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Treylon Burks Dynasty Outlook

Today @SteveBradshawFF breaks down what the future holds for Treylon Burks in dynasty.

Treylon Burks was one of the most hyped-up players in the 2022 dynasty rookie drafts. Burks broke out at Arkansas, went in the first round in the NFL Draft, and was drafted by the Tennessee Titans to replace A. J. Brown. However, after a disappointing 2022 season, it’s time to revalue his dynasty value.

Treylon Burks 2022 Dynasty Value

Due to all these factors, Burks was drafted at the 1.04 in over 1,000 rookie drafts, according to AdeLeagues. This put him only behind elite dynasty assets like Breece HallKenneth Walker, and Drake London.

In most drafts, Burks was drafted ahead of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. I’m not arguing that Burks should be valued ahead of these other players now, but Burks is being drafted with an ADP of 69.1, a massive fall from this previous ranking.

Burks had high expectations but could not deliver and averaged only 8.6 PPG his rookie year. To put this into context, everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for Burks. For one, this Titans offense isn’t very pass-heavy in the first place. They have a freak of nature in the backfield, Derrick Henry. The team finished 29th in the league with 26.8 passing attempts per game.

To make matters worse, Ryan Tannehill only played in 12 games, and he’s not a great quarterback, to begin with. How can you expect any wide receiver to succeed when you downgrade from Tannehill to Joshua Dobbs and Malik Willis? On top of this, Burks was also unlucky with injuries and only played in 11 games. 

Buy Treylon Burks?

I expect Burks to bounce back in year two. He will have Tannehill under center for most of the year, and the team drafted Will Levis in the second round of the NFL Draft. It’s tough for me to see Burks getting worse when he is in a better situation this year.

When drafting or trading for a player in a dynasty, it’s essential to look at the prospect profile. This helps indicate long-term success for a player. 

Burks was selected with the 18th overall pick to a wide receiver-needy Titans team. He checks all the boxes you’re looking for with his size, speed, and college production. The situation is good, too, because with the Titans losing Brown just a year prior, Burks is expected to take over that role in the long term. 

Coming into the NFL, Burks was valued as the WR 16 in Dynasty. Yet after one bad year, Burks has dropped down to WR31. With this price, I’m quickly buying into Burks and his elite talent profile. 

For reference, George Pickens and Brandon Aiyuk are ranked ahead of Burks. Pickens didn’t have a great rookie year, only averaging 9.8 PPG, but he is still hyped up in the dynasty community. Aiyuk is a solid player who averaged 13.4 PPG last year, but I don’t see the upside in the long term. He’s the third passing option in a run-heavy 49ers offense. 

I would much rather have Burks than either of these players, and I believe he should be valued much higher than this. In multiple dynasty startups I’ve recently participated in, I’ve seen Burks slide even further than pick 70. If this trend continues, I’m happy to invest in Burks at a discount.

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