|Elite Starting Option
|Elite Starting Option
|Elite Starting Option
|Strong Starting Option
|High End QB 2
|Great for SF/Sleeper QB1
|Strong Starting Option
|Great Starting Option
|Low End TE 1
|Good Starting Option
|Mid/Low QB 2
|Decent/Sleeper for SuperFlex
|Good WR3/Strong Flex Option
|High End RB 3
|Good Starting Option/ Flex Play
|High End TE 2
|Decent Starting Option
|Risky Superflex Play/Sit
|Shakey Flex Option/Decent in WR3 Flex
|Mid/Low RB 3
|Flex Play/ 1B Option
|Low end TE 2
|Players inbetween options
|Desperate Flex Play/Deep Sleeper
|Back ups with upside/favorable matchup
|Touchdwon Dependent/Deep Sleeper
Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Cleveland Browns Stadium
- Weather – Rain Game
- What Vegas is saying – Line (CLE -3.0) & Over/Under 37.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Bears and the Browns haven’t played since the 2021 season. The Browns would win at home 26-6 to the Bears. The Bears are coming off an impressive win as they beat the Lions this time. The Browns would step up under Joe Flacco and defeat the Jaguars. Look for the Bears to rely on Justin Fields and the run game to move the ball, as the Browns run defense has been softer. The Browns will have a more difficult matchup since the Bears don’t have a clear weakness on defense. I expect this game to be lower-scoring on Sunday.
Justin Fields is coming off a solid 23 fantasy point outing. Since his return, he has at least 20 fantasy points in two of those three games. Fields’ rushing floor has been fantastic, with at least 50 rushing yards each game. Fields’ elite upside has been down since he only had three touchdowns in those last three games. The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to fantasy quarterbacks. They have been very good, but in the previous two weeks, they have allowed a passer with 250 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns have been a team that has allowed 25 rushing yards to an opposing quarterback five times. The Bears should continue to rely on Fields to make plays with his feet in this matchup. He won’t throw a lot, but you will look for him to score in Week 15. Fields is a low-end QB1 in Week 15.
Joe Flacco has returned from the dead and has been excellent in his two games this season. He has over 20 fantasy points in both and is helping the Browns win games. The Bears secondary has stepped up in the last five weeks. During that time, they have not allowed a quarterback over 240 passing yards and have held three quarterbacks to one touchdown or less. Flacco will have Amari Cooper back on the field, which should help his game. The Bears have been a sack machine in the last four weeks. That pressure could force Flacco to throw the ball bad balls in this game. Flacco has proven that he can provide solid fantasy points at quarterback. He is a mid-range QB2 in Week 15.
For the Bears backfield, we saw them use a three-person committee. This time, we saw D’Onta Foreman take the lead in the backfield, especially on the early downs. Roschon Johnson played the majority of the passing downs role in the offense. Khalil Herbert is still there, taking some work away from both. The Browns have been weak against fantasy running backs over the last five weeks. They have given up six rushing touchdowns and three backs over 60 yards in that span. We have to assume that Foreman will see first dibs on the backfield this week. He should see around 13 carries in this game and have a strong chance to score in Week 15. He is a low-end RB3. Roschon Johnson is hard to trust in lineups. Unless he can see targets, he’ll have a chance at being a low-end RB4. Khalil Herbert is an RB5 who would only be starting worthy in deep leagues. His usage has been minimal since his return in the last two weeks.
For the Browns backfield, the Bears have been a tough matchup. Since week five, the Bears have allowed three running backs over 60 yards and three rushing touchdowns. In those nine games, they played the Lions twice, who had produced the three 60-yard rushers and scored three rushing touchdowns. They have not allowed a rusher over 60 yards or a rushing touchdown in seven of the last nine games. Jerome Ford has been leading this backfield, especially as the passing down back. That part is essential since the Bears allow the most receiving yards to running backs this season. I expect Ford to see six to eight targets in this game and have his rushing work. Ford should be a mid-range RB2. Kareem Hunt has struggled most of the last four weeks. Touchdowns have been his saving grace since he has been an inefficient runner this season. If Hunt isn’t scoring, his fantasy day is terrible. He should be an RB4 in Week 15.
The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The yardage has been low, with only three receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed four receiving touchdowns in the previous two weeks. They haven’t really stopped any top-tier receiver from producing in the last five games. DJ Moore continues to see nine-plus targets in the previous four games. Moore with Fields has been fantastic again in fantasy football. Moore has 278 receiving yards and three total touchdowns in three games since Fields’ return. He should be able to see the targets and produce despite a tough matchup. Moore is a WR1 in Week 15.
There isn’t much of a shot you’d even consider Darnell Mooney in playoff matchups. He is way outside the top 60. For the tight ends, the Browns rank inside the top ten against the position. The Browns have locked down the tight end position outside of two games. In 11 of 13 games, the Browns have only allowed 15.5 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Cole Kmet had six receptions for the 66-yard game in Week 15. Kmet has seen 40 yards in four of the last six games. Kmet doesn’t show enough upside, but his talent makes him a borderline TE1.
For the Browns receivers, the Bears have been very good against the position. In the last five weeks, they have allowed just one receiver over 50 yards. Amari Cooper had a decent game last week, and it’s been nice to see him have a large target share. Cooper should be a fine flex in Week 15. He will see enough targets to produce in a tougher matchup. Cooper is a low-end WR3 in this game. Elijah Moore has seen 40 yards in five straight weeks. He continues to see a high target share per game, but the production hasn’t been there. As Cooper is on the field, Moore is a WR5 in Week 15.
For the tight ends, the Bears have allowed just one player over 30 yards in the last five weeks. They have allowed three receiving touchdowns in the previous five weeks but minimal yardage to opposing tight ends. David Njoku has recently been a little hot and cold in fantasy. He is playing with more upside than he was early in the season. He has eight or more targets in four of the last five games. Njoku’s involvement makes him worth a low-end TE1 in fantasy this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Lambeau Field
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (GB -3.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Bucs and Packers would last face off in the 2022 season. The Packers would win a close one, 14-12, on the road in Tampa. The Bucs could inch closer to the division with a win over the Falcons. After shocking the Chiefs, the Packers would then get shocked themselves and lose to the Giants on MNF. Look for the Bucs to use Rachaad White a lot against the Packers poor run defense. The Packers must jump-start their passing game again in a fantastic matchup with the Bucs Secondary. This game should provide many fantasy players on Sunday.
Baker Mayfield finally got out of his slump and finished with 24 fantasy points in Week 14. Mayfield has been solid for most of the season, but he did have a stretch of bad games. The Packers are a top 10 unit per game against fantasy quarterbacks. In three of the last five games, the Packers could keep opposing quarterbacks under 200 passing yards. They also were able to keep those quarterbacks to one touchdown or less. Mayfield isn’t a world-beater quarterback, so this will be tough. He hasn’t been the same quarterback as in the first half of the season. Mayfield should be a mid-range QB2. I don’t see much upside, but he should be able to offer a solid floor in Superflex leagues.
Jordan Love returned to earth last week after finishing with ten fantasy points. Love could not throw multiple touchdowns and had two turnovers in last week’s game. The Bucs are a fantastic matchup, as they allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Bucs have allowed over 250 passing yards in three of the last five weeks. They have only given four passing touchdowns in that span, as well. They also have played many below-average quarterbacks in those five weeks. Love shouldn’t worry about being productive in this game at home. Love has shown the ability to produce, but hopefully, he can have most of his weapons for the game. He is a QB1 in Week 15.
For the Bucs backfield, look for them to use Rachaad White as often as possible. White has been nothing short of amazing in fantasy. He has eight straight games over ten fantasy points. He isn’t just relying on his receptions to make his fantasy day since he has 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games. The matchup is favorable since the Packers rank in the bottom ten at stopping running backs. They give up touchdowns to opposing backs, with six in the last five weeks. The yardage has also been high, with six backs over 60 yards rushing. White is seeing most of the work in the offense, which should continue in this matchup. White is an RB1 in Week 15.
For the Packers backfield, there is a lot of mystery about who will play Sunday. Aaron Jones was limited again all week and is questionable for the game. AJ Dillon has a broken finger that makes his status questionable as well. The Bucs have had three running backs over 70 yards and five rushing touchdowns in the last five weeks. They used to be an elite-run defense but have softened recently. If Aaron Jones plays, he would still have a tough start. He would only be an RB3 in this matchup. Jones would make Dillon unstartable in this matchup. If Jones sits and Dillon plays, he would only be an RB3. If they both miss, a mix of Patrick Taylor, James Robinson, and Kenyan Drake would take the backfield. In that case, I would avoid this backfield during the playoffs.
The Bucs receivers will have a tough matchup with the Packers. They rank in the top ten against fantasy receivers. They have allowed four receivers over 65 receiving yards in the last five weeks. Mike Evans is coming off his worst game since week 4. Evans has been elite in fantasy this season with his big plays and touchdowns. He averages over eight targets per game this season. Evans should get back to his higher target share, but I don’t think Evans lights it up. It’s a tough matchup for the 31-year-old receiver. Evans should be a high-end WR2 who gives you a solid floor.
Chris Godwin should suit up on Sunday despite being questionable for this game. Godwin has a sneaky good matchup if he can see more work in the slot. The players who have done well against the Packers have been in the slot. Godwin plays in the slot half the time since Trey Palmer is the full-time slot receiver for the team. Godwin would be a low-end WR4 since it is hard to trust him. Trey Palmer could end up with a good game, but you wouldn’t want to consider it in a playoff game. For the tight ends, the Packers are a decent matchup. They have allowed four tight ends over 40 yards in the last five weeks. They also have given up three touchdowns in the previous three weeks. Cade Otton has been a decent tight end this year. He is a player that can get you six points most weeks. His targets limit his upside in the game. Otton is a low-end TE2 in Week 15.
For the Packers receivers, the Bucs allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. The Bucs have been way better as of late against receivers. They have allowed just one receiving touchdown in the last five weeks. Despite the low touchdowns, they gave up three 100-yard receivers in that time. Christian Watson will miss this game and is labeled doubtful. This will allow Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to see even more targets. Doubs is enjoying a nice season but has shown us he often doesn’t succeed in fantasy without a touchdown. Zero touchdowns in the last three weeks have kept him under ten fantasy points. Doubs is a WR4 in Week 15. Dontayvion Wicks is nice to mention here since he provides deep-threat ability. If he plays, he would have a low-end WR5 value. He would be sneaky good for deeper leagues.
Jayden Reed will benefit the most without Watson on the field. Reed will play more and see more targets. Reed has been very touchdown-dependent, but he is scoring way more than Doubs. He is constantly being used like a running back at times, too. Reed should be in that high-end WR3 range. For the tight ends, the Bucs are a bottom-ten team against the position. They have only allowed two tight ends over 30 yards in the last five weeks. Tucker Kraft had the game of his career in week 14 with 64 yards. The absence of Watson has given Kraft more targets, and it could happen again in Week 15. Kraft is a mid-range TE2 this week.
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Nissan Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (TEN -3.5) & Over/Under 36.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Texans and the Titans are playing in their first divisional game of 2023. Last time, the Texans would win 19-13 on the road over the Titans. In the previous five games, they have averaged 43.4 combined points. The Texans are coming off a bad loss to the Jets, as the offense couldn’t get anything going. The Titans are coming off a come-from-behind win on MNF over the Dolphins. The Texans must do something since CJ Stroud will not play on Sunday. The Titans secondary has been an easier matchup for offenses. The Titans will look to attack the Texans poor overall defense with their ground game. These teams have mediocre offenses and defenses, so sloppy football could lead to a higher-scoring game.
Davis Mills looks like he will be starting on Sunday. CJ Stroud is still in concussion protocol and is doubtful for this game. Mills was once the franchise quarterback for the Texans, but he couldn’t find a way to win games for them. Mills had his moments in fantasy, but it was never consistent. In three games vs. the Titans, he averaged 215 passing yards and almost two touchdowns. The Titans have allowed three of the last five quarterbacks to have over 260 passing yards and two touchdowns. They were able to hold the Dolphins to zero passing touchdowns. Mills may not even have great weapons, with Nico Collins listed as doubtful. Mills is probably a QB3 despite being a decent matchup. There are rumors that Case Keenum will end up starting, which would make him a borderline QB2.
Will Levis was impressive last week in fantasy despite a few turnovers in that game. Levis made some big plays downfield against a tough defense. This was his best game since his first game of the season. The Texans are a good matchup as they rank in the bottom ten against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed a 300-yard passing game in three of the last five games. They have allowed at least two touchdowns to an opposing quarterback in each of the last five games. Houston made Zach Wilson look like the second overall pick in the 2021 draft. Levis has shown some growth in the previous few weeks. I like Levis as a low-end QB2 with sleeper appeal in Superflex leagues.
For the Texans backfield, I would assume they lean on the run a bit more in this matchup. The Titans have regained their stout run defense with only one running back over 60 yards in the last five weeks. Devin Singletary was able to retake the early down work in Week 14. It’s still a mystery if the backfield stays that way in Week 15. We must assume that Singletary will be the primary running back on the field. Singletary’s value depends on how they use him. He should be successful if they give him the carries or targets in the passing game. I rank him as a low-end RB3. Dameon Pierce could easily see more early down work in the offense, but the Texans shouldn’t do that. Peirce is a low end RB4.
We saw Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears having great games in Week 14. Henry did not run that well but was able to get two touchdowns. Spears caught six balls for 89 yards. The Texans have been a much better run defense in the last five weeks. They have only allowed one running back over 60 yards and have given up one rushing touchdown in the previous five weeks. Henry has a great history against the Texans, averaging 100 yards and a touchdown per game. We’ll have to see if Henry can continue dominating the Texans or if times have changed. I’m not buying into Henry to be elite, but he should be very good. Henry is a high-end RB2 in Week 15. Tyjae Spears’ production is not safe. He has gotten over ten fantasy points in the last two weeks without scoring a touchdown. If Spears can see the targets again, he could end up with a good game, but he has only gotten over 40 receiving yards just three times this year. He would be a high-end RB4. He has an upside, but the floor is not there.
For the Texans receivers, the Titans are a favorable matchup. They rank in the bottom ten in the league against fantasy receivers. The Titans have allowed five 100-yard receivers in the last five weeks. They also have given up five receiving touchdowns. The Texans may be without Nico Collins and, possibly, Noah Brown. If Collins plays, he would be a WR2 in this game, but it’s unlikely he does. If Noah Brown plays and Collins sits, Brown would be a low-end WR3. Brown is getting the targets but hasn’t caught one in two games. If Collins and Brown were out, we would still have a trio of Bob Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson. If I were to take a shot on one of them, it would be Hutchinson. He fits the big-bodied receiver type that the Titans have struggled to cover. They would be all around the WR5 range., and Xavier Hutchinson if Collins and Brown were out. If I were to take a shot on one of them, it would be Hutchinson. He fits the big-bodied receiver-style that the Titans have struggled to cover. They would be all around the WR5 range.
For the tight ends, the Titans are the most difficult matchup of the weekend. They allow the fewest fantasy points per game to a tight end. They have not allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end and have only allowed three to have over 40 yards. Dalton Schultz returns this week after missing the last two weeks. It would be interesting to see if the Texans force feed Schultz the ball anyway. Schultz has done well when the Texans are short on receivers this year. I’d still have to rank Schultz as a TE1 and place him in starting lineups. He should see a large target share in Week 15.
For the Titans receivers, the Texans have been a better matchup for the position. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns in the last five games. They also have allowed seven receivers over 70 yards in the same five weeks. DeAndre Hopkins has three of his last four games over ten fantasy points. Hopkins should be able to see close to ten targets in this matchup. Hopkins is a mid-range WR2 in Week 15. In the fantasy playoffs, it’s hard to trust any of the Titans receivers to have a great week. Treylon Burks is getting his playing time back, but there is no way to put him in lineups.
For the tight ends, the Texans rank in the bottom ten this season against the position. The Texans have allowed four tight ends over 40 receiving yards in the last five weeks. The big thing is that they haven’t given up a touchdown in that time. Chig Okonkwo has been more consistent in fantasy, with four receptions for 40 yards in the last three weeks. He should be able to continue doing that as long as rookie Josh Whyle is not on the field. He is a mid-range TE2 in Week 15.
New York Jets vs the Miami Dolphins
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Hardrock Stadium
- Weather – Thunderstorms
- What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -8.5) & Over/Under 36.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time that the Jets and Dolphins played was on Black Friday. The Dolphins would win easily as the Jets couldn’t figure out their quarterback issues. The Jets are coming off a nice week over the Texans at home. The Dolphins would lose in the final moments in a shocking loss to the Titans. Look for the Jets to get the ball to their stars to do well on offense and fantasy. The passing game is the Dolphins weakness. The Dolphins run the same formula as in running the ball and getting the ball to Tyreek Hill as much as possible. I don’t think this game will be high scoring at all.
Zach Wilson is the starting quarterback and played his best game this season in Week 14. He threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins are an up-and-down secondary this season. In the last five weeks, we’ve seen two rookie quarterbacks throw for 270 passing yards. The other three quarterbacks are good fantasy quarterbacks who all finished under 200 passing yards. The Dolphins continued to cause turnovers and create pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Wilson hasn’t done well against the Dolphins in his career. It was nice to see Wilson do well last week, but he is still hard to trust in fantasy. He is a QB3 in this matchup but could have some sleeper appeal in Superflex leagues as a QB2.
Tua Tagovailoa continues this boom-or-bust fantasy performance this season. If we look at his trend, he has gone back and forth with good and bad games. This week would be a good game for Tua. The matchup is tough since the Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have kept four quarterbacks under 250 passing yards in the last five weeks. Outside of Josh Allen’s three touchdown games, they have only given up three touchdowns to the other four quarterbacks. Tua has been dealing with turnovers, with six in the last four weeks. He didn’t do well the last time he played the Jets. Tua does play much better at home, as he averages two touchdowns per game. He is a borderline QB1 in Week 15.
Breece Hall put up an elite fantasy performance for the Jets’ backfield with 22 points. Hall has not been a great runner this season, but his receiving work makes up for that. Last week, he had eight receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. He has more receiving yards than rushing yards in the previous eight games. The Dolphins have been great against fantasy running backs this season. They have allowed just one rusher over 60 yards in the last five weeks. They did well, not allowing a rushing touchdown until Derrick Henry had two last week. Hall needs to continue seeing seven-plus targets to make his fantasy day. We saw the Dolphins give up 86 yards to Tyjae Spears the previous week. Hall should be a borderline RB1 in Week 15. Dalvin Cook is an RB5 in Week 15 at best. He isn’t worth starting in most formats.
For the Dolphins backfield, Rasheem Mostert continues to lead this team despite the return of De’Von Achane. Mostert has run for 80 yards in three of the last four games. His receiving value has dropped, but he continues to get touchdowns with 18 on the season. The Jets defense ranks as a bottom-ten defense against fantasy running backs. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in four of the last five games. They haven’t given up too many touchdowns, but last time, the Dolphins were able to run in two. Mostert should continue to lead this team, and he’ll have prime opportunities to score a touchdown in Week 15. Mostert should be a high-end RB2. De’Von Achane is dealing with a toe injury and is questionable for this game. Achane had a down week in Week 14 but should be able to bounce back in fantasy. If he plays, he will be a high-end RB3 with a big upside. If he misses, then Jeff Wilson would jump back into RB4 range.
For the Jets receivers, the Dolphins have been pretty good against fantasy receivers this season. They have only allowed three receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks. Garrett Wilson finished with a good game last time with 44 yards and a touchdown. Wilson showed that he could be a reliable fantasy option with Zach Wilson. He is seeing eight-plus targets for most weeks and should see that on Sunday. Wilson is a low-end WR2 in Week 15. It’s hard to trust any other receiver on the Jets in the fantasy playoffs. For the tight ends, the Dolphins have been better against the position. They have only allowed two tight ends over 40 yards and zero touchdowns. Tyler Conklin plays better with Wilson on the field; he had four receptions for 57 yards last week. Last time, he had 33 yards against the Dolphins. Conklin is a low-end TE2; you won’t be mad about his production.
For the Dolphins receivers, they have the toughest matchup of the weekend. The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. That didn’t seem to matter last time, as both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had 100 yards. The Jets have shut down plenty of receivers besides those in their division. Hill is dealing with that ankle injury and has not practiced all week. I would have to assume that he plays and rank him as a WR1 in fantasy. Waddle is a low-end WR2 at the moment, but if Hill misses, then he would jump to a high-end WR2. I think no Hill will hurt Waddle in general, but he’ll see more targets. Cedrick Wilson will take his spot in the lineup if Hill misses, but it’s hard to consider him an option in fantasy. The Dolphins don’t have a fantasy tight end that could even start in deep leagues.
Kansas City Cheifs vs New England Patriots
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Gillette Stadium
- Weather – Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -8.0) & Over/Under 37.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Chiefs and the Patriots haven’t played each other since the 2020 season. The Chiefs would win easily at home, 26-10, over the Patriots. Kansas City is coming off a heated loss to the Bills. The Patriots would surprise and beat the Steelers as the offense played decent for once. Look for the Chiefs to continue using their star players to win this game. The Patriots don’t have a real weakness on defense, but the Chiefs have dealt with more brutal defenses this year. The Patriots should look to lean on Zeke Elliott, as the Chiefs run defense has been terrible over the last month. This game could either be close to the end or get out of hand early. It will all depend on how the Patriots want to play defense.
Patrick Mahomes has been under 20 fantasy points in four of the last six games. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in the previous six games has been 8:7. The Patriots have ranked in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have kept four of the last five quarterbacks under 220 passing yards. They have only given up three passing touchdowns in the previous four weeks. Mahomes doesn’t feel like the auto-start he used to be in fantasy. I don’t think it would be wild to sit him in a 1 QB if you have better options. Mahomes will eventually bounce back, which could happen in this game. Mahomes should be a low-end QB1.
Bailey Zappe played well last week with 240 yards and three touchdowns in a win on TNF. The Chiefs have allowed three straight games of 240 passing yards to quarterbacks. They have given up just six touchdowns in the last five games. I’m not sure I’d want to trust Zappe off of one game. The Chiefs play worst on the road, but Zappe can’t be in lineups unless you are desperate in Superflex leagues. He would be a QB3 in Week 15. He’ll need to prove it again to be considered as a start.
In the Chiefs backfield, Isiah Pacheco will miss another week due to his shoulder injury. That would leave Jerick Mckinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to lead the backfield. The Patriots rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have only allowed two running backs over 60 rushing yards in the last seven weeks. Despite playing some good running backs, they haven’t given up a rushing touchdown in the previous three weeks. Last week, McKinnon had the better game thanks to a rushing touchdown. Mckinnon only had seven touches, and three were in the passing game. If McKinnon doesn’t see five-plus targets, his value can only be that of an RB4. CEH ran the ball 11 times but only managed 39 yards. In the matchup where the Chiefs should be ahead easily, CEH could see more work on the ground. CEH is a mid-range RB3 in Week 15.
For the Patriots backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson is going to miss another game. That would be Zeke Elliott back in the driver’s seat. Elliott played well last week, as he finished with 23 fantasy points. It wasn’t his rushing since he ran terribly on 22 carries, but his receiving game. He had seven receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs have allowed a 70-yard rusher in four of the last five games. They also allow receiving production to running backs, as James Cook had 80 yards last week. Elliott should see most of the backfield work since no one else is earning touches. Elliot should see 18-plus carries and hopefully see the same targets again. I have Elliott as a high-end RB2 in Week 15.
For the Chiefs pass catchers, the Patriots have only given up four receivers over 60 yards. They have allowed plenty of 40 or 50-yard receivers in that span. The Chiefs sole receiver worth playing is Rashee Rice. Rice has nine-plus targets in three straight games, and it shows as he has double-digit fantasy points in those games. He should continue to be the guy outside of Travis Kelce in the offense. Rice is a low-end WR2 in Week 15. None of the other Chiefs receivers are worth playing at this point of the season. For the tight ends, the Patriots allow the third-fewest points per game. They haven’t allowed a touchdown since week six and have kept opposing tight ends to a minimum for the most part. Travis Kelce will be a TE1 despite the tough matchup.
For the Patriots receivers, the Chiefs have allowed six receivers over 70 yards in the last five weeks. They shut down the Bills receivers last week, but the Chiefs can be beaten for some yardage. Demario Douglas returns to the lineup in Week 15. He was doing well prior to his injury, with 50 yards in five of his last six games. Douglas should return a WR4 value in this offense. He was seeing six-plus targets as one of the starters. It’s hard to trust any other receiver on this team because they have been so bad. This is a revenge game for Juju Smith-Shuster against the Chiefs. I still wouldn’t start him despite the 70-yard game last week. For the tight ends, the Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Since week six, they have not allowed a tight end over 40 yards. They also have only allowed two touchdowns in that span. Hunter Henry had a big game with 40 yards and two touchdowns. I can’t expect Henry to score every week. He only does well when he scores a touchdown. The receivers are getting healthy, so Henrys should fall in the target order in Week 15. He is a low-end TE2.
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Caesars Superdome
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (NO -5.5) & Over/Under 39.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Giants and Saints faced off was in the 2021 season. The Giants would win an overtime game on the road over the Saints. The Giants are coming off a three-game winning streak after beating the Packers on MNF. The Saints pulled off an easy win over the Panthers. Look for the Giants to use their run game and, hopefully, Darren Waller to beat the Saints, as that is their weak spot-on defense. The Giants have been terrible in the secondary for the Saints, and the opposing passing game has done well. We could see some fantastic potential from this game on Sunday.
Tommy Devito has three games over 17 fantasy points in the last four weeks. He has seven touchdowns in the last four games with only two turnovers. He has been playing solid football with a lackluster receiving group. The Saints rank as a top-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed just one quarterback over the last five weeks to pass over 230 yards. DeVito dealt with a tough matchup last week and did enough to get 18 points. If DeVito can continue showing off that rushing upside, he may have a shot at playing in Superflex leagues. Despite the great story, he is still a QB3 in Week 15.
Derek Carr has been terrible in the last four games. Granted, he has every injury under the sun, but still. He has not gone over 15 fantasy points since week nine. The Giants have allowed two quarterbacks to pass over 220 yards in the last five games. They have only given up two passing touchdowns in the previous four weeks. They have done well outside the big game they allowed in Week 12. Carr’s availability on the field is an issue in any game. He has left early in two of the last four games. Carr is a borderline QB2 in this matchup. He is tough to trust in an important matchup.
For the Giants backfield, it is all about Saquon Barkley. Barkley handles most of the touches, but his fantasy numbers have been up and down. The Saints have not been good against the run, as they have allowed five running backs over 60 rushing yards. They do give up very little in the receiving game and touchdowns. Barkley must see at least 14 carries to get to double-digit fantasy points. The Giants should lean on Barkley to help move the offense and finish as a low-end RB1 in Week 15.
For the Saints backfield, Alvin Kamara continues to steal the show with nine of ten games with ten plus fantasy points. The Giants are a bottom-ten run defense per game to fantasy running backs. They have allowed four running backs over 70 rushing yards in the last five games. This season, they have allowed a running back to beat them in the receiving game since that is where Kamara’s specialty kicks in. Kamara averages seven targets per game, 95 all-purpose yards, and almost a touchdown. Kamara should be fed the rock in a good matchup this week. He will be an RB1 in Week 15.
For the Giants receivers, they have a tough matchup against the Saints. The Saints allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to fantasy receivers. They have allowed four receivers over 60 yards but only one touchdown in the last five games. None of the Giant’s receivers have been consistent in fantasy this season. One week, it’s Darius Slayton; another week, it’s Jalin Hyatt; and last week, it was WanDale Robinson. Players in the slot have done well against the Saints, so Robinson could make it another week with some fantasy value. At best, he would be a WR5, but no one else is in the top 60 for Week 15.
For the tight ends, the Saints allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. Darren Waller may come back this week, and if he does, you have to throw him out there. Unless you have one of the top seven tight ends, you should take the shot with Waller. He was the whole offense before he went down with an injury. He would probably be a borderline TE1 in Week 15. If Waller is out, Daniel Bellinger has some sleeper appeal but only as a low-end TE2.
For the Saints receivers, the Giants secondary is a good matchup. They allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have kept receiving groups under 50 yards in four of the last five weeks. Chris Olave has not practiced this week due to an ankle injury. It’s unclear if he will play in Week 15. If he does, you have to throw him out there in lineups. He has been a beast with 100 yards in the last two weeks. He would be a borderline WR1. Rashid Shaheed is returning to the field after missing the previous few games. We haven’t seen him as the WR2 for the team since Michael Thomas went down. Shaheed would be in that WR5 spot if Olave plays but will jump to a high-end WR4 in Week 15 if Olave misses.
The Giants allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed 50 receiving yards to a tight end in two of the last three games. Taysom Hill looks to return in this matchup, as he missed last week. If he returns, Hill jumps to a borderline TE1 due to his ability on the field. If Hill misses, then Juwan Johnson would be the TE1 for the team. Johnson has been unproductive and is likely outside the top 24 tight ends.
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 p.m. @ Bank of America Stadium
- Weather – A lot of Rain
- What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -3.0) & Over/Under 33.5
Identifying the Game Script
We get the second of two games that the Falcons and Panthers play. Last time, the Falcons would win at home in big fashion, 24-10, over the Panthers. The Falcons are coming off another loss to the Bucs last week. The Panthers would lose again due to their poor offense. Look for the Falcons to run the ball against the Panthers terrible run defense. The Panthers need to get some rhythm on offense with their rookie quarterback. This game looks to be very low-scoring with few fantasy-relevant players.
Desmond Ridder is coming off a big game in Week 14, finishing with 24 points. Ridder gets to go up against the Panthers, who allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. Last time, Ridder finished with 115 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw over 205 passing yards since week eight. In six away games, Ridder averaged less than 200 passing yards and only threw two touchdowns. Riddler hasn’t proven that he can be used in a playoff fantasy game. He is a QB3 in Week 15.
Bryce Young has been under ten fantasy points in five straight games. Young has not been start-worthy all season. The Falcons rank in the bottom ten against quarterbacks, but Young also had a nice matchup last week and failed. Young is a QB3 and not worth playing in any playoff game this year.
For the Falcons backfield, Bijan Robinson remains the primary running back. Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson have been splitting the backup job now. The Panthers allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed four running backs over 60 yards in the last five games. The Panthers also allowed opposing backs to score with six in the previous five weeks. Robinson should be featured heavily in this game with 15-plus carries and his receiving work. Robinson should shine in the first round of the playoffs. He is a RB1 in Week 15. One of the two backups will likely be successful, but which one is the question? They have seen between seven and ten carries over the last few weeks. I’ll give Allgeier RB4 value with Patterson as an RB5.
For the Panthers backfield, they have leaned on the running backs. Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders have combined for over 30 carries in the last two weeks since the firing of the head coach. Hubbard was more of the lead back with over 20 carries in back-to-back games. The Falcons allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They are the only team in the league that has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in two of the last five games. Hubbard should see the majority of the work in the offense, but he’ll likely need to score or see receiving work to finish over ten fantasy points. Hubbard is a high-end RB3. Miles Sanders has mostly been an early-down runner but has been ineffective in fantasy. He is a low-end RB4 in Week 15.
For the Falcons receivers, the Panthers rank in the top ten against the position. Drake London is coming off a monster game with 172 receiving yards in Week 14. The Panthers have only allowed one receiver in the last five weeks over 60 yards. London on the road has been horrible, primarily due to his quarterback. London is averaging 35 yards in six road games this year. I don’t want to trust London as anything more than a WR4 in Week 15. He scares me in this matchup.
For the tight ends, the Panthers also rank in the top 10 against the position. They have not allowed a tight end over 45 yards since week six. Last time, Kyle Pitts would finish with 44 yards against the Panthers. Pitts is coming off back-to-back 50-yard games, but he can be risky on the road. He has averaged 34 yards and zero touchdowns in six road games. Pitts would only be a mid-range TE2 in Week 15.
For the Panthers receivers, the Falcons allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. In the last five games, they have allowed just two receivers over 60 yards and a touchdown. Adam Thielen bounced back with 74 yards but has fallen off in fantasy. Jonathan Mingo was disappointing after coming off a few strong games. At best, Thielen is a low-end WR3 and should see plenty of targets. Mingo is a WR5 in Week 15. The tight-end position has been non-existent for the Panthers in 2023.