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The Script for Fantasy Success: Week 5 – MNF

Week five wraps up with some big fantasy stars on primetime on MNF. Both teams have some quarterbacks trying to prove themselves. Who has the best chance to make noise for our fantasy lineups?

Green Bay Packers vs the Las Vegas Raiders

Details of the Script

  • MNF – 8:15 pm @ Allegiant Stadium
  • Weather – Indoors
  • What Vegas is saying – Line (LV -2.0) & Over/Under 44.5

Identifying the Game Script

The last time that the Packers and the Raiders played each other was back in 2019. The Packers would crush the Raiders 42-24 at home. The Raiders haven’t beaten the Packers in a game in over 30 years. The Packers are coming off a big loss to the Detroit Lions on the last TNF. The Chargers defensive line abused the Raiders but only lost by seven. The Raiders run game needs to step up in week five, and they have a fantastic matchup to run well. Jimmy G’s returning should help move the offense more than we saw in week four. The Packers need to take advantage in the air since the Raiders secondary has so many holes that Jordan Love and the receivers should thrive. I expect this game to be very competitive and close to keeping everyone relevant in fantasy.

Quarterbacks

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 27: Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) during the National Football League game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles on November 27, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA (Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire)

Jordan Love has been solid as the Packers quarterback this year. He has 900 yards and eight touchdowns through four games. One concerning thing is that his fantasy points have dropped in each game to under 20 points in week four. Teams are possibly starting to figure out what Love likes to do. Love has been overly efficient with his fantasy points, so he likely is returning to the median. The Raiders are in the bottom ten against fantasy quarterbacks this year. They have only allowed one passer over 250 yards but have allowed ten total touchdowns to the position. That’s right in Jordan Love’s wheelhouse since he doesn’t see big yardage totals but somehow gets two-plus touchdowns a game. Now that Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are back going into their second game from injury, it should only help Love. Love has done much better on the road than in Green Bay this year. Love should be a low-end QB1 in a favorable matchup.

Jimmy Garoppolo is back in action after missing week four with a concussion. Jimmy G has been a solid fantasy quarterback when he is healthy and has Jakobi Meyers on the field. He has 19 fantasy points in two of those games this year. The Packers are a tough matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. They haven’t allowed a quarterback over 250 passing yards or one passing touchdown. This is a game that the run offense should thrive in, so Jimmy G may not have to throw the ball that often, either. Jimmy G is a low-end QB2 in week five.

Running Backs

The Packers backfield hopefully has a healthy, non-limited Aaron Jones in week five. Jones was the RB1 in week one but has missed time due to a hamstring injury. He was limited in week four and is questionable for tonight’s game. The Raiders run defense can be beaten, so if Jones plays, he has a shot, but I am concerned. The Raiders have allowed a 65-yard rusher in the last three games this year. Jones’s workload is a bit questionable. He was very efficient in week one, with only 11 touches. His questionable tag for week five concerns me. He is a high-end RB3. AJ Dillon has been a major disappointment since he has been given the starting job three times and has failed each time this year. If Jones plays, Dillon is a low-end RB4 at best; if Jones sits, Dillon is a low-end RB3 with minimal upside.

CINCINNATI, OH – JANUARY 15: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) carries the ball during the Wild Card game against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals on January 15, 2022, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

The Raiders backfield still runs through Josh Jacobs. He has seen 15-plus carries in three of four games this year. I wouldn’t take his 11 targets in week four too seriously since rookie Aidan O’Connell was starting in that game. Jacobs is playing over 70% of the snaps and seeing over 70% of the backfield carries this season. He is being that true workhorse back. The Packers run defense has been horrible this year. They just gave up a monster game to David Montgomery in week four. They have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. If the Raiders want to pull off this week, they must do better blocking for Jacobs. He could be in for a big game and should finish as an RB1.

Pass Catchers

The Packers pass catchers have a lot of young talent, but who is “the guy” there? Christian Watson looks back and is ready to go in week five after a nice fantasy outing in week four with a touchdown. Romeo Doubs has been filling in as the team’s WR1 and had a nice outing with nine receptions for 95 yards in week four. Jayden Reed has flashed in the slot and sees a decent workload usable in deeper leagues. The Raiders have given up six touchdowns to receivers this year. They have only allowed one receiver over 80 yards but four in that 60 to 70 range. I still rank Romeo Doubs as the highest-ranking Packers receiver, as he has a strong connection with Jordan Love. In training camp, they were building something nice, which has shown this year. Doubs is a mid-range WR3 for me in week five.

Christian Watson is interesting since he has big play ability, so it’s interesting to see what he is like on a full snap count. He is a better low-end WR3 with boom/bust potential in the offense. Jayden Reed should continue to see the slot work, but his targets could be cut if Watson does see a more significant share of the targets. Reed is a WR4 in this matchup.

The tight end starter should return to Luke Musgrave after he missed most of week four with a concussion. Musgrave has seen a decent target share, but we don’t know what it will be moving forward with Watson now back. The matchup with the Raiders is decent. They have allowed a 40-yard tight end in two of four games. Musgrave is a TE2 in week five.

The Raiders pass catchers are only Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Adams is doing well this season, proving he is quarterback-proof for fantasy. Meyers only does well with Jimmy G at quarterback, with 16 receptions for 166 yards with him on the field. The Packers are a decent matchup for these receivers. They have allowed seven receivers over 50 yards but only one over 70 yards. Adams should continue to be a WR1 with Jimmy G back on the field. You should monitor his health if he were to miss this game. Meyers, with Jimmy G, is producing as a high-end WR3. He is a good flex play for week five. The Raiders tight ends have been nonexistent, so there is no point in mentioning them.

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