With the NFL combine slowly approaching, now is a great time to update my 2023 dynasty quarterback rankings. As I always remind people, rankings are subject to change because everyone has a different roster construction, making some quarterbacks more valuable than others.
These rankings will also include the quarterbacks for this 2023 class. However, remember that these rookie evaluations are subject to change, especially after the NFL combine. That said, numerous factors are considered to provide the most accurate tier list of the current quarterback landscape.
1. Patrick Mahomes, KCC
The QB1 should be an obvious choice with everything we’ve seen this past season. If you can build your dynasty roster around one player in a Superflex format, it has to be Patrick Mahomes.
There isn’t much to say about Mahomes except that he has been dominant since he became a starter. Since 2018 Mahomes has averaged 23.5 PPG, which is just phenomenal. At only 27, Mahomes will have another eight or more years of top-level production.
Many people said to draft Josh Allen this past offseason above Mahomes because he wouldn’t be the same without Tyreek Hill. Mahomes proved the doubters wrong, putting up 5,250 yards, 41 touchdowns, an MVP, and a Super Bowl victory. To go along with this, Mahomes also has a solid rushing upside, with 300 to 400 rushing yards a season since 2020. This may not seem like a lot, but this adds up over time.
Having extra rushing yards and touchdowns helps elevate these players’ ceilings instead of pocket passers with no rushing upside. The bottom line is that Mahomes is the number one asset in all of dynasty due to his unbelievable floor and ceiling combination.
2. Josh Allen, BUF
Josh Allen is a fantastic player who has almost put up Mahomes-type fantasy numbers over his NFL career. Since 2018 Allen has averaged 21.7 PPG and a 24.7 PPG season this past year. However, what separates the two is that Mahomes is a better real-life quarterback who doesn’t need to run the ball nearly as much as Allen. Even though Allen is a big quarterback, some of the hits he takes make me question his longevity.
In dynasty, I’m much more comfortable taking a quarterback who doesn’t need to scramble a ton to score fantasy points. On top of that, Allen has struggled with turnovers over the past few seasons. Even with that in mind, due to Allen’s incredible floor and ceiling combination, he should be the consensus QB2.
3. Joe Burrow, CIN
Dropping down to our next tier, we have Joe Burrow at number three. Burrow is a phenomenal player with ample rushing upside and instead scores most of his points from the pocket. Over his career, Burrow has averaged 19.6 PPG, and he’s only 26 years old.
Ever since entering the league, Burrow’s fantasy production has increased yearly; this past year, he posted a career-best 21.9 PPG. We all know Burrow is an excellent passer, but in the 2022 season, he also took a step up with his rushing ability. This last season, Burrow had 257 rushing yards and five touchdowns, more than double his stats from the previous year.
Lastly, Burrow is in an extraordinary situation with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and a solid offensive line. Many are worried about Higgins leaving, but I expect the Bengals to be able to move some money around to make room for him. Even so, having a young number-one receiver like Chase for the long term as well as these other factors, warrants Burrow for the QB3 spot.
4. Jalen Hurts, PHI
After an incredible Super Bowl performance, I’ve seen Jalen Hurts being ranked even higher than this, but fourth is a fair spot for him. Coming out of college, Hurts had a ton of doubt surrounding him, but he’s looked fantastic since taking over as the starter for the Eagles. In his first year, Hurts was outstanding from a fantasy side, putting up 20.8 PPG on 3,144 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
Since day one, Hurts has shown elite rushing production with 784 yards and ten touchdowns in his first season. However, this past season, Hurts also made enormous strides in his passing game. This past year Hurts had 3701 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Hurts also kept up this elite rushing production with 760 yards and 13 touchdowns. This was good for a career year of 25.2 PPG. As we discussed before, Hurts is bumped down just a bit due to concerns about the longevity of his playstyle. That said, Hurts has proven himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, especially from a fantasy football standpoint.
5. Justin Herbert, LAC
At number five, I have Herbert, even though the gap between him and Trevor Lawrence is closer than ever. Nonetheless, Herbert is extremely talented and has shown more in his NFL career, averaging 20.4 PPG. Herbert had an outstanding first two seasons putting up 22.2 and 22.4 PPG but disappointed this year with only 16.5 PPG.
In 2022 Herbert regressed in every category, including rushing, which dropped from 302 yards to 147. This is partially due to the multitude of injuries this offense suffered, especially Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Unfortunately, Herbert doesn’t have a great situation around him, as Williams, Allen, and Austin Ekeler are all aging out.
It’s essential that this front office can bring in some fresh new talent. The Chargers did pick up Kellen Moore, who loves to push the pace of play, and this will help Herbert from a fantasy perspective. Overall, Herbert is a great player, and I love investing in him for the long term.
6. Trevor Lawrence, JAX
Lawrence looked outstanding this year, putting 17.4 PPG on 4,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. On top of this, I love the situation surrounding Lawrence. Next year, Lawrence will have Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, and possibly Evan Engram.
Lawrence is also a solid rusher with 291 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Going into his third year, I expect the former number-one overall pick to take another step forward.
7. Lamar Jackson, BAL
Dropping down to our next tier, we have Lamar Jackson, who has averaged 22.4 PPG since taking over as a starter in 2019. Jackson has been statistically declining every year after his 2019 MVP season. This is partly because he has suffered injuries over the past few years. On top of this, Jackson has no weapons besides Mark Andrews.
The team has Rashod Bateman returning next year, but they need to get Jackson more weapons. The only reason I have him above Fields is that he is a better passer and still possesses that elite rushing upside. I can’t put him much higher than this due to his injury concerns and terrible situation, but Jackson is still a great quarterback to have in dynasty.
8. Justin Fields, CHI
Fields had a fantastic season from a fantasy football perspective despite playing for the worst team in the NFL. Fields averaged 19.7 PPG due to 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. Although Fields had a less-than-stellar season throwing the ball, he was in the worst situation in the NFL.
However, the Bears have the number one draft pick and $92 million to spend in free agency. This situation will only improve for Fields, but the question is how much. Although many incorrectly label Fields as only a runner, he was an elite passer in college.
While there’s no guarantee this will transfer over to the NFL, he has the potential to be a great passer to go along with his mobility. I would love to rank Fields higher, but the eighth spot is a fair place to put him due to his potential injury risk and uncertain future.
9. Deshaun Watson, CLE
After a disappointing 2022 season, Watson has dropped in many people’s rankings. In reality, this is ridiculous, considering Watson hadn’t played football for two years before his return. Watson finished the season with 14.3 PPG in six games but ended the year with a 21.9 and 17.6-point performance.
We’ve seen the ability before with Watson, as he was a top-five quarterback every year from 2018 to 2020. It’s important to remember that the Texans had few weapons, whereas, on the Browns, Watson is stepping into a good situation. He has guys like Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku, and an offensive line ranked second by PFF.
It’s also significant to note that Watson is under contract through 2027 and is being paid the most guaranteed money in NFL history. Watson has a ridiculous team investment where he will be the guaranteed starter and expected to throw the ball a lot. Overall there’s a considerable risk in investing in Watson, but the tremendous amount of upside he provides puts him at number nine on this list.
10. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
At number 10, I also struggled between Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. While there’s a big concern with Tagovailoa’s concussion history, Murray is coming off a complete knee tear-up. Tagovailoa’s injuries are very concerning; however, I’m willing to chalk up these concussions where he got let back into the game as a fluke.
From a football standpoint, Tagovailoa still played in 13 games and had a career year with 17.8 PPG. Tagovailoa looked terrific and was even an MVP candidate before injuries derailed his season. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa has the least rushing upside on this list, as he finished the year with only 70 rushing yards.
I love Tagovailoa’s situation with Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Mike McDaniel. Tagovailoa is a great talent, with fantastic pieces around him warranting him the number 10 spot.
11. Kyler Murray, ARZ
Next up on this list is Murray, who was much higher than this before the season but his ACL tear and terrible future situation have dropped him to QB11. While many want to have Murray even lower than this, it’s hard to ignore the pure talent and production he’s provided since coming into the NFL. Over his four-year career, Murray has averaged 20.3 PPG.
Even with a “regression” this past year, Murray averaged 18.2 PPG in 11 games. Murray has excellent rushing upside, as in 2020, he had 819 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. While this number has dropped to 423 and 418 yards in the past two seasons, he’s missed time in both seasons.
This upcoming season, Murray is coming off an ACL tear which will likely impact his mobility, and we have no idea if he will even play in 2023. Coming off a 4-13 season, the Cardinals are a mess.
After firing Kliff Kingsbury and DeAndre Hopkins requesting a trade, things look dark for the organization. I love Murray as a player, but his health and situation uncertainty drops him to number 11.
12. Bryce Young
To wrap up this list, we have a 2023 rookie drawing comparisons to Murray already. While Bryce Young is a healthy, younger rookie, he hasn’t proven anything at the NFL level like Murray, which puts him in this spot. That said, I love Young as a prospect, and the only significant knock I see in his profile is his size.
Young is the projected number-one overall pick and has a solid rushing upside. If he goes above C.J. Stroud in the NFL draft, he should be ranked higher, and if the opposite happens, Stroud should be ranked above Young. A few names like Dak Prescott and Trey Lance just missed the cut, and while they’re still good players, I would rather have Young.
Rookie drafts are approaching fast. Be prepared with the #1 mock draft tool on the market. And it’s FREE. Available for iPhone and Android. Become a DynastyGM subscriber and sync your leagues with the Dynasty Nerds App to mock draft your actual teams.