The first issue to address in this veteran profile of Burrow is whether or not he will be healthy to start the season. While he finished last season in fine shape, Burrow suffered a calf strain at the onset of Training Camp. That’s a critical issue as it can linger and create a lot of issues later on if it isn’t taken care of. Burrow luckily has a month to rest it and do rehab. He should be plenty healthy for the season. The Cincinnati Bengals won’t risk their star franchise quarterback. This is a prime year for this team and potentially the last true all-in year for the Super Bowl.
The Bengals’ offense is going to explode in contract money which will severely limit the Bengals’ ability to build out the rest of the team. That’s why Cincinnati is going all-in this year to get Burrow back to the Super Bowl. With roughly the same offense from last year and improved health from Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow is set up well to contend for the Dynasty QB1 crown this season. At the very least, he will give Josh Allen a run for his money to be the QB2 in dynasty.
2022 Season Recap
Burrow repeated his career-best 2021 season and improved upon some of those numbers en route to leading the Cincinnati Bengals back to the playoffs before losing in the AFC Championship Game. The Pro Bowler threw for 4,475 yards with a massive 68.3% completion rate and 35 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. Burrow continued to be lethal in the moments that mattered most with three 4th-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives. Those are crucial for racking up the fantasy points as those late-stage moments are often pass-heavy.
Burrow was also successful at limiting sacks, with only 41, a huge decrease from 2021, when he had 51. While no one would view Burrow as a rushing quarterback, he still had some damage on the ground with 257 yards and five touchdowns. That’s massive for fantasy. If the Bengals receivers had been better (remember Tee Higgins’ struggles and Chase’s injury), then Burrow’s stats would be far better, considering he dealt with 34 drops by his skill players. In nearly every advanced stat, Burrow was top-ten in all of them. Big categories include expected points added (137.2), expected points per game (18.4), and points per drop-back (0.57). Those are crucial categories to score high in if you want a great dynasty quarterback. Overall, it was hard to find anything Joe Burrow did not do well at last year.
2023 Season Projections
That’s why his 2023 season should continue to build off his great 2022 season. The numbers will improve with the Bengals playing 17 full games this year. Burrow has Chase back healthy, along with a refreshed Higgins. Joe Mixon is back. The whole squad is roaring to return to the Super Bowl, like in 2021. It shouldn’t be surprising to see that my projections for Joe Burrow are for him to have the best season yet.
He’s entering his age-27 season. Burrow is just getting to his quarterback prime time. The arm is healthy. His legs will be fine. His mental acumen is among the best in the game, not seen since Manning. Burrow is an absolute dog in football. He’s a throwback to the days of the elite pocket passers. My numbers have him as the QB3 in dynasty this year. However, that could become QB2 if Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes somehow struggle or miss time. Sadly though, due to his lack of rushing upside (which helps keep him healthier than other mobile quarterbacks), his fantasy numbers will always be unable to reach the true QB1 range. Still, he’s plenty good enough to lead your dynasty team to the championship like the last two years.
Long-Term Dynasty Outlook
Burrow’s long-term dynasty outlook is fantastic. He’s the kind of quarterback that once you acquire, you don’t move even if you’re rebuilding. The chances you can draft a quarterback better than him are slim, and he isn’t so good that he will cause you to miss out on the 1.01. Burrow is my dynasty QB6 behind Mahomes, Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. Those guys have higher rushing ability than Burrow, but that’s the only reason most are higher. Burrow is still a lethal Superflex quarterback to own. The only time you’re trading him is if it’s to get one of the guys above him. Otherwise, it just doesn’t make sense. Unless you’re loaded at quarterback, you won’t get a fair value for a top-six dynasty quarterback. And if you’re contending, you can do way worse than the Tiger King.
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As always, May the Force be with You…