Las Vegas Raiders vs Detriot Lions
Details of the Script
- MNF – 8:15 pm @ SoFi Stadium
- Weather – Indoors
- What Vegas is saying – Line (DET -8.0) & Over/Under 46
Identifying the Game Script
The Lions and the Raiders haven’t played since 2019. The Raiders would break a four-game losing streak to the Lions and get the win 31-24. The Raiders are coming off a bad loss to a Bears team led by a Division 2 quarterback. The Lions are also coming off a terrible loss to the Ravens, where they were blown out. The Lions need to get the run game going sooner against a poor Raiders run defense. The Raiders, with Jimmy Garroppolo back, are looking to rebound in a favorable matchup for the passing game. He should be able to get his top weapons the ball and produce in fantasy. This should be an interesting MNF.
Garroppolo is back in week eight after missing week seven due to a back injury. Jimmy G has been okay this season, with two games with 19 fantasy points. He hasn’t been a reliable fantasy option in lineups. The Lions have not been great this season vs. fantasy quarterbacks. They have allowed four quarterbacks over 240 yards this year. They also give up passing touchdowns, with four quarterbacks going for two or more this season. It’s been hard to trust Jimmy G in most weeks, but in a decent matchup, he could be decent. He is a borderline QB2 in Superflex leagues.
Jared Goff is coming off a subpar game where he finished under ten fantasy points last week. Goff has been pretty good this season, with four games over 20 fantasy points in some tough matchups. The Raiders, early on in the season, were a very good matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. They allowed 228 passing yards and two touchdowns per game over the first three weeks. Since then, they haven’t allowed a passer over 200 passing yards and just two passing touchdowns over the last four games. Goff won’t have to worry about the same type of pass rush he dealt with last week. Goff should be able to bounce back and give us a QB1 performance.
The Raiders backfield has been Josh Jacobs and him alone. He has not been as good in fantasy this year. For one, he averages 2.9 YPC and has only two touchdowns in seven games. Most of his fantasy success is in the passing game. Jacobs has been in the top three in targets, receptions, and yards among running backs this year. He has just three of seven games over ten fantasy points.
The Lions are an elite fantasy matchup vs. running backs. They allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game. The Lions have only allowed one running back over 50 yards this season. They don’t allow many running backs to cross the endzone. The Lions also haven’t allowed passing value to running backs, with only two backs with four receptions. Jacobs should continue to see his 15-plus touches, but he may not be effective in a tough matchup. Jacobs is a high-end RB2 in week eight.
The Lions backfield will be without David Montgomery once again. Jahmyr Gibbs gets another start in week eight. Gibbs finished with 23 fantasy points as he had over 60 rushing yards and had nine receptions. While I don’t think he’ll do that again since the Lions should be ahead in this matchup.
The Raiders are a bottom-ten unit against fantasy running backs. The Raiders’ run defense has been so bad – they have allowed five rushing touchdowns over the last three games. They don’t let significant rushing outputs, but they have allowed five of the previous six running backs with 60-plus yards. Gibbs has seen a bigger workload, with Montgomery being out of the lineup twice. I assume that Gibbs should see most of the backfield workload and likely see 15-plus carries. Gibbs is a high-end RB2. Craig Reynolds may see some opportunity for some carries, but likely not enough as an RB4.
For the Raiders pass catchers, getting Jimmy G back can be very good for a few of them. He seems to have a fantastic connection with Jakobi Meyers that has made him a strong WR3 this season. Jimmy G helped Michael Mayer with his first solid game of 2023. The Lions are a beatable secondary. They may not allow huge games, but they have given up some solid fantasy production. The Lions have allowed a 70-yard receiver in four straight games. They have given up at least one touchdown in six of seven games this season.
Davante Adams has been under ten fantasy points in three straight games. He isn’t working with these Raiders quarterbacks at the moment. We need to lower expectations for Adams in this game, especially with a less than 100% Jimmy G. Adams is a safe, high-end WR2 in week eight, which is shocking.
Meyers has double-digit fantasy points in five of six games this year. He has been an excellent addition to this offense and is being used well. He has more double-digit targets than Adams this year. Meyers is a high-end WR3 in this matchup. He should end up providing a safe flex play against the Lions. For the tight end position, it is a favorable matchup for rookie Michael Mayer. The Lions allow the second most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. They have allowed solid yardage to tight end groups this season. Mayer had a down week, but with Jimmy G back, I’d roll with him again. He should be a high-end TE2 who can make some noise on MNF.
For the Lions pass catchers, Amon-Ra St. Brown is at the top. While he did pop on the injury report over the weekend, he should be fine. The Raiders can be a tough matchup for the pass catchers. After allowing seven touchdowns in the first four weeks, they have given up none over the last three weeks. They haven’t gone up against any great offense in that span. They have allowed seven receivers to go over 70 yards. I think St. Brown should be able to finish that game as a WR1. He sees a significant target share and is being used in the red zone.
Josh Reynolds has been quiet the last two weeks, under seven fantasy points. He is still playing a high-end snap, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit. Reynolds falls to a low-end WR4 in week eight. Jameson Williams is outside the top 60. He needs to show some consistency before he gets into my lineup.
For the tight end position, Sam LaPorta has a decent but not great matchup. The Raiders haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since week three. Not a single tight end has gone for over 45 yards this year. LaPorta has been so consistent in getting you eight fantasy points in most weeks. It’s hard not to trust him as a TE1 for week eight.
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