We are now six weeks into the NFL season. That means we are about halfway through the fantasy regular season and a third of the way through the regular season NFL schedule. Data sample sizes are becoming large enough for us to develop trends. One of the most important trends to pay attention to is what defenses give up fantasy points to various positions. This data will become essential as we make start/sit decisions later in the year.
The trade market is the other way to take advantage of these trends. Every dynasty team needs a strong core of players to get through the season. However, if you sit at 6-0, you might look for a more significant edge. You can skyrocket your fantasy points by securing flex spots with players with strong positional matchups during the crucial fantasy playoffs.
Throughout this article, I will include screenshots of actual trades that have recently happened in the dynasty community. Do you want access to this information? By becoming a member of the #NerdHerd, you can fully take advantage of all our tools. The DynastyGM2.0 app includes a trade browser to find samples and a trade calculator to ensure you are getting good returns on your trades. Be sure to use promo code ‘LUNA’ at checkout for 15% off!
D’Andre Swift, RB, PHI
It seems like forever again during the 2023 NFL draft weekend when Detroit traded Swift for a bag of peanuts. Detroit had just drafted Swift’s replacement in the first round, and the Eagles were looking to add another former Bulldog to their roster. After swapping seventh-round picks and adding a fourth, Swift found himself playing back home where he grew up. After a light workload in Week One, Swift has dominated the Philadelphia backfield.
Swift has the joy of playing with one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league and a mobile quarterback enough to freeze linebackers on options. He has taken advantage of these facts enough to be a top-five rusher in the league on the season. In the fantasy playoffs, Swift has the chance to explode. Over those three weeks, he plays the Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals. The Giants and Cardinals rank in the top three points given up to the running back position. Seattle is about league average, but that matchup is in Week 14 if you can secure a first-round bye. I would pay a 2024 first for Swift, which you can see a few examples of below.
Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL
Arthur Smith loves running the football like most people love birthday cake. When Atlanta spent a top-ten draft pick on Bijan Robinson, many in the dynasty community were mourning the end of Allgeier’s usage in this offense. The more savvy fans saw the offense that Atlanta was trying to run and knew that Allgeier’s days were not numbered. After sitting in the shadows for the past two weeks, he evenly split the work with Bijan.
This fact is critical as Bijan and Allgeier can feast during the fantasy playoffs. In the season’s final three weeks, the Atlanta Falcons will play the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, and the Chicago Bears. Atlanta is still searching for a division title and will look to dominant teams down the stretch. Luckily for Allgeier, these teams have mostly been dominated on the ground. Carolina and Chicago rank in the top five in fantasy points given up to the running back position, and the Colts are around league average. As you can see in the trades below, Allgeier is going for as cheap as a third-round pick, and that is a price I would quickly pay for some FLEX-worthy production in the fantasy playoffs.
Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
This may be the most expensive buy in this article, but it comes with a good reason. Anyone who paid any attention to Bestball drafting on Underdog this summer knew that the game everyone had in their minds was the Week 17 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. Bestball drafters were altering their draft strategies to secure players on these two squads. It is expected to be a high-scoring affair with plenty of fantasy production.
Ja’Marr Chase has a pretty hefty price tag and may even be on the ‘un-tradeable’ list for many dynasty managers. Higgins may be more obtainable, however. He is in a contract year, and many speculate that Cincinnati won’t have the money for him, Chase, and Burrow to stay together long-term. This uncertainty may leave dynasty managers doubting their future and open to selling at a discounted rate. Some of these trade packages seem to value Higgins for slightly less than a single 2024 1st, which is a price I am paying all day.
David Njoku, TE, CLE
The tight end is easily the most challenging position in fantasy football. There are only a few players that are considered every week starters. If you don’t have one on your roster, you are stuck playing the matchup game like the rest of us. Luckily, there are a few guys that have favorable playoff schedules. The first is Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson, who plays two straight favorable matchups in Weeks 15 and 16. Unfortunately, he is considered by many as the dynasty TE1, and his price reflects that. Another great option is Washington’s Logan Thomas. He plays the Rams and Jets in Week 15 and 16. Unfortunately, he also plays San Francisco during championship week. San Francisco has been one of the worst matchups in the league against the tight end.
That leaves us with our recommended buy, Njoku. He has fairly average matchups with Chicago and Houston in Weeks 15 and 16 but has a fantastic matchup against the New York Jets for your championship matchup. He is the perfect combination of good matchups with a fair market value. Just look at some of these trades in the last week alone.
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I hope you enjoyed this week’s recommended buys. For more content like this, follow me on Twitter @DanT_NFL. DMs are always open for questions, comments, or craft beer recommendations!