Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Soldier Field
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LV -2.5) & Over/Under 37.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time these two games faced off was in the 2021 season. The Bears on the road would win 20-9 over the Raiders. The Raiders are coming off an easy week over the Patriots but may have lost their quarterback for some time. The Bears did lose their quarterback in mid-game and were forced to use a rookie quarterback in a divisional loss. If the Raiders can get their starting quarterback back in this game, they have a favorable matchup. We’ve seen the Bears let up big yardage to the air and ground, which could be the thing to get the Raiders offense going. The battle of the backups could be a bad game at the end of the day.
Brian Hoyer is getting the start in week seven as Jimmy G is out with an injury. Hoyer hasn’t started a full game since the 2020 season, where he threw for 130 yards and an interception as a Patriot. Hoyer hadn’t played a good game since 2017 when he was with the 49ers, which was like six years ago. Hoyer has good weapons around him to be successful but trusting him is risky. His matchup is fantastic, as the Bears allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed four of six games with two-plus passing touchdowns this year. It’s tough to play Hoyer, but in this bye week/backup QB hell, he is a low-end QB2 that may be worth playing in Superflex leagues due to the matchup.
As Justin Fields has been ruled out for week seven, Tyson Bagent is getting his first career start. Bagent was okay taking over for Fields in week six, as he had 84 yards with a 71% completion rate. Unfortunately, two turnovers by him cost the Bears the game. This matchup with the Raiders is not that great. In the last three weeks, the Raiders have allowed one passing touchdown and kept quarterbacks under 200 yards. Granted, Justin Herbert had two rushing touchdowns, but keeping him under 200 passing yards was really impressive. Bagent has one of the worst offensive lines in football, so he will get pressured all day. This could be a rough day for him as he finished as QB3 in week seven.
The Raiders backfield with Josh Jacobs should be in for a treat with Brian Hoyer as the quarterback. We’ve seen Josh Jacobs the last two weeks see 20-plus carries due to injuries and backup quarterback play. Jacobs also sees volume in the passing game, as he is in the top three in targets and receptions. The Bears allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running back this year. It’s not the rushing, as the Bears haven’t allowed a rusher over 75 yards, but they have allowed the most receiving work in the league to backs. They have allowed four-plus receptions in every game this year. Jacobs should be peppered with targets in this matchup and thrive in week seven. Jacobs should be an RB1 due to the matchup and that he is the workhorse back in this offense.
The Bears backfield will be without Roschon Johnson once again. D’Onta Foreman will be the lead back in this game. Foreman saw all the early downs, goal line, and short yardage last week. Darrnyton Evans also played seeing carries, but he was better as the passing down back in the game. The Raiders have allowed three rushing touchdowns over the last two games. They have allowed four rushers over 60 yards this year. Foreman should see a big workload as they take the pressure off the rookie quarterback. With his workhorse and decent matchup, Foreman should be able to finish as a low-end RB2 in week seven. Evans saw nine carries, but I don’t think he’ll see enough work unless he is used in the passing game. Evans is still just outside my top 50 running backs in week seven.
The Raiders pass-catchers have been solid this year. Jakobi Meyers has thrived with Jimmy G this year. Meyers has the same production as Davante Adams when Jimmy G plays in the game. The last time another quarterback played, Meyers did not do well. Adams was a focus point in the offense when Aidan O’Connell was the quarterback for the team. It’s hard to tell which player Hoyer will lean on in this game. If things work out, Hoyer could make both of them fantasy-relevant. The Bears are better against receivers, as they have only allowed one receiver over 65 yards. Based on this recent production and quarterback play, Adams should be a low-end WR1. Jakobi Meyers without Jimmy G does scare me, but I’ll still rank him as a WR3.
The Bears have allowed four tight ends over 50 yards this year. Tight ends can thrive against the Bears. Rookie tight end Michael Mayer had a breakout game with five receptions for 75 yards this year. Mayer seems to have taken over the starting role from Austin Hooper. It’s still risky to trust him, but when a rookie has gone off this year, they have followed it up with a second great game. Mayer could end up as a TE2 with upside in week seven.
The Bears pass catchers will take a hit with Tyson Bagent as their quarterback. Bagent did target Moore a few times, which is a positive sign in this game. The Raiders have allowed a 70-yard receiver in five straight games. The Raiders have held a receiver without a touchdown the last two weeks after allowing six touchdowns in the first four weeks. DJ Moore should be able to do enough to have a successful game, but I like him more as a low-end WR2. Darnell Mooney hasn’t done much this year. I’d ranked him as a WR5.
Cleveland Browns vs Indianapolis Colts
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Lucas Oil Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (CLE -3.5) & Over/Under 41
Identifying the Game Script
The Browns and the Colts last played during the 2020 season. The Browns would win big over the Colts 32-23. The Browns also would win big in week six as they took down the undefeated 49ers with the help of their defense. The Colts continued this season without their star quarterback, and Gardner Minshew couldn’t find his mania to beat down his former team. If the Colts offense can rebound, they will be in a tough spot as the Browns defense continues to show how elite they are this season. It could be a bad day for the Colts. Depending on who plays quarterback, the Browns may lean on the run, which they should. The Colts run defense has not been great, so we could see the rush game thrive. This game is likely a lower-scoring game.
Gardner Minshew is looking to rebound after an awful week-six game. While he managed to put up 300 yards, he also threw three interceptions in that game. He is going to have a tough time rebounding against the Browns. The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. They have allowed just one quarterback to gain over 200 passing yards and four passing touchdowns on the season. They are coming off a big win over the 49ers, so they are pumped up to take on Minshew. Minshew has not looked as good a fantasy quarterback as in years past. He is a borderline QB2 who is risky to start.
DeShaun Watson looks like he will start in week seven. Watson hasn’t played since week three after injuring his right shoulder. He was able to get a limited practice in on Thursday. The Colts defense has been a good matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this year. They have allowed big yardage to different quarterbacks and multi-touchdown games. Usually, opposing quarterbacks aren’t dominating but have solid outings. If Watson plays, we must be cautious about his injury and how much it would affect in-game. He is likely a mid-range QB2 because it’s hard to trust that he will throw the ball at full strength. It may be a ton of short throws or dump-off passes. If Watson sits, PJ Walker would likely start. It would still be hard to trust him in fantasy, even in a better matchup. If he showed a rushing floor, that may improve his day, but he is coming off a two-interception game in week six. He would likely be a QB3 in week seven.
The Colts running back room is in for a tough matchup in week seven. The Browns haven’t allowed a running back to rush over 50 yards this season. They just allowed their first rushing touchdown on the season in week six. They also have been pretty solid in stopping running backs from producing in the passing game. Well, this Colts backfield seems like it’s a two-man committee now. Jonathan Taylor has been back for two games but still plays fewer snaps than red-hot Zack Moss. Moss has been on fire with four of five games with over 14 fantasy points this year. We assume that Taylor will creep into taking more of Moss’s work since they just paid him to be there. It seems like Taylor was taking more of the short-yard and third-down role while Moss was the early downs and two-minute guy in the offense. Neither back will have a good day running with the ball. It will come down to who gets more work in the receiving game. Minshew loves to throw to his running backs, and we’ve seen that when he gets on the field. In week six, Taylor and Moss combined for 13 targets. It’s hard to tell if Taylor will start overtaking Moss, but they are both low-end RB2s and hope for the best.
The Browns backfield has its only problem with its potential to become a committee. This backfield’s matchup against the Colts is a favorable one for them. Colts rank in the bottom ten vs. fantasy running backs this year. They have given up five rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. While they don’t overly get beat by rushing yards, they have allowed enough that you can trust the opposing running backs. We saw Jerome Ford as the lead guy in week six, and he ran pretty well against a tough 49ers run defense. He took most of the early downs and played as a third-down back. As long as he can continue to hold his job, he should have no problem finishing as a high-end RB2 in week seven. Kareem Hunt saw a ton more work in week six. He had 15 touches for over 60 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Hunt did all that, playing just 37% of the snaps. He may see even more work moving forward. Hunt should be an RB3 with some upside in a good matchup.
The Colts pass catchers will be in a tough spot in week seven. The Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers this year. They have allowed the fewest receiving yards this season. They have given up 70 yards to just two receivers. They have allowed one receiving touchdown on the season, too. Michael Pittman has done well this year and sees more targets with Minshew on the field than with Richardson. I think Pittman could struggle against this Browns secondary and underperform. He is a high-end WR3 in week seven. Josh Downs has back-to-back double-digit fantasy point games. He has gotten 26 targets in three games with Minshew and then 15 with Richardson. Downs could be okay in the slot, but slot receivers haven’t done well against the Browns this year. He is a WR4 at best in week seven. The Colts tight ends don’t stand out and are outside my top 24 tight ends.
The Browns pass catchers will have either a banged-up DeShaun Watson or PJ Walker at quarterback again. They have a favorable matchup against the Colts this week. They have allowed 100-yard receivers in four of six games this year. The Colts have allowed seven WR2s or better this season. Amari Cooper has been the team’s WR1 all year, so he should continue to be that. It doesn’t matter who plays quarterback Cooper in a solid matchup; he should thrive. He is a mid-range WR2 that should have a good day. Elijah Moore continues to see a solid target share with seven in week six. Unfortunately, he continues to be unable to produce with them in fantasy. Moore sits as a low-end WR5 that you likely won’t want to start unless you are desperate for fantasy.
David Njoku leads the Browns tight end. While he has dealt with a recent crazy injury, he hasn’t produced much all year. 7.9 fantasy points was the best outing for Njoku this season and was with the rookie quarterback. Every tight end the Colts have faced has at least 30 receiving yards in the game. They allowed their first touchdown on the year in week six to a tight end. Njoku can’t be trusted as a must-start and is likely a mid-range TE2.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Gillette Stadium
- Weather – Partly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -8.0) & Over/Under 40
Identifying the Game Script
We have our first divisional game of the weekend between the Bills and the Patriots. In the previous five outings, their combined total score was 46.8. The Bills have won by 10 points in the last four games against the Patriots. The Bills are coming off a close win over the Giants. The Patriots offense found some production but still lost to the Raiders. This could be a lower-scoring game as these teams fight each other tough, especially if there are issues with Josh Allen. More than likely, the Bills offense should throw against the Patriots poor defense.
Josh Allen has been a beast but returned to earth in week six with just 17 fantasy points. There was a point where it looked like he injured his shoulder, which could be the reason for the bad game. Allen is killing it this season, with 16 total touchdowns in just six weeks. Josh Allen has thrived against the Patriots defense over his career. In three of the last four games vs. the Patriots, Allen has produced some big-time performances. The Patriots defense has held strong, with just one passer over 250 yards and two passing touchdowns. As long as Allen is healthy, you must trust him in this matchup. He should finish as a QB1 in week seven.
Mac Jones has been terrible this year; that he still has a job is mind-blowing. Since week two, he is averaging 178 passing yards and has a 2:8 touchdown-to-turnover ratio this season. Mac Jones’s career has averaged 200 passing yards and one touchdown per game vs. Bills. Those numbers are better than what he is doing now. This offense is a mess, and the Bills allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have kept four quarterbacks under 200 passing yards and just four passing touchdowns on the season. I don’t think Jones will figure out how to play better football in just one week. He should be outside the top 24 quarterbacks in week seven.
The Bills backfield is starting to look like a two-man backfield. James Cook and Latavius Murray played the same number of snaps in the offense in week six. Cook has been working on the early downs and struggling the last two weeks in fantasy. Murray is getting the goal line and third down role, but still not producing. The Bill trusts the old veteran in certain situations over James Cook. The Patriots run defense is a middle-of-the-road unit. They have allowed a 70-yard rusher in back-to-back games. The Patriots have given up a rushing touchdown in four of six games. I expect James Cook to continue to see the early downs but would need a big reception or a touchdown to have a great fantasy day. He is a mid-range RB2 in week seven. Latavius Murray seems inevitable for a touchdown in week seven. I can feel it. Damien Harris is likely to miss this game, so Murray will be the true backup to James Cook. We’ll have to see if they want to continue giving Murray more work in the offense. He is a borderline RB3 in week seven.
The Patriots backfield feels like a disappointment, but it’s not as bad as you think. Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t playing to the level of 2022, but he still has managed double-digit fantasy points in three of six games. Don’t get me wrong, he averages 3.0 YPC this season but has 24 targets in the six games despite all the offensive struggles. The matchup against the Bills is a favorable one for this backfield. Due to injuries, the Bills run defense has allowed a 90-yard rusher in three straight games. They do allow passing value to running backs this season as well. If the Patriots were wise, they would get the ground game going with Stevenson and Zeke Elliott. Stevenson is risky just because of how bad this offense is, but the upside in this game is hard to pass up. Stevenson should be a high-end RB2 in week seven. Elliott is a mid-range RB3 due to the lack of running backs during this big bye week.
The Bills pass catchers have continually only been Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Patriots have only allowed receivers to gain over 70 yards this year. They have allowed a touchdown in five of six games to a receiver. Patriots are a bend but don’t break type of defense that should continue to do that here. Stefon Diggs has done well against the Patriots, especially last year, when he had 196 yards and two touchdowns against them. Diggs has 100 yards in five of six games this year. He should be in line for another WR1 week.
Gabe Davis, on the other hand, has performed terribly against the Patriots. In five career games, Davis has only averaged 23 receiving yards. For the most part, Davis has shown that he needs a touchdown to make his fantasy day. He is a risky flex option in a matchup and, likely, is a high-end WR4. The Patriots have allowed two young tight ends over 70 yards this year. There has been only one game in which Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have combined over ten fantasy points. Kincaid missed week six, and Knox did nothing. If Kincaid plays, he is a low-end TE2 that may not even be worth playing, and Knox is outside my top 24 tight ends. He jumps a bit, but not much if Kincaid misses this game.
These Patriots pass catchers are not the ones we want to start in fantasy. The Bills secondary has dealt with injuries, so they have allowed four receivers over 60 yards in recent weeks. It’s a slightly easier matchup than a month ago. The Bills against tight ends have been fantastic; they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. They have yet to let a tight end over 45 yards this year. Hunter Henry has fallen apart as a reliable tight end in fantasy and is injured. He is, at best, a low-end TE2. Mike Gesicki may fill in, but he isn’t doing much in the offense either and would be outside the top 24 tight ends.
Kendrick Bourne would be the only one I’d consider starting for the receivers. Bourne has always been a player who has had some random boom weeks in his career. It helps that Juju Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas missed week six, but they should both be back in week seven. Bourne is, at best, a boom/bust WR4 that you could flex, but it’s risky. Every other receiver here is outside my top 60 this week.
Washington Commanders vs New York Giants
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ MetLife Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (WAS -2.5) & Over/Under 37.5
Identifying the Game Script
The next divisional game of the weekend is between the Commanders and the Giants. In the previous five games between these two teams, they have averaged 40.5 total points. The Commanders are coming off a solid win over the Falcons. The Giants fought hard but couldn’t finish it in Buffalo. The Commanders will need to get their run game going against one of the worst run defenses in football. The Giants need to take advantage of the Commander’s bad secondary, but the quarterback is an issue. This could be a very one-sided game with the Commanders leading.
Sam Howell is playing well this season in fantasy despite how the Commanders are doing in the NFL. Howell has over 20 fantasy points in four of the last five games. Besides that terrible performance against the Bills, Howell is averaging 266 passing yards and has a 9:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Howell impressed me even in a tougher matchup in week six, where he produced 24 points. The Giants are a decent matchup for Howell. They have allowed two-plus total touchdowns to an opposing quarterback in four of five games this year. Many offenses that the Giants have faced didn’t need to do much because opposing teams get out to big leads early. This is a division game, so it will likely be much closer, allowing Howell to produce. He should finish as a QB1 in week seven.
Daniel Jones was limited in practice on Thursday and questionable for week seven. He still has not been cleared for contact, so I expect Jones to miss this game. Tyrod Taylor is the one who will start on Sunday. Taylor only finished with ten fantasy points in week six, but it was a tough matchup. Even with the issues on the offense and injuries, Taylor does have a good matchup in week seven. The Commanders allow the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed two-plus passing touchdowns in four of the last five games. They also give rushing yardage to fantasy quarterbacks, as they have given up 30-plus yards in five of six games. Taylor showed a small rushing floor with 23 yards in week six. I think Taylor could have himself a good game here. He’ll need to do some rushing to keep this team moving on offense. Taylor is a sleeper and a good QB2 in Superflex leagues.
The Commander backfield has found some success with second-year back Brian Robinson. In fantasy, he has done well with four of six games with double-digit fantasy points. Robinson isn’t being overly efficient in the run game, but he is finding ways to produce fantasy for us. The Giants are a favorable matchup, allowing the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Giants have allowed a 70-yard rusher in every game this year. They also have allowed a rushing touchdown in five of the six games this year. The one negative note is the Giants have yet to allow opposing backs a ton of passing work this year. This game should feature Robinson on the ground, where he sees double-digit carries in the matchup. I expect Robinson to have a big game and likely score a touchdown. He should be an RB1 in week seven. Antonio Gibson has seen eight fantasy points in back-to-back games, but I don’t think this is a game that the Commanders will need to use Gibson. Inconsistent passing value and receiving touchdowns aren’t consistent for me in fantasy. He is, at best, a high-end RB4.
The Giants backfield is once again by Saquon Barkley as the lead. In Barkley’s first game back, he played 78% of the offensive snaps and 68% of the carries. Barkley has a decent matchup in week seven. The Commanders have allowed 50 rushing yards in five of six games this year. In seven career games, Barkley has averaged 121 all-purpose yards against the Commanders. Due to the lack of quarterback talent, the Giants may need to lean on Barkley to help try to win this game. He should see the workload that has him finish as a RB1 in week seven.
The Commanders pass catchers have a decent matchup against the Giants secondary. They have given up a receiving touchdown in five straight games. They have allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of the last four games. They have allowed five other receivers over 50 yards as well. The team’s supposed WR1, Terry McLaurin, has been solid but not the elite we’ve seen in the past seasons. In half of McLaurin’s games, he has produced over ten fantasy points. McLaurin’s career vs. the Giants has averaged 92 receiving yards in seven games. McLaurin’s up-and-down performances are not a concern since he has always been that way. He should be a mid-range WR2 in week seven.
Curtis Samuel has been the best receiver in fantasy points this season. Samuel is coming off three straight games with double-digit fantasy points as he is thriving in the slot. Samuel has consistently had at least 40 yards in five of six games. Samuel should be a high-end WR3 and solid flex play. Jahan Dotson is, at best, a WR5, but there is no trust in his game right now. For the Commander’s tight ends, it’s a decent matchup. The Giants have allowed three tight ends over 50 yards in three of six games. Logan Thomas had been solid for the tight end position this year. He can sometimes be inconsistent, but he is essential for the Commander’s offense. He is a nice borderline TE1 in week seven.
The pass catchers for the Giants have a fantastic matchup in week seven. The Commanders allow the second most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed a 110-yard receiver in five straight games. They have allowed a multi-touchdown day to receivers in three of six games this year. That brings me to Wan’Dale Robinson, who has been impressive since returning despite a poor offense. He has caught 22 of 25 targets. He had a season-high 62 receiving yards with eight receptions. I have Robinson as a high-end WR4 in this matchup. The only other receiver I’m willing to trust would be Darius Slayton, who has had his second game over 60 yards this year. He could be the one that goes over 100 yards in this game. It’s risky since his target share has not gotten over six targets this year. He would be a WR5 at best.
Darren Waller has been the most productive of all the pass catchers this year, but not as great as his off-season hype. Waller has just two games over seven fantasy points this year. The Commanders haven’t allowed a tight end to over 45 receiving yards this year. Waller should see six targets in this game and finish as a low-end TE1. It’s not great, but it has decent production in week seven.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ Raymond James Stadium
- Weather – Partly Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (TB -2.5) & Over/Under 37
Identifying the Game Script
The next divisional game of the weekend is between the Falcons and the Buccaneers. These two division foes have had high-scoring games over their last five outings. They have 54.8 combined total points. Last year, they would split as the home team would win their matchup. The Falcons would finally lose at a game at home under Desmond Ridder in a close one to the Commanders. The Bucs put their creamsicle jerseys on and played like it was 1980. These are two tough defenses, but both offenses know how to beat each other. The Bucs need to establish the run against a tough run defense. Divisional games are always wild card games in which anything can happen.
Desmond Ridder has been great in the last two weeks. He has put up over 20 fantasy points and thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games. We all know that Ridder plays better at home than on the road. He is back on the road down to Tampa Bay, so this will be a test for Ridder. Ridder averages 20 fantasy points in home games compared to his seven in away games. The Bucs have allowed at least two touchdowns to an opposing quarterback in four of five games this year. The Bucs have played against some good quarterbacks. I don’t think we can call Ridder that yet. Ridder is a mid-range QB2 in week seven. We have the mega bye week and a decent matchup for Ridder. He will be a QB2 in Superflex league lineups.
Baker Mayfield struggled in week six as he finished under ten fantasy points. Mayfield has been up and down over his last three contests for fantasy. He has slightly returned to his turnover ways with three picks in the previous three weeks. The Falcons are not the best matchup for Mayfield, as they have a solid secondary. They have kept four of six quarterbacks at just one passing touchdown. They continue to keep opposing quarterbacks under 250 passing yards. They are a tough defense he could struggle against, just like the Lions in week six. We’re hoping that Mayfield is getting the bye-week rust off and gets back to good football. He is likely a low-end QB2 and isn’t a great start in week seven.
The Falcons backfield is hated by most of the fantasy world right now. The Falcons continue to split the groundwork between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. We should have expected that since Allgeier was good in 2022. Allgeier sees more red zone opportunities, while Robinson has a clear lead on the pass-catching role in the offense. The Bucs are a formidable unit against fantasy running backs this year, ranking in the top ten. Outside of a week three performance from D’Andre Swift, the Bucs have limited rushers under 55 yards. The biggest issue for the Falcons is that the Bucs haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this year. As for the passing attack, the Bucs haven’t allowed much passing value to the running backs, either.
Bijan Robinson, unfortunately, is being limited for us in fantasy but is still managing double-digit fantasy points in five of six games. Robinson’s rushing hasn’t been that efficient, but his passing role keeps his production at an RB1 level. Robinson should finish as a low-end RB1 in week seven. Allgeier continues to annoy fantasy owners since he has seen double-digit carries in back-to-back games but has combined nine fantasy points. Allgeier will continue to see a big part in the offense but likely would need a touchdown to be start-worthy in fantasy. He is borderline RB3 in week seven, which is a risky play.
|Opponent||Rank vs RB|
|Week 1||MIN||Top 10|
|Week 7||ATL||Top 10|
The Bucs backfield continues to be ineffective for the Bucs and fantasy. Rachaad White continues to lead the backfield in carries, snaps, and targets but hasn’t done much with it. Granted, White had one of the hardest schedules to start the year for fantasy running backs. The chart above shows that the Falcons rank in the top 10 vs. fantasy running backs. They have allowed four running backs over 60 yards but zero touchdowns to the position. The Falcons have not allowed a running back over 30 receiving yards this year. White is an RB3 for me, and I’d prefer not to start. He will continue to see the opportunity since KeShawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker are averaging under 2.0 YPC on the season.
The Falcons pass catchers have been solid over these last two weeks. Drake London has over 200 receiving yards these previous two games. Kyle Pitts also has double-digit fantasy points during that time, and Jonnu Smith has been streamable for the last three weeks. The Bucs secondary is a favorable matchup again for Drake London. They have allowed a 100-yard receiver and a receiving touchdown in four of five games this year. London’s value will depend on if “on the road” Ridder can thrive in that situation. London should be ranked as a high-end WR3 that should be fine as a flex option. No other receiver is worth starting, as Ridder cannot produce two fantasy wide receivers, especially with the tight ends seeing significant target shares.
Speaking of Falcons tight ends, they have a tougher matchup in week seven. The Bucs allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The reason is that they haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position. Opposing tight ends have been able to get in that 30 to 40-yard range but nothing more. Pitts and Smith are splitting the starting role in the offense. Pitts played one more snap than Smith did in week six. It’s nice that Pitts has some great games, but they were at home, so I’m cautious about him on the road in a tough matchup. He is a borderline TE1. Jonnu Smith, I trust more than Pitts still. Smith has seen six-plus fantasy points since week two and should be a borderline TE1 as well.
The Bucs pass catchers were most disappointing in week six for us. Chris Godwin leads the way with ten fantasy points. They don’t have the easiest matchup in week seven since the Falcons are ranked in the top ten against receivers. They have allowed just three receivers over 60 yards this year. It all comes down to Baker and if he can move the ball without an effective run game. Mike Evans has been under 50 yards the last two weeks, and Godwin is still looking for his first touchdown. Both players have not been able to produce for us simultaneously. They are both low-end WR2, with Godwin ranked higher as he is in the slot more often. The slot is where the Falcon’s secondary has a weakness and gives up fantasy points. Trey Palmer has sleeper potential as he is coming off a seven-target game. Palmer is a WR5 with deep sleep potential since he is their main slot guy. Cade Otton has a favorable matchup, but his target share is too minimal to trust in fantasy.
Detriot Lions vs Baltimore Ravens
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 1:00 pm @ M&T Bank Stadium
- Weather – Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BAL -3.0) & Over/Under 43
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Lions and the Ravens faced off was in 2021. The Ravens would win a close one, 19-17, over the Lions. The Lions haven’t beaten the Ravens since 2005. The Lions are coming off another solid win over the Bucs. The Ravens offense couldn’t finish in London, but defense and special teams lead the way. We have two heavy-weight teams looking to show off as top contenders for the season. The Ravens are tough in the passing game, so it will be essential to see how Jared Goff and company handle the pressure in a tough matchup. If the Ravens want to get ahead, they must attack the Lions one weakness against tight ends, so Mark Andrew must be on his game. I don’t expect a high-scoring game but a tough battle.
Jared Goff has impressed over the last two weeks. He had some difficult games and scored over 25 points in both. Goff had five touchdowns and zero touchdowns and is playing great football. Goff has another tough matchup as the Ravens allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Ravens haven’t allowed a quarterback over 250 passing yards this year. They have kept passing touchdowns to a minimum, with just four in six games. They haven’t played anyone good with quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, and Dorian Thompson Robinson. They haven’t had a real test against a good passing team. With the run game banged up, the Lions may rely on Goff to do even more in the passing game. Goff should be a borderline QB1 for week seven. The Lions offense can make the Ravens secondary work a bit on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson is coming off two down games, as he has been under 20 fantasy points the last two weeks. Jackson has been solid this year with some big games, especially with his rushing upside. He has been limiting himself by turning the ball over in five of six games this year. Jackson’s rushing has made him look better, as his passing continues to be mediocre this season. This matchup with the Lions is an okay game for Jackson. The Lions have allowed one quarterback over 250 passing yards, and Jackson hasn’t even gone over that this year. His rushing ability makes his fantasy game, but they have only allowed Patrick Mahomes to get 45 rushing yards. The Lions recently don’t let up big passing production, but they shouldn’t affect Jackson overall. If he can get this rushing floor going, he should finish as a QB1.
The Ravens backfield has not been great for fantasy this year. Between Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, they have just three times gone over ten fantasy points. Last week, Edwards handled the early downs and the goal line, and Hill was the third down and two min back. It may be game-dependent who sees more offensive snaps, but Edwards was the guy in week six. The Lions are a terrible matchup for these two running backs. This year, they allow the fewest fantasy points per game to fantasy running backs. They haven’t allowed a rusher over 45 yards and kept a back scoreless in five of six games this year. Neither Edwards nor Hill have overly impressed this year, so both are RB3s, with Edwards leading over Hill. This could be the game Keaton Mitchell shows face, but he will likely not see a significant role soon.
For the Lions backfield, they lose David Montgomery and regain Jahmyr Gibbs. The last time Montgomery missed, Gibbs didn’t impress, but he had 17 carries for 80 yards with almost zero work in the passing game. The Bucs are a strict run defense that has been very good against fantasy running backs this year. Outside of a game vs. D’Andre Swift, they haven’t allowed another back over 50 yards this year. It seems like Gibbs is in for the bulk of the work, but we have no idea what this Lions staff is doing with him. The best way to handle this is to expect between 8 and 11 points from Gibbs after the week. He is like a low-end RB2 with more unknown than upside. Craig Reynolds would be the backup, and he saw four carries last time. With Gibbs coming off injury, Reynolds could see more touches than usual. He is borderline RB3 in week seven.
The pass catchers for the Lions also have a tough matchup. The Ravens allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers, but as I said, they haven’t played elite passing units. They have allowed four receivers over 60 yards this season. Amon St. Brown had an elite game coming off an injury that caused him to miss week five. In week six, St. Brown went over 100 yards and scored a touchdown. He has had over ten fantasy points in each game this year. I’m not concerned with St. Brown for fantasy, as he has been great this year, and I don’t see that stopping in week seven. He is a WR1 this week.
Josh Reynolds has a great matchup, as the Ravens can get beat deep on big plays. Reynolds is seventh in yards per reception and yards per target on the season as the deep-threat player in the offense. Reynolds’ role in the offense hasn’t changed with Jameson Williams returning. Reynolds is an excellent WR3 and flex option; you should feel fine starting this week. Jameson Williams is still a tough start, even with him catching a touchdown in week six. He saw his snap score drop from 47 to 23 percent with St. Brown back on the field. He also has only six targets over two games, which is insufficient to trust in lineups. Williams is a WR5 that is more boom/bust for week seven.
Sam LaPorta also has a tough matchup with the Ravens. The Ravens have allowed just one tight end over 30 yards and have yet to allow a touchdown to the position. La Porta is coming off his worst game of the season, plus he was dealing with an injury. He still managed to see 11 targets in week six. I’m still starting him in a tough match because he is an important piece to the offense and will likely throw the ball more in this game. He is a TE1 in week seven.
The Raven pass catchers have a more favorable matchup this weekend. The Lion’s secondary doesn’t allow big blow-up games with just four receivers over 60 yards. They have allowed many receivers over 40 yards, with 12 on the season. Zay Flowers continues to look like the WR1 on this Ravens team. Flowers has at least 50 yards every game and leads the team in every receiving category. He has eight-plus targets in four of six games this year. Flowers, with his PPR upside, should finish as a low-end WR2.
The rest of the receivers are nonexistent. Rashod Bateman has not gotten over 40 yards this year. He has been splitting time with Odell Beckham as one of the outside receivers. Beckham also hasn’t gained over 40 yards this year. They should both be outside the top 60 receivers. Nelson Agholor continues to be a deep sleeper if he can see more slot work in the offense. He has 40 yards in four of the last five games. He is a low-end WR5.
Mark Andrews has been solid this year in fantasy. He has at least nine fantasy points in four of his five games. The Lions have given up the fourth most receiving yards to tight ends this year. They haven’t allowed a single tight end to succeed but more of the group. Andrews has 60 yards in three straight games and sees the second most targets besides Flowers. Andrews remains a TE1 in week seven.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Rams
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 pm @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors 🙂
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAR -3.0) & Over/Under 44
Identifying the Game Script
The Steelers and Rams faced off in 2019; the Steelers won a close one, 17-12. The Steelers have won the last four games against the Rams. The Steelers are coming off a bye week after a big week in week five over the Ravens. Hopefully, this team got healthy during the bye week. The Rams handled their business in a divisional game win over the Cardinals. The Rams passing attack may have to step up even more in a favorable matchup. The Steelers secondary has holes and has given up many fantasy points to passing units. This could be a very hard-fought matchup in week seven.
Kenny Pickett has not done well outside his week three game vs. the Raiders. He has yet to get over 240 passing yards and one game over a passing touchdown. The Rams are not the easiest matchup for Pickett. They have yet to allow a ton of passing production against them this year. Four of the six quarterbacks they have faced were under 250 passing yards, and they have given up only four passing touchdowns. They have faced three mobile quarterbacks the last three weeks, but Pickett hasn’t shown us that side in 2023 to have a rushing floor. Pickett will likely have Diontae Johnson back, which is excellent, but we still haven’t seen Pickett’s upside in 2023. Pickett is a low-end QB2 that you can’t be very comfortable with in Superflex leagues. All the bye weeks and backup quarterback play have pushed Pickett’s week seven value up.
Matthew Stafford disappointed in fantasy last week with a good matchup against the Cardinals. He has barely gotten over 20 fantasy points just once this year. He has thrown a touchdown or less in five of six games. Somehow, he is supposed to make Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua WR1s. The Steelers are a decent matchup, as they have allowed 300 yards and two passing touchdowns in two of the last three games. Now that the Rams are down their top two running backs, perhaps we will see more throwing opportunities for him. Stafford hasn’t proved he can give us QB1 numbers in fantasy this year, but I’m returning to him in week seven. He should be a low-end QB1 here.
The Steelers backfield has been frustrating for fantasy football, and Najee Harris has been a disappointment with just one game over ten fantasy points. He is running under 4.0 YPC and has yet to score a touchdown. Jaylen Warren feels like the better back, especially with his receiving value, but he isn’t doing enough to trust him in lineups. Warren has beaten Harris in four of five games in half-point PPR leagues. This backfield was coming into a decent matchup against the Rams front seven. They have allowed a 60-yard rusher in five of six games but allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season. The Rams have held running backs to a minimum in passing value, with just one back over 30 receiving yards.
The last time Warren and Harris played, they split the workload 50/50 up until the final drive of their week five game. You’d have to assume Harris will continue to see most of the early downs with few passing plays and likely finish as a high-end RB3. Warren could be attractive if the Steelers choose to move toward him more. He will see the passing downs and a few carries and could finish as borderline RB2. You don’t feel great about them, but they are warm bodies in the running back position.
For the Rams backfield, it is a mystery who will be the featured back for fantasy. Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are out of this matchup with injuries. That leaves former sixth-round pick Zach Evans and three veteran running backs, Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman, and Myles Gaskins. The Steelers are a favorable matchup for this new backfield as they rank in the bottom ten vs. fantasy running backs. They have allowed five 60-yard rushers over five games. Who will get the rock is the question.
Based on Sean McVay’s recent interview, Darrell Henderson and Zach Evans will split the early downs. Henderson knows this backfield very well and should have a role. Hearing McVay say Evans is still learning doesn’t give me complete confidence that he will jump into this team’s lead role. They are both RB4s, and it will be a guessing game with them. The real sleeper is Myles Gaskin, who has shown he can be a threat in the passing game. I’d bank on Gaskin as the one with the most fantasy points at the end of the game. Overall, I don’t want to start any of them if I had to, but bye weeks are a killer.
The pass catchers for the Steelers will be getting their WR1 back in Diontae Johnson. George Pickens has been a boom/bust receiver with two games over 20 fantasy points and two under ten fantasy points. He has been the target’s leader since week two. Johnson has been a PPR machine with big target shares in the last few seasons. This matchup with the Rams will be difficult as the Rams are the fourth-best team against fantasy receivers. They have allowed two receivers to get over 65 receiving yards this year. They haven’t given up a receiving touchdown since week one. This may not be the best game for the Steelers.
Diontae Johnson’s first game, I have complete confidence he’ll not be limited in this matchup. He would have played last week if the Steelers were not on bye. He should be a WR3 flex option that you should feel good to play. George Pickens has been great for lineups when you need a big play, but I have to wonder if he will continue to see eight-plus targets with Johnson back. Pickens is the big play that could beat the Rams secondary. He is a low-end WR3 that I’d consider boom or bust in week seven. Now that Johnson is back, avoiding any Allen Robinson or Calvin Austin anywhere near lineups.
The Steelers will be without Pat Freiermuth again as he is dealing with an injury. The Rams allow the third most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have been destroyed in the last three weeks against the position. It’s hard to trust the backups Darnell Washington and Conner Heyward. They split the starting role in week five, and neither was overly impressive. They would be borderline TE2s in week seven.
The Rams pass catchers are in a great situation. The Rams run game could lack production, leading to more targets. The Steelers are a fantastic matchup, as they allowed receivers the fourth most fantasy points per game. The Steelers have allowed a receiver to have a multi-touchdown game in three of five games this year. They have allowed five receivers over 70 receiving yards over their five games. Cooper Kupp has been nothing short of amazing in his first two games back. He hasn’t lost a beat since returning, which puts him in as WR1 in week seven.
Puka Nacua is coming off the worst game of his NFL career. He dropped a touchdown pass that would have made his day better. He still managed seven targets, so he should continue to see a high target share. Puka is valued as a must-start and a high-end WR2. Tutu Atwell’s value has dropped with just one catch in week six. He is a WR5 and is outside the regular 12-man league flex play. Tyler Higbee has also taken a hit in his targets with the return of Kupp. Higbee saw six targets per game but averaged three in the last two weeks. The Steelers are solid despite allowing three tight ends over 40 yards. If Higbee continues to see a low target share, he will be a mid-range TE2 in week seven.
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:05 pm @ Lumen Field
- Weather – Cloudy
- What Vegas is saying – Line (SEA -8.0) & Over/Under 44.5
Identifying the Game Script
Our first divisional game of the afternoon is between the Cardinals and Seahawks. These division rivals averaged about 46.6 total points in the previous five games. The Cardinals have lost four straight games against Seattle. Seattle must take full advantage of the Cardinals terrible defense, as they are in the bottom ten in both run and pass. The Cardinals need to see more from Joshua Dobbs, especially with Kylar Murray returning soon. The Cardinals receivers can take over this game, as the Seattle secondary has not been great. I’m expecting a back-and-forth game that should be higher scoring.
Joshua Dobbs has come back down to earth these last two weeks. After averaging 23 fantasy points earlier in the year, these last two weeks have been 12 fantasy points. The Seahawks have been up and down this year against fantasy quarterbacks. They have been better the last two weeks as they only have let us, on average, 190 passing yards and one touchdown per game. On the road, in Seattle, Joshua Dobbs will have trouble in a tough environment. Dobbs would have to continue to see his rushing floor with four of the last five games with 40 yards. He recently struggled with turnovers, with two in each of the previous two games. Dobbs is a mid-range QB2 in week seven in a slightly better matchup.
Geno Smith has not been great for us in fantasy this year. While he has close to three 300-yard games, he has just five touchdowns in five games this year. He has averaged about 30 yards and a touchdown less this season than last year. It doesn’t help when Ken Walker has six rushing touchdowns in five games, either. Like the Seattle defense, the Cardinals have been all over the place for fantasy quarterbacks. They are allowing up good passing yardage and two total touchdowns in four of six games. Last year, Smith averaged 235 yards and a touchdown per game vs. the Cardinals. Some other reasons for Smith’s down season have been completions in the red zone are down, and his receivers have dropped the second most passes in the league this year at 30. I’m hesitant to trust him, but his matchup screams QB1 upside. He is a low-end QB1 in week seven.
The Cardinals backfield gave us another confusing committee we don’t want in a fantasy. Keaontay Ingram returned in week six and played the early down. He averaged 4.0 YPC, which was a career-high in a game. Emari Demercado was high on everyone’s list, but I did not see the role we saw in week five. He was more of the third down role and worked in the two-minute offense. Of course, back from the dead was Damien Williams, who saw nine touches in week six. The Seattle run defense has been solid outside of some early touchdown success for running backs. They allowed five rushing touchdowns in the first three weeks, but they have shut that down in the last two weeks. They also have allowed just one running back over 60 yards this year. Ingram would likely have a similar role in this game, but he will probably be touchdown-dependent on making his fantasy day. Ingram is a low-end RB3. Demercado could have a better outing since the Seahawks have allowed four straight games with six-plus receptions to backs. He could be more important in this matchup but should be ranked as a high-end RB4.
The Seattle backfield has a fantastic matchup in week seven. The Cardinals allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed a touchdown to a running back in five of six games this year. They have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of the last four games. The lowest opposing back has had on the season is 59 rushing yards. Ken Walker leads this backfield and has crushed it in fantasy this year. He has four straight games with double-digit fantasy points with six total touchdowns. He is running well with a 4.2 YPC with 100 receiving yards this year. Last year, Walker averaged 100 rushing yards against the Cardinals. Walker should continue to be an RB1 in week seven. Rookie Zach Charbonnet has seen his snap count fall under 30% and barely produced in fantasy. He is a borderline RB4 in this matchup.
The Cardinals pass catchers have a great matchup in week seven. The Seahawks have allowed receivers the third most fantasy points per game this year. They have allowed six receivers over 80 yards this season. Like the quarterback situation, the last two weeks, they have been better with just one of those 80-yard receivers. Marquise Brown is coming off his worst game since week one. He averaged double-digit fantasy points in four straight games before week six. Brown continues to see over a 25% target share in the offense. He should bounce back in a good matchup. He is a mid-range WR2 for week seven.
Michael Wilson bounced back a bit with three receptions for 62 yards. He now has 60 yards in three of four games. Wilson isn’t a consistent option in fantasy, with less than five targets in all but one game. He is a WR5 that has some upside. Rondale Moore is interesting since Seattle has allowed slot receivers to produce against them this year. Moore did see a season-high seven targets but finished under five points. He has some deep sleeper appeal as a low-end WR5.
For the tight end position, we could be seeing the start of Trey McBride taking over for Zach Ertz. McBride played more snaps for the first time this year over Zrtz. McBride finished with four receptions for 62 yards in week six. Seattle has been decent against tight ends, with two over 40 yards this season. They also haven’t allowed any touchdowns to the position this year. I won’t assume a big change due to one game this year. Ertz is still a low-end TE2, with McBride just outside the top 24 tight ends from week seven.
The Seattle pass catchers have disappointed since they ranked second in drops this year. All three receivers are outside the top 36 on total fantasy points among receivers. This matchup is great for the receivers as the Cardinals are in the bottom ten vs. fantasy receivers. They have allowed three straight games over 130 yards these last three weeks. DK Metcalf has been unable to get things going against the Cardinals over his career. He averages under 30 yards per game in eight career games with just two touchdowns. Even last year, when Patrick Peterson wasn’t there, he had 71 yards in two games. This would be a game where Metcalf can thrive, but the Cardinals seem to have his number. His talent is too good not to rank as a high-end WR2.
Tyler Lockett continues his boom/bust season with six receptions for 94 yards in week six. Lockett has been great against the Cardinals. In five of the last six games that Lockett has played the Cardinals, he finished as a WR2 or better. He should be a WR2 in this matchup. I’m trusting the target share he is seeing in the offense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has career highs in snaps, routes, and yards in week six. He is still hard to trust because he isn’t likely to get over six targets in most games. Even in this favorable matchup, until JSN gives us a couple of flex-worthy performances, he is a low-end WR4 with upside. The Seattle tight end is a three-man committee that had Cobly Parkinson lead with 16 yards in week six. Noah Fant was on a streak but fell apart after the bye. In a matchup that could allow yardage but unlikely touchdown, they are all outside the top 24 tight ends.
Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ Empower Field at Mile High
- Weather – Mainly Sunny
- What Vegas is saying – Line (GB -1.0) & Over/Under 45
Identifying the Game Script
The Packers and the Broncos haven’t played each other since 2019. The Packers would win at home 27-16 over the Broncos. The Packers are coming off a bye after a bad loss on MNF to the Raiders in week five. The Broncos played a tough TNF game against the Chiefs but couldn’t win. This is a game for the Packers offense to bounce back against a terrible Broncos defense. This game could be where the Packers jump off to a fast start. If the Broncos want a chance to produce, they must figure out their run game as the Packers struggle against the run. The game could be one-sided on Sunday.
|GP||Comp %||Comp||Att||Yds||TDs||Ru At||Ru Yds||Ru TD||Sacks||Int||FL||6 PP TD||4 PP TD|
Jordan Love has regressed in each game this year after a great start in week one. Love would start the year with a high touchdown finish but eventually start turning the ball over more as teams figured out Love. His accuracy has not been great, with under 60% finish in four of five games this year. He gets an excellent chance to bounce back off a bye against the Broncos. The Broncos allow the second most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. From weeks one to four, they allowed 13 passing touchdowns and averaged 280 passing yards. They have allowed 250 passing yards and one touchdown in the last two weeks. They played Zach Wilson, and they always play tough vs. Patrick Mahomes. Part of the reason the passing offense wasn’t needed against the Broncos has been that their run defense is so bad. Love is in a fantastic offense, and his matchup is too good not to take a chance on the first-time starter. Love is a low-end QB1 in week seven.
Russell Wilson was terrible on last week’s TNF against the Chiefs. He finished under eight fantasy points after playing very well for us in fantasy the previous month. The Packers are a tough team against fantasy quarterbacks, as they haven’t allowed a passer over 240 yards. They have given up almost as many touchdowns (5) as interceptions (4) taken away. The Packers are not a secondary that most teams will want to face. This team feels pressure to do well, but it’s a train wreck. Wilson is likely a mid-range QB2 in week seven.
The Packers backfield has not been great for us in fantasy. Mainly because Aaron Jones has barely played since week one, and AJ Dillon hasn’t been able to do anything with the rock. Dillion is averaging a 3.0 YPC on 12 carries per game. Jones has flirted with returning the last two weeks before the bye. This is a fantastic matchup for this backfield. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points per game to running backs. A good portion of the Broncos bad run defense did come from that Dolphins game. They have allowed 100-yard rushers in two of the other five games they played. The lowest opposing running back has at least 45 rushing yards.
This backfield will come down to whether Aaron Jones decides to play. If Jones plays, I assume he will be back as the starter and see double-digit carries as the Packers try to establish the run. He would be a low-end RB1 in week seven. For AJ Dillon, he would be an RB3 with some upside in a perfect matchup. I consider him playable due to all the bye weeks. If Jones decides to miss again, AJ Dillon would be a low-end RB2 with an upside. I would expect the Packers to bring in a back like recently signed James Robinson to handle the passing downs work.
The Broncos backfield is a complete mess now that it has turned into a three-man committee. They do have a solid matchup against the Packers. They have allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of five games this year. They allow rushing touchdowns and have given up six-plus receptions in three of five games. Jaleel McLaughlin started the game in week six but didn’t produce with all three backs in the game. McLaughlin has seen ten touches in three straight games. He has been involved in the passing game with ten targets over the last three weeks. McLaughlin is someone you could flex in week seven. He has the most upside in the offense in a favorable matchup. He is a high-end RB3.
The supposed starter, Javonte Williams, returned after missing a game due to a hip injury. He had ten carries for 52 yards. I assume he would see more offensive snaps in this game, as he played under 50% in week six. Williams should return to the starter role of the offense. With Perine’s recent struggles, I would say that Williams takes over the two-minute offense role, too. Williams should be a low-end RB2 with a solid chance to score. Samaje Perine has not looked the same as he did in Cincinnati. His role seems to have regressed as he played a season-low 17% of the offensive snaps. Perine could be phased out of the offense if the Broncos continue to move toward the youth route. Perine is more of an RB4 here.
The pass catchers for the Packers are all very talented, but none see WR1 workloads. The Broncos are a decent matchup for this group. They have allowed a touchdown in five of six games to a receiver. The yardage hasn’t always been there, with just four receivers over 70 yards this year. Christian Watson took over leading targets in week five with six and has done well for us in fantasy. He has seen back-to-back nine fantasy points, which is solid coming off injury. Watson is back to his full workload and should be able to produce in this game. He is a mid-range WR2 but has a limited upside due to his targets in the offense.
Romeo Doubs has been the most productive receiver with three of five games with 14 plus fantasy points. He is coming off a bad game with just one reception. Only four targets in week five is a concern if he is no longer the team’s top receiver with Watson back now. He should be viewed as a high-end WR4 with upside. I want to see if the Packers get their young rookie Jayden Reed more work coming off the bye. He is fast and electric in space, but slot receivers have not done well vs. the Broncos. He is a borderline WR4 in week seven if he can’t see more than two targets.
Luke Musgrave needs to get back to work, as he was benched for a portion of that Raiders game. The Broncos allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. They have allowed 60 yards or more in the last three games to a tight end. Musgrave managed to see seven targets in week five as he led the team in targets. Musgrave hasn’t blown up in a game yet, but this could be the week he does. He is a TE1 in week seven, with a significant potential upside in this matchup.
The Broncos pass catchers have not been ones we have enjoyed in fantasy this year. This year, Jerry Jeudy has barely gotten over ten fantasy points in a game. Courtland Sutton has been solid but as a low-end WR2 most of the season. The rest of the pass catchers have not been consistent options in fantasy football. The Packers are top ten vs. fantasy receivers this year. They have allowed the third-fewest yards to the position. There have been just two receivers to produce over 70 yards this season. Courtland Sutton will continue to lead this team in fantasy. His targets have been up and down, but he is the only one consistent in fantasy. His red zone looks have been a big help to his value. He is a WR3 in week seven.
Jerry Jeudy saw his snaps drop in a come-from-behind outing. Jeudy has yet to make a relevant impact in fantasy this year. In a difficult matchup, He is a low-end WR4. No other receiver is producing for the Broncos, as Marvin Mims saw his snaps drop to the 20% range. Tight end Greg Dulcich returned in week six but got hurt again. He came in and saw two catches for 22 yards before getting injured. He likely won’t play in week seven, and Adam Trautman is not worth starting.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Details of the Script
- Sunday – 4:25 pm @ GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Weather – Clouds and Sunshine
- What Vegas is saying – Line (KC -5.5) & Over/Under 48
Identifying the Game Script
Our final divisional game of the afternoon is between the Chargers and the Chiefs. In the previous five outings, these two teams put up some high-scoring numbers, with their combined total of 56.6 points. Both teams scored at least over 20 points in each of those games. The Chargers are coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys, where they should have won. The Chiefs beat their division foe as the defense won them that game. This should be a high-scoring game, but we’ve seen the West teams play each other tough. The Chargers defense is terrible, so this should be a game that the Chiefs passing offense should take full advantage of. The Chargers won’t have it so easy, but they must find creative ways to get their stars the ball.
Justin Herbert is having an elite fantasy season with 20-plus fantasy points in each game this year. He gets to play the Chiefs, who have been solid vs. fantasy quarterbacks this year. They have allowed one passing touchdown or less in four of six games this year. Justin Herbert has had great fantasy success against the Chiefs. He has averaged 290 passing yards in six career games and two touchdowns. Even in what seemed like a down game in week six, Hebert still managed 227 yards and two touchdowns. Herbert shouldn’t have any issue finishing as a QB1 in week seven.
Patrick Mahomes has dealt with some tough matchups over the last three games. Mahomes’ lowest fantasy outing was 23 points in weeks one to three. In weeks four to six, his highest output was 23 points. He has finished under 20 fantasy points in two of the last three games. Now Mahomes gets to go against the worst team in the league against fantasy quarterbacks. What timing for a monster bounce-back game for our fantasy lineups, right? The Chargers have allowed at least two total touchdowns to the opposing quarterbacks in four of five games this year. They have allowed big yardage with three quarterbacks over 270 yards. Mahomes averages 265 yards and two touchdowns over nine career games vs. the Chargers. Mahomes is a QB1.
The Chargers backfield finally has their star running back on the field in Austin Ekeler. In Ekeler’s first game back, he wasn’t all that productive. He finished that game with a 1.9 YPC and had just 35 receiving yards. The Chiefs are a tough matchup for Ekeler in week seven. Since week two, the Chiefs haven’t allowed a rusher over 60 yards or a rushing touchdown. They have allowed just one game to a backfield with more than four receptions. We haven’t seen Ekeler enough this season to understand how he fits in this new offense. Ekeler is a star talent that should finish as an RB1 in this matchup. Joshua Kelley returned to being just a backup running back and is likely outside the top 50.
The Chiefs backfield is all but certain to be Isiah Pacheco’s in fantasy. He continues to see a 60/40 split with the rest of the backfield. He has four straight games with double-digit fantasy points and controls most of the groundwork. Occasionally, he will see a bump in targets; in week six, he was 6/6 on 36 receiving yards. This matchup with the Chargers can be favorable if Pacheco gets opportunities. The Chargers have only allowed two rushers over 60 yards. They have allowed running backs to have value in the receiving game with back-to-back outings of six receptions for 80 yards. Isiah Pacheco should be a low-end RB1 in fantasy. His receiving work will be vital if he wants an elite or solid week in fantasy. Jerick McKinnon could be interesting since he is still the two-minute/third down back in the offense. McKinnon has had almost 20 receiving yards in four of six games, but not enough to start in lineups. He is, at best, a high-end RB4.
The Chargers pass catchers will also have a tough matchup in this game. The Chiefs don’t allow much yardage, with just one receiver over 65 yards since week two. They have allowed a receiving touchdown in five of six games this year. Keenan Allen is on a career season as he has seen double-digit fantasy points in every game this year. Allen has finished as a WR2 or better in each game he played against the Chiefs since 2020. The Chiefs have been great at stopping outside receivers, so the fact that Allen plays in the slot is great for his value. Allen should be able to finish as a WR1.
Josh Palmer has stepped up in the absence of Mike Williams. Palmer has three straight games of 60-plus yards. In a tough matchup, Palmer is a risky play in week seven. He’ll need a big target share to succeed against the Chiefs. He is a high-end WR4. Rookie Quentin Johnston has five targets in the last two games with just 18 yards. He is not worth starting until he can show it in a game. He is outside the top 60 receivers. Gerald Everett had his best game in week six as he finished with nine fantasy points. The Chiefs have allowed three tight ends over 50 yards this year. Last year, Everett had six receptions for 71 yards in one game against the Chiefs. It’s hard to trust Everett’s play based on the targets he is receiving this season. He is a mid-range TE2.
For the Chiefs pass catchers, Travis Kelce sits at the top. The Chargers have been better against tight ends, allowing two over 40 yards this year. Last year, Kelce put up 166 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Chargers. Kelce is a TE1 in week seven. For the rest of the pass catchers, that’s the tricky part. The only one to be worth starting at this time is Rashee Rice. Besides now-injured Justin Watson, he is the only one with over 200 receiving yards through six weeks. Rice hasn’t had this big blow-up game yet but has had eight fantasy points or more in four of six games. Rice should reach the 50% snap mark in week seven and see six-plus targets.
The Chargers allow the most fantasy points per game to receivers. They have allowed six receivers over 70 yards and three receivers over 100 yards. This is a game for Rice to break out, and I like him as a low-end WR3 with upside. The rest of the Chief’s receivers are hard to consider, but the matchup is excellent. Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are, at best, WR5s, but they combined for five fantasy points last week. There is almost no faith in them, but the matchup is interesting.
Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles
Details of the Script
- SNF – 8:25 pm @ Lincoln Financial Field
- Weather – Partly Cloudy w/ some wind
- What Vegas is saying – Line (PHI -2.5) & Over/Under 50.5
Identifying the Game Script
Our last game of the night is between two elite teams, the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles. The last time these two teams faced off was back in 2019. They would battle in a high-scoring game, 37-31, and the Dolphins would win. To be honest, we could see a similar outing with a high score at the end. Both defenses have allowed tons of production to opposing quarterbacks, so we could see a classic shootout between these former Alabama quarterbacks. The key will be the Dolphins run game as they faced the number two run defense in the league. This game will determine who turns the ball over more and who can stop the elite passing offenses. This is the game of the week.
Tua Tagovailoa was back to having his boom week in week six. After a few decent weeks, Tua had over 250 passing yards and threw up three touchdowns. His matchup with the Eagles is slightly favorable but not as easy the last few weeks. The Eagles, in weeks one and two, allowed 680 yards and seven passing touchdowns. They gave up 844 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in the next four weeks. Their secondary is starting to get healthy, allowing them to stick to fantasy quarterbacks. Tua and the Dolphins are a different type of matchup. They will find ways to make big plays and score points. Even on the road, Tua should be a QB1 on SNF.
Jalen Hurts is a strong fantasy option with five straight games over 20 fantasy points. Granted, he has been very turnover-prone with seven interceptions, but 253 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns have canceled that out. I would like to see a little more in the passing game since he has only one game over one passing touchdown. The Dolphins are a decent matchup, but not great for Hurts. Outside of that Buffalo game, the Dolphins secondary has allowed 236 passing yards and just one touchdown per game. The good thing for Hurts is that Miami hasn’t had an interception since week three and only two on the season. If Hurts finds his rushing floor, he should be in for another QB1 finish.
The Dolphins backfield has an extremely tough matchup against the Eagles. The Eagles allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Eagles haven’t allowed a rusher over 60 yards this year. The one good thing for Rasheem Mostert is that it’s not all about the rushing yards for him. Yes, he has four games over 70 yards this year, but touchdowns make his fantasy game. The Dolphins put Mostert in position to score in every game. Mostert should be able to produce even in a tough matchup. Mostert always has a receiving ability that can compensate for the potential to be limited on the ground. The Eagles allowed Brece Hall to have five receptions for 54 yards in week six.
Mostert is an RB1 in week seven. Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson, I assume, will be active in this game. If Wilson is back, I’d expect him to split the backup role with Ahmed, putting them out of any starting fantasy radars. Jeff Wilson could be a low-end RB4, and Ahmed is just outside the top 50 running backs.
The Eagles backfield continues to allow D’Andre Swift to lead it. Swift has double-digit fantasy points in every game since week two. He had his lowest rushing output in week six but made up for it with eight receptions for 60 yards. This Dolphins run defense has allowed just one running back since week two over 50 yards. They have given up five rushing touchdowns on the season. Swift should still be able to produce against the Dolphins, as he has been playing at a high level all year. He continues to see the groundwork and plays over 60% of the snaps. Swift should be an RB1 in week seven. Kenny Gainwell is interesting, but judging how his fantasy day will go is tough. He sees the passing down work but is not producing this season outside of that week one game. Gainwell is at best a RB4.
The Dolphins pass catches have a fantastic matchup as the Eagles allow the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers. Eagles have allowed eight receivers over 60 yards and have given up a touchdown in five of six games this year. As I mentioned earlier, the Eagle’s secondary is getting healthier, so it may not be as easy as one may think. One thing to note is that some of Tyreek Hill’s worst games this year have come in on the road. Again, those were divisional games that are usually tough for the Dolphins offense. Hill should be able to shine on SNF and continue this path to 2000 yards. He is a WR1 in week seven.
Jaylen Waddle is not seeing the big downfield throws we saw last season. His yards per reception has fallen from 18.1 to 12.3. While his target share is on pace to last season, his yardage over 17 games is way down compared to 2022. Waddle has been good but not great and should likely be a solid WR2 in this matchup against the Eagles. No other receiver stands out, but maybe we’ll see Chase Claypool suit up. Durham Smythe has one target over the last two weeks. He is outside the top 24 for this time being.
The Eagles pass catchers had turned into AJ Brown being the elite option each week. He has 100 receiving yards in four straight games. Brown’s success has left Devonta Smith taking the back seat since he has just one game over 50 yards in those four. This matchup against the Dolphins is an average matchup for these receivers. For one, the Dolphins have allowed two receiving touchdowns in five games, minus the Buffalo game. They have allowed five receivers over 70 yards this year. AJ Brown should be in line for a WR1 week, as he has my complete trust. DeVonta Smith has been harder to trust due to the recent lack of production in the offense. He still should be a high-end WR2 due to his upside, but production takes him out of that WR1 range.
The Dolphins have allowed two tight ends over 50 yards this year. Dallas Goedert has been playing much better after a slow start to the season. He has seen 17 targets over the last two weeks. Goedert should be able to thrive against this Dolphins defense. The last time the Dolphins played an elite tight end was Darren Waller, who put up eight for 86 yards. Goedert should be a TE1 in week seven.