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Wisdom Of The Crowd – Why Value-Based Drafting Is The Most Effective Draft Strategy

@thedynastyrobot is here to highlight some of the dynasty draft strategies have become popular in recent years. But only one stands the test of time.

Many dynasty draft strategies have become popular in recent years. One of the most common currently is to draft a super young team and defer greatness. This tends to go hand in hand with a productive struggle. We may look to acquire future rookie picks and sell off competing pieces to get younger. Another strategy employed is to draft more closely aligned to redrafts to win now. With this method, we may look to sell some future draft capital. We hope to keep the dynasty competitive until our older studs retire or fade. Other strategies, like the zero RB strategy, aim to avoid key injuries. We aim to extend our dynasty competitive window by focusing on positions with the most extended career spans. However, there is only one tried and true strategy, and that is the value-based drafting strategy.

If you haven’t already, look at my article on How To Value Players.

Why Use Value-Based Drafting?

Getting the best player available will win us more leagues than any other strategy. Consensus is pretty high in dynasty leagues. Trading that value we acquired in the draft later can get us who we truly wanted, with hopefully a little value left over to upgrade our depth or add draft capital. In addition, there are likely five teams right after our pick, hoping that player continued to slide to them. This strategy worked by taking that free value away from the subsequent managers and now having potential future trading partners down the road.

We are destroying draft value in the process if we continue to take “our guy” rather than the consensus “better” player. If there is a way to add a future rookie pick or trade picks to slide up or back in the draft, do so and get our guy at his true value during the draft; otherwise, take what the market and draft give us at the time.

How To Move To “Our Guy”

Most dynasty drafts occur way before the season starts. Remember that we are not setting a lineup in May when the draft occurs. If positions fall to us that we don’t currently need, we will have time to deal with that later on. We have ample time to make a trade that moves us positionally to a better place without giving up value. If we feel the need to get our positions sorted out during the draft because the draft is occurring closer to the start of the season or we aren’t a voluminous trader, adjust positionally deeper into the draft.

Value is more spread out at the top than further down. There is less destruction of value taking “our guy” in the later rounds. Think about the difference between picking 1.01 and 1.02 compared to 10.01 and 10.07. That drop of one spot in the first round will be worth more than the six spots in the tenth. So deviate from the consensus if we must in the later rounds. A mistake at that point in the draft is less apt to hurt us.

Everyone thinks they are more intelligent than the market consensus. Unless we genuinely have an informational edge that has not been factored into the consensus, we are only fooling ourselves. Consensus will always win in the long run.

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