New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Details of the Script

• TNF – 8:15 p.m. @ SoFi Stadium
• Weather – Indoors 🙂
• What Vegas is saying – Line (LAR -4.5) & Over/Under 44.5

Identifying the Game Script

It’s week two of the fantasy playoffs! This week starts with the Saints and the Rams. They last played during the 2022 season, as the Saints would win 27-20 over the Rams. The Saints are coming off a strong win over the Giants. The Rams would take care of business against the Commanders. The Saints need to continue with their success last week in the air. They should try to get the ball to Alvin Kamara and their tight ends to be successful. The Rams will have to go against a tough matchup with the Saints. They need to take advantage of the tight-end matchup, as the Saints can’t seem to stop the position. This game looks to be more defensive and should be a lower-scoring game.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr put up a 20-point fantasy week for the first time since week nine. Carr hasn’t been start-worthy in over a month but came out and threw for three touchdowns. Carr hadn’t thrown three touchdowns this season until Week 15. The Rams are a bottom-ten defense against fantasy quarterbacks. In the last three weeks, the Rams’ secondary has struggled. They have allowed eight passing touchdowns in the previous three games. Carr should look to take advantage of the Rams defense in a short week, but it is a road game. Carr has struggled on the road, averaging less than a touchdown per game in seven games. Carr should hopefully get Chris Olave back in this game to improve his trust level in lineups. Carr is a mid-range QB2 in Week 16. 

Matthew Stafford has been lighting it up over the last four weeks. Stafford has woken up since Kyren Williams returned in the run game. He was over 20 fantasy points in each of the previous four games. The Saints will be a tough matchup as they rank in the top ten against fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed four of the last five quarterbacks to pass under 220 yards. They also have allowed only four passing touchdowns during that span. Stafford has been too good to sit since he has the weapons to produce in this game. I expect Stafford to be able to throw over 250 yards and score a few touchdowns. Stafford isn’t a safe play because of the matchup, but it’s hard to see someone who has been on fire. He is a high-end QB2 in Week 16.

Running Backs

For the Saints backfield, we are looking for Alvin Kamara to stay consistent in fantasy this week. He has double-digit fantasy points in ten of his 11 games this season. The Rams will be tough as they allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game. The Rams have not allowed a rushing touchdown in the last five games. They also haven’t allowed a running back over 55 yards in that span. Kamara isn’t playing a high snap count like he was in 2022. He has been averaging 55% of the snaps in recent weeks. This hasn’t taken away from his production. He continues with 13 carries and five targets per game. The Rams haven’t given up that much in the receiving game to backs, but Kamara should be fine. He has proven he is a big part of the offense, especially in the receiving game. He should be fine as a low-end RB1 in Week 16.

Kyren Williams can’t be stopped in fantasy for the Rams backfield. Since his return, he has had three of the last four games over 100 rushing yards. He isn’t being overly efficient and only scoring touchdowns. He can pick up yardage and be productive in fantasy. Williams looks like the real deal as he is averaging five fantasy points more per game with fewer touchdowns compared to in the early part of the season when he was scoring every game. The Saints are a tough matchup as they rank in the top ten against fantasy running backs. They have lightened up in recent weeks as they have allowed three running backs over 70 yards in the last four weeks. Williams shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup, as his usage is like a workhorse back. I’d expect him to take on a full role in the offense and finish as an RB1 in Week 16.

Pass Catchers

New Orleans

For the Saints receivers, the Rams have been a team that the position can produce against. In the last five games, they have given up seven receiving touchdowns. They also allowed an 80-yard receiver in the previous five weeks. Chris Olave is slated to return this week after missing the first round of the playoffs. Olave was coming off five straight games over ten fantasy points. He was finding success without many weapons around him. He will likely see eight targets if he plays and finishes as a high-end WR2 in Week 16. After missing the last two weeks, Rashid Shaheed returned to the field in Week 15. The Saints may have eased him back on the field since we thought he would have a more significant role in that game. Shaheed goes to that low-end WR4 status with upside since he only needs one play for a big gain. He would need more targets to be fully trusted in lineups.

The Rams will be a very favorable matchup on Thursday for the tight ends. They allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Rams have allowed opposing tight ends in four of the last five games to produce over 45 yards. It’s tough to judge which Saints tight end can produce. Taysom Hill is that hybrid tight end, but he has just one game over eight fantasy points in the last five weeks. Hill isn’t a consistent player, but his upside is nuts. He is a mid-range TE2. Juwan Johnson continues to see minimum targets, but he caught a touchdown last week. Even in this favorable matchup, I’d leave Johnson outside the top 24 since his low target share. This could be another Jimmy Graham touchdown on TNF.

Los Angeles

The Rams receivers will have a challenging task against the Saints secondary. The Saints allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed just one receiving touchdown in the last six weeks. The Rams have allowed a few receivers over 60 yards in the last five weeks, but it’s mostly been to the slot receiver. It will depend on who they throw in the slot for the Rams since it seems to be a mixed crowd with all the receivers. Cooper Kupp is coming off back-to-back 100 yards and a touchdown for the first time since week six. Kupp has been playing better and looks healthier than he did in the middle of the season. Kupp should see his targets and be decent in this game. He would be a borderline WR1 in Week 16. 

Puka Nacua continues to be solid despite Kupp on the field. He isn’t as consistent but shows off big boom weeks and decent floors. Nacua averages eight targets per game, so his volume in this matchup should be safe. It will depend on who plays in the slot more, but Nacua should finish as a high-end WR2. Tutu Atwell is returning, but Demarcus Robinson has risen to a bigger role in this offense. They may split time now, but Robinson could still provide low-end WR5 value.

For the tight ends, the Saints are favorable as they allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to the position. They have allowed two tight ends to finish over the last five weeks with over 130 receiving yards. Tyler Higbee returned to action in Week 15, but it was of minimal value. Unless Higbee scores, I don’t see his value as any more than a low-end TE2 in Week 16. Davis Allen is a name for dynasty owners to pick up and stash, as Higbee could be a cut candidate in 2024.

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