Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers
Details of the Script
- MNF – 8:15 pm @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LV -2.0) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
We have two high-power offenses facing off on Monday Night Football. The last time these two teams played each other was back in 2021. The Cowboys would win a close one, 20-17, over the Chargers. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers after their defense couldn’t stop anyone, nor did their offense get going. The Chargers are fresh off a bye week after a big defense outing in week four win over the Raiders. This should be an exciting game as Kellen Moore gets to go up against his former team. I’d expect him to lean on the pass and to show off to the Cowboys. The Cowboy pass offense has an opportunity to get going against a poor Chargers secondary.
Dak Prescott has not been great for fantasy this year. In the last three weeks, Prescott has been under 20 fantasy points. Part of the reason is that the Cowboys’ defense has to be dominant, causing little effort needed for the offense. We saw last week the Cowboys offense didn’t answer the call when their defense got beat.
Even so, the offense hasn’t looked all that good in general. Prescott has a great matchup in week six on the road. The Chargers allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. When the Chargers have faced elite fantasy quarterbacks, they let up over 300 yards and three passing touchdowns. Against poor quarterbacks, they kept them under 250 passing yards and one touchdown. I think Dak could finish somewhere in the middle of that, where he has 285 yards and two touchdowns. Prescott should finish as a high-end QB2.
Justin Herbert is having an elite fantasy season this year. He has 22 or more fantasy points in each game this year. He just lost Mike Williams, but he still has excellent options around him. Herbert has a tough matchup in week six. The Cowboys allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Until week five, Dallas kept quarterbacks under 200 passing yards and two total touchdowns. In week five, Dallas allowed Brock Purdy 250 yards and four passing touchdowns. The recent injuries in the secondary seem to affect this defense, or they finally played a great offense. The Chargers are a high-scoring offense so we could see a solid game from Herbert. The Chargers pass attack should be on full display, allowing Herbert to finish as a QB1 in week six.
Tony Pollard leads the Cowboys backfield. After a solid start to the season, Pollard has been under six fantasy points in back-to-back games. To Pollard’s defense, the offense doesn’t need to do much, as Pollard seems to not play much in the fourth quarter of games. This matchup for Pollard is a good one. The Chargers have allowed an RB1 in three straight games, whether in the ground or the air. Pollard is still dominating the carries and snaps through three-quarters of football. He should be able to find the endzone as he is ranked second in red zone touches this season. Pollard should be able to get back on track and finish as an RB1 in week six. The rest of the Cowboys backfield aren’t seeing enough opportunities to be considered weekly options.
The Chargers backfield is getting their star running back in, Austin Ekeler, back on the field. Ekeler is back after missing the last four weeks due to an injury. Ekeler last played in week one, with a dominant performance with over 20 fantasy points. The Cowboys only allowed two backfields to finish as an RB2 or better in fantasy. I’m not overly concerned with the matchup, as Ekeler can find ways to produce fantasy points. He should be back as a RB1. Joshua Kelley returns to the back role but has no real value with Ekeler.
For the Cowboys pass catchers, they have a terrific matchup in week six. The Chargers allow the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have given up six receiving touchdowns this year and have allowed six receivers over 75 yards. All those stats happened in the first three weeks before the Chargers beat down the Raiders in week four. CeeDee Lamb has been the only consistent option in the passing attack, even in a down week in week five. Lamb should be able to bounce back close to ten targets and lead this team in yards. He should be a WR1 in week six. Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks have been disappointments in this offense as neither one can establish as WR2 from the other. Gallup has had a few decent games, but Cooks has also been hurt. They have some deep sleeper appeal and are ranked as WR5s. You’d have to be desperate and hope for upside to play them.
Jake Ferguson fell back down in week five but still had three receptions for 28 yards. His matchup vs. the Chargers is decent for the tight-end position. They have allowed three tight ends over 30 yards. The real value for Ferguson comes with his role in the offense. He saw an increase in targets in week five but had fewer receptions. His situation is up and down, but it is mostly what you want from your tight end. His red zone role is solid, with 11 targets in five games. Ferguson should be a TE1 in week six if he can regain his targets.
The Chargers pass catchers have a slightly tough matchup as the Cowboys ranked in the top five in stopping fantasy receivers. They have allowed three receivers over 60 yards with just two total touchdowns given up to the position. Keenan Allen is the WR1 on this team who is on pace for a monster season this year. He has scored over ten fantasy points in each game this year. Allen should be fine, even in a tough matchup. He is a WR1 here. It will be interesting to see what happens to the WR2 role following the bye week. Joshua Palmer held that down in week four as he acted like one of the starters in the offense. Palmer showed up with three receptions for 77 yards. He has over 60 yards in back-to-back games. Palmer doesn’t have the elite talent that Mike Williams has, but he should have flex consideration. He is a WR4 in week six.
Rookie Quentin Johnston will be an interesting one to watch for. Following a bye, most rookies see a bump in production or snaps for the offense. Johnston only played half the offensive snaps in week four. I wonder if we see more rotation with him and Palmer in 12 personnel. He has a tough matchup with a huge upside if he can see a more significant role. He is a WR5 but likely wouldn’t trust as much to start.
Gerald Everett is also looking to see more opportunities in the offense. He was beginning to lose work to Donald Parham in that week four game, so it will be interesting to see if he won back the job during the bye week. The Cowboys are a bottom-ten unit vs. tight ends this year. They have allowed three tight ends over 50 yards in three of five games. They also just let up a three-touchdown game. Gerald Everett is a low-end TE 2 with some upside if he gets his starting role back. Donald Parham is a dart throw at the tight end position that is hard to trust but could have a significant upside in this matchup.
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