San Fran 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
Details of the Script
- MNF – 8:15 pm @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SF -7.0) & Over/Under 44
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two teams faced off was in the 2021 season. The 49ers would win at home 34-26 over the Vikings. The 49ers took their first-season loss to the Browns with PJ Walker as the quarterback. The Vikings took care of business on the road against a divisional opponent, winning 19-13 over the Bears. The 49ers may need to get their passing game going, as CMC could be out on MNF. The Vikings secondary has allowed opposing passing offenses to thrive against them. The 49ers will look to take full advantage of that. The Vikings are still trying to figure out their offense without Justin Jefferson, as it did not look the same. We hope this will be high-scoring, but it could be an easy one-sided game.
Brock Purdy is coming off the worst game of his NFL career. He was pressured all day by a tough Browns defense that led him to under 200 passing yards and one interception. Purdy has always been a consistent option in fantasy, so expect a rebound. The Vikings are in the bottom ten vs. fantasy quarterbacks this year. They have allowed two-plus touchdowns to four of the six quarterbacks they have faced. The only two quarterbacks who didn’t were two rookie quarterbacks. Without CMC potentially, Brock Purdy could see more opportunities to throw the ball. We all know that Kirk Cousins struggles in primetime, so we could see more opportunities for the 49ers offense. Purdy should be a QB1 in week seven.
Kirk Cousins is terrible in primetime. He is 2-10 in his 12 career games on MNF. Cousins on MNF has averaged 239 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. Without his star receiver, we saw Cousins struggle as he finished with ten fantasy points, the lowest of the season. Cousins has had four games over 20-plus fantasy points this season. The one good thing about Cousins is that he averages two touchdowns in games he loses, which is probably the case here. The 49ers allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. They have allowed only one quarterback to reach two passing touchdowns. Cousins could struggle in primetime. He is, at best, a high-end QB2 due to the massive bye weeks.
The 49ers backfield could be without their star running back in Chrisitan McCaffrey. He is dealing with an oblique injury that forced him to miss practice most of the week. He did practice on Saturday and is questionable for this game. If CMC plays, you must assume he will give you RB1 numbers and start him. It will come down to Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason if he doesn’t play. Mason has been the one who is playing like a CMC backup, as he had done well in garbage time for the 49ers the last two weeks. Mitchell was coming off an injury and hasn’t seen much work this year. I would assume it’s a split backfield between the two. I think Mason would see some of the early downs while Mitchell handles more of the passing work since he is the more productive in that spot. Outside of allowing D’Andre Swift to run crazy over them, the Vikings haven’t let another back over 60 yards this year. This is the 49ers, and they can beat almost every odds thrown their way. Mason would be an RB3 in this matchup, and Elijah Mitchell would be a high-end RB4 if there is no CMC.
The Vikings backfield is back in the control of Alexander Mattison after seeing his snaps rise in week six. While that could have been the team winning, we haven’t seen much of that this year. Alexander Mattison hasn’t been great this year. He is averaging 3.9 YPC but a decent ten fantasy points per game. That is all we can hope for most weeks for the running back position. The 49ers are a tough unit against running backs this year. They allowed their first running back to gain over 60 yards this year, but that was in a closer scoring game, which allowed the Browns to continue running the ball. The Vikings seem to abandon the run pretty often when they are behind. Mattison is, at best, a low-end RB2 with limited upside. Cam Akers saw his fewest touches and snaps of the season as a Viking. He isn’t a big part of the game plan. He is a RB5 at best in week seven.
The 49ers pass catchers will be without their star receiver, Deebo Samuel, for an extended period. This is going to benefit Brandon Aiyuk in the offense greatly. Aiyuk has been excellent this season, with four of five games over 50 yards this year. He should likely see a target increase with Samuel out of the lineup. The matchup is great for the 49ers receivers as they play the Vikings. The Vikings have given up 50 yards to ten different receivers this year. While they have been a little better in recent weeks, they did start the season by giving up five receiving touchdowns in the first three weeks. Since then, it has been only one. They haven’t played many elite receivers in those last three weeks.
Aiyuk should be in line for eight-plus targets in this matchup and finish the week as a WR1 in fantasy football. Jauan Jennings is the next receiver up, but he is still only a high-end WR5 who can be difficult to trust in lineups. The one person who benefited when Samuel left early that week was Ray-Ray McCloud. He saw an increase in playing, where he played more snaps than Jennings. McCloud was slightly used like Samuel, seeing a few targets and getting opportunities to run with the ball. While his production was minimal, he is a deep sleeper in this matchup. Geroge Kittle is another one who will benefit from Samuel not being in the game. Anytime one of the top two receivers misses time, Kittle has seen a target intake. The Vikings have only allowed one tight end over 30 yards this year: Travis Kelce. Kittle is on that level as Kelce and should be in for a boom week. He, of course, is a TE1 in week seven.
The Vikings pass-catchers didn’t see anyone step up with Justin Jefferson off the field. Jordan Addison saw an increase in snaps but finished with 28 yards and a touchdown. KJ Osborn had just 48 yards, and TJ Hockenson finished with 50, which isn’t bad for a tight end. This matchup for the receivers isn’t bad, as the 49ers have allowed five receivers over 60 yards this year. They only have allowed three touchdowns, but they do give up yardage. Jordan Addison should be a fine WR3 in his matchup. He has a touchdown in four of six games, but we’d love to see more targets go his way. KJ Osborn wasn’t bad last week but wasn’t great either. He should be a WR4 in this matchup with some upside in this game.
TJ Hockenson has the worst matchup as the 49ers ranked fourth against fantasy tight ends. They only allowed one tight over 30 yards and haven’t given up a touchdown this year. Depending on how Hockenson plays this game, he may be forced out wide more often, which will help his game. He did lead the team in targets, so he should see a good target share. He should be a TE1 even in this more challenging matchup.