Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys

Details of the Script

• TNF – 8:15 p.m. @ AT&T Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -8.5) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time the Seahawks and the Cowboys faced was in the 2020 season. The Seahawks would win a shootout 38-31 over Dallas. The Seahawks had a tough loss on Thanksgiving over the 49ers. The Cowboys would take care of business over the Commanders at home on Thanksgiving. The Seahawks will attempt to get something going, as their offense was not good last week. They have a tough matchup against the Cowboys, who are good at everything. The critical piece is whether Geno Smith is healthier than the previous week. The Cowboys would continue to get Tony Pollard going, as Seattle has a poor run defense. The Cowboys are hard to stop right now. This could be a one-sided game very early on Thursday night.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott continues his hot streak in fantasy with four of the last five games over 30 fantasy points. He has three games in the span with four passing touchdowns. Prescott seems like he may have a tough matchup in Week 12. In the last five games, the Seahawks have allowed just one quarterback over 250 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Seattle’s run defense has allowed opposing offenses to run on them. This action has led passers to fewer passing attempts. That doesn’t seem to matter with Prescott, as he is producing at a high level through three-quarters of football. Prescott should be able to continue his elite play and finish for us as a QB1 in Week 13.

Geno Smith was not great on Thanksgiving; he finished with 180 yards and an interception. Smith, as we know, has not been great all season long. He has two games over 20 fantasy points this season. Smith is averaging 15 fantasy points per game. The Cowboys rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks in 2023. In the last five weeks, they have allowed two of five quarterbacks with two passing touchdowns. They have allowed just one quarterback in that span over 210 passing yards. The Cowboys lock down quarterbacks and have forced plenty of turnovers. Smith showed he struggles under pressure last week and will see similar pressure in week 13. Smith’s only saving grace would be if the Seahawks fall into garbage time. Smith is a mid-range QB2 in a six-team bye week.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard has rebounded with back-to-back solid games for the Cowboys backfield. The biggest thing is that Pollard is scoring touchdowns. Pollard has had two touchdowns over the last two weeks, the first since week one of the season. The matchup is fantastic for the backfield, as the Seahawks allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Seahawks have allowed 100-yard rushers in two of the last five games. Seattle doesn’t give up rushing yards to provide fantasy points to opposing running backs. It’s the touchdowns Seattle gives up, as they have allowed seven rushing touchdowns in the last five weeks. I’d look for Pollard to see the bulk of the workload. I’d expect Pollard to be able to score a touchdown or even two in a favorable matchup. Pollard is an RB1 in week 13. On a big bye week, Rico Dowdle has value as a flex option. We’ve seen him get two touchdowns over the last three weeks. Dowdle is a low-end RB3 in Week 13.

Ken Walker will likely miss another game for the Seattle backfield, as he has not practiced this week. Zach Charbonnet will get another start this season. Last week, Charbonnet was okay against a tough run defense in the 49ers. Unfortunately, he will go up against another elite run defense in the Cowboys. They rank in the top 10 against fantasy running backs. Only one running back in the last five weeks has gotten over 60 rushing yards. The Cowboys also don’t allow many rushing touchdowns, with five on the season. The Seattle offense needs to rebound, or we could see another poor outing on Thursday. Charbonnet seems to have the workhorse role without Walker on the field. He played over 80% of the offensive snaps, and backup DeeJay Dallas had three touches last week. Charbonnet should be able to do something similar to Week 12 and finish as a high-end RB3 in Week 13. Dallas is just outside my top 50 running backs.

Pass Catchers

For the Cowboys pass catchers, they have a slightly tougher matchup, as it seems that way on paper. They have allowed just three receivers over 60 receiving yards in the last five. Weeks. They have allowed four receiving touchdowns in that span as well. Seattle’s secondary may have improved, but they are not elite to stop the Cowboys passing offense. CeeDee Lamb has been on fire with almost 600 yards in the last five weeks. He has under 60 yards in back-to-back games but a touchdown in both. Lamb should be able to finish as a WR1 in Week 13. Brandin Cooks has been a solid flex option since the Cowboys hot streak started. He has three of five games over ten fantasy points. We’ve seen that Cooks has inconsistent game production. Cooks is a low-end WR3 flex option in Week 13.

For the rest of the Cowboys receivers, we’ve seen Jalen Tolbert and Michael Gallup fight back and forth for snaps as the third receiver. Neither one in the last two weeks has gone over six fantasy points. I’d keep both receivers outside the top 60. For the tight end position, Seattle has been a top-ten defense against the position. We’ve seen them give up good games to some elite tight ends but also give quieter production to tight ends like George Kittle. Jake Ferguson was having a bit of a breakout season but has been quiet the last two weeks. His snaps have slightly dropped, and it’s the first time he hasn’t seen at least four targets since week six of the season. We saw in week 12 that Ferguson is seeing fewer snaps in specific packages and could drop more with the return of Peyton Hendershot. Ferguson isn’t as confident of a play as he was a month ago but good enough to be a low-end TE1. He still has a red zone upside, which is excellent for his game.

For the Seattle pass catchers, all were terrible in fantasy in week 12. It could have been because of a banged-up Geno Smith or going against an overall good defense. Hopefully, Smith is returning to form because these receivers have a difficult matchup in week 13. The Cowboys allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed only three receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed four receiving touchdowns but none in the last two weeks. This leads me to DK Metcalf, who is coming off his worst yardage game since week one. Outside receivers have a more difficult time producing against the Cowboy’s secondary. Metcalf is the team’s WR1 in the offense, seeing nine-plus targets in games. I still rank Metcalf as a low-end WR2. He should have decent production, but I wouldn’t expect a blow-up game.

Tyler Lockett has been a very boom/bust type of receiver this season. Over the last six weeks, if he isn’t catching a touchdown, his fantasy finishes look bad. I’ll probably have Lockett as a borderline WR3 in this matchup just due to his inconsistency unless he can find more time in the slot this week. The slot is where the Cowboys seem to struggle defensively in the secondary. Jaxon Smith-Njigba plays the 11th most slot snaps in the league this season. I expect this team to be behind in this game, so JSN may see his name called on more. I have JSN as a high-end WR4 in a potentially sneaky good play in week 13. Seattle’s tight end position has not been trusted due to their three-man committee and should not be on radars in week 13, even on a big bye week.

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