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3 Overvalued Wide Receivers to Avoid at Cost

Maybe it's a low volume offense. Maybe it's a rookie QB. The Nerds team gives you 3 WR to avoid at current ADP.

Michael Pittman, WR19 

Michael Pittman Jr. is one of the most overvalued receivers in startup ADP. Pittman is a solid receiver gaining 900 yards in back-to-back seasons. As fantasy owners, we love the opportunity, and he has seen 260 targets over the last two full seasons. Pittman’s situation is getting rocky, and he could be in for more lousy quarterback play for a good portion of his career. The Colts selected Anthony Richardson, but we know he has issues he needs to work on as a passer. Richardson’s downside could affect Pittman from receiving accurate targets in the offense for a few years. Pittman is currently going in the fifth round, and hard to trust a player that early for what he has shown.

JACKSONVILLE, FL – JANUARY 09: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman (11) celebrates after his touchdown reception late in the game during the game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars on January 9, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL (Photo by Icon Sportswire)

Pittman may have had inadequate quarterbacking over his career; he was a one-person show for a while in the offense. Pittman has had the gift to play with Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal, and the shell of TY Hilton over his early career. Now he has a second-year receiver, Alex Pierce, that should be ready to take the following steps in his development. The Colts also drafted Josh Downs, a shifty slot receiver with tremendous upside as a prospect. They could take away from Pittman having an elite target share. Let’s not forget that Richardson will likely run the ball a ton, limiting the offense’s passing attempts.

Steven Pintado @CoachStevenP

George Pickens, WR31

George Pickens is overvalued as WR31. Now, I want to start by saying that Pickens has talent and projects well. He has great size, speed, and a really impressive catch radius. However, the market currently overvalues him. Kenny Pickett is still developing, but he is one of the worst QBs in the league. Pickens is currently going as his top receiving option. Still, I believe George Pickens will ultimately be Pickett’s fourth option in the passing game (Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and dump-offs to Najee Harris). Pickens had zero games with nine or more targets in 2023. Pickens’ production will rely on end zone targets and touchdowns scored. Pickett will need a major jump in year two to help George Pickens become who we think he can be. George Pickens will be a good receiver in the NFL, but I think he is currently overvalued in dynasty fantasy football.

Bobby Bishop

Drake London, WR15

At WR15 and 43rd overall, Drake London is massively overvalued. With 72 grabs for 866 yards and four touchdowns, optimism is warranted. He had a strong rookie season, and Atlanta is building an offense on the rise if fellow sophomore Desmond Ridder is the answer at quarterback.

INGLEWOOD, CA – SEPTEMBER 18: Atlanta Falcons Wide Receiver Drake London (5) runs the ball during an NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams on September 18, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire)

This is a massive reason for trepidation and why I would not take London as the 15th receiver off the board. The Falcons gave him the draft capital, taking him eighth overall in 2022, but was that warranted? He was the WR1 on some boards as a big receiver with hands, the ability to create separation, and dangerous after the catch. And the only other receiving option is Kyle Pitts. London is going to get fed the ball. Am I talking myself into taking him at WR15?

No, still a hard pass – it’s dynasty fantasy football, and all too often, we chase the new sexy name. London has promise, but I am not taking him over Deebo Samuel (WR17), DK Metcalf (WR18), DJ Moore (WR20), and Terry McLaurin (WR24) – all young and proven WR1s. The others in ADP are vets like Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams – depending on the build, I would take them before London.

The young Falcon receiver is tempting and promising. But I want a young receiver that has shown it for a few years and has more stable offenses with a more established quarterback.

Dwight Peebles @ThePeeblesChamp

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