Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Details of the Script
- TNF – 8:15 pm @ GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Weather – Clear Night Skies
- What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -10.5) & Over/Under 47
Identifying the Game Script
We start week six with a divisional game between the Broncos and the Chiefs. This has been a one-sided rivalry as the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in every game since November 15th, 2015. The Broncos are coming off another loss as they let the Jets’ offense go nuts on the ground. The Chiefs handled their business in Minnesota with a win over the Vikings. The Broncos have a tough matchup ahead of them, as the Chief’s defense has been elite this season. If Kelce plays, he and Mahomes have a terrific matchup vs. the Broncos, so they could be in for big outings. I expect this game to be slightly high-scoring, with the Chiefs likely out to an early lead. These two always seem to play each other tough, which should be the case in week six.
Russell Wilson continues to play as a decent QB2 in fantasy with another 20 fantasy point finish. His legs once again came through as they rushed for 49 yards in that game. For how bad Wilson played last year, they averaged 230 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception over two games against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a top-10 unit against fantasy quarterbacks this season but have given up fantasy production over the last two weeks. They have allowed 240 yards and two touchdowns in each of the previous two outings. We’ve seen Thursday night football have some higher-scoring games, and with a weaker run game, the Broncos may rely on the passing attack. Wilson should be able to finish as a high-end QB2.
Patrick Mahomes is coming off a solid week five with 280 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t felt like the elite player we’ve known over the years, but he is still playing at a high level. Mahomes has a fantastic matchup as the Broncos allow the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They have allowed 300 passing yards in three of five games and two passing touchdowns or more in four of five games. Mahomes always seems to have struggled vs. the Broncos, but last year, he put up 600 yards and six touchdowns in two games. With or without Travis Kelce, Mahomes will find ways to produce and rack up fantasy points. He is a QB1 in week six.
The Broncos backfield has turned into a three-man committee for fantasy. The most significant factor is Javante Williams’ health for week six. He looks like he is going to play in this game. If he does, I wouldn’t expect too much from him, as I would rank him as a borderline RB3 in a tough matchup. Speaking of tough matchups, the Chiefs are in the top ten against fantasy running backs this year. They haven’t allowed a rusher over 60 yards this year and haven’t given up a rushing touchdown since week one. They also don’t allow pass-catching backs to produce in the air, with 20 receiving yards being the high of an opposing running back.
The two healthier backs on the team are Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. In week five, McLaughlin was a star for fantasy with double-digit points, but he was still the backup. Perine played his best game of the season with over 90 total yards. He led on the early downs and handled the critical downs like two-minute offense and third downs. McLaughlin saw some work, especially as a receiver, and could produce on limited touches. I expect the Broncos to be behind in this game, which could end the run early. They are low-end RB3s since the Broncos may limit Williams. I don’t care to start any of them, but I’d give McLaughlin the edge to make the most impact.
The Chiefs backfield continues to be led by Isiah Pacheco. He handled most of the groundwork again and saw more opportunities on the goalline. Jerick McKinnon is still the primary third-down/two-minute offense back, but he doesn’t see many opportunities with those snaps. This matchup against the Broncos is favorable as they allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. They have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight games, so I expect this to be another Pacheco week for fantasy. He is a borderline RB1 in week six. McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire average less than six touches per game with minimal production. CEH could see more work in week six due to a short week, but it is likely not fantasy-relevant. They will both be ranked outside the top 50 running backs.
The Broncos pass catchers have a tough matchup as the Chiefs are top 10 vs. fantasy receivers this year. They have been great at holding off outside receivers from producing in fantasy. Their one weakness has been in the slot as they have allowed the slot receiver to produce on the season as we saw Jordan Addison gain 60 yards and a touchdown in week five. This game should benefit Jerry Jeudy, who is still looking for his first blow-up game of the season. Despite missing a game, he is ranked 24th in the league in slot snaps this season. Jeudy is averaging six targets per game and producing about 50 yards in the last three outings. Jeudy should be valued as a low-end WR3 with an upside.
Courtland Sutton failed to produce in week five, with just one catch for 13 yards. It’s a tough matchup since he plays outside, where the Chiefs do shut down outside receivers. Sutton has seen a drop in targets over the last two weeks. I’m still banking on his connection with Wilson, but only as a borderline WR3 in week six. While Marvin Mims has seen over 30% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks, he only has three targets in that time frame. He is off fantasy radars until he can get closer to 50% or start averaging more than two targets per game. We saw Adam Trautman finally do something in fantasy, and he catches a touchdown. The Chiefs matchup is somewhat favorable as they have given up 50 yards in three of the last four games to tight ends. It’s hard to trust one week of production from Trautman as he is, at best, a borderline TE2 for week six.
The Chiefs pass catchers are still a mess and are now dealing again with a Travis Kelce Injury. Kelce is dealing with a low ankle sprain that caused him to miss drives in the second half of the week five game. Reports are that he is going to play in week six. The matchup is fantastic, as the Broncos allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed 60 yards to a tight end in back-to-back games. Kelce would be a tight end one week six.
For the receivers, they have been a headache to consider for fantasy lineups. If you read my week five article, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Justin Watson continue leading the team in snaps and running routes. The only receiver I’m considering starting is Rashee Rice, the young rookie receiver. He continues to make small noises that will eventually get him more playing time this year. The Broncos have allowed eight receivers in five games to gain over 50 receiving yards. I think Rice has proven to be the most trustworthy for fantasy. I’d value him as a mid-range WR4 in this matchup. Every other Chiefs receiver is ranked outside the top 60 in week six.
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