Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 9:30 am @ Wembley Stadium (LONDON)
• Weather – Cloudy
• What Vegas is saying – Line (JAX -3.0) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script 

The last time these teams played each other was back in 2021. The Falcons would win on the road in Jacksonville 21-14. We have the first international game of the year! The Jaguars are 4-5 over nine career games in London. Last year, the three London games averaged 46.66 total points. The Falcons’ strong start faded in week three as they lost to the Lions. The Jaguars are falling apart after a big loss to the Houston Texans. The Falcons are looking to rebound as they have a shot for the division this year. The Jaguars are just looking to stop the sloppy play on the field as they try to reboot overseas.

Quarterbacks

Desmond Ridder returned to earth in week three after a strong week two performance. Ridder continues to be hard to trust since his passing talent is mediocre. He isn’t running enough to give him a safe floor play. The Jaguars have been poor vs. fantasy quarterbacks this year. They just allowed rookie CJ Stroud to have a fantastic game in week three. We know who Ridder is; he isn’t a reliable fantasy asset to put into lineups. Ridder is a sit and QB3 in this week’s matchup. 

Trevor Lawerence has been a disappointment in 2023. Many believe Lawrence was ready to take the next steps to join the elite quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy. Lawrence is only averaging 245 passing yards and one touchdown over three games. Lawrence is heading to London, where he hasn’t fared well. He has averaged 187 passing yards with a 1:1.5 touchdown to interception ratio. The Falcon’s defense isn’t as bad as many continue to make it be. Outside of Jordan Love’s very efficient three-touchdown game, they have held fantasy quarterback this year. Lawrence isn’t the only one at fault for the offense, as his receivers continue to drop passes, especially in week three. Lawrence is considered a borderline QB1 at best for week four. 

Running Backs

We continue to see the separation between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, as this week, we saw a 70/30 split on the offensive plays. Unfortunately, neither one produced all that much for us in fantasy. The Falcons have to deal with another tough run defense in the Jaguars. The Jaguars have done a decent job holding fantasy running backs, allowing the third fewest points per game. The Falcons are an elite-run unit, so there is always hope. The game script of this game will be critical because we’ve seen the Falcons go run heavy if they are within close games. We saw in week three that things didn’t go great as they were behind, so it will depend on which Jaguars team shows up. 

The Jaguars have given up six receptions per game in the running back position. Robinson has been used heavily on passing down, so his value should continue as an RB1. Tyler Allgeier continues to see his touches drop, as he had less than ten in week three. It seems likely that Allgeier is slowly turning into just a backup rather than a 1B in the offense that we saw in week one. Allgeier is a borderline RB3 in week four.

The running game isn’t the issue with the Jaguars. Travis Etienne has been running well this season. He has two games over ten fantasy points and has the command of the Jaguars’ backfield. The Falcons, on paper, are top ten vs. fantasy running backs, but they’ve allowed the nine most rushing yards. They haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown, which looks great toward the defense rank. The Jaguars will use Etienne as much as possible, and he should be an RB1 in this matchup. Tank Bigsby scored that touchdown on Sunday, but his usage has been minimal. 

Pass Catchers

As we all know, there isn’t much to say about the Falcons pass catchers. Drake London saw a solid target share but only caught two passes in week three. London is going to be a boom-or-bust play every week. I don’t see any upside, especially in this decent matchup for London. London is a borderline WR3 with boom/bust appeal in this week’s matchup. Mack Hollins has the same number of targets as London but under eight fantasy points in each game.

Kyle Pitts had his best fantasy day of the season with 6.2 fantasy points. That is saying a lot about his fantasy season. Pitts is still leading this tight end, but it’s turning into a two-person room. Jonnu Smith ran ten fewer routes than Pitts and only had one less target. They had 17 combined targets between the two of them on Sunday. The Jaguars have allowed a touchdown in back-to-back games but held tight ends under 40 yards. It’s still hard to trust Pitts, so he is a borderline TE1, but his upside isn’t there. 

The Jaguars receivers have been overwhelming the last few weeks. Calvin Ridley’s hot start has turned into two bad games with a 33% catch rate. He dropped two touchdowns this past Sunday. Christian Kirk has been a bit more consistent the last two weeks. It is a concern we haven’t seen both of them be able to succeed together. That could be an issue for fantasy if we have to go back and forth. The Falcons have given up fantasy points to the position even though, on paper, they are in the top 10 against receivers. Calvin Ridley looks like a low-end WR2, as his value isn’t as trustworthy at the moment, but he continues to start in this matchup. Chrisitan Kirk’s value could dip if Zay Jones plays, but slot receivers seem to be the Falcons’ weakness in the secondary. Kirk should be a high-end WR3. If Zay Jones plays, he is likely WR6. 

Opp	GP	Y/R	Rec	Tg	Yds	TDs	Ru At	Yds	Ru TDs	FL	2Pt	MISC TD	FP	.5 PPR	1PPR
@IND	1	9.8	5	5	49	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.9	7.4	9.9
KC	1	9.5	6	8	57	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.7	8.7	11.7
HOU	1	9.6	7	8	67	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7	10.2	13.7

Evan Engram has been the only consistent option in the Jaguars pass attack. He has been solid but great for the tight end position. His target share seems safe, even with three receivers getting big workloads. The Falcons allow the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. They just gave up a big game to Sam LaPorta, so expect Evan Engram to finish as a TE1 again. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Highmark Stadium
• Weather – Sunny Day : )
• What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -2.5) & Over/Under 53.5

Identifying the Game Script 

The Dolphins and Bills have averaged 47.6 total points in the previous five outings. The Bills have won nine of the last ten games against the Dolphins. In 2022, these two teams were very competitive, scoring over 55 points in each game. The Miami Dolphins are coming off a college football game where they beat the Broncos 70 to 20. The offense looks dangerous, but they have a big test in week four. The Bills have played them well and are coming off another win over the Commanders. Let’s see who the real king of the AFC East is.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa is a man on fire in fantasy football at the moment. Tua averages 300 yards and three touchdowns per game without any rushing floor. He has 28 fantasy points in two of three games this year. The Bills are a formidable unit. They haven’t allowed a pass catcher over 200 yards and only two passing touchdowns on the year. The Bills have been Tua’s weakness over this career, and last year, he averaged 210 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns. This will be a real test for Tua and the Bills defense. Tua has played average defenses so far, and the Bills have played the bottom of the bottom quarterbacks. I think it’s safe to value Tua as a high-end QB2, but he will be ranked as a QB1 since the upside is there.

Josh Allen is coming off another fantastic finish and seems to have his groove back in fantasy. Josh Allen plays a Dolphins team that hasn’t allowed a multi-passing touchdown game yet but does give up yardage to the quarterback. Josh Allen seems to have the Dolphins number over his career. He has averaged 300 all-purpose yards and almost three touchdowns per game over ten contests. Josh Allen is a QB1 in week four. 

Running Backs

The Dolphins backfield ran crazy in week three for 375 total yards and eight touchdowns. Now, don’t expect those types of numbers every week. They won’t have as easy of a matchup in week four. The Bills can be run on as they have allowed two rushers over 70 yards on the season but still haven’t allowed a running back to score a touchdown. Rasheem Mostert is still the team’s RB1 as long as he is healthy. It seems like Mostert and DeVon Achane will split the early-down work in the offense moving forward. Mostert will likely get the third down and two-minute offense role as the trusted veteran. Mostert should be considered a high-end RB2 but will probably be ranked as an RB1. He should be someone you start in week four. 

Devon Achane was electric in week four and deserves a more prominent role in the Dolphins offense. If he does return in week four, I’d say Achane has over-overtaken Salvon Ahmed. Ahmed missed week three with an injury. Achane should see between 6 to 12 touches in week four. It makes him a low-end RB3 with an upside you could flex in this matchup. I want to see how these two running backs are used in a typical game because that will be key moving forward with them in fantasy. 

James Cook is the primary back for the Buffalo Bills, and it’s not even close. He is handling a healthy 14 carries and four targets per game. He is producing 111 yards per game with that opportunity. Miami has played much better against the runs since their week one disaster vs. the Chargers. Since then, they have an average of 70 yards to the position. James Cook should be solid in this matchup, but he does need to score. His limited usage by the goal line prevents him from being a true RB1. He is a high-end RB2 for fantasy. The rest of the backfield has no valuable players to put in lineups. Latavius Murray could take over Damien Harris for the backup running back job. They are touchdown or bust type of players. 

Pass Catchers

The Dolphins pass catchers are Tyreek Hill, and sprinkle in some Jaylen Waddle. They have a tough matchup in week four. The Bills are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season. They have allowed just one receiver over 60 yards this season. The return of Tre’Davious White has been a significant upgrade to the secondary. Last year, Waddle and Hill played the Bills three times in 2022. Waddle averaged three receptions for 86 yards, and Hill averaged six receptions for 57 yards. Tua didn’t play in one game, and in the other two, we aren’t sure what kind of condition he was in with his concussions. This year, the Dolphins passing attack seems unstoppable, but they did get shut down vs. the Patriots. Hill finished with less than 60 yards, and Waddle had 87 yards. Unlike the Patriots game, I do expect this to be more high-scoring, so there is a chance for both to go off. Hill should still be a WR1, and Waddle as a low-end WR2. The tight end for Miami isn’t worth starting with Durham Smythe, but Julian Hill is a name to keep your eyes on, especially in the dynasty.

The Buffalo Bulls are like the Dolphins, as they only have two receivers worth starting. Stefon Diggs has ten fantasy points in each game this year and 100 yards in two of three contests. Gabe Davis had one blow-up game this year, but a long touchdown that saved his day in week three. The Dolphins are beatable in the air but haven’t given up much production. In the Broncos games, the receivers got their stats padded in the blowout. Stefon Diggs averaged 82 yards last year vs. the Dolphins in three games. Gabe Davis averaged 68 yards over three games as well last year. Diggs is a WR1 because he still sees heavy target volume that will make his fantasy day. After this week’s three performance, Davis is more of a low-end boom/bust WR3 in week four. No other receiver is seeing enough work to be considered playable.

The tight end for the Bills is a logjam. Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have been splitting the starting job all season. Knox is still leading in playing time, but Kincaid is leading in passing production over three games. Miami gave up a touchdown to a tight end in back-to-back games to start the season. This could be a game that will keep the tight ends involved. Kincaid lost playing time when the game script favored the Bills. In a potential shootout, Knox and Kincaid both should be involved. They are both mid to low-end TE2s.

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Solider Field
• Weather – Sunny Day : )
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DEN -3.5) & Over/Under 46

Identifying the Game Script 

These two teams haven’t played each other since 2019. The Bears would win a close one, 16-14, over the Broncos on the road. The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing defensive performance as they lost 70 to 20 against the Dolphins. The Bears also lost more than 30 points in week three to the Chiefs. Both these teams have high expectations on offense but have disappointed. Neither defense knows how to stop any offense. It’s going to be the battle of bad defenses.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson isn’t helping the Broncos win games, but he has been decent for fantasy football this season. He has back-to-back games with 300 passing yards. The Bears are a bottom team against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed two of three quarterbacks with three passing touchdowns. Wilson should look to bounce back in this outing, especially if he can get the rushing going. We saw when Wilson was running, he had his best fantasy game. Wilson is a mid-range QB2 who should be good for Superflex leagues. 

Justin Fields needs to step up in a big way. He has under 17 fantasy points in each game this season. His completion percentage has dropped in each game so far to a 50% rate in week three. Fields can’t escape pressure, with 13 sacks in three games. The matchup with the Broncos is favorable as they allow the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game this year. The Bears need to allow Fields to do what he does best and run the ball. This matchup is a do-or-not game for Justin Fields this season. He is a borderline QB1 for week four with massive upside and risk. 

Running Backs

The Broncos running backs continue to disappoint for fantasy this season. Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine have not produced over ten fantasy points this season. Williams continues to be the early-down runner while he split with Perine on the passing work and third-down role. This backfield has a favorable matchup as the Bears give up the second most fantasy points to running backs. The Bear’s defense gives up a little of everything, especially four rushing touchdowns on the season. I look for Javonte Williams to be a high-end RB3. I think he has an upside as a sleeper in this favorable matchup. He has at least 59% of the team’s carries this year. Samaje Perine looks more like an RB4 in week four. 

The Bears backfield may be just as of a headache as the Broncos. Khalil Hebert had his worst fantasy game of the season with just 2.5 points. Herbert had the early down work primarily to himself, but lately, Roschon Johnson has edged him out with one more carry in week three. The running back usage changes weekly, but Johnson’s snap count has increased. The Broncos’ defense got shredded for 300 rushing yards in week three. If the Bears were smart, they’d try to get the run game going, as it will only help with the pass. Herbert and Johnson should be considered low-end RB3s, and I hope there is some significant upside if you flex them. 

Pass Catchers

The Broncos pass catchers need to get going on offense. Courtland Sutton has been a solid WR 3 this season. He has been playing much better than last season. He looks like the team’s WR1. Jerry Juedy looks more comfortable in the offense, as he had seven receptions for 81 yards in week three. The Bears are a beatable team in the air, so I do like this matchup for these two. Sutton and Jeudy should both be considered to start in week four. They are WR3 values that could have a big game against the beat-up Bears’ secondary. 

Brandon Johnson is playing third in snaps, but he is just a guy. Marvin Mims, though, has been a big play waiting to happen. He has touchdowns in the last two games but continues to play under 30% of the snaps in the offense. It’s hard to trust the young rookie to stay hot while only seeing every little opportunity in the offense. Mims is out of the top 50 receivers but has deep sleeper appeal. Since his five for 34 yards in week one, Adam Trautman has been held catchless over the last two weeks. The matchup is solid, but it’s hard to trust any production for him. He should be outside the top 24 tight ends. 

I somewhat trust only one receiver in this Bears offense: DJ Moore. He had a difficult matchup in week three, and a garbage touchdown saved his fantasy day. Both Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool were invisible in week two. The Broncos have been in the bottom ten against fantasy receivers this year. I hope DJ Moore will be a startable asset in week four. He is a WR3 who should be able to win against this secondary. Mooney and Claypool are outside my top 70 receivers and should not be considered starts in week four. Cole Kmet isn’t playing to the same level of offensive snaps he was last year. Kmet’s targets seem to drop down with just two in week three. The Broncos haven’t allowed a tight end to over 40 yards this season. Kmet is more of a high-end TE2 in week four. 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Highmark Stadium
• Weather – Sunny Day : )
• What Vegas is saying – Line (CLE -3.0) & Over/Under 40

Identifying the Game Script 

We have another divisional game in the AFC North. Over the last four games, these teams have averaged 32.75 total points. In the previous two years, these teams have split off wins, and the home teams have won their game. The Ravens are coming off a surprising overtime to lose the Colts. At the same time, the Browns took care of business against the Titans. This is an essential game for both teams looking to get ahead in the divisions.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson has been on fire the last two games, with over 25 fantasy points each. Whether he does it in the air or the ground, Jackson has been a dual-threat star at quarterback. He will face his most brutal defense yet. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterback this season, averaging just 5.9 fantasy points per game. While they haven’t played anyone that well (Injured Joe Burrow), they have only allowed one passing touchdown and minimal yardage. Jackson, over nine career games, has averaged 219 total yards and just 1.4 touchdowns per game vs. the Browns. Jackson hasn’t done well vs. the Browns. He should still be a QB1 in this matchup, but lower your expectations for his success in week four. 

Deshaun Watson has done decently over these first three starts of the season. He is still making a few questionable mistakes but is solid in two of three games for fantasy. He gets a tough matchup vs. the Ravens, who have been top 10 vs. fantasy quarterbacks. The Ravens have allowed, on average, 225 passing yards and one touchdown per game. I do expect this game to be lower scoring, so Watson only having one touchdown on the day is likely. He should be considered a high-end QB2 for week four. 

Running Backs

The Ravens backfield again can’t stay healthy for their life. Justice Hill was out with a toe injury in week three. Gus Edwards led the way with 51 rushing yards, and that was it. Practice squad buddies Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake saw work in the offense, especially with the passing plays. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. They haven’t allowed a 60-yard rusher or a rushing touchdown to date. Gus Edwards suffered a concussion but will be fine, as he practiced on Wednesday. Justice Hill is supposed to come back as well. 

For week four, they both should not be starting. Each would need a touchdown would need to save their fantasy days. Edwards is likely a low-end RB4 with no upside, even if Justice Hill misses again. Justice Hill Is more of a high-end RB4 if he plays. Hill has the passing work and goal line work to be more successful than Edwards.

Jerome Ford handled most of the work with Nick Chubb out with a season-ending injury. He wasn’t overly effective but did score two touchdowns against a tough Titans run team. The Ravens are going to be much easier to run on. They let Zach Moss produce over 120 yards on them in week three, but they haven’t allowed too much before that. Jerome Ford had most of the carries and worked on third down over everyone. He should be a low-end RB2 in this matchup. Kareem Hunt is back! He was on a limited snap count and managed 35 yards on seven touches. I do expect Hunt to see more work. Kareem Hunt should be a low-end RB3 for week four.

Pass Catchers

The Ravens pass catchers run through Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, but this is a tough matchup. The Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers and tight ends. The Browns have allowed one receiver over 50 yards, and that was George Pickens with 125. He had a 72-yard touchdown during that game. This year, they haven’t allowed a tight end to produce over 20 yards yet. Zay Flowers has been a PPR machine for fantasy. He has 21 receptions for 188 receiving yards. Flowers should be considered a mid-range WR3, as I see him getting six receptions but for low yardage in this game.

Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman should not be starting radars now, and they are both banged up at practice. Mark Andrews will be tough, but he continues to show he is 100% healthy. It is slightly concerning that Andrews hasn’t produced over 50 receiving yards yet this year. Andrews has averaged 54 receiving yards and .7 touchdowns per game over his ten career starts vs. the Browns. You have to roll that risk with Andrews and hope for the best. He is a TE1 in week four.

The Browns receivers are led by Amari Cooper, who looks fantastic for fantasy. Cooper has seen back-to-back 90-plus yard games. The matchup with the Ravens on secondary is decent. They have given up six receivers over 50 yards in a game this year. Last year, Cooper put up 132 yards in two games vs. the Ravens. Cooper has been great to trust now that he and DeShaun Watson are on the same page. Cooper should be a high-end WR2 in week four. Elijah Moore and Donavon Peoples-Jones are tough plays this season. Peoples-Jones is unstartable right now. He is outside my top 50 receivers in week four. Elijah Moore is interesting, as he has seen 25 targets over three games and six carries. He is getting the work, but the production has only been 151 yards. Elijah Moore is a high-end WR4 with some upside.

David Njoku is catching everything that comes his way but hasn’t produced much for fantasy. He has been held under five fantasy points in each game this season. The Ravens haven’t allowed a tight end over 20 receiving yards yet. David Njoku is a sit and a mid-range TE2 in week four.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Nissan Stadium
• Weather – Sunny Day : )
• What Vegas is saying – Line (CIN -2.5) & Over/Under 41

Identifying the Game Script 

These teams have played each other twice over the last year. The Bengals won both games on the road in Tennessee. The Bengals are coming off a hard-fought game over the Rams as Joe Burrow risked everything to help get the Bengals the win. The Titans got embarrassed as they were beaten down by the Browns in week three. Two former playoff teams are looking to get their season back on track in week four.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow has not been great to start the season. He is dealing with a nasty calf injury that almost made him miss week three. He has thrown over 40 times in back-to-back games but only resulted in two total touchdowns. The offensive line isn’t giving Burrow enough time to look downfield, often resulting in quick, short throws. The Titans have allowed each opposing quarterback at least 280 passing yards in all three games. Each of the last two quarterbacks has finished as QB1 in fantasy. It is not about the favorable matchup for Joe Burrow but his health. You must assume he is not coming to this game at 100%. It’s a risky play to start Burrow, but it may be worth it. He isn’t a confident start but should be valued as borderline QB1 for week four.

Ryan Tannehill has been horrible this season. He has a 59% completion rate and averages under 200 passing yards per game. His offensive line isn’t giving him any time, with 13 sacks already this year. The Bengals have a decent pass defense, but they are beatable. They also just had six sacks in week three, so it could be a bad day for Tannehill. There hasn’t been any trust in Tannehill, so keeping him off starting lineups is best. He is QB3 in week four.

Running Backs

This supposed run-first offense can’t seem to get the run game going. The Titans are a bottom-tier team in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears combined for 29 total yards in week three. The Bengals, on paper, show as a top 10 unit vs. fantasy running backs. The Bengals give up rushing yards, but they have allowed just one rushing touchdown and minimal passing production. Derrick Henry is dealing with an injury that seems to have limited his play on the offense. He is seeing double-digit carries but is averaging 3.5 YPC on the season. 

The offense doesn’t seem to be able to move the ball to give Derrick Henry a chance to cross over the endzone. Henry is still Derrick Henry, so he is a high-end RB2 but not trusted as an RB1 in week four. Tyjae Spears is starting to gain a role in the offense, especially in the two-minute offense role. Spears has out-snapped Henry twice but is not being productive with the opportunity he sees. Spears should be an RB4 in week four. 

Joe Mixon is continuing to see the majority of the backfield this season. He has at least 13 carries in each game and sees some work in the passing game. The Titans continue their streak of not allowing a 60-yard rusher dating back to week three of 2022. They shut down any work from a usually good Browns run game. Even this year, they haven’t allowed a rusher over 50 yards. The Bengals’ offensive line has not been that great so far. Mixon is only averaging 55 rushing yards per game. This would be a game that perhaps allows the Bengals to be ahead, but the Titans still haven’t given up rushing yards. Unless he scores a touchdown, Mixon is a mid-range RB2 in week four.

Pass Catchers

Like the rest of the Titans’ offense, the pass catchers aren’t much better. DeAndre Hopkins has been the only consistent option in the offense, but he has barely broken ten fantasy points. The Bengals’ secondary has given up yardage to receivers, but it’s not the biggest production. If the game script is right, the Titans receivers can produce. DeAndre Hopkins is banged up and not playing his entire workload, but he is getting targeted when he is on the field. He should be a low-end WR3 and probably the only one worth trusting to play.

Nick Westbrooke-Ihkine is leading in snaps and routes run but isn’t being targeted. Treylon Burks and Ryan Tannehill don’t seem on the same page right now after having one reception on six targets last week. Chig Okonkwo is playing like a starting fantasy tight end regarding snaps and routes run but is seeing minimal targets on the field. The Bengals allow the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. Perhaps this is the week Okonkwo can get things going. He is a midrange TE2 in week four.

For the Bengals, it’s all about how healthy Joe Burrow is for the offense. As long as Burrow is on the field, you start his receivers. The receivers have a fantastic matchup, as the Titans have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to receivers this year. They have allowed five receivers over 80 yards in over three games. Ja’Marr Chase shined for a fantasy day in week three with 140 yards. He should be considered a WR1 in this matchup. Tee Higgins laid another goose egg, but that’s what Tee Higgins will do in Fantasy. It is a favorable matchup; you must start him and hope for his talent and ability to help him produce. Higgins should be a WR2 in week four. Tyler Boyd is a good receiver and has seen 17 targets in the last two weeks but minimal production. He is a wildcard and likely a low-end WR4. Whether Irv Smith is on the field or not, it’s hard to trust the position to produce.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Lucas Oil Stadium
• Weather – Indoors
• What Vegas is saying – Line (EVEN) & Over/Under 46

Identifying the Game Script 

The last time these teams played each other was back in 2021. The Rams would win a close one over the Colts 27-24. The Rams lost a close one on MNF against the Bengals as the Ram’s offense did not look as good as we have seen this season. The Colts won a surprising game with Garnder Minshew over the Ravens in overtime. Both teams want to keep their season going, so let’s see who can come out on top.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford failed to reach three straight 300-passing-yard games. Stafford has been throwing the ball very well and still has three games of 260 passing yards. The only issue has been his two passing touchdowns on the season. This could be Stafford’s best game yet, as the Colts have a terrible secondary. The Colts defense has allowed each opposing quarterback to finish with 22-plus fantasy points. I’d expect Sean McVay to exploit that and use Stafford’s arm in a big way. Stafford should be a mid-range QB2 in week four. 

Anthony Richardson missed week three with a concussion but should be back in lineups for week four. Richardson was coming off a fantastic first quarter in week two with two early rushing touchdowns. The Rams have been solid in the secondary this year, allowing just one passing touchdown. For Richardson, it’s not about his passing but his rushing ability we love. In a game and a half, he has produced 70 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. You should feel confident that he can continue to produce for us in lineups. His rushing floor makes him a low-end QB1 in fantasy for week four.

Running Backs

We love the Rams in fantasy because they like to go with a one-person backfield in Kyren Williams. After playing almost all the snaps in the backfield in week two, he played all the snaps in week three. Unfortunately, he didn’t score, so this fantasy day wasn’t all that great. The encouraging part was that he saw seven targets, but Matthew Stafford couldn’t connect with him. The Colts gave up rushing production in week one to running backs but minimal in the last two weeks. I’d expect Williams to bounce back and hopefully get the touchdown upside he has shown us in the first two weeks. Williams should be a borderline RB1 in this week four matchup.

The Colts also have a workhorse back in Zack Moss. Moss saw 30 carries and 122 yards against a decent run defense. After seeing all the snaps in week two, Trey Sermon got involved on third down in this game. Moss has always been considered a two-down back, so it’s interesting to see if his role changes. Getting Anthony Richardson back should help open the rushing lanes to allow Moss to run hard. The Rams have allowed a 60-yard rusher in every game this season. Moss should be a solid RB2 in a game that should be close, allowing Moss to run.

Pass Catchers

The Colts secondary has gotten beat down over the season’s first three games. They have allowed two 100-yard receivers and four touchdowns to receivers. Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have led the Rams in the passing game. I’m going right back to them once again. Puka had a down week but still saw seven receptions for 72 yards. He should be a WR2 in this matchup. Tutu Atwell has been a solid surprise for fantasy and is being used in different ways on the field. He should be WR3 as long as he keeps this consistency up. Van Jefferson should be left off starting lineups for the foreseeable future. Tyler Higbee has a decent matchup, as the Colts haven’t given up a touchdown but 40 yards to opposing tight ends. Higbe had a nice week three game, but his production seems inconsistent for fantasy. Higbee should be a mid-range TE2 in fantasy.

The Colts’ pass catchers benefited in week three thanks to Gardner Minshew. Anthony Richardson has been decent in the air, but his rushing ability has hurt the receiver’s upside. The Rams allow good yardage to receivers but only one touchdown on the season. Michael Pittman should continue to be a solid WR2 in this matchup. He is seeing double-digit targets in each game this season. Alec Peirce and Josh Downs had their best games this year with Minshew. They are likely outside the top 50, as it is hard to trust Richardson to get them all involved enough. The Rams are solid vs. tight ends, but current starter Kylen Granson has been inconsistent in fantasy and should not be considered a top-24 tight end.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Caesars Superdome
• Weather – Indoors
• What Vegas is saying – Line (NO -3.5) & Over/Under 39.5

Identifying the Game Script 

Our next divisional game is between the Bucs and the Saints. Over the previous five games, these teams have averaged about 37 total points. The Bucs beat the Saints in both games last year. The Bucs’ magical two-game run to start the year had ended on MNF as they got beat down by the Eagles at home. The Saints gave up a 17-point lead after losing Derek Carr in week three. The NFC South is still wide open, so this will be important for both teams to win.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield is playing slightly better than what he showed us in 2022. He finally threw his first turnover of the season against the Eagles. He has averaged 200 yards and a touchdown per game this year. The Saints are playing very well against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have been doing well, keeping mediocre quarterbacks to a minimum this season. I’m expecting a low-scoring game between these two teams, and Mayfield may have a poor finish in week four. He should be considered a borderline QB2 that I don’t want to start in Superflex leagues.

Jameis Winston looks like he will fill in for the injured Derek Carr. Carr has a shoulder sprain and is likely to miss week four. If he does play, I won’t value him as anything more than a borderline QB2. Winston is getting revenge against his former team, the Bucs. Last year, in three starts, Winston played decently for fantasy, being a mid-range QB2. The Bucs secondary hasn’t been all that good this year. They allow at least two touchdowns per game to quarterbacks on the season. I still project this to be a lower-scoring game, but we know Winston has a gunslinger mentality. His game has some upside, and he should be a low-end QB2.

Running Backs

The Bucs backfield runs through Rachaad White. In week three, White continues to dominate the workload in all offensive phases. Backup Sean Tucker barely saw four snaps in the game. White has been very inefficient with his 3.1 YPC this year. He has 46 carries and caught all 10 of his targets. Like most of his matchups this season, the Saints are in the top 10 against fantasy running backs. They have allowed below-average production to running backs this year. White is worth a flex play as long as he sees all the workload. He should be valued as a high-end RB3 in fantasy. Sean Tucker is mostly a wait-and-see but is not getting almost any work.

The return of Alvin Kamara! Kamara is coming back after serving a three-game suspension. Kamara has not been the same player since taking on more work on the ground in the last two years. He used to average 180 carries per season, but recently, it has been at 230 carries. That has negatively impacted his passing value. Before the increase, he was catching 81 balls a season, but in the last two years, the average was 52. He looked good in that preseason game, so I expect him to see the full workload on Sunday.

The Bucs were a solid team vs. fantasy running back until they got shredded by DeAndre Swift in week three. Over Kamara’s career, he has averaged 90 total yards and almost a touchdown a game in 11 games vs. the Bucs. Kamara should be a high-end RB2 in week four. Kendre Miller is expected to take some of the early down work, but I like to wait and see how the backfield runs with Karama. Miller is like an RB5 and not startable in week four.

Pass Catchers

	Rec	Yds	TDs
2022	7	120	0
2021	3	62	1
2020	5	66	2
2019	4	69	0
	4.75	79.25	0.75

The Bucs pass catchers were a disappointment in week three, but I think that helped us see what this offense really is. The Saints haven’t allowed any dominant performances, but you can get by as a WR2. We all know that Marshon Lattimore and Mike Evans have had heated battles over the years. Evans has been playing too well to sit, but I lower expectations to a low-end WR2 in week four. As Evans has struggled, Chris Godwin has done very well for fantasy vs. the Saints. Godwin has averaged 85 yards per game over the last three contests vs. the Saints. He should be a high-end WR3 play in week four. Trey Palmer seems to have taken over the third receiver job but can’t produce in this offense. Cade Otton has a tough matchup and is outside the top 24 tight ends.

It seems Jameis Winston will be the week four starter, so what does it mean for the Saints receivers? It used to mean great things back then, which could still be the case now. When Winston came into the game up 17-0, he targeted Michael Thomas the most, followed by Chris Olave, then Juwan Johnson. The Bucs have been bad in the secondary vs. fantasy receivers this year. They have allowed 100-yard receivers in each game this season. Chris Olave should continue to be a borderline WR1 in a favorable matchup. Micheal Thomas is more interesting with Winston at QB because those two have a great connection. Micheal Thomas’ hot start in 2022 was partly due to Winston being the quarterback. I like Michale Thomas, a flex, and he should be a low-end WR3 in week four.

Rashid Shaheed has slightly faded after his week one game. He is more of a WR5 with upside in the right situation, but he isn’t a confident start. The tight end room is a headache. Taysom Hill is just a wild card that you must be dangerous to throw in your tight-end spot. Juwan Johnson has more yards in week one than in the last two weeks. Even with Foster Moreau out, Johnson’s snap count dropped a little. It’s a decent matchup for Johnson, but it’s tough to trust in starting lineups. He is a low-end TE2 in week four.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Lincoln Financial Field
• Weather – Sunny Day
• What Vegas is saying – Line (PHI -9.0) & Over/Under 43

Identifying the Game Script 

The divisional games are in full force in week four. These two teams have averaged 39.8 total combined points over the previous five outings. Last year, these two teams split wins. A fun fact is that these teams have always won at least two games in a row over the last decade before losing a second game. The Commander won the previous game in this matchup. After starting the season off solid, the Commanders faded in a real matchup against the Bills and lost badly. The Eagles are rocking a 3-0 start, even with an uneven play on the team. Divisional matchups are fun but essential for the season.

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell is coming off a terrible game three, finishing with less than one fantasy point. He threw four interceptions and was sacked nine times by the Bills’ defense. Howell looked solid over his first two games, but this Bills defense was a test, and he failed. I’d like to see more rushing from him since he has shown he can do it, but not this year. The matchup may be favorable for Howell in week four. The Eagles were destroyed over the first two weeks for 700 passing yards and seven touchdowns. In week three, they held strong over Baker Mayfield. The Eagles are getting healthy in the secondary, which could signify better defensive play. Howell is a borderline QB2 with some upside in week four. 

Comp %	Comp	Att	Yds	TDs	Ru At	Ru Yds	Ru TD	Sacks	Int
68%	21.0	31.0	213.3	1.0	10.3	33.3	1.0	2.7	1.0
67.35	22.0	32.7	305.0	1.3	12.3	55.7	1.0	2.3	0.3

Jalen Hurts hasn’t been that great of a passer this season. If you remove his 100 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, he has 212 passing yards and a 1:1 touchdown-interception ratio in each game. He isn’t getting the big yardage in games, which is capping his elite fantasy status. Granted, it’s a slightly new offense, and the run game has been solid, so the Eagles aren’t worried that we may see concerns for fantasy. The Commanders are a favorable matchup, as they have given up back-to-back QB1 performances. Jalen Hurts played well last year against the Commanders, averaging 260 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. Hurts is a QB1 for week four.

Running Backs

The Commanders have found their running back in Brian Robinson. In a tough matchup last week, Robinson still managed to have ten carries for 70 yards. Had the Commanders not given Antonio Gibson’s work, perhaps Robinson could have had a better day. Robinson has another tough outing ahead of him with the Eagles. They allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have not allowed a rusher over 40 yards this season. Robinson is a tough start, as he would need to cross the end zone and see more work in the receiving game to have a decent game. He is a low-end RB3 in week four. Antonio Gibson, I want nothing to do with you right now. He only sees about five touches per game and does nothing with them. His role is going to continue to drop with inefficient play. He is an RB5 and a sit in week four.

The Eagles backfield is blossoming, with D’Andre Swift being unleashed in the offense. In week three, Swift and Kenny Gainwell led the workload in two quarters each. Swift was used more in the first and third quarters. Gainwell led in the second and fourth quarters. Gainwell couldn’t produce how Swift did when he touched the ball. Swift did lead over Gainwell in most running back situations besides two-minute offense. Boston Scott, who plays mostly third down, was out for this game. The Commanders have allowed solid production to running backs this season. I’m still cautious with Swift as he isn’t seeing more passing opportunities, and it’s just his efficiency on the ground. He is an RB2 in this matchup. Gainwell will have a role, but the starting job is gone for now. I’d value him as an RB4 in week four.

Pass Catchers

The Commanders’ pass catchers have been a major disappointment this year. Not a single receiver has produced over 60 receiving yards on the season. They do have a favorable matchup against the still-recovering Eagles secondary. They have allowed five receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and at least one 60-yard receiver in each game. Terry McLaurin‘s per-game average vs. the Eagles has been 87 yards with only three touchdowns in eight career games. McLaurin sees a decent workload that makes him a low-end WR3 for this game. Jahan Dotson doesn’t seem to be used right in the offense, with back-to-back games around only 20 yards and zero touchdowns on the year. He is a borderline WR4 in this matchup.

Curtis Samuel may have more value than Dotson right now, as he had two games with at least 50 yards. He is sneaking up to becoming more of a flex option than Dotson, but I don’t trust either. He is a low-end WR6. The Eagles shut down any production to the Bucs’ tight ends in week three, but they still allow the most fantasy points per game for the position. Logan Thomas should return this week after being out with a concussion. If Thomas is a full go, he is a high-end TE2 in a favorable matchup. If not, Cole Turner is an interesting deep sleeper in this game. He had four catches for 35 yards in a split role in week three.

The Eagles pass catchers are much easier to break down, as the only two you want to start are DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown. Smith was big the first two weeks, and Brown was amazing in week three. The Commanders are in the bottom ten vs. fantasy receivers this year. Smith and Brown are both borderline WR1 in week four. Dallas Goedert has disappointed but is receiving a ton of targets. He has seen 14 targets over the last two games but just produced 60 yards. The Commanders have not allowed a tight end over 30 yards and haven’t given up a score year either. Goedert should still be a TE1 but more of a low-end in week four.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ Bank of America Stadium
• Weather – Sunny Day
• What Vegas is saying – Line (MIN -4.0) & Over/Under 46.5

Identifying the Game Script 

The last time these teams played each other was back in 2021. The Vikings would win an overtime thriller 34 to 28 over the Panthers. The Vikings are coming off yet another loss, making them 0-3 to start the season. The Panthers are also coming off another defeat as they lost on the road in Seattle. Both teams are looking to pick up their first week of the season, and someone will have it by the end of the game.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins has been a throwing machine, with over 300 yards each game and 40 pass attempts. While Cousins has struggled with five turnovers, he has found a way to throw up big fantasy numbers over the first three weeks. The Panthers may be the most formidable secondary Cousins has faced this year. This offense runs through the passing game, so the Vikings will find ways to force the ball into the air. Kirk Cousins should be a safe low-end QB1 for week four. 

Bryce Young is on track to return in week four after missing week three with an injury. Young has averaged 150 passing yards and a touchdown per game. Young hasn’t looked that sharp to start his rookie season. He has a fantastic matchup, as the Vikings have allowed quarterbacks the third most fantasy points per game. They have allowed at least two touchdowns in each game to opposing quarterbacks. It’s hard to trust Young to blow up coming off an injury. He is a QB3 with some upside to play in Superflex leagues.

Running Backs

The Vikings backfield is about to look very different with the addition of Cam Akers. Current starter Alexander Mattison finally had a respectable fantasy day in week three. The Panthers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to running back this season. They have allowed multi-rushing touchdown games in each game this year. They also have allowed four running backs over 40 yards rushing in three games. Alexander Mattison still should be a low-end RB2. I expect Akers to work in slowly and take some of the early down work. Mattison should remain as the primary back and be the third-down back. Akers is likely an RB5, but he is not confident to start.

Miles Sanders leads the Panthers backfield. He hasn’t performed all that great with a 3.4 YPC, but he has seen 19 targets in three games. He still sees 65% of the offensive snaps, which is excellent for this fantasy value. The Vikings have done well in two games vs. running backs this year. In week two, the Vikings got destroyed by D’Andre Swift for 175 rushing yards. I think Miles Sanders should be a low-end RB2. He should see the workload again with Byrce Young back at quarterback. Chuba Hubbard had his fewest touches of the season in week three. He is nothing more than an RB5.

Pass Catchers

The Vikings wide receivers do have a tough matchup on paper. The Panthers have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points a game to receivers. They did just let up their first 100-yard receiver in week three. The Panthers’ secondary is banged up, so I think they are weaker than they have shown. Justin Jefferson is a WR1. KJ Osborn is the WR2 on the team, but not in targets. He is a WR6 with upside in any week to score in this high-passing offense. Jordan Addison is having early success in his rookie season. He has an upside as a WR2 if he can score a touchdown. He is likely a borderline WR3 in this matchup. TJ Hockenson may have the best game among the pass catchers in week four. The Panthers are a bottom-10 team vs. fantasy tight ends this year. Hockenson continues to see eight-plus targets in each game. Hockenson is a lock for a top-four tight end in week four.

The Panthers receivers got a nice bump with Andy Dalton playing quarterback, but Byrce Young is back now. We can only hope they can stay afloat in fantasy. The good news is that the receivers are playing the Vikings, who allow the third most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed three receivers over 121 yards this season. I think Adam Thielen is the only one I’m willing to trust fully in this matchup. This is his revenge game, and he has played well in back-to-back games. Thielen had seven receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown in week two with Young. Thielen should be a low-end WR3 in week four. DJ Chark played great in week three with Dalton, but it is hard to trust his game for this matchup. He is better as a WR5 here. Jonathan Mingo will likely return in this matchup after leaving mid-way in week three. He is outside the top 60 receivers. Hayden Hurst has a tougher matchup vs. the Vikings, as they haven’t allowed a tight end over 30 yards yet. He is like a sit and outside the top 24 in week four.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 1:00pm @ NRG Stadium
• Weather – Indoors
• What Vegas is saying – Line (PIT -3.0) & Over/Under 42.5

Identifying the Game Script 

It’s been a while since the Steelers and Texans battled it out. In 2020, the Steelers would win at home 28 to 21 to the Texans. The Steelers are coming off a nice week over the Raiders as they try to find the season’s identity. The Texans are coming off an impressive win over preseason favor Jacksonville Jaguars. This Texans team looks competitive and is going toe to toe with their opponents. Let us see which young offense can be the top dog in this week-four matchup.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett finally threw his first multi-touchdown game of his career. Pickett hasn’t been that impressive so far this season. He is at a 60% completion rate and only averages 233 passing yards in each game. The Texans have been a top-10 unit against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have allowed one quarterback over 200 yards and two passing touchdowns this season. The Texans defense is terrible, so the Steelers offense may lean on the run. Pickett could have minimal usage and be left with a 200 passing yards and one touchdown type of day. He is a QB3 in week four and not worth starting. 

CJ Stroud has been on fire these last two weeks. The rookie has almost 700 yards and five touchdowns over weeks two and three. He looks poised in the pocket, and the offense relies on him to make plays. The Steelers have allowed a QB1 in each matchup to start the season. Their front seven is great, but their secondary has concerns. So far, Stroud is fourth in passing yards and air yards. He has the third most passing attempts on the season. The Texans’ run team has been inefficient, so the team may rely on the passing game. He is a mid-range QB2 in fantasy that you should start in Superflex leagues.

Running Backs

The Steelers run game looks like a straight-up 50/50 split now. By the fourth quarter of the Steelers’ last game, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren had 25 snaps each. I don’t expect that to change moving forward. The duo couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the Houston Texans. The Texans allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Texans have allowed an 80-yard rusher in back-to-back games and five rushing touchdowns on the season. Harris should be a high-end RB3 with a touchdown upside in this game. Jaylen Warren is continuing to see more work and has control of the passing downs over Harris. Warren should be considered a borderline RB3 in a favorable matchup that you could sneak into a flex spot in week four.

The Texans are still trying to get their run game going. Dameon Pierce has struggled with a 2.4 YPC but is seeing a lot of work in the offense. Last week, Devin Singletary got more action, but most of his work was in the fourth quarter when the Texans were up. Pierce isn’t seeing the third down or two-minute offense that often, which is a concern. This matchup is favorable as the Steelers allow the fifth most fantasy points to the position this year. After weeks one and two getting destroyed by the run game, they held Josh Joacbs in check with 17 carries for 62 yards. It’s hard to trust that Pierce will have a big game, but it’s possible. He has high-end RB3 value in this favorable matchup, but don’t expect the world from him.

Pass Catchers

The Steelers pass catchers revolve around George Pickens now. Since Diontae Johnson went down in week one, Pickens has eight receptions for 202 yards and a touchdown. The Texans have been a solid team against fantasy receivers, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game. They haven’t allowed a 60-yard receiver yet and just gave up the first touchdown to a receiver in week three. Pickens’ recent hot streak suggests you can start him as a low-end WR3 in the flex spot. The only concern is that the Steelers run game finally gets going, so the passing opportunity could be minimal.

Allen Robinson is a sit, and is outside the top 60 receivers. Calvin Austin flashed last week, but it’s still hard to trust him in lineups. He is also outside the top 60 but has some upside. Pat Freiermuth had a much better game in week three with 41 yards and a touchdown. That is what I want to expect from him most weeks. The Texans have given up 40 yards to a tight end in back-to-back games. Freiermuth should be a low-end TE1 in week four.

The Texans’ receivers have been on fire this year. They also have two receivers in the top 14 through three weeks. The Steelers allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers this year. The secondary has given up four receivers over 85 yards this year in three games. In week four, Nico Collins should be the highest-ranked receiver as a low-end WR2. He had a down week but still had six targets and was second in snaps and routes run. He split some time with Tank Dell on two receiver sets across from Bob Woods, which could be a future concern.

Tank Dell has been electric the last two weeks with 217 receiving yards and two touchdowns. I have Tank Dell as a borderline WR3 that you can start in the Flex. He has shown the ability to get open and make plays. Bob Woods is just an old guy having some fun out there but should be outside the top 60. He has some upside in his game if the passing attack does well. Dalton Schultz has been terrible this season. He has seven receptions for 47 yards in three games. The Steelers have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Schultz needs to be targeted more for me to trust him in lineups. He is a borderline TE2 at best.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Details of the Script

• Sunday -4:05 @ SoFi Stadium
• Weather – Indoors
• What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -5.0) & Over/Under 49

Identifying the Game Script 

We have a divisional game out west! The Raiders and the Chargers have combined for 51.4 total points in the previous five games. These teams have split wins over the last two seasons, and the home team has won their matchup. The Raiders are coming off a loss to the Steelers on Monday and may have lost their quarterback for this match. The Chargers were finally able to finish off a game and beat the Vikings in a shoutout matchup. This will be a fun divisional game to watch for fantasy.

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo’s status for Sunday is still up in the air as of Friday morning. He did practice on Thursday to some extent, so there is hope he can play. If he does play, He is a mid-range QB2 for fantasy. The Chargers allow the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback on the season. They have allowed at least 240 yards and have let up seven passing touchdowns. Jimmy G has been solid, with 19 fantasy points in two of three games. It would likely fall on Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell if he does miss. I expect Hoyer to start if so, but I wouldn’t trust that for week four. 

Justin Herbert is currently the QB2 on the season, as he has continued to improve his fantasy numbers each week. He gets a solid matchup against the Raiders, who have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game. Their defense is nothing to be scared about. Herbert has owned the Raiders, averaging over six games, 309 passing yards, and 2.5 touchdowns. Even with the loss of Mike Williams, Herbert should be in line for a big day and sits as a top-three fantasy quarterback for week four.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs is the guy in Vegas. He sees 72% of the carries and 80% of the offensive plays. Unfortunately, Jacobs has been held under ten fantasy points in each game this year. The matchup against the Chargers is decent. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in the back-to-back games. Last year, Jacobs averaged 100 yards in two games vs. the Chargers. I’m still trusting Jacobs because his workload isn’t going anywhere. Jacobs would like to get more carries if Jimmy G were to miss this game. He is a borderline RB1 in week four.

It seems like Austin Ekeler will return in this matchup for the Chargers. Reports are that he is feeling good and making the necessary cuts without pain. The star running back has practiced both Wednesday and Thursday, so it looks like he is back. Ekeler is back as an RB1 for week four. Joshua Kelley returns to being just a backup and not start-worthy in fantasy. Again, if Ekeler does miss, Kelley would likely be an RB3, and I’d have to assume the Chargers will mix in other backs this time.

Pass Catchers

Davante Adams and Jaboki Meyers have fantastic matchup. Yes. Those are the only two Raiders pass catchers I’m starting, especially if Jimmy G plays. The Chargers allow the most fantasy points to receivers this season. The Chargers allowed six receiving touchdowns this season. They do give up big games to receivers. Davante Adams should be a WR1 in week four. Jaboki Meyers has had two games of 85 yards receiving. He is a low-end WR3 in this matchup. The Raiders tight ends are targeted at a 5% rate, the lowest in the league. I’m not playing them.

The Chargers lost Mike Williams for the season due to a torn ACL. Thankfully, they still have Keenan Allen, who is having a historic season. He is on pace to break out all-time single-season receiving record and finishing with 17 touchdowns. I am rooting for him! The Chargers receivers have a terrific matchup against the Raiders in week four. The Raiders have allowed five receiving touchdowns on the season to receivers. Over the last two games, they have allowed four 60-yard receivers as well. Keenan Allen is averaging over 12 targets per game and should continue that with Mike Williams gone for the season. Allen is a WR1 in week four.

The competition to replace Mike William’s production starts in week four. Joshua Palmer is looking to take that third-year leap in the offense. When Palmer has been able to get seven-plus targets in a game, he puts up at least five receptions, 67 yards, and half a touchdown in 11 games. Palmer has an ample opportunity in this matchup to shine. He is a borderline WR3 that could have some upside in week four. The rookie Quentin Johnston is also fighting for more work and will see it in the offense. Johnston fits the big outside threat that Mike Williams has played. He plays the role naturally, but we’ll see if he gets it. Johnston moves up to WR4 range after being unstartable in the first three weeks. Derius Davis is a name to keep your eyes on, too.

Gerald Everett also could see some more work in the offense. He saw an increase to six targets in week three. Unfortunately, Donald Parham saw the two red zone targets and had the two touchdowns. The Raiders have allowed 40 yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games to the tight end. Everett should remain the guy and be a borderline TE1 in week four. Parham is tough to trust, but he has seven targets for three touchdowns.

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:25pm @ AT&T Stadium
• Weather –
• What Vegas is saying – Line (DAL -6.5) & Over/Under 43.5

Identifying the Game Script 

The last time the Patriots and Cowboys played each other, the Cowboys won an overtime thriller 35 to 27. The Cowboys finally won a game over the Patriots, as they had lost the previous seven before that game in 2021. The Patriots are coming off a “Do enough” win over the New York Jets. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss over the Arizona Cardinals. This game will likely be close, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones has faded after an impressive week one play when he threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, he has had 432 yards and just two passing touchdowns. The Cowboys are the third-best team against fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have kept them all under 200 passing yards with just two touchdowns. We know Mac Jones isn’t some elite option. It’s hard to trust Jones since this offense is not performing to standard, even being ranked first in pass attempts. The Cowboys are still tough against the pass, and Jones has no rushing floor to make this game great. Jones is likely a QB3 and not startable in most formats. 

Dak Prescott has been very mediocre so far this season. He is QB25 on the season, but it is not all on him. The offense doesn’t have to do much when the Cowboy’s defense gets out to big-game leads. It was disappointing that Dak got his opportunity in week three to move the offense, but he disappointed. The Patriots are a top-five unit against fantasy quarterbacks on the year. They have allowed two passing touchdowns and only one quarterback over 200 yards. This could come down to defense and running the ball, leaving Prescott in another poor outing. Dak is a mid-range QB2 in week four. 

Running Backs

In week three, the Patriots backfield moved back to more of a split run game that they showed us in week one. Rhamondre Stevenson is still the RB1 for this team, handling the majority of the work in the offense, especially on the passing downs. Zek Elliott takes the backup role on the ground but saw time in the two-minute offense in week four. Stevenson is still seeing a 70/30 snap count over Zeke Elliott.

The Cowboys, on paper, are ranked fourth against fantasy running backs, but they just let James Conner have a fantastic game in week three. The Patriot’s strength is their run game, so expect them to lean on it. Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t shown the RB1 upside that he gave us in 2022. He should be a mid-range RB2 in this matchup. Zeke Elliott had his best game in week three, but we can’t trust he will see 16 carries each week. Elliotts is likely a low-end RB4 in week four. Maybe Elliott could spark in this game as he prepares for a revenge game against the Cowboys. 

For the Cowboys, their backfield runs through Tony Pollard. He is averaging 21 carries and five targets per game. The Patriots run defense hasn’t held up that well against fantasy running backs. We saw the Dolphins and Eagles have decent outings vs. the Patriots’ run defense. Pollards should continue to be an RB1 for our lineups in week four. Rico Dowdle made some fantasy noise in week three, but his production was likely inconsistent for fantasy lineups in week four. 

Pass Catchers

The Patriots receivers are not the ones we want to have in fantasy. Outside of Kendrick Bourne’s week one outing, no receiver has produced over ten fantasy points. The Cowboys have been great this year but did allow an 80-yard receiver in back-to-back games. If I were looking for a sneaky play, it would be Devante Parker or Kendrick Bourne this year. Parker’s field-stretching role could go well vs. the Cowboys’ secondary. He is still, at best, a Borderline WR4. Kendrick Bourne has a serious threat ability and may sneak a big one in this game, but it’s risky with Bourne. JuJu Smith-Schuster is outside my top 65 receivers since he has ten receptions for 66 yards on the season. He was not playing much in two receiver sets, allowing rookie DeMario Douglas to see work in those situations.

The tight ends also have a tough matchup, but tight ends can beat the Cowboys. They haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position but have allowed yardage to the position. Hunter Henry should bounce back after a poor week three. He averages six targets per game and should be a borderline TE1 in week four.

CeeDee Lamb is the lead receiver that you will start for the Cowboys. The Patriots haven’t allowed big games to opposing receivers, but he is good enough to start. They also are banged up in the secondary that teams need to take advantage of while they can. Lamb should continue to be a seven-plus target guy in week four and be a WR1. The battle between Brandin Cook and Michael Gallup is slowly turning toward Gallup. Gallup had six receptions for 92 yards last week, but it’s hard to be consistent for fantasy. He is probably outside my top 50 receivers until we see more consistent work. Brandin Cooks is also outside the top 50 as he is dealing with an injury and not producing.

Jake Ferguson still leads the tight end position but saw some work in week three to Peyton Hendershot. Ferguson still has seen 18 targets through three games so far. He also has nine red-zone targets. The Patriots haven’t allowed a tight end over three receptions and 30 yards. While seeing a big target share, Ferguson isn’t getting the production we want in fantasy. He is, at best, a low-end TE2 in week four.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Details of the Script

• Sunday – 4:25 pm @ Levis Stadium
• Weather – Sunny Evening
• What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -14.0) & Over/Under 44

Identifying the Game Script 

Our final divisional weekend matchup is between the Cardinals and the 49ers. Over the previous five games, they have averaged a combined 41.2 total points. The winner in the last three games has won by 20 plus points. The 49ers swept the Cardinals during the 2022 season. The Cardinals are coming off a surprising win over the red-hot Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers took care of business last TNF and easily beat the Giants. Can the Cardinals pull off another surprise, or do the 49ers keep rolling?

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs has averaged as a QB1 over the last two games, as the Cardinal’s offense looks way more competitive. The 49ers are a tough team, as they have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They have allowed only two passing touchdowns but can let up yardage in the air. Dobbs has averaged 50 rushing yards over the last two games to give him some floor in his game. The 49ers shut down Daniel Jones from running in week three, so they will make it challenging. It’s still hard to trust Dobbs, but in week four, he looks closer to a borderline QB2 than he has all season. 

Brock Purdy gave solid fantasy output over the first three weeks of the NFL season. We can only hope he gets Brandin Aiyuk to have his full array of weapons back on display. The Cardinals are a bottom-ten unit vs. fantasy quarterbacks. While no quarterback has blown up against the Cardinal’s secondary, Purdy consistently should be able to do just fine. Last year, Purdy threw three touchdowns in week 18 against them. If Purdy can continue his 250 passing yards and two touchdowns, he should be in line for a high-end QB2 in fantasy. 

Running Backs

The Cardinals running back room runs through James Conner. He is being used as a true workhorse back in fantasy. He is handling 60% of the carries and is averaging 73% of the snaps in the backfield. The 49ers are a decent run defense; they haven’t allowed a ton of yards but have a league-high 21 receptions allowed. Conner isn’t being used in that way. It will be interesting to see if we see more passing work. Conner should see around 17 touches in the game and finish as at least a low-end RB2 in fantasy. Look for Emari Demercado to overtake Keaontay Ingram sooner rather than later as the backup. 

The 49ers also use a one-person system, with Chrisitan McCaffrey dominating fantasy football for the running backs. CMC has 20 fantasy points in each game this year and has a 5.9 YPC over the first three games. He is on his way to surpassing his career rushing yardage in the season. It also helps to have a touchdown in each game this year. The Cardinals are a bottom team against the fantasy running backs. They just gave up 122 yards to Tony Pollard last year; expect CMC to have another RB1 performance. Elijah Mitchell saw some life in week three, but he should remain a backup running back with no real stand-a-lone value. 

Pass Catchers

The Cardinals pass-catching group isn’t that exciting for fantasy. Hollywood Brown has stepped up with some decent numbers, with Joshua Dobbs playing better football. He has back-to-back 14-point games as he continues to be the WR1 for this team. The 49ers are a tough football team against receivers this season. They were able to beat underneath, and if the receiver has the talent to produce YAC. Brown should be considered at least a WR4 due to his consistency in the offense. Brown did suffer a hand injury during practice this week, so watch out for that.

Michael Wilson has just been a guy starting on the outside. There’s no real value for him. Rondale Moore is interested out of the slot, as I could see that being something in week four. He hasn’t done much to this point, but he was used on the ground for that big touchdown run. Again, he is outside the top 70 receivers, but it could be considered a deep sleeper play. Zach Ertz is seeing his snap drop over the first three weeks. He hasn’t done much with the heavy target share he has received. We could eventually see Trey McBride overtake Ertz in playing time. The 49ers have been good against tight ends allowed, not one over 20 yards. Ertz is outside the top 24 tight ends in week four.

For the 49ers, Deebo Samuel has stepped up with Brandin Aiyuk hurt and performed in a big way. He has seen high targets over the last two games, which has given us big fantasy numbers. Samuel has always done well vs. the Cardinals, averaging 65 yards over six career games. I’m going with the current production, and Samuel should be a WR2 in week four. Brandin Aiyuk would have played if the 49ers game were on Sunday last week. Ayiuk has gotten off to a fast start, but his shoulder injury has some concerns that he will not be playing at 100%. Aiyuk should be considered a WR3/flex play in a favorable matchup in week four. The Cardinals haven’t allowed a touchdown to opposing tight ends yet but have allowed at least 40 yards to each tight end. In two games last year, George Kittle had over 100 yards and four touchdowns vs. the Cardinals. He is back to that boom/bust TE1. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets

Details of the Script

• SNF – 8:20pm @ MetLife Stadium
• Weather – Sunny Day
• What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -8.5) & Over/Under 41.5

Identifying the Game Script 

The Chiefs and the Jets haven’t played each other since 2020. The Chiefs would win a blowout game over the Jets 35-9, which could be a sign of things to come in week four. The Chiefs are coming in another blowout win over the Bears as the team looks back on track. The Jets would lose a close one to the Patriots as the offense looks like the worst in football. This game could be very one-sided.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes continues to be an elite option for fantasy football. The Jets’ defense is one of those bend, not break units. Mahomes is almost game-proof in fantasy, so he should be in starting lineups. He is a QB1 in week four. 

Zach Wilson has been terrible since getting put back into the starting lineup for fantasy. He hasn’t scored over 12 fantasy points yet this year and sits at QB31 on the season. Only the Panthers’ situation is lower. Wilson can’t seem to move the ball in the offense, and I’m surprised he is still the starting quarterback for this Jets team. The Chiefs’ defense is looking better and better each week. It’s an obvious sit and likely to finish week four under the QB30. 

Running Backs

The one to play for the Chiefs’ running backs is still Isaiah Pacheco. He had a solid game, seeing at least 17 touches, and scored a touchdown in week three. Granted, he was on the injury report all last week but still managed a full workload. The Jets are average against fantasy running backs; they did allow the Patriots duo to rush over 130 yards last week at home. Pacheco seems like he will never be that elite option but a safe 12 to 15-point running back most weeks. The Chiefs will likely be head, allowing work to Pacheco on the ground. He is suitable for a low-end RB2 role in week four.

Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not be consistent options for your lineups. McKinnon only had 28 yards but so happened to get two receiving touchdowns. We can’t count on that each week. CEH saw increased playing time due to the Chiefs’ lead in week three. That could happen again in week four, but the touchdown by CEH made his day look better. Both are likely sits for him and are probably borderline RB4s in this week-four matchup. 

The Jets backfield continues to be a mess for fantasy. They did have a tough couple of matchups, but week four is still challenging. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. They have been pretty solid overall, and the way this game will go, it won’t likely be great for the backfield. With his usage and playing time, Breece Hall seems like the primary back in the offense, but he splits the groundwork with Dalvin Cook and the passing down work with Michael Carter. None of that is a recipe for fantasy success. Until Breece Hall can acquire one of the two roles, he should be an RB3 in week four. Dalvin Cook is falling from any starting value until this backfield starts producing. He is outside my top 50 in week four. 

Pass Catchers

You cannot go anywhere near MSV or Kadarius Toney, who has a toe injury. Rashee Rice needs more playing time in this offense, and he started getting some in week three. He ran 16 of the 36 routes with Patrick Mahomes before the starters sat. Rice isn’t ready for starting lineups yet, but he is a name to continue watching as the season progresses. Travis Kelce is playing the team that allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, and he is the TE1 in week four. 

Snap Counts	Average	Week 1	Week2	Week3
Kadarius Toney	19%	25%	28%	3%
MSV	66%	63%	82%	53%
Skyy Moore	64%	69%	58%	65%
Rashee Rice	33%	31%	18%	51%
Richie James	13%	35%	4%	0%
Justin Watson	38%	29%	46%	40%

You cannot go anywhere near MSV or Kadarius Toney, who has a toe injury. Rashee Rice needs more playing time in this offense, and he started getting some in week three. He ran 16 of the 36 routes with Patrick Mahomes before the starters sat. Rice isn’t ready for starting lineups yet, but he is a name to continue watching as the season progresses. Travis Kelce is playing the team that allows the second most fantasy points to tight ends, and he is the TE1 in week four. 

The Jets pass catchers are called Garrett Wilson. Since Zach Wilson has taken over as the starter, players like Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Mecole Hardman are now unplayable in fantasy. All are outside the top 65 receivers, as there is no upside with Zach Wilson playing. This is a tough matchup, as the Chiefs have been pretty solid against fantasy receivers. Garrett Wilson is seeing enough that he can be considered a low-end WR3, but it’s not great. Wilson was supposed to be an elite fantasy option, but this offense makes it challenging for us. He sees a 25% target share, so that’s good enough to play in week four. Tyler Conklin is too inconsistent with Zach Wilson, so he should be left off the top 24 tight ends in week four.