat the Raiders on the road. The Packers would win a surprise game on Thanksgiving as they beat the division-leader Lions. Seeing a night snow game this Sunday would be fun, but that could limit the passing game. The Chiefs could take advantage of the Packers bad run defense in this game. Patrick Mahomes should still be able to keep the playing game going, even in a tough matchup. The Packers need to establish the run since that is the weak spot for the Chiefs. This game should be a fun game on Sunday that will be closer than many think.
Patrick Mahomes has been mediocre the last month of fantasy but is coming off a 24-point game in Week 12. He is not the same Mahomes we trust to put up elite fantasy numbers weekly. The Packers will be a tough matchup as they rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. Over the last five weeks, it was clear that elite fantasy quarterbacks can produce against the Packers. Those elite quarterbacks have produced at least 250 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in three of five games. Mahomes is a better home quarterback than on the road. He has a 14:4 touchdown to interception ratio in six home games compared to a 7:5 in five road games. Mahomes may not put up elite numbers, but he should be able to put up high QB1 numbers in Week 13.
Jordan Love has been playing very well in the last three weeks of games, with over 20 fantasy points in each game. He scored a season-high 32 fantasy points in Week 12 against a tough division foe. Love has been playing against easy opponents, but he was a quarterback with a 12:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first half of the season. The hope is that we see Love’s progress happening in season and that we see his talent flourish. Love is showing an upside that he wasn’t showing in the first half of the season. At home, I trust that Jordon Love will attempt to stay on par with the Chiefs offense. Love has the weapons to be successful despite the tough matchup against the Chiefs. Love is a low-end QB1 in Week 13.
For the Chiefs backfield, Isiah Pacheco showed that giving him the bulk of the offensive snaps will make him an elite fantasy option. Pacheco took advantage of Jerick McKinnon missing Week 12 as he put up over 20 fantasy points. The Packers are a favorable matchup for this backfield, ranking in the bottom ten. In the last three weeks, they have allowed four running backs over 60 yards and given up three rushing touchdowns. Pacheco should be able to see 12-16 carries in this game easily. The passing work could prop Pacheco to an elite fantasy week, but he is more of a borderline RB1 in this matchup. McKinnon would be an RB4 if he can suit up on Sunday night.
The Packers backfield could be looking at the bottom of the barrel in Week 13. Aaron Jones hasn’t practiced this week, so he is out. AJ Dillion had a limited practice on Thursday but is not 100%. The Chiefs have been a favorable matchup to backfields in the last month. They have allowed a 75 rusher in five straight games. They have also given up four rushing touchdowns in that span. Dillion has put up eight fantasy points in three straight weeks. If Dillion plays, he would get most of the early down work. Dillion would be a low-end RB2 in a matchup that is home for him. Patrick Taylor is the backup to Dillion, and he will likely see work in the offense as well. I don’t think I could play Taylor unless Dillion were to miss. He is outside the top 50 rushing backs. If Dillion misses the game, Taylor will jump to that RB3 range, with likely James Robinson playing as well.
The Chiefs receivers will have a tough matchup on the road. The Packers rank inside the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have been decent but allowed three 90-yard receivers in the last two weeks. Rashee Rice stands is the best receiver in this game. Rice is coming off his best game of the season, with 100 yards and a touchdown. Rice must continue to see a significant target share in the offense. If so, he’ll be able to finish as a high-end WR3. The rest of the pass catchers are hard to tough in a tough matchup. Marquez Valdez Scantling has a revenge game, so he may catch a big one downfield but still outside the top 60.
Justin Watson has a touchdown in back-to-back games. His role in the offense has been inconsistent, especially with targets. He could be a WR5 in this matchup. Of course, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney are not playable options. The Packers are a solid matchup for the tight ends in Week 13. They have allowed a touchdown in back-to-back games. They also have given up 40 yards in four of the last five games. Travis Kelce is a beast, so expect him to have a good fantasy day.
The Packers receivers have a tough matchup against the Chiefs secondary. They ranked in the top ten against fantasy receivers. They have allowed five receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed a touchdown in three of the previous four games. Christian Watson is coming off his best game of the season, with 90 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs have locked down outside receivers this year, and Watson will likely get locked down by L’Jarius Sneed. Watson is a high-end WR3 in this matchup. Romeo Doubs continues to prove that he doesn’t put up great fantasy points without a touchdown. He could be used in the slot more if Jayden Reed misses time in this game. He is more of a high-end WR4 who is touchdown-dependent.
Jayden Reed is questionable coming into this game but has been the most productive receiver all season. He has double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. He is being used as a runner at times as well. If he plays, he would be a high-end WR3 in this matchup. If he is out, look for Dontayvion Wicks to have a role as a WR5. For the tight ends, the Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position. They have not allowed a tight end over 30 yards in the last six games. Tucker Kraft caught a touchdown last week, but on two targets. He is more of a low-end TE2 in Week 13.