Tampa Bay Bucs vs the Buffalo Bills
Details of the Script
- TNF – 8:15 pm @ HighMark Stadium
- Weather – Cloudy Evening
- What Vegas is saying – Line (BUF -9.0) & Over/Under 43.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Bills and the Bucs played each other was in the 2021 season. The Bucs would win an overtime game 33-27 over the Bills back when Mr. Tom Brady was still playing. The Bucs are coming off a close divisional loss to the Falcons. The Buffalo Bills lost as a shocker to the New England Patriots as they did not look like the elite team they are. This will be an interesting game as the Bills are elite on offense, but the Bucs defense is good against fantasy players. The Bills’ defense hasn’t been the same the last few weeks, so this could be an excellent opportunity for this Bucs offense to get back on track. TNF has been very high-scoring, so let’s see what team can step up.
Baker Mayfield has not been the same quarterback since returning from the bye week. While he played better this week, the offense doesn’t look that good. He has gone four straight games with a turnover. Mayfield won’t have an easy matchup on a short week on the road.
The Bills allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Bills have dealt with some injuries in recent weeks that have made this a slightly easier matchup. They have allowed a passer over 270 yards in three of the last four games. While the yardage is high, the Bills have only allowed one quarterback to throw for more than one touchdown. Since all the injuries have occurred, we’ve seen that the Bills aren’t creating turnovers. This could help Mayfield, who has been dealing with turnovers. Mayfield hasn’t played as well outdoors compared to inside, so Mayfield could struggle. Mayfield is a low-end QB2.
Josh Allen, in fantasy, bounced back with over 25 fantasy points despite turning the ball over twice. He continues to be an elite fantasy option for us, with over 20 fantasy points in five of seven games. This matchup against the Bucs should not be that challenging for Allen. They have allowed multi-touchdown games in four of six outings to quarterbacks. They also have given up 250 passing yards in four of six games. Allen will also play at home, where he has been fantastic this season. He has averaged 280 passing yards in four home games and three touchdowns. Allen should have no worries finishing as a QB1.
The Bucs continue to have issues with their backfield this season. Starter Rachaad White leads a terrible backfield, averaging under 4.0 YPC for those who have seen at least ten carries. White has seen a decent passing value in this offense, seeing six receptions for 65 yards in week seven. The Bills have not been great against running backs this year. They have allowed four backs to rush for over 90 yards in seven games. They also have given up five rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks.
White should continue to lead the team, as no one else has proven to take significant opportunities away. Plus, he did have some good receiving production, so I wouldn’t expect a change. White should be able to finish as a low-end RB2 in a slightly favorable matchup. KeShawn Vaughn has done almost nothing since returning in week four. He will likely be outside the top 50 running backs. Chase Edmonds is the one running back to keep your eyes on as he is coming off the IR. In week two, Edmonds had an increased snap count early in that game before getting hurt. Edmonds would still likely be outside the top 50 until he can show.
The Bills backfield has come down to two running backs moving forward. Damien Hairrs lands on the IR and will miss some time. James Cook and Latavious Murray are the new duo in Buffalo. In week seven, they split the offensive snaps 50/50. While Murray didn’t produce that well, James Cook did have a rebound day. Cook handled most of the early down work while Murray was heavily involved in the red zone and third down role in the offense. The Bucs are a tough run defense that the Bills backfield may have trouble with. Outside this year’s one-game, they have held opposing running backs under 60 yards. The Bucs are also one of two teams that haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown on the season.
Cook’s bounce-back game in week seven had nothing to do with his rushing yards. He has been under 75 yards in four straight games. When Cook gets work in the passing game, he has done well for us in fantasy. It seems like Cook has been limited to some extent all year. Cook should be somewhere around a mid-range RB2 in week eight. Murray is seeing more work but hasn’t produced much with it this year. He is interesting for fantasy since he is being trusted with essential drives, especially around the red zone. Murray is likely a low-end RB4 who would need a touchdown to have an effective fantasy day.
The Bucs pass catchers have only been Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this year. They have some excellent young players, but none have been able to be consistent in fantasy. Even for their recent injury concerns, the Bills have only allowed three receivers over 70 yards this year. The likelihood that one of Evans or Godwin’s scores is high as the Bills have given up a receiving touchdown in five of seven games this year. Evans has been the receiver who has been lighting it up in fantasy. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw his fifth touchdown of the season. Evans should be a high-end WR2 in week eight.
Godwin is still looking for his first touchdown of the year. He has seen double-digit targets in two of the last three games. He has at least 50 yards in five of six games. Godwin is a high-end WR3 in week eight. Please note that he is dealing with an injury and could miss week eight. If that were the case, Trey Palmer would be a name to know in deeper leagues.
Cade Otton had his best game of the season in week seven with five receptions for 43 yards. Otton has only been able to produce over 20 yards twice this year. The Bills have allowed an opposing tight end over 40 yards in three of the last four games but with only one touchdown. Despite some recent success, Otton is still outside the top 24.
The pass catchers for the Bills have been Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, but rookie Dalton Kincaid had an outstanding performance in week seven. Back to the receivers, the Bucs’ secondary has been a good matchup in fantasy. They have allowed a 100-yard receiver and a receiving touchdown in four of six games. Diggs had his second game since week two under 100 receiving yards. He has been fantastic for fantasy, with double-digit fantasy points in every game. Diggs should be able to bounce back, reach over 100 yards, and finish as a WR1.
Davis had a lousy week seven but has never performed against the Patriots. He has had under two fantasy points in back-to-back games, but he should bounce back. Davis is a boom/bust WR4 who is a risky flex option in this matchup. Khalil Shakir has been seeing a more prominent role in the offense recently, and he is a name to watch out for.
Rookie Dalton Kincaid wants a repeat performance in week eight for the tight end position. Dawson Knox is undergoing wrist surgery that will knock him out for a few weeks. Kincaid should jump into the starting tight end role and likely see over 80% of the offensive snaps. The Bucs have been in the top ten against fantasy tight ends this year. Most of that reason is that they haven’t allowed a touchdown to the position. They have given six tight ends over 30 yards this year. Kincaid should be a high-end TE2. I like his potential, but I don’t expect Allen to need to throw it 40 times in this game. Kincaid should see around five targets in this game. He has good potential for week eight.
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