Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Jets
Details of the Script
- MNF – 8:15 p.m. @ Metlife Stadium
- Weather – Clear Evening
- What Vegas is saying – Line (LAC -3.5) & Over/Under 39.5
Identifying the Game Script
The last time the Jets and the Chargers played each other was back in 2020. The Chargers would win a shootout 34-28 over the Jets. The Jets have lost four straight games to the Chargers. The Jets are coming off the worst win ever seen on TV to the Giants. The Chargers on SNF took care of business with the Bears. The Jets offense hasn’t been able to prove anything in the air, but it’s a terrific matchup for Zach Wilson and this pass attack. I’m not sure they will use it to their advantage, but it’s something they should. The Chargers offense should likely use their running backs and tight ends, as the Jets have been weak on defense against them. This game will probably come down to the end, where a field goal would win it all.
Justin Herbert was able to bounce back last week with a 30-point outing. Herbert has been an elite fantasy option all season. Herbert does have a tough matchup against the Jets’ defense. They are a top-ten unit against fantasy quarterbacks. The Jets have allowed just one quarterback to pass over 260 yards on the season. They have allowed just two quarterbacks over one passing touchdown. They stopped quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen this season. Herbert should be able to do enough to be a QB1 this week. It’s hard not to trust an elite option like Herbert in fantasy in week nine.
Zach Wilson has not been a good fantasy asset this season. He has two games over 12 fantasy points on the season. The matchup is so favorable as the Chargers allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have let every opposing quarterback produce at least 230 passing yards. They have allowed three quarterbacks with three-plus passing touchdowns, but those were the elite quarterbacks. Wilson was surprisingly decent in a game last week vs. the Giants, where it poured. He managed to throw for 240 passing yards and a touchdown. Even in a plus matchup, it’s hard to trust Wilson as a fantasy option. He is, at best, a low-end QB2 based on the recent landscape of the quarterbacks this week.
The Chargers backfield must be happy to have Austin Ekeler, but he has been disappointing since his return. Granted, he had a great week eight game, but he only averages 2.4 YPC this season. His targets are down, and he is averaging five targets per game. The Jets’ run defense is decent as best this year. They have allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of the last four games this year. The Jets have only allowed one rushing touchdown on the season. The good thing for Ekeler is that his rushing isn’t what is making his fantasy success. The Jets have allowed a ton of passing work to running backs this season. If Ekeler continues to see the target share he saw last week, he’ll be an RB1 in fantasy. Joshua Kelley returned to earth in week eight. Kelley is, at best, a low-end RB4. They may use him to pound the ball up the middle to have some production.
The Jets backfield is all about Breece Hall, and we love it! Hall is seeing over 60% of the offensive snaps, as Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter are under 25%. The Chargers run defense is solid this season. They haven’t allowed a rusher over 60 yards since week four. The Chargers haven’t given up a ton of rushing touchdowns either, with four on the year. Like the Jets, the Chargers also give up passing work to running backs. Breece Hall can do it all and is playing most of the backfield snaps. Hall should be able to see 15-plus touches in this game. Hall will be an RB1 whether he runs or catches balls. Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter have combined for seven fantasy points in the last two games. They are both outside the top 50 running backs.
The Chargers receivers will have a very tough matchup in week nine. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to receivers. The Jets haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown since week one. They have allowed only three receivers over 50 yards this year. Those three receivers would go for 100 yards against the Jets. Keenan Allen hasn’t kept up with the big performances he was having in the early weeks of the season. He still has six of seven games over ten fantasy points. Allen sees almost ten targets per game, so he should be a safe borderline WR1 in week nine.
Joshua Palmer will miss this game, so this will be a prime opportunity for Quinton Johnston to step up. Johnston, with Palmer banged up last week, saw five receptions for 50 yards. This likely won’t be an easy matchup for Johnston in week nine. He is a WR4 with boom/bust potential based on his skill sets.
For the tight end position, they have a fantastic matchup in week nine. The Jets allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have allowed five receiving touchdowns but only one tight end over 45 yards. Gerald Everett should play in this game, and I’d rank him as a mid-range TE2 with sleeper appeal. If Everett were to miss, Donald Parham would get a considerable boost after coming off a 12-point fantasy week in week eight. He would be a high-end TE2, but with Everett, he is a borderline TE2.
For the Jets pass catchers, they have a great matchup in week nine. The Chargers allow the third most fantasy points per game. The Chargers have been a bit better in recent weeks against receivers. In the first three weeks, they gave up six receiving touchdowns and two 100-yard receivers. In the last four weeks, they have given up three receiving touchdowns with one 100-yard receiver.
Garrett Wilson has 90 yards in back-to-back games. He also has three of the last four games with double-digit targets. Zach Wilson seems to have only eyes for Wilson, so he should have a great game. Wilson is a WR1 in week nine. Allen Lazard may be the only other receiver with some value in week nine. He saw six targets last week, and if he can see that again, he may have a WR5 appeal.
For the tight end position, the Chargers are a decent matchup. They have allowed three elite games to opposing tight ends. They have allowed 75 yards or more to their last two opposing tight ends. Tyler Conklin hasn’t been a consistent producer this season. He doesn’t see the targets to trust completely. He is, at best, a low-end TE2 that could have some deep sleeper appeal.
The Dynasty Nerds YouTube channel is a channel you need to check out now. You can see the podcast straight from NerdHQ!! Smash that subscribe button. Sign up for the DynastyGM tool to keep that edge over your league mates. Manage all of your dynasty teams, use the trade calculator, and we just added a player shares tool so you can see all players you roster in one place.