Balitmore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 9:30 am @ Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- Weather – Sunny Morning
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BAL -4.0) & Over/Under 4.5
Identifying the Game Script
These teams always had some crazy battles but haven’t played each other since 2021. The Ravens would beat the Titans 20-13 in Tennessee. The Ravens took a terrible loss to an injured Steelers offense. The Titans lost a close one, even with Anthony Richardson missing more than half of the game. The Titans run defense failed as they were destroyed on the ground. The Ravens have an excellent opportunity to have a great game vs. the Titans. The Titans pass defense allows a ton to the passing game, but the Ravens receivers need to catch the ball. The run game for the Ravens looks like a more favorable matchup, as the Titan’s run game has not looked good. The Titans always find a way to play tough and stick around. I expect this game to be lower scoring, with the Ravens ahead for most of the game.
Lamar Jackson has to be pissed at his receivers with six drops in week five, some even in the endzone. It was a bad day for the pass catchers, but Jackson continued to do his best. I expect Jackson to bounce back, as he had zero touchdowns and two turnovers in week five. The Titans have slowed down quarterbacks the last two weeks, but they still have allowed 250 passing yards in four of five games. If the Ravens’ pass catchers can just hold on to the ball, then Jackson should be in for another big day. He is a QB1 in week six.
Ryan Tannehill continues to be terrible in fantasy this year, as he has been under ten fantasy points in four of five games. He has just two touchdowns on the season, and if he didn’t get that rushing touchdown in week two, his season would have been even worse. They are the Ravens, the second-best team against fantasy quarterbacks this year. They have allowed just two opposing quarterbacks over 220 passing yards. It’s hard to trust Tannehill to produce even in Superflex leagues at the moment. He is a QB3 who is not startable in week six.
The Ravens backfield is split between Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Edwards has double-digit carries in four straight games but has only one game over six fantasy points. Justice Hill has the potential to be the better back for this team, but injury has kept him from doing that. He has double-digit fantasy points in two of four games. The Titans were a dominant run defense for almost a year, but in the last two weeks, they have given up over 200 rushing yards. They have dealt with injuries in their defensive line, especially with Teair Tart not playing. Both of the Ravens running backs should be RB3s in week six. Edwards will get his groundwork, but I’m not expecting much from him. Hill should be seeing more work and has the pass-catching role. We should also keep our eyes out of Keaton Mitchell, who should be coming off the PUP this week.
The Titans backfields are starting to look like a two-man committee in fantasy. Derrick Henry continues to lead, but rookie Tyjae Spears has played over 50% of the offensive snaps. Henry has been inefficient this season, running under 4.0 YPC. He is still playing at a solid level but isn’t as elite as we know Henry. Spears is seeing, on average, about nine touches per game so far this year. I’d love to see more work for Spears, but as long as Henry is on the field, Spears will be limited. The Ravens are a top-10 unit this year vs. fantasy running backs. They have mostly contained opposing backs in four of the five games this year. They also haven’t allowed a running back to run in a touchdown this season. Henry should be a high-end RB2 who should see his double-digit carries, while Spears is more of an RB3 with some passing value in this game.
The Ravens pass catchers have a favorable matchup in week six. The Titans give up a ton of yardage to receivers this year. They have allowed seven receivers over 70 receiving yards. The Ravens pass catchers dealt with plenty of drops, so they need to get it together. Zay Flowers is still the only receiver you can confidently start each week. He has seen double-digit targets in three of five games this year. The touchdowns aren’t falling his way, as he only has about nine fantasy points per game. He should be a WR3 with upside for week six. Nelson Agholor has some deep sleeper appeal as he played most of the game vs. the Steelers in the slot, which limited Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham. Agholor is still just outside the top 60 receivers, but there is still deep sleeper appeal. Bateman and Beckham have yet to produce over 40 yards in a game. They are way outside the top 60 receivers.
Mark Andrews is the best pass catcher for the Ravens, but he has a tough matchup in week six. The Titans have allowed two tight ends over 30 yards on the year. They haven’t played anyone all that good, so Andrews should continue to be a TE1 in week six.
The Titans pass catchers have offered very little in fantasy this year. DeAndre Hopkins looks healthy and is coming off his best game of the year. We saw Hopkins play the most offensive snaps of the year at 83%. Hopkins is going up against a top-ten fantasy unit vs. fantasy receivers. He fits the bill for receivers who have been able to produce against this Ravens secondary. I’m not fully trusting Hopkins after one game in a tougher matchup overall. He is a flex option that should be a WR3 in week six.
Treylon Burks is out for week six. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is too risky to play unless you are in deeper leagues. Kyle Philips is back now and looks locked in for the slot role. He played 11 of his 14 snaps in the slot. He should continue to see more playing time as the season goes on. We all know that Tannehill has always favored his slot receivers. With Burks out again, Philips may reach WR5 value in week six. Chig Okonkwo had his best game of the season with five receptions for 33 yards. The Ravens allow the fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so he is outside the top 24 tight ends.
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (ATL -2.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
These two teams played each other during the 2022 season. The Commanders would win a low-scoring game 19-13 over the Falcons. The Commanders lost on TNF, as the team took a whole half before deciding they wanted to play the game. The Falcons had an impressive win at home as they continue to be undefeated under Desmond Ridder at home. The Falcons have a good/bad situation in week six as they have a favorable match-up in the air. The Commanders have a weakness in their secondary that the Falcons can exploit in this game. They showed the passing off in week five, but do they return to their running ways?
Sam Howell has performed well for us in fantasy this year. It hasn’t always been pretty, but three of his last four games went over 20 fantasy points. While it took him a while in week five to get going, he did manage to put up over 300 yards and two touchdowns in a single half. The Falcons are a decent secondary, as they have kept quarterbacks under two passing touchdowns in four of the first five games. They haven’t allowed a passer over 250 passing yards this season. In the one game where Howell had a tough matchup, he finished under one fantasy point. This will be another test to see if Howell can do more against a more formidable opponent, but he is a risky option in week six. He is a low-end QB2 in Superflex leagues.
Desmond Ridder is coming off a hot game where he finished over 300 yards and 26 fantasy points. Ridder seems more confident at home compared to on the road. As the graph above shows, Ridder does better, not great, when the Falcons play at their place. This could be a similar game where he may need to throw the ball to win the game. The matchup is favorable as the Commanders allow the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Ridder has never put back-to-back good games for us in fantasy yet. It’s hard to trust Ridder on those facts, but it is a home game, so there is a possibility he can. He is likely a borderline QB2 for Superflex leagues that I would lean away from just because of the trust factor that Ridder doesn’t offer.
The Commanders backfield also has a tough matchup in week six. The Falcons are in the top 10 vs. fantasy running backs this season. Most of that is due to not allowing a rushing touchdown on the season nor allowing much-passing production to backs. They have allowed a 55-yard rusher in each game this year. Brian Robinson has had a solid season as the primary back this year. He is averaging 75 all-purpose yards per game and averaging double-digit fantasy points. Robinson’s season has been based on the game script this year. When the game is close or they are winning, Robinson has produced. The Commandeers have abandoned the run game in games where they have been behind. Robinson should be involved all game vs. the Falcons and likely finish as a low-end RB2. Antonio Gibson had his best game of the season with four receptions for 64 yards. That was primarily due to the Commanders being down a lot at half. I still do not trust him as anything more than an RB4 in week six.
The Falcons backfield continues to annoy us in fantasy since we all just want Bijan Robinson to see 30 touches a game. We saw Tyler Allgeier jump up in offensive snaps to the 40% range, just like in the first few games of the year. Unfortunately, that will happen from time to time this year. This duo does have a decent matchup vs the Commanders. They have given up a 50-yard rusher in four of five games this year. Bijan Robinson will continue to lead this backfield, but his touches could be limited if the Falcons continue to use Allgeier. Robinson will get his work and handle the passing down, which will line up for another RB1 in week six. Allgeier isn’t startable in fantasy right now. We’ve seen him have a significant workload but finish under five fantasy points. He is a high-end RB4 that you would only play in a desperate situation for your lineup.
The Commanders pass catchers continue to disappoint for fantasy this year outside of Curtis Samuel the last two weeks. Samuel has seen 15 targets over the two weeks and produced over 100 yards and two total touchdowns. The Falcons have been a solid pass defense this year against receivers. They have allowed just two receivers over 60 yards this season. They have given up just one receiving touchdown to a receiver over the last three weeks. The Commander’s WR1 receiver, Terry McLaurin, has not been great for us in fantasy this year. He barely has one game as a WR2 finish this year. He also sees under seven targets in all but one game this year. In a tougher matchup, he is, at best, a low-end WR3.
The hot hand in Washington has been Curtis Samuel, who continues to see a solid target share who I have been trusting in fantasy. He commands the slot role, a position the Falcons struggle to stop. Samuel is a high-end WR4 with solid flex play in week six. Jahan Dotson has been a big flop this year and can’t be trusted in fantasy. He is a low-end WR5 that is not the worst starting. The position that should thrive is the tight end position. The Commanders have one of the highest target shares to their tight end position at 25%. Logan Thomas has been a nice tight end to start in lineups. He has produced decent to great fantasy points each week. The Falcons allow the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends this year. They have allowed three straight games over 50 yards to opposing tight ends. Logan Thomas is a nice low-end TE 1 in week six.
The Falcons receivers have a terrific matchup in week six. The Commanders allow the second most fantasy points to receivers on the season. They have allowed four straight 100-yard receivers on the season. They have allowed a league-high nine receiving touchdowns to receivers this year. This leads me to Drake London, and can he produce? It’s tough to say since it’s hard to trust his quarterback in fantasy. London sees a good target share that may be worth a shot in this favorable matchup. London is a decent WR3 that you can flex as a boom/bust play for week six. The reason for the boom/bust label is that his quarterback and he isn’t much of a YAC receiver, which are the ones who beat the Commanders. The Falcons just traded for Van Jefferson, but I don’t expect him to see much action in this first game, if he even does.
The Falcons tight ends seem to be the focal point of this offense. They have two tight ends over 25 targets through five games. Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith are taking more of a partnership in the tight end room. Kyle Pitts had his best game of the season with seven receptions for 87 yards, but his offensive snaps have dropped into the 50% range. He was targeted on 40% of his routes run, which is hard to maintain in fantasy. He isn’t on the field as much in 11 personnel, which is concerning. Jonnu Smith out-snapped Pitts in week five and had another solid outing, minus his fumble. The Commanders are a top-five unit against tight ends this year. They have allowed just one tight end over 30 yards. I’d still expect the Falcons to find a way to get these guys the ball. I think both tight ends are mid-range TE2s. Pitts is slightly ahead of Smith in week six.
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Soldier Field
- Weather – Rain Day!
- What Vegas is saying – Line (MIN -2.5) & Over/Under 44
Identifying the Game Script
Our first divisional game of the weekend is the Vikings and the Bears. Last year, the Vikings would win both outings against the Bears. In the previous five games, their average combined score has been 45.8. The Vikings have beaten the Bears over the last two seasons. The Vikings are coming off a loss at home to Kansas City. The Bears’ offense stayed hot as they beat the Commanders 40-20. Even with the recent loss to Justin Jefferson, the Vikings have a terrific matchup in the air. The Bears have allowed passing offenses to do whatever they want. The same can be said for the Vikings secondary, as the red-hot Bears look to take advantage of. I’d expect a high-scoring game on both sides of the ball.
Kirk Cousins has been fantastic as a low-end QB1 for fantasy football. He has two touchdowns in every game but has eight turnovers in five games. Cousins lost his best receiver, Justin Jefferson, and we haven’t seen Kirk without Jefferson in over three years. Cousins is coming into a fantastic matchup as the Bears allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed two-plus touchdowns in four of five games and 300 passing yards in three of the last four games. Cousins should be fine in this matchup, as he plays better on the road. Last year, Cousins was dreadful for fantasy on the road, but he is on par with his home stats in 2023. He is a borderline QB1 for week six.
Justin Fields has been on a tear for the last two weeks of fantasy. He has 600 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns over that span. He gets another great matchup with the Vikings. They have allowed two-plus touchdowns to quarterbacks in four of five games. Fields has 493 yards and two touchdowns in two career games vs. the Bears. There is no reason why Field shouldn’t be in starting lineups in week six. He seems to have found his stride for the season, and we should continue to roll with it. He is a QB1 against the Vikings.
Alexander Mattison still leads the Vikings run game for now. Mattison did play his fewest offensive snaps in a game this year during week five. Mattison was still handling the early downs and two-minute offense. Cam Akers saw some early down work and the short-yardage plays. The Vikings elected to use CJ Ham on passing downs in week five. This backfield is slowly becoming a headache, but Mattison has double-digit fantasy points in the last two games. He has a favorable matchup against the Bears, who allow the third most fantasy points to running backs. Most of the Bears issues aren’t in the rushing yards but in total touchdowns and passing volume allowed to backs this year. It will be interesting to see how this backfield is used on Sunday. Mattison should continue to get the first crack in the offense. This could be a game in which he gets back over four targets since he has been under that for the last two weeks. Mattison is likely a low-end RB2 who will need a touchdown to be great. Akers is still expected as an RB4 until we see more opportunities in the offense for him.
The Bears backfield will have a new lead running back in the fold with Khalil Herbert out for multiple weeks. Rookie Roschon Johnson is also out for week six due to a concussion. That will leave the Bears backfield with veterans D’Onta Foreman & Darrynton Evans. I can only imagine Foreman taking over most of the backfield work, with Evans working on passing downs. The Vikings have a decent run defense. Outside of their week three games vs. the Eagles, the Vikings have shut down running backs. The Vikings also don’t allow passing value to running backs on the year. Foreman should be ranked as a high-end RB3, and Evans is likely outside the top 50.
The Vikings pass catchers will look very different without star receiver Justin Jefferson on the field. I expect TJ Hockenson & KJ Osborn to see increased targets moving forward. Jordan Addison should see his snaps increase into more of a full-time position. The Bears are a favorable matchup for this new-look receiver group, as they are in the bottom 10 in stopping fantasy receivers. The Bears don’t usually allow receivers to go off for big games, but many with decent outings. They have just one receiver over 70 yards but eight receivers between 45 and 65 yards. Jordan Addison has seen a big target share all season, with 29 targets in five games. I expect him to move in and out of the slot. Addison is also in line for six-plus targets, ranking him a borderline WR2.
KJ Osborn is going to be the biggest question in this matchup. Osborn is a startable flex option and should be a low-end WR3 for week six. A potential deep sleeper is Brandon Powell, who saw time in the slot last week once Jefferson went down. Brandon Powell has also been known to see work as a rusher. He is still outside the top 60 players, but it’s interesting to see if his role does expand. For tight ends, the Bears have allowed a 50-yard tight end in three of five games. TJ Hockenson should see seven-plus targets in this favorable matchup. He should continue to finish as a TE1.
The Bears passing game revolves around DJ Moore and Cole Kmet this year. DJ Moore has added 360 yards and four touchdowns to this hot streak these last two weeks. Kmet has 127 yards and three touchdowns in that time. The Vikings allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers this year. Most of the production comes with yardage, with nine receivers over 50 yards in these first five games. DJ Moore is a borderline WR1 based on how he is playing and a good matchup. Darnell Mooney is hard to trust, even in this good matchup. He is a very boom/bust low-end WR5 that would be risky to flex in week six. Chase Claypool is gone, and Equanimeous St.Brown is on the IR, which could open the door for rookie Tyler Scott to see some action. He is worth monitoring.
Cole Kmet saw his snap count creep back up to 80%, which is the direction we want for him. The Vikings haven’t allowed much to tight ends this season. They have allowed a touchdown in two of the last three games. Kmet feels like a touchdown or bust tight end so far in his career. He doesn’t have high yardage but gets touchdowns to make his fantasy day great. He is a borderline TE1 in week six.
Seatle Seahawks vs Cincinnati Bengals
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Paycar Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (CIN -2.5) & Over/Under 45
Identifying the Game Script
It’s been a while since these two teams have played each other. The Seahawks would win a close 21-20 over the Bengals in 2019. The Seahawks are coming off a bye week as they won in week four to the Giants. The Bengals offense came alive as they had JaMarr Chase put the team on his back in a win over the Cardinals. The Bengals offense needs to continue this hot play, as they have a favorable matchup with Seattle’s secondary right now. This seems like a game that both offenses need to keep going to save their season. I expect a high-scoring outing in Cincinnati this weekend.
Geno Smith is hopefully well-rested following this bye week. Smith seems ready to go in week six after getting banged up in week four. Smith hasn’t had a confident start for most of the season. He has three games under 16 fantasy points this year. I hope the Seattle offense mixed some things up coming off the bye to get the passing attack going. The Bengals are not a great matchup for Smith. They haven’t allowed a passer over 270 yards but have allowed a quarterback to score two touchdowns in three of five games. Smith is a mid-range QB2 in week six. He is decent in Superflex leagues, but I don’t see his fantasy upside.
Joe Burrow is back! or is he? Burrow put up over 300 yards and three touchdowns in week five. He focused on Jamarr Chase, which allowed the Bengals to come out on top. This week, he faces Seattle, a more favorable matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed 300-yard passers and two passing touchdowns in two of four games. You can throw on this banged-up secondary in fantasy. It would be nice for Burrow to have his full assortment of weapons back, but we’ll see if Tee Higgins does play. I don’t want to rush Burrow back into the good graces, but in a favorable matchup, he is a QB1 again.
The Seattle running back room has worked well this season. Ken Walker is leading with three straight games of double-digit fantasy points. Walker has scored touchdowns left and right, with five over the last three games. He saw a more significant workload in week four, handling the two-minute offense. Rookie Zach Charbonnet continues to be the third down back for Seattle. The matchup for the Bengals is a decent one for fantasy this week. They have allowed over 100 rushing yards in three of five games this season. Based on how Walker plays, I’d expect him to continue seeing most of the work on the ground and likely three targets. Walker is an RB1 in week six. Charbonnet saw his playing time rise in week three but fell under 30% in week four. Usually, rookies find themselves in more significant roles coming off bye weeks. Charbonnet is a high RB4 to watch out for in week six.
Joe Mixon leads the Bengals backfield. Mixon is doing fine for fantasy, but no elite games. Seattle is a decent matchup for a potential touchdown for Mixon. Seattle doesn’t allow much yardage, as they have just two running backs over 40 yards this year. They did give up five rushing touchdowns over the first three weeks. Mixon has handled most of the backfield, as his backups have combined for 13 touches over five weeks. Mixon should see double-digit carries and an opportunity for a touchdown in week six. He is a mid-range RB2 against the Seahawks.
The Seattle pass catchers are in for a decent matchup in week six. The Bengals have allowed a touchdown in four straight games. They have allowed seven receivers to average around 50 to 60 yards in a game. They haven’t let up any big games but have solid outings for fantasy receivers. DK Metcalf can break the Bengals secondary with his size and speed. He is valued as WR2 in week six. Tyler Lockett is playing a little boom/bust this season with just one game over ten fantasy points. He is a WR3 that you flex in a decent matchup.
The biggest question is whether or not the Seahawks plan to get Jaxon Smith-Njigba the ball in better ways. He has 12 receptions for 62 yards on the year. His air yards and ADOT are ranked 98th in the league this year. Granted, the Seahawks have talent above him, but he should be seeing the ball downfield more. He is just outside my top 60 receivers since the trust factor is not that, nor do I think Seattle will do enough in the passing game to get him the ball better. A three-man committee runs the Seattle tight end room. Noah Fant is seeing the targets and has 40 yards in three straight games. The Bengals allow the third most fantasy points to tight ends this year. They have allowed a touchdown in four of five games this season. Fant is a low-end TE2 that has some upside in this matchup.
The Bengals receivers are in a fantastic situation in week six. Seattle gives receivers the fourth most fantasy points per game this year. Before the week four game vs. the Giants, Seattle allowed four receivers over 100 yards and five touchdowns. After a fantastic week five, we must like the Bengals pass catchers in week six. JaMarr Chase thrived without Tee Higgins for a three-touchdown day. I’d expect Burrow to continue to feed Chase with or without Higgins on the field. He is a WR1 in week six. Tee Higgins has a rib injury that forced him to miss week five. This status for week six is treading in the right direction. If he does play, it’s unlikely that the Bengals will target him much, but he is more of a decoy on the field. He would likely be a borderline WR3 at best if he plays.
Tyler Boyd again didn’t perform, with one of the big two receivers missing in the lineup. He has been under 60 yards in each game this year. Seattle is a decent matchup for slot receivers, and Boyd has run the third most slot snaps. Boyd is a WR5 in this matchup that I don’t feel comfortable starting, even as a flex play. Trenton Irwin did step up with eight receptions for 60 yards in week five. I’d likely leave him outside my top 60 receivers with Higgins returning. I can’t trust a Bengals tight end, even Irv Smith, as a top-24 tight end for week six.
San Fran 49ers vs Cleveland Browns
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Cleveland Browns Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -8.5) & Over/Under 37
Identifying the Game Script
The 49ers and the Browns haven’t faced off since the 2019 season. The 49ers would win in blowout fashion, 31-3 over the Browns. The 49ers were supposed to have a real test in week five but blew out the Cowboys. The Browns were on bye but are looking to rebound from a bad loss to the Ravens. The Browns will be without their star quarterback on Sunday, which does bring down the whole offense against a strong 49ers defense. The 49ers offense has yet another test as the Browns are an elite defense, so we’ll see who is the better unit. This should be a close game, but I said that about the 49ers game last week.
Brock Purdy said in week five let me put the team on my back. He did just that with 250 yards and four touchdowns. It was the first time he had all his weapons on the field together. The Browns are a tough matchup, as they have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They played some of the worst quarterbacks in three weeks: Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, and an injured Joe Burrow. Even in a tough matchup, Purdy can thrive with his pass catchers around him. He is second in the league in YPA, and Purdy should continue to push the ball downfield. You should be able to start Purdy with some confidence in week six. He is a high-end QB2.
DeShaun Watson is to miss week six due to an injury. PJ Walker will start in week six. The 49ers allow the third fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. The 49ers have only allowed one quarterback over one passing touchdown through five games. PJ Walker has had chances over his career to start but has barely been successful for fantasy. He is outside the top 24 quarterbacks.
For the 49ers backfield, Christian McCaffrey should continue to eat in fantasy. He has a touchdown in each game, with eight overall in five games. The Browns are an elite unit ranked in the top five vs. fantasy running backs, and they haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown on the season. So, something is going to break before this game is over. CMC proved he can provide strong fantasy games even in a tough matchup. He is an RB1, no questions asked. Elijah Mitchell will likely miss this game, so enter Jordan Mason, who had ten carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. He is an RB4 who may get some garbage time if things get out of hand in week six.
The Browns backfield will be one to watch since they were a full-blown committee in week four. The 49ers have been solid vs. fantasy running backs this year. They haven’t allowed a rusher over 55 yards this season. The 49ers have allowed at least four plus receptions to running backs in each game this year. This is ideal for starter Jerome Ford, who handled the third down work and saw most of the early downs in week four. Since week two, Ford has seen 13 targets in the passing game. Ford should lead in carries but be the main focus on passing downs, especially with PJ Walker at quarterback. He is a borderline RB2. I think Pierre Strong and Kareem Hunt will be involved in the offense, but how much is the question? Kareem Hunt is the RB2 on the team. While Strong likely won’t come in that much unless the team is losing badly, which is possible. Both running backs are outside my top 50 running backs for week six.
The 49ers pass catches are elite options in fantasy this year. They do have a challenging task in week six. The Browns have barely allowed a 60-yard receiver outside George Pickens’ 72-yard touchdown bomb. They also have only allowed one receiving touchdown on the season. For Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, you are looking at two receivers who should finish as WR2s in this matchup. Aiyuk is the downfield threat that has seen six-plus targets with 50 yards in most games. Samuel is a true weapon that is being used all over the place on the field. No other receiver falls into the top 60 for week six. George Kittle is probably the easiest matchup, and the Browns are top 10 vs. fantasy tight ends. They were dominant through three weeks but then let Mark Andrew throw up 80 yards and two touchdowns. George Kittle is the ultimate boom/bust TE1 you must roll out there.
The Brown’s pass catchers will all be lower with PJ Walker at quarterback. The 49ers are a little easier on fantasy receivers this year. They have allowed a receiver to score in back-to-back games. For the most part, they hold receivers in check for fantasy. Amari Cooper should see six-plus targets even with PJ Walker in this matchup. Due to his quarterback situation, he is borderline a WR3 in week six.
Elijah Moore, I’m interested to see him coming off the bye to see if the team figured out how to get him in the open space. He has 29 targets and seven carries over four games. He has yet to break 50 yards, but I’m hoping he can step up off a bye. He is a WR4 with PJ Walker. Donovan Peoples-Jones is not startable as he has yet to produce in fantasy. The 49ers have only allowed one tight end over 30 yards this season. David Njoku had his first good game in week four but should likely only be a high-end TE2 in this matchup.
Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Hard Rock Stadium
- Weather – Sunny with possible thunderstorms
- What Vegas is saying – Line (MIA -13.5) & Over/Under 47.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Panthers and the Dolphins have not played each other since the 2021 season. The Dolphins would win in blowout fashion over the Panthers 33-10. The Panthers couldn’t get things going in a challenging game vs. Detroit, losing 42-24. The Dolphins handled business at home over the Giants as their offense rebounded from their week four loss. The Dolphins may have lost DeVon Achane, but they have a good rushing unit that should be running all over the Panthers terrible run defense in week six. We’ll have to see if the Panthers passing offense can get going against a favorable secondary in Miami. Unfortunately, this game may be very one-sided by halftime.
Byrce Young finally had his first good game of his rookie season. It wasn’t all pretty with two interceptions, but he made up for it with 240 yards and three touchdowns. Most of Bryce Young’s production would come in garbage time in the second half of his week five game. Young plays the Dolphins, who have been in the bottom ten in stopping fantasy quarterbacks. Most of that production was given up to Josh Allen in week four. The Dolphins don’t let up as much as it shows on paper. They have allowed three passing touchdowns total in four other games. I’m not expecting Young to repeat this week five performance. He is a borderline QB2 that you could start in Superflex leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa continues to be that boom/bust quarterback in fantasy. He has gone under 21 fantasy points in the last two weeks, which could concern fantasy owners. This is what you will get with this offense, but perhaps the injury to Achane may ramp up the passing attack. The Panthers are an average matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed five passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. They have kept all but one passer under 250 passing yards this year. Part of that is because the Panthers are so bad against the run that many quarterbacks don’t feel the need to throw as much. Tua should still be a QB1 in week six despite the odds.
We may see a switch in the starting running backs for the Panthers backfield. Miles Sanders is out for week six, so Chuba Hubbard will get the start. Hubbard is converting 37% of his carries for either a first down or a touchdown, while Sanders is converting only 14% of his carries. Hubbard is the more attractive option in fantasy football and should see most of the backfield. Miami’s run defense can be beaten, and Hubbard should be able to see well over 60 rushing yards. Hubbard is an excellent high-end RB3 that you can flex.
For the Dolphins backfield, Raheem Mostert takes back the starting job after DeVon Achane lands on the IR. Mostert has had 12-plus fantasy points in four of five games this season. He had two great games before Achane joined the active lineup. The Panthers allow the second most fantasy points to running backs this year. They have allowed a 90-yard rusher in three straight games and multiple touchdowns in four of five games. Mostert should be a locked and loaded RB1 in week six. I don’t see anyone taking most of the groundwork away from him in this matchup. Jeff Wilson may be back in this matchup, but there has been no confirmation. He is likely not on the starting radar in his first game. Salvon Ahmed would probably be the primary backup. Ahmed has solid speed that could make him an interesting deep sleeper in week six. I have him just outside my top 50 running backs.
Adam Thielen leads this young Panthers pass catchers this season. He has double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. He has 20-point games in two of the last three outings. The Dolphins are a decent matchup regarding yardage, but they have only given up one receiving touchdown in four of the five games they played. Thielen has produced the last four weeks with eight-plus targets during that span. Thielen should be a WR2, and you should feel confident that he plays well for you. DJ Chark has caught a touchdown in two of three games but is more of a boom/bust receiver. He is just outside the top 60 receivers. Rookie Jonathan Mingo saw seven targets coming off a missed week four. He has six targets over his last three starts and had his best game of the year in week five. He has sleeper appeal in week six as a WR5. Hayden Hurst has not done well since week one. He is outside the top 24 tight ends.
The Dolphins pass catchers continue to work through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They combined 19 targets for 216 yards and two touchdowns in week five. It’s clear these two are the main focus of the offense, and they should be. Chase Claypool just got traded to the team, but let’s see him on the field before we talk start/sit with him. The matchup is somewhat decent for this dynamic duo. The Panthers have allowed a 75-yard receiver and a touchdown in four straight games. The Panthers secondary is young, so I don’t think Miami will have much of a problem. Tyreek Hill is a WR1, while Waddle is a WR2. The tight end position is favorable, but Durham Smythe went an entire game in week five without a catch. He is outside the top 24.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Everbank Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (JAC -4.0) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
We have our first divisional rematch of the season between the Colts and Jaguars. They faced off in week one as the Jaguars came out hot to start the season with a 31-21 over the young Colts team. Compared to week one, these teams are headed in different directions. Even with an injury to Anthony Richardson, the Colts won a close divisional game for first place in the division. The Jaguars won big over the Bills in London as they look forward to the rematch with the Colts. We get a Gardner Minshew revenge game that should be great. The Jaguars run must take advantage of a weaker Colts run defense. The Colts seem like a better overall team than when these teams faced off in week one.
Gardner Minshew is back as the starting quarterback for the Colts as Anthony Richardson lands on the IR. Unlike when Minshew last saw time in the Eagles offense and did great, he hasn’t been that great for fantasy this year. Minshew had 15 fantasy points in week three, but the run game was the key to success. The Jaguars are a bottom-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks in 2023. The Jaguars have allowed a 280-yard passer and two passing touchdowns in three of the last four games. Even Anthony Richardson finished as a QB1 last time vs. the Jaguars. I think Minshew will need to throw the ball often if he wants to be successful for fantasy. He is a mid-range QB2 that is great for Superflex leagues.
Trevor Lawrence continues to be a mediocre fantasy quarterback this season. He has three straight games averaging 17 fantasy points. He has not thrown for two passing touchdowns since week one when they played the Colts. The Colts seem to have tightened up their secondary with just one passing touchdown over the last three weeks. They have allowed two passers over 260 yards during that span. We can expect a similar outing to what Lawrence showed us last week. I think he’ll get yardage but likely miss out on touchdowns. Lawrence is a borderline QB1 in week six.
For the Colts running backs, it will be a tough matchup. The Jaguars allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season. Just two rushers have over 50 yards against the Jaguars this season. They shut down the Colts’ run game last time, but neither Jonathan Taylor nor Zach Moss were playing. We were shocked when Moss handled most of the carries and had a monster outing in week five. Taylor only played 15% of the snaps and didn’t do much in that game.
Taylor is expected to play more in his second game, but is it a 50/50 split, or does he take his job back? I hope Taylor leads the backfield and sees opportunity in the passing game. Minshew loves to throw to his back. Zack Moss has ten targets, and nine of them were from Minshew. Taylor is likely a low-end RB2 who will need the passing volume to finish there. Zack Moss would probably see some groundwork, as I don’t think you can just go away from what he has been doing. He is a mid-range RB3 in week six. I won’t be surprised if Moss handles all the work again.
For the Jaguars backfield, Travis Etienne has impressed me this season. He has almost 500 all-purpose yards in five games this season. The last time he played the Colts, they had an 18-point outing for fantasy. He sees most of the backfield to himself and more red zone work each week. His role as the workhorse back is pretty safe based on how he is playing. The Colts have allowed just one rusher over 60 yards since week one. They have, in the last two weeks, allowed three rushing touchdowns. I expect the Jaguars to win this game early, allowing Etienne to see a significant workload on the ground again. Etienne should be an RB1 in week six.
For the Colts pass catchers, they have a favorable match-up in week six. The Jaguars have been destroyed by receivers with five receiving touchdowns in the last three games. They also have allowed three 100-yard receivers in that span. Michael Pittman had a fantastic game in week one against this secondary with 97 yards and a touchdown. Pittman has always produced when playing the Jaguars. We’ve seen an uptake in passing when Minshew is on the field. Pittman is a high-end WR2 in week six. Josh Downs is going to be interesting for this game. In about two games with Minshew, he has 18 receptions and 191 receiving yards. He was prominent in week five with 97 yards. Downs is a borderline WR3 that you could flex in week six. Alec Pierce and the Colts TEs are not producing enough to trust them in starting lineups.
The Jaguars pass catchers came alive in week five. Chrisitan Kirk had 78 receiving yards, Calvin Ridley had 122 yards, and Zay Jones caught a touchdown. The last time they played the Colts, Ridley and Jones had big days in fantasy, while Kirk had one catch for nine yards. The Colts have been a bottom-ten unit against fantasy receivers this year. They have allowed a 100-yard receiver in four of five games this season. After giving up four touchdowns in the first two weeks, they only had one in the last three games. Calvin Ridley is back on top among the Jaguars receivers. He should be ranked as a strong WR2 with an upside in this matchup. The Colts haven’t allowed much to opposing slot receivers, but Christian Kirk will play more outside without Zay Jones in this game. Kirk should be a high-end WR3 in week six.
Evan Engram had his first down game of the season. He still managed eight targets but only saw 28 yards. Before the week, he had 45-plus yards in each game. The Jaguars allowed Engram five receptions for 49 yards in their first matchup. They have allowed one other tight end over 40 yards and haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position. Engram sees a good target share that should land him back as a TE1 again.
New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ NRG Stadium
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (NO -1.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Saints and the Texans played each other was in the 2019 season. The Saints would win a high-scoring game, 30-28, at home over the Texans. The Saints rebounded thanks to an outstanding defense taking down the Patriots. The Texans came close but couldn’t pull it off on the road over the Falcons. This game could be a lower-scoring game as both defenses have some elite players that will make it difficult for the offense. The Saint’s run offense may be critical for this matchup, as the Texan’s run defense is struggling this year. I wouldn’t expect big numbers out of either of these teams in week six.
Derek Carr had his best game of 2023 with 19 fantasy points. Carr has dealt with a shoulder injury that has limited him this season. He has thrown for under 200 passing yards in three straight games now. Carr has a tougher match, as the Texans have a solid secondary. Seeing the Texans give up 300 yards to Desmond Ridder in week five was surprising. They still have only allowed three passing touchdowns this season. If Carr’s shoulder is feeling better, I could see him throwing for higher numbers, but I don’t see him being able to score big fantasy numbers in this game. Carr is a borderline QB2 for the week.
CJ Stroud cooled down in week five after being on fire the last three weeks. Stroud still managed to throw for 250 yards and threw a touchdown. The Falcons are a tough defense, just like the Saints are in week six. The Saints are in the top 10 against fantasy quarterbacks this year. They haven’t allowed a 260-yard passer on the season. Outside of their three touchdowns to the Bucs, the Saints have allowed just two passing touchdowns to four other quarterbacks. They haven’t faced anyone that great, but you could argue that Stroud is the best they will play to date. Stroud is the real deal and showed he can produce even in a tough matchup. He should finish as a high-end QB2 in week six.
The Saints backfield has a favorable matchup that will be key for this game script. The Texans have allowed a 70-yard rusher in three of five games this season. They started the season with five rushing touchdowns but haven’t given up a rushing touchdown in the last two weeks. They have also shown to give up some passing value, with four straight games with four-plus receptions. Alvin Kamara has been solid in his first two games back on the season with 14 plus fantasy points. Kamara should continue to be the workhorse back for the Saints and finish with another strong game. Kamara is a high-end RB2 in week six. Kendre Miller saw some action in week five with 12 carries. Most of those carries did come late in the game when they were ahead. He did have four receptions for 53 yards in the first half of that game, which is interesting. If Miller can continue to see some passing value, he can become a relevant player for fantasy. He is a RB4 in this favorable week six game.
The Texans backfield has a tough match-up in week six. The Saints ranked third against fantasy running backs this year. They haven’t allowed a rusher over 65 rushing this season. Fantasy running backs haven’t scored against the Saints. Dameon Pierce handles the bulk of the backfield with 60% of the team’s carries. Pierce has eight-plus fantasy points in the last three games. Pierce is built based on insane carry share in this offense. He is running a 2.9 YPC on the season and hasn’t run over 4.0 YPC in a game this year. Due to his volume in the offense, Pierce is a high-end RB3 that you could start in the flex. It’s not the best flex option you could make in week six. Pierce would likely need a touchdown or passing volume to make his fantasy day.
The Saints pass catchers have struggled with Derek Carr’s injury in the lineup. Chris Olave has been hurt the most as he has been the deep threat for the team, but the Saints aren’t throwing deep. Olave was saved with a touchdown in week five, but he only has 16 yards in two games. The Texans allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers this season. The Texans have only allowed two receivers over 60 yards and just one receiving touchdown on the season. Based on how this Saints offense is working right now, Olave is not being schemed well to get the ball that fits his skill sets right now. In a tough match, he is a low-end WR2 in week six.
Michael Thomas continues to be Mr. Consistent with his yardage this year. He has 50 yards in each game and at least four receptions. Thomas should continue to see this type of work in the game against the Texans. Thomas is a high-end WR4 with a nice floor play at the flex spot. Rashid Shaheed isn’t seeing the big plays we saw in week one, and he is outside the top 60 in this matchup. The Saint’s tight ends are a mess, and it’s best to avoid that even in a favorable matchup in week six.
The Texan’s pass catchers don’t have the easiest matchup against the Saints secondary. They have allowed just one receiver over 80 yards on the season. They have allowed many receivers in that 40 to 50-yard range. Nico Collins rotates excellent and bad games, and this one looks to be a good game for him. Tank Dell is out for week six due to a concussion, which will help throw targets back at Collins. If Collins can see nine-plus targets, he will produce on the field. Collins is a low-end WR2 that should be fine. Bob Woods in the slot will hopefully see more targets without Dell on the field. He is a WR5 in week six.
Filling in for Tank Dell is either John Metchie or Xavier Hutchinson. John Metchie would need to play the slot, pushing Woods to the outside, or Xavier Hutchinson will keep Woods in the slot. Noah Brown may also come back in this game. Dalton Schultz was the player that benefited when Dell and Wood got hurt last week. He saw a season-high ten targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Saints allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Saints haven’t played too many solid tight ends. Schultz could be the best one they have faced yet. Schultz is likely a mid-range TE2 in week six.
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 pm @ Allegiant Stadium
- Weather – Indoors : )
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LV -2.5) & Over/Under 41.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Patriots and the Raiders played each other during the 2022 season. The Raiders would win at home 30-24 over the Patriots. The Patriots continued to look terrible as they were shut out against the Saints. The Raiders won a big game on MNF over the Green Bay Packers. This is an easier matchup for this Patriots team, but it’s hard to trust any of them based on their recent performances. The Raiders key to success will be to use Josh Jacobs against that bad Patriots run defense. This game is very unpredictable for our fantasy teams.
Mac Jones has as many fantasy points in the last four games as he did in week one. Jones just seems to get worse in each game as the season progresses. Jones also has been benched in the last two games after poor performances. He finally has a matchup that is a bit more favorable in the quarterback position. The Raiders have allowed two-plus touchdowns to quarterbacks in four of five games this season. They have only allowed one quarterback over 250 passing yards on the season. While it’s a good matchup, Jones can’t be trusted in starting lineups. He is outside my top 24 quarterbacks in week six.
Jimmy Garoppolo is not having a great season in fantasy. He has more interceptions than touchdowns on the season. The Patriots are a top-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks. They have given up, on average, just one passing touchdown per game. They have allowed just one passer, barely over 250 passing yards. Jimmy G is getting a fun revenge game against the Patriots, but I don’t see much upside in this play. He is likely a borderline QB2 in fantasy.
The Patriots backfield continues to be a split workload between Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke Elliott. Stevenson’s value heading into the season was based on his ability in the passing game, which thrived last year. He only averages three targets per game and has three more than Zeke Elliott this year. Both running backs are running under 4.0 YPC on the season. The Raiders are a solid matchup, as they have allowed a 50-yard rusher in every game his year. Hopefully, the Patriots can run the ball efficiently or get Stevenson back as a threat in the passing game. Zeke continues to take work away from Stevenson, especially in passing downs and two-minute offense. Stevenson is a borderline RB2 in this matchup. Since Zeke continues to carve into the Patriot’s offense, he should be a low-end RB3.
The Raiders backfield continues to run through Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is playing over 70 of the carries and snaps for this backfield. Jacobs is playing terribly with his 2.9 YPC on the season. He averages 15 carries per game, which is great for a RB1. His passing volume has been high this year, as he leads the league in receptions and targets. The Patriots run defense comes and goes in terms of stepping up against opposing running backs. They have given up a rushing touchdown in four straight games. Great news for Jacobs is that the Patriots have given up five receptions to backs in each game this year. He is a low-end RB1 for week six.
For the Patriots pass catchers, there is almost no one we should be starting here, but the matchup is decent. The Raiders have allowed six receiving touchdowns on the season and five receivers over 70 receiving yards. At this point of the season, the only receiver worth mentioning is Kendrick Bourne, who has seen the most consistent work in the offense. His deep-threat playstyle should be able to produce against this Raiders secondary. The Raiders have allowed big plays downfield, which is Bourne’s specialty. He is a WR5 with upside in week six. You’d have to be desperate at your flex spot to have him starting.
Hunter Henry is the only pass catcher I’d return to in this matchup. The Raiders haven’t allowed a tight end over 50 yards this year, but Henry has a connection with Jones. Henry does have 50 yards in three of five games this year. He should be a mid-range TE2 in week six.
For the Raiders pass catchers, they continue to run through Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Like Jimmy G, Meyers is getting a revenge game, as the Patriots could use him right now. Meyers has produced in every game that Jimmy G has been his quarterback. He is averaging ten targets, 80 yards, and a touchdown when he plays with Jimmy G. The Patriots are a decent matchup as they don’t allow big performances but decent plays. They have allowed a receiving touchdown in four of five games this year. They have only allowed one receiver over 70 yards this year. I’m trusting Meyers moving forward. He is a big part of this Raiders passing attack. In week six, Meyers should be a high-end WR3 and a strong flex option.
Davante Adams had a down week, but expect him to bounce back. He continues to show he is an elite player for fantasy. He is a WR1 in week six. No one else is standing out, but Hunter Renfrow seems to be losing his grip on the third receiver spot. It was nice to see the rookie Michael Mayer have two catches for 39 yards, but he is not trustworthy yet for the tight end position.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAR -7.0) & Over/Under 48.5
Identifying the Game Script
This is our last divisional game of the weekend between the Cardinals vs. the Rams. In the previous five games, their combined average score has been 46.2. Last season, these two teams split their head-to-head matchups. The Cardinals fought hard but couldn’t overcome JaMarr Chase’s three-touchdown performance. The Rams also couldn’t keep up with the Eagles high-power offense in a loss in week five. The Rams must take advantage of the Cardinals weak secondary to win this matchup. For the Cardinals offense to get going, Dobbs must do much of the work himself and use his legs in a favorable matchup. I’d expect this to be a close-scoring game at the end of the day.
Joshua Dobbs has impressed in fantasy; unfortunately, week five was his worst game since week one, but he still managed 14 fantasy points. Dobbs didn’t have the rushing floor he showed in weeks two to four. The Rams are a good matchup for Dobbs to get back on track. In the last two weeks, the Rams have allowed 50-plus rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. They have given up almost as many QB rushing touchdowns(3) as passing touchdowns(4). I’m not expecting a big performance from Dobbs, but he should be able to return to the 20-point range in week six. He is a min-range QB2 if his rushing floor returns.
Matthew Stafford finally got his first 20-point fantasy week of the season in week five. Stafford has his full set of weapons now back with Cooper Kupp. Stafford hasn’t put together a big game with yards and touchdowns this season. I think this could be the week Stafford goes off in fantasy. The Cardinals allowed quarterbacks the fourth most fantasy points per game this season. The Cardinals have allowed a 250 passer in the last four games and have given up 11 total touchdowns to the quarterback position. When Stafford was healthy in 2021, he put up almost 600 passing yards and five touchdowns against the Cardinals. Stafford should finish as QB1 in week six.
The Cardinals backfield will have a new face as the starter. James Conner is now on the IR and will miss four weeks. This leaves the Cardinals backfield to Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demercado, and newly signed Tony Jones. Ingram is dealing with his injuries but will play in this week six matchup. Ingram has been a terrible pro, averaging 1.9 YPC on 39 carries over two seasons. Jones is too new that he may only see minimal work in this matchup. Emari Demercado filled in when Conner left the game in week five. He managed 57 total yards in that game. The Rams allowed a 60-yard rusher in every game this year but only have allowed two rushing touchdowns. They also have not allowed much in the passing game this year. If both Ingram and Demercado split the work, I don’t want either starting in week six. They would both be low-end RB3 at best. Demercado will likely finish with a better day if he can see some passing value in this game.
Kyren Williams has taken over the Rams backfield in 2023. Williams has 17 plus fantasy points in three of five games this year. Williams seems to be a little touchdown-dependent for fantasy since he has averaged only seven fantasy points when he doesn’t score. The Cardinals allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in the last three games. They don’t give up rushing touchdowns, but they have allowed a running back to score a receiving touchdown in four of five games this year. WIlliams should have a good chance at getting a touchdown in week six. My one concern is that he has seen his targets drop each week, which may never be high with Stafford throwing to his receivers. He has been fantastic this year and should be an RB1 in this favorable matchup.
The Cardinals wide receivers do have a tough matchup in week six. The Rams allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers this year. They haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a receiver since week one. They only allowed two receivers over 65 yards this year: JaMarr Chase and AJ Brown. Where does that leave Hollywood Brown? Well, Brown has been super consistent for us in fantasy, a reliable option. Brown has seen double-digit targets in three of the last four games. In that period, he also has no fewer than 50 yards. Brown is just outside the top 24 receivers as a high-end WR3. You should feel confident putting him in your flex spot.
Michael Wilson followed up his monster week four game with a poor week five outing. His targets are inconsistent, which makes him a challenging play in week six. Wilson is just outside my top 60 receivers this week. Rondale Moore‘s name reappears due to the injuries at the running back position. What is more interesting about him is that he has two games with 50 rushing yards this year. Moore could be used more as a running back in this matchup. I like Moore as a potential sleeper/low-end WR5 in week six. Perhaps the best matchup for this offense is the tight end position. The Rams allow the second most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Rams allowed Dallas Goedert to have a monster game in week five. They have allowed three touchdowns to a tight end over the last two weeks. Zach Ertz has had eight fantasy points in three of five games and sees a significant target share each week. He is a borderline TE1 in week six.
The Rams pass catchers are a favorite of mine in fantasy this year. They have a solid matchup with the Cardinals secondary, as they have allowed six receivers over 60 yards in a game this year. Until JaMarr Chase’s big week five, they only allowed one receiving touchdown to a receiver. I expect the Rams to be able to throw every which way on the Cardinals secondary due to their elite receiving group. Cooper Kupp’s first game back was peppered with 12 targets and produced over 100 yards. He is back as a WR1. Puka Nacua proved he can still provide WR1 numbers even with Kupp on the field. He has seen double-digit targets in four of five games. I expect those targets to be high still, and he should be ranked as a borderline WR1 in week six. Tutu Atwell caught a touchdown in week five that saved his fantasy day. He saw his lowest targets on the season with Kupp back in the lineup. Atwell was having a nice start to the season but falls back into that WR5 range with some upside. He is no longer an every-week flex play for now.
The Cardinals have been in the top 10 at stopping the tight end position in fantasy. They have allowed three tight ends over 40 yards but haven’t given up a touchdown to the position. Over his career, Tyler Higbee has only averaged 35 yards against the Cardinals. He also saw his lowest target share of the season in week six. Higbee will likely not see more than five targets in any given week. He is a mid-range TE2 in week six.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Jets
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ MetLife Stadium
- Weather – Rain!
- What Vegas is saying – Line (PHI -7.0) & Over/Under 41
Identifying the Game Script
The Eagles and the Jets have a very competitive head-to-head series. JUST Kidding! The Jets have never beaten the Eagles in an NFL game. Yes, it’s true! They last played in 2021, as the Eagles won 33-18 over the Jets. The Eagles continued their undefeated season after they took care of business on the road. The Jets finally pulled off a win over the Broncos thanks to their defense and run game. This is going to be a wet and rainy game for week six. The Eagles will have to expose the Jets poor run defense and use Goedert against the worst TE defense. The Jets will need to step up in the passing game in a favorable matchup if they want any chance to win this game.
Jalen Hurts continues to play at a high level, with three of his last four games over 25 fantasy points. He gets a rainy matchup with the Jets that should fit his skills to succeed. The Jets have allowed over 30 rushing yards to a quarterback in three of five games. They have barely allowed a 250-yard passer this year, but that’s not how Hurts wins us fantasy games. Hurts should have no problem finishing as a QB1 again in week six. I’d expect another two-touchdown performance in this matchup against the Jets.
Zach Wilson couldn’t pull off another 20-point fantasy outing against the Broncos in week five. He wasn’t all that bad, but he didn’t do anything to trust him moving forward. He has another great matchup against the Eagles, who are in the bottom ten vs. fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed three passers over 290 passing yards and three multi-touchdown performances. This game is supposed to be rainy, so I can’t expect much from Wilson. He has just four touchdowns in five games and doesn’t offer a big enough rushing floor to trust him. Wilson is outside the top 24 quarterbacks again in week six.
The Eagle backfield seems to have changed with D’Andre Swift and Kenny Gainwell. They split the work by quarter in the last few games, but they switched every few drives in week five, with Swift having more drives. This backfield has a solid matchup against the Jets in week six. The Jets have allowed a 60-yard rusher in four straight games. They have only allowed one rushing touchdown on the season. Swift is seeing 14-plus carries in each game since week two, and he has gained my trust. He also has seen ten targets over the last two games, which adds to his value. The Jets gave up seven receptions for 90 yards to the Broncos last week. Swift is a borderline RB1 in week six. Kenny Gainwell should see work, too, but he hasn’t run well with the carries he has been given. He has run under 4.0 YPC this year. I think only a touchdown would make his fantasy day. He is an RB4 in this matchup.
The Jets backfield is slowly turning back into Breece Hall‘s job again. He played his most snaps of the season and had over 20 carries. Hall looks back in prime form, but he comes face to face with the best team in the league vs. running backs. The Eagles have allowed just one rushing touchdown and kept running backs under 60 yards. While they haven’t faced anyone to Hall’s level, it’s still a tough matchup. I expect Hall to lead this backfield on the early downs and continue to grow on third down and in the two-minute offense. Currently, Michael Carter is handling that role in the offense. Hall should be valued as a mid-range RB2. Michael Carter has a role but doesn’t do much with it to produce fantasy numbers. Dalvin Cook was third in snaps and has not produced this year. These running backs are outside the top 50 backs in week six.
The Eagles pass catchers have been great, led by AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Unfortunately, they haven’t been great together simultaneously. They finished just two of the five games with over ten fantasy points together. The Jets are a tough matchup, as they ranked second in stopping fantasy receivers this year. They haven’t allowed a touchdown since week one. They haven’t played any elite receiver groups in the last three weeks, but we’ve seen elite receivers go over 100 yards against them. AJ Brown is mostly a low-end WR1 in this match, while DeVonta Smith is a mid-range WR2 in week six. I don’t expect them to produce as they usually do.
Dallas Goedert does have a favorable matchup in week six. The Jets allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in the last four games. Goedert is coming off an elite performance where he had over 100 yards and a touchdown. Goedert may be the best pass catcher in this fantastic matchup on the day. His scoring chances are high, and he should finish as a TE1.
The Jets pass catchers have a terrific matchup in week six as the Eagles allow the third most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed eight receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in five games. The Jets passing attack is not that great, and the fact it will rain doesn’t help the cause. Garrett Wilson is doing his best, with Zach Wilson as his quarterback. He has three of the last four games over 50 yards on the season. He has not scored in the previous three weeks. Wilson is a decent flex option that you can play in week six. He should be ranked as a high-end WR3 against the Eagles.
Allen Lazard has been okay in the small chances that he gets but is just outside my top 60 receivers. He does have some deep sleeper appeal, but not enough to trust him in a lineup. Tyler Conklin also has a solid match-up in week six. The Eagles have given up 40 yards to a tight end in three of five games this year. Conklin has been a consistent option for the tight-end position. He has 50 yards in three of the last four games. Conklin has looked like a solid streaming tight end. He could end up as a high-end TE2.
Detriot Lions vs Tampa Bay Bucs
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ Raymond James Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -3.5) & Over/Under 42.5
Identifying the Game Script
The Lions and the Bucs last faced off during the 2021 season. The Bucs would win in a blowout fashion, 47-7, over the Lions. The Lions offense looked unstoppable even without Amon St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs missing week five. The Bucs had a bye week, but they laid the hammer down on the Saints the last time they played. This game will determine which defense can hold strong vs. the opposing offense. Both defenses are fantastic at stopping the run, so this could be a game of passing. This game will come down to who can defend and run the ball best to win.
Jared Goff stepped up for fantasy football as the touchdowns fell his way in week five. The matchup vs. the Bucs is challenging since they are ranked in the top 10 against fantasy quarterbacks. Goff could be in for a tough outing since he hasn’t performed well on the road. Goff is averaging 15 fantasy points and one passing touchdown in away games. He is much better at home, as he averages 27 fantasy points and two passing touchdowns in home games. Many of Goff’s touchdowns in week five were under 5 yards, so it’s possible he got lucky on those plays. I think Goff is a mid-range QB2 in week six.
Baker Mayfield is back after having his week off on a bye. He is coming back to a favorable matchup in week six. The Lions have given up at least two touchdowns to the opposing quarterbacks this season. You can throw on them if you can get the ball out on time to the receivers. Mayfield has 20 fantasy points in three of four games this season. The Bucs inability to run the ball will give Mayfield more opportunities in the air against the Lions. He is a low-end QB2 with an upside in week six.
For the Lions backfield, it’s all about David Montgomery right now. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will miss week six. Montgomery is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and has a rushing touchdown in every game he has played. His matchup is slightly tougher as the Bucs rank in the top 10 against fantasy running backs. Outside of D’Andre Swift’s big week three, they have kept running back under 60 yards. They also haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown on the season, so the odds may not be in Montgomery’s favor. Montgomery will see all the work that should be enough to rank him as a low-end RB1. Craig Reynolds had a good week five, but I don’t expect the Lions to be ahead in this game.
T Bucs backfield is led by Rachaad White. Before the bye week, White saw 16 carries and three targets per game. Unfortunately, he was running at a 3.3 YPC on the season. White has been a product of not playing well, but his backups are playing even worse. He has enjoyed being the best of the worst backfield. White gets another tough matchup as the Lions allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They haven’t allowed a rusher over 50 yards this season. The Lions have a great front seven this year. KeShawn Vauhgn did some work in that week’s four games, but I do not think he is a threat to White’s workload either. White should be a high-end RB3 who will do okay based on his opportunity in the offense.
Amon St. Brown missed week five for the Lions pass catchers with an abdomen injury. He is back for week six. The Bucs have given up yardage to receivers this season. In three of four games, they have allowed receivers to produce well over 100 yards in a game. They also had allowed receiving touchdowns the first three weeks before their week four game. St Brown is a low-end WR1.
For the rest of the receivers, you should be able to trust Josh Reynolds. Reynolds has seen over 60 yards in four of five games this season. He is playing as their downfield threat right now in the offense and is doing well. Reynolds should be a high-end WR4, but even that feels too low based on how he has played. Jameson Williams returned to action in week five and caught double his career receptions. He had one reception going into that game. He almost played 50% of the offense in snaps, the most in his career. Williams is a name to keep your eyes on heading into his second game. He is still outside my top 60 receivers and won’t touch any lineups until he proves it.
The Bucs, on paper, look like a great unit against tight ends. They have allowed four tight ends over 30 yards in the first four games but haven’t allowed a touchdown yet. Sam LaPorta continues to look great in the offense and should be locked in as a TE1. Not a concern, but it’s worth noting that he only saw four targets in last week’s game, his lowest of the season. Recently, he suffered a calf injury in practice, and his status could be up in the air this week.
The Buc’s pass catchers will have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for their week six matchup. The Lions have allowed a receiving touchdown in four of five games this year. Over the previous two games, they let up a 90-yard receiver. If the Lions defense can be beat, it’s in their secondary. Godwin and Evans should see six-plus targets and finish as WR2s in week six. Trey Palmer, who plays in the slot, is attractive since the Lions give up slot production. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out with a decent game, but he is still outside the top 60. I’m not trusting Cade Otton in this matchup, even though he has seven fantasy points in two of the last three games.
New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 8:20 pm @ Highmark Stadium
- Weather – Clear Night
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -14.5) & Over/Under 45
Identifying the Game Script
The fake New York rivalry between the Giants and the Bills. The Bills would beat down the Giants 28-14 back in 2019. The Giants looked better overall in week five but still got beat up by the Dolphins. The Bills in London couldn’t overcome London’s fake home team, the Jaguars. The Giants are a hot mess right now, and the Bills just lost a close, so that is a recipe for a blowout on Sunday Night Football. The Giants haven’t been able to stop anyone on the ground, so expect the Bills run game to get going this week. The potential of having Saquon Barkley would help since the Bills defense has been kind in the run game. Unfortunately, this could be an easy, one-sided game.
Tyrod Taylor will get the start for the Giants. It won’t be easy since the Bills allow the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They don’t allow many passing touchdowns and have a league-high eight interceptions. Taylor may be the spark this offense needs, but the offensive line is a mess. He is outside the top 24 quarterbacks in week six unless he can offer a rushing floor to bump up this finish.
Josh Allen has been on fire since week two, as he has been averaging 32 fantasy points per game. The matchup against the Giants isn’t one I’m concerned about. Opposing offense early in the season didn’t have to do too much since their defense dominated. In two of the last three games, they have allowed a 300-yard passer with two passing touchdowns. Josh Allen is an elite option at the quarterback position. He should have no problem doing those same numbers in week six. He is a QB1 in this matchup.
We are still unsure if Saquon Barkley will be back in this game. If Barkley does return, he has a favorable matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are in the bottom ten vs. fantasy running backs this year. They also give up a ton of passing volume to running backs, allowing four plus receptions in four of five games this year. The Bills have given up back-to-back 100-yard rushers so Barkley could return to a great game. He would be considered an RB2 for this matchup. It’s a favorable matchup, but let’s not forget the offensive line has been killed by injuries this year. If Barkley misses, it would be Matt Breida and rookie Eric Gray again. Breida would go from not start-worthy to a low-end RB3 in this matchup. He was still leading the team in snaps and handling the passing down work for the offense. Eric Gray would see some groundwork, but he’d be a low-end RB4 at best if there is no Barkley.
The Bills backfield was shut down in week five as they combined for 15 rushing yards. James Cook didn’t have his best day, as he finished with negative yardage but saw three receptions for 25 yards. The good thing is that Cooks has a great chance to bounce back in week six. The Giants allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a rusher over 70 rushing yards in each game. The Giants also allowed a rushing touchdown in their first five games. Cooks should be able to bounce back in a big way in week six. Cook is locked for an RB1 performance. Damien Harris and Latavious Murray split the work in the offense in week five, but they may have a chance to be productive in a favorable matchup. Murray seems to have a clearer role than Harris in the offense. I think both are likely touchdown-dependent. Murray would be an RB4, and Harris is just outside my top 50.
It’s hard to trust anyone outside Darren Waller for Giants pass catchers. Waller is only trustworthy due to the position that he plays in fantasy. The Bills got beat by the Jaguars receivers in week five after basically shutting down receivers on the season. The injuries in the Bills secondary have made this unit weaker. The Giants receivers in week five all were under 30 receiving yards in the game. Wan’Dale Robinson will likely be a WR5 but probably will not start unless you’re desperate. Everyone else is outside the top 60 receivers in week six.
Darren Waller has been the only option in the Giant’s pass attack that has done anything in fantasy. He managed to see eight receptions for 86 yards in week five. The Bills allow the second-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position in 2023. They barely have allowed one tight end over 40 yards on the season. The Bills defense continues to be injured, so Waller should be fine as a TE1 in week six.
For the Bills pass catchers, it continues to come down to Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, who both play great in fantasy. Diggs has seen double-digit fantasy points in each game this year. Davis has scored a touchdown in four straight games and had his biggest game of the year in week five. The Giants have allowed a receiving touchdown in four consecutive games, with six touchdowns in total given up. They have allowed 100-yard receivers in two of the last three games. The Bills are an elite offense, so expect these receivers to do well. Diggs is a WR1, and Davis is a high-end WR3 in week six.
The Buffalo Bills tight ends continue to swap offensive snaps on the season. Neither seems to be able to pull ahead in the battle to be the starter. Last week, Dawson Knox dominated the snap count and targets in the offense. Dalton Kincaid is in concussion protocol this week, and Knox is battling a wrist injury. The Giants had allowed 50 yards to a tight end in weeks two to four. If they both play, they are low-end TE2s in fantasy. If one were to miss this game, one would bump up to a high-end TE2.