Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins

Details of the Script

• MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ HardRock Stadium
• Weather – Clear Night
• What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -13.5) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last match between these two teams was during the 2022 season. The Titans would dominate the Dolphins 34-0 at home. The Titans are coming off a tough loss to a divisional opponent at home in overtime. The Dolphins beat down the Commanders in a blowout win last week. The Titans will have a tough matchup against the Dolphins in this game. The best thing they can do is get the run game going. The Dolphins will likely attack the Titans’ poor secondary with their elite receiving group. This should be a blowout game pretty early for the Dolphins.

Quarterbacks

Will Levis is still trying to find that spark in his game that he showed from the start of his first game. Since that game, he has just two games over ten fantasy points. He is dealing with rookie woes, but the offense needs talent. In the last five weeks, the Dolphins have allowed just one quarterback over 200 passing yards. In the same span, they have allowed seven passing touchdowns. The defense has stepped up, creating more pressure and forcing seven interceptions in the last five weeks. Levis could be in for another poor outing in this tough matchup. The hope is that the Dolphins pull ahead, forcing the Titans to throw the ball more. Levis is a high-end QB3.

	GP	Comp %	Comp	Att	Yds	TDs	Ru At	Ru Yds	Ru TD	Sacks	Int	6 PP TD	4 PP TD
Tua Tagovailoa	12	70.1%	23	33	288	2	2	3	0	1	1	22	18

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off another solid fantasy outing with 23 points last week. He has always been an up-and-down quarterback in fantasy. The matchup with the Titans is very good. In three of the last four weeks, they have allowed a quarterback to pass over 250 yards and two touchdowns. Tagovailoa has played much better at home than on the road. My only concern is if the run game does all the work in getting touchdowns, but the matchup in the second is too good to pass up. He should be a QB1 in week 14.

Running Backs

	GP	Y/A	Ru Att	Yds	TDs	FL	Rec	Tg	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	.5 PPR	1PPR
Derrick Henry	12	4.3	16.4	70.1	0.7	0.0	1.8	2.3	15.4	0.0	13.1	14.0	14.9
Tyjae Spears	12	5.0	5.5	27.4	0.1	0.0	2.8	3.8	16.0	0.0	4.8	6.2	7.6

For the Titans backfield, we saw some great production in week 13 from Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears. Henry was knocked out in the game, allowing Spears to see more work. The Dolphins have allowed just one running back over 60 rushing yards in the last five weeks. They also haven’t allowed a running back to score since week eight. Henry has been up and down this season but is coming off two great games. Henry should receive a full workload, as the Dolphins will have issues trying to tackle Henry. He should be a high-end RB2 in week 14. Spears will see some work in this game. I don’t think he’ll see 20 touches. He should see a handful of carries and a few targets. He should be an RB4 in week 14.

	GP	Y/A	Ru Att	Yds	TDs	FL	Rec	Tg	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	.5 PPR	1PPR
Raheem Mostert	12	5.1	13.5	69.0	1.2	0.1	1.8	2.3	13.8	0.2	16.1	17.1	18.0
De’Von Achane	6	9.5	9.3	89.0	1.2	0.2	2.2	2.7	16.8	0.3	19.3	20.3	21.6

For the Dolphins backfield, we will see more De’Von Achane taking work away from Raheem Mostert. The Titans seem to have stepped in the last month after being a defense team that could run on. They have not allowed a rusher over 60 yards in the previous four games. They also have allowed just one touchdown in those four games. We know the Dolphins running game when they were healthy was fantastic. Mostert should see the first crack at the workload. He has had four of the last six games under 12 fantasy points. Mostert should be solid and likely have a chance for a touchdown. He is a mid-range RB2. Achane came in last week and had 100 yards with two touchdowns. He is one touch from a 50-yard touchdown at any moment. Achane will get his opportunity in this game. He should be an RB1 in week 14.

Pass Catchers

For the Titans receivers, the Dolphins have allowed just one receiver over 60 yards in the last five weeks. The Titans’ only consistent receiver this season has been DeAndre Hopkins. He has been the only one seeing consistent targets in the offense and, at times, can see double-digit targets. It’s going to be tough for Hopkins to be able to produce with the Dolphins elite secondary. He is a low-end WR3 this week. I don’t feel comfortable playing with any other Titans receiver. Treylon Burks and the rest of the journeyman receivers have returned but haven’t proven anything yet. They are all outside the top 60.

For the tight ends, the Dolphins have been solid against the position. They have not allowed a touchdown or 45 yards to a tight end in the last five games. Chig Okonkwo has over 40 yards in back-to-back games. He has seen better production in recent weeks. I think the Dolphins will be ahead in this game, and it may force targets toward Okonkwo. He is a mismatch at the tight end position. 

For the Dolphins’ receivers, the Titans are a bottom-ten unit against the position. They have allowed five receivers over 90 yards in the last five weeks. The Titans have also given up six receiving touchdowns in that same span. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been a fantastic duo for the Dolphins this season. Hill, we know, is a WR1 in this matchup. He is averaging over 100 yards per game this season. Jaylen Waddle has been hot and cold this season. He has seen three straight games with eight targets. In a favorable matchup, Waddle should be able to produce this time. Waddle is a borderline WR1 in week 14. For the tight end position, the Titans are elite against the position, and Miami has no start-worthy player. 

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants

Details of the Script

• MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ Metlife Stadium
• Weather – Clear & Cold
• What Vegas is saying – Line (GB -6.0) & Over/Under 36.5

Identifying the Game Script

The Giants and the Packers last faced off during the 2022 season. The Giants won on the road in Green Bay 27-22. The Packers had a big win over the Chiefs in the last MNF. The Giants are coming off a bye week, but they are coming off back-to-back wins. The Packers will have options, as they can attack the Giants with either the run or the pass. The Giants have been bad against both in fantasy. It will be challenging for the Giants to throw on them, so expect them to lean on Saquon Barkley in this game. This game should be closer than most people think.

Quarterbacks

	GP	Comp %	Comp	Att	Yds	TDs	Ru At	Ru Yds	Ru TD	Sacks	Int	6 PP TD	4 PP TD
Jordan Love	12	61.27%	21	34	239	2	3	19	0	2	1	22	18

Jordan Love is coming off a career-changing game against the Chiefs. He has four straight games over 20 fantasy points. He has looked good throwing the ball in all phases of the game. The Giants against fantasy quarterbacks have been solid based on their opponents. They have allowed only two quarterbacks over 250 passing yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed only six passing in that span, and four were to one quarterback, Dak Prescott. It may not be that the secondary is elite, but how bad their run defense is this year. The Packers won’t have a great run offense unless Aaron Jones returns. The Packers may elect to continue throwing the ball to win games. Love is a borderline QB1 in week 14.

Tommy DeVito has played much better than any Giants quarterback in his four starts. DeVito has helped give value to the passing game with better play, but the Packers rank as a top-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen that the Packers have played great fantasy quarterbacks, and they were all able to succeed. Before that, they played Kenny Pickett and Brett Rypien, and they played poorly. DeVito isn’t a star, so I don’t expect him to be able to succeed that well. He could be a decent Superflex quarterback, but he has no QB1 potential. He should be a borderline QB2 in week 14.

Running Backs

For the Packers backfield, it seems Aaron Jones will return in this matchup. He has had limited practice all week. The Giants allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a 70-yard rusher in the last four games. If Jones returns, I would be cautious with playing him since he could reinjury himself. I expect eight to twelve touches for him. He would be a high-end RB4 due to his injury. AJ Dillon should see the bulk of the backfield and pound down the Giants’ run defense. Dillon has four straight games with eight fantasy points. DIllion should be the one they lean on to run down this defense. Dillion is a high-end RB3 in week 14.

	GP	Y/A	Ru Att	Yds	TDs	FL	Rec	Tg	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	.5 PPR	1PPR
Saquon Barkley	9	4.2	18.3	77.4	0.1	0.1	3.1	4.4	18.8	0.4	12.7	14.3	15.8

For the Giants backfield, we will look for Saquon Barkley to bounce back in week 14. The Packers rank as a bottom-ten team against fantasy running backs. In the last four weeks, they have given up four rushing touchdowns. The Packers have given up a 100-yard rusher in two of the previous four games. Barkley should be able to get 20-plus touches in this game to finish as a RB1. No one is messing with his carries, being a workhorse back.

Pass Catchers

For the Packers receivers, the Giants allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. The Giants have been better in the last five weeks, besides the week they played the Cowboys. The Packers have a solid receiving group despite not having Christian Watson in week 14. That leaves Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed as the top two receivers. Doubs is the red zone threat of this team. He has seven touchdowns this season. Doubs should receive an eight-plus target share in week 14. He is a low-end WR2 in this game. Reed is the speedy slot receiver who did not play well last week due to an injury. He should return to better production. He is used differently in the offense, especially in the run game. Reed is a high-end WR3.

One player who could step up is Dontayvion Wicks. Wicks has at least 40 yards in his last four games. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes with the most receiving yards in this game. He is a high-end WR5 in week 14. For the tight ends, the Giants allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to get to the position. Tucker Kraft has had some decent production in his two games. He is, at best, a low-end TE2. He needs a touchdown to have start-worthy value.

For the Giants receivers, the Packers allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed some decent yardage with four receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. The touchdowns have been minimal, with only two in that same span. It is hard to judge who stands out for the Giants receivers. Darius Slayton has been the most consistent at times for the group. He has 50 yards in two of four games with DeVito. He would be a WR5 in week 14.

I’m excited to see if rookie Jalin Hyatt can have a strong back half. The last time he played, Hyatt had a 100-yard game against the Patriots. He is also a WR5 in this game.

For the tight end position, the Packers rank in the bottom ten against the position. Daniel Bellinger has been below average as a starter. He has been under 40 yards in the last three games. He is, at best, a low-end TE2 who would need a touchdown to do well.

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