In dynasty fantasy football, it is crucial to know when to move on and off players. In this article, I will talk about my top 3 running backs that I expect to have their value decrease over the offseason and throughout the 2022 season.
Note: Almost all RBs are worth selling over the offseason because you never know what may happen via free agency and during the NFL draft. If you want to see three RBs that I believe are dynasty buys, click here.
1- JK Dobbins
JK Dobbins is an interesting RB going into the 2022 offseason. He missed all of 2021 with an ACL tear, and the Ravens had a large committee throughout 2021. In two recent dynasty mock drafts I was involved in, Dobbins went as the RB9 and RB13. If we are speaking purely on holding value, I think Dobbins will do that because the Raven’s offense is sexy. But if we are talking for fantasy points, the ADP feels way too high. Over the last two years, the Ravens have been 32nd (with Dobbins on the field) and 30th in RB targets. Targets lead to receptions, which is the lifeblood of a consistent fantasy RB. The Ravens make up for the loss of targets by having the 6th highest number of TDs for RBs, but TDs are tricky to predict. Lastly, I fully expect the Ravens to use a committee again in 2022 as they did back in 2020, so I would rather move off of Dobbins.
Here are a couple of trades I would try for JK Dobbins:
1- Tee Higgins & 2023 2nd FOR JK Dobbins (could also get rid of 2023 2nd)
2- David Montgomery and Christian Kirk & FOR JK Dobbins & 2023 3rd
3- Trevor Lawrence FOR JK Dobbins
2- Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry will be an obvious sell this offseason, and I am going to focus on when to sell. It is extremely important to try and sell Henry after a big playoff game. If a big playoff game does not come, I would easily sell Henry for top 12 RB value, and that will take shopping him to a team that wants to contend in 2022. In two recent mock drafts, I saw Henry go as the RB10 and RB17. His value is all over the place, and you should find the manager who values him at RB10. One last thing I want to say is selling Henry is purely from dynasty game theory. I do not know if he will continue to be a top-end RB in 2022, but I do know his value will continue to drop every month starting now.
Here are a couple of trades I would try for Derrick Henry:
1- 2023 1st & 2023 2nd FOR Derrick Henry (would do just a 1st if I am a retooling team)
2- Deshaun Watson FOR Derrick Henry (pure upside trade but big ole downside)
3- Travis Kelce FOR Derrick Henry
3- Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke will be another RB that everyone is looking to sell during the 2022 offseason, so it will be very tough to get it done. But it is worth it to try. Zeke is a sell for me because he was the RB17 in PPG, with players like Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Elijah Mitchell ahead of him. Also, I expect Pollard to continue to get more and more of the work and be the change of speed back. So, I would start by sending the trade offer of a 2023 1st for Zeke. You will most likely get rejected. Then look and try to make one of the two trades below happen!
Here are a couple of trades I would try for Ezekiel Elliot:
1- 2023 1st FOR Ezekiel Elliot
2- Elijah Mitchell FOR Ezekiel Elliot (could trade WRs to make it not look 1 for 1)
3- Marquise Brown and 2023 2nd FOR Ezekiel Elliot
Some of these trades will not work in your league, so it is necessary to be creative. I believe all the trades are doable, and you should try to see what happens. Be aggressive in trades, especially early in the offseason, but I still recommend holding onto rookie picks for as long as possible unless the trade is a slam dunk.
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