The Week 5 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Matchup Guide was curated by Senior Staff Nerd Steven Pintado using statistics from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. Whether you’re setting lineups for redraft, dynasty, or DFS, these stats highlight usage trends and defensive tendencies that go beyond the box score—giving you the inside info you need to win in Week 5!
If you want access to these stats (and over 100 other proprietary figures) sign up here and use promo code NERDS to save 25% on a Data Suite or All-In subscription.
Week 5 Advance Player Stat of the Week | 1st Read % (QB)
Our Stat of the Week returns to the quarterback position with 1st Read %. This advanced stat measures the percentage of pass attempts where the quarterback targets the designed first-read receiver. A higher percentage means the QB is less likely to progress to second, third, or checkdown options.
For fantasy purposes, a lower 1st Read % is usually better because it shows the quarterback is progressing through reads, processing the field, and making smarter decisions. These QBs are less predictable, keep drives alive, and create more consistent fantasy production. On the other hand, a higher 1st Read % can become risky—defenses may pick up on the tendency, which can lead to turnovers, stalled drives, or shutdown plays once the first read is taken away.
(Tap to Continue) Week 5 Advanced Stat of the Week | 1st Read %
Of the current top 12 fantasy quarterbacks (points per game), eight fall outside the top 12 in 1st Read %. Quarterbacks like Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and Josh Allen are spreading the ball around more, which has been a key factor in their fantasy success. By working through progressions instead of locking onto the first read, they keep defenses guessing and create production in multiple ways — whether through passing volume, rushing upside, or big-play opportunities.
Drake Maye Photo by Fred Kfoury IIIIcon Sportswire
Among the current top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, only a few also rank inside the top 12 in 1st Read % — namely Drake Maye, Daniel Jones, and Patrick Mahomes. While all three have been excellent fantasy producers so far, there’s some risk of regression if defenses start to key in on their passing tendencies and take away that first read.
While 1st Read % isn’t the biggest driver of fantasy production, it can highlight certain trends. Players like Cam Ward, Joe Flacco, and Russell Wilson rank among the lowest in 1st Read %, yet other factors — such as offensive line play, scheme, or declining efficiency — have contributed more to their poor fantasy seasons. On the flip side, quarterbacks like Bo Nix and Dak Prescott also carry lower 1st Read % numbers, but in their case, it could signal room for growth and improved fantasy success as the year progresses.
Below in each dropdown are the full Week 5 Team Stats powered by Fantasy Points Data Suite. Use these metrics to make informed Start/Sit decisions, place prop bets, or make DFS lineup calls.
Thursday Night Football | 8:15 PM | Week 5 Start/Sit Fantasy Football
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
Jerry Jeudy – with an average 1st Read %(26.5), Jeudy may be in trouble against the Vikings, who allow the 2nd lowest 1st Read % (61.4) to opposing receivers.
Justin Jefferson – has been eager to score a touchdown since Week 1; he could get back on track against the Browns, who allow the third-most end zone targets to WRs with 10.
Team Stats | Week 5 Fantasy Football Start/Sit
Team
Def. Rank vs QBs
Def. Rank vs RBs
Def. Rank vs WRs
Def. Rank vs TEs
Def. 2 Man %
Def. Zone %
1-HI Sfty %
2-HI Sfty %
Off. Plays Ran
Points Per Game
Pass Yards/G
Rush Yards/G
Vikings
3
18
1
9
14.6
78.9
26.8
73.2
56.3
25.5
184.8
109.3
Browns
11
3
21
14
40.3
58.0
61.3
38.7
66.3
14.0
195.0
84.8
Advanced QB Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
Fantasy Points P/G
Total Yards/G
TD/G
D/GM
QB FP/DB Man
QB FP/DB Zone
YAC %
ADJ Comp %
1 Read %
Press %
ADOT
Minnesota Vikings
Carson Wentz
QB3
57%
21.3
269.5
2.0
39.5
60.4
102.5
48.2
78.3
62.1
41.8
8.5
Cleveland Browns
Dillon Gabriel
Low QB2
69%
3.4
9.5
0.5
2.0
72.9
0.0
73.7
75.0
100.0
25.0
5.5
Advanced RB Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
Touches/G
ATT %
Off. Snaps %
TGT %
i5 %
i20 %
EXP Run %
MTF/ATT
YACO/ATT
YBCO/ATT
XFP
Vikings
Jordan Mason
Low RB2
81%
11.3
15.5
58
59
6.3
100
81.8
7.1
0.23
2.3
2.6
10.6
Vikings
Zavier Scott
Low RB2
63%
9.5
8.5
10
33
11.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00
1.7
1.4
11.0
Browns
Quinshon Judkins
High RB2
88%
14.7
19.0
53
47
7.6
66.7
70.0
4.1
0.20
3.0
1.9
16.5
Browns
Jerome Ford
Outside Top 48
45%
3.2
6.0
14
41
7.9
20.0
12.5
0.0
0.1
2.5
0.5
7.8
Advanced WR Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
R/G
Advantage Score
Primary Defender
Man Win Rate
Zone Win Rate
Slot RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
Vikings
Justin Jefferson
Mid WR1
95%
12.5
7.8
27.9
0.24
31.8
🟢 1.48
Greg Newsome
25.0
12.3
18.9
114.0
2.0
31.2
Vikings
Jordan Addison
High WR3
78%
13.4
8.0
17.4
0.20
49.0
🟢 1.28
Denzel Ward
4.5
4.0
24.5
60.0
0.0
25.0
Browns
Jerry Jeudy
Mid WR4
65%
6.2
7.5
18.3
0.20
37.8
🟡 1.01
Isaiah Rodgers
31.1
12.8
16.6
32.0
0.0
26.5
Browns
Isaiah Bond
Low WR5
53%
3.2
3.5
29.2
0.27
32.0
🟡 1.00
Josh Metellus
29.6
10.4
37.5
143.0
0.0
40.0
Advanced TE Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
RTE/G
Slot RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
Man Win Rate
Zone Win Rate
Vikings
T.J. Hockenson
High TE2
73%
6.0
4.5
16.2
0.2
25.8
40.8
53.0
1.0
16.9
14.6
3.4
Browns
David Njoku
High TE2
72%
5.0
5.3
11.6
0.2
32.3
31.0
75.0
0.0
13.7
8.2
2.6
Browns
Harold Fannin Jr.
Low TE1
75%
6.2
6.0
14.0
0.2
24.8
46.5
76.0
0.0
17.6
11.1
3.4
Sunday Early Football | 1:00 PM | Week 5 Fantasy Football Start/Sit
Cooper Rush – could be in for a tough week as the Texans have allowed the 2nd fewest passing touchdowns to opposing QBs. Rush has 5 career games with more than 1 touchdown.
C.J. Stroud – could see a bump in production as he faces the Ravens, who allow the 6th best ADJ Comp % (80.7), which is better than Stroud’s current % (73.3).
Jalen Hurts – The Eagles quarterback may be forced into passing in week 5 as the Broncos have allowed just 21 rushing yards to opposing QBs this year.
DEN Backfield – J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvy may both be in for some good runs against the Eagles, who allow the 10th most yards after contact (2.37), as both running backs rank inside the top 17.
Garrett Wilson – Could be a big week for Wilson, who has been average after the catch, but plays the Cowboys, who have allowed the 2nd most YAC (589) this year.
George Pickens – The Cowboys receiver could be in for another big highlight game as the Jets run the 7th most plays in man coverage(34.4%), and Pickens has a 25% win rate vs. Man.
Jonathan Taylor – Could be another average day from Taylor, who faces the Raiders, who allow just a 2.9% Exp Run%.
Ashton Jeanty – Matchup looks poor on paper, but the Colts allow the 4th best YPC in Zone Run Concept, a scheme that Jeanty has thrived in with a 5.31 YPC.
Michael Carter – Last time Arizona lost their top 2 options, Carter had games of 81 & 59 all-purpose yards. Expect the Cardinals to be ahead in this game.
Elic Ayamanor – The Cardinals run a high % of zone plays, and the rookie is ranked 4th in win rate against zone (16%).
Team Stats | Week 5 Fantasy Football Start/Sit
Team
Def. Rank vs QBs
Def. Rank vs RBs
Def. Rank vs WRs
Def. Rank vs TEs
Def. 2 Man %
Def. Zone %
1-HI Sfty %
2-HI Sfty %
Off. Plays Ran
Points Per Game
Pass Yards/G
Rush Yards/G
Titans
10
30
27
8
20.6
77.2
46.3
53.7
57.5
12.8
123.5
87.0
Cardinals
13
22
13
18
20.6
72.8
44.4
55.6
59.3
20.5
164.8
105.8
Advanced QB Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
Fantasy Points P/G
Total Yards/G
TD/G
D/GM
QB Rate vs Man
QB Rate vs Zone
YAC %
ADJ Comp %
1 Read %
Press %
ADOT
Tennessee Titans
Cameron Ward
QB3
40%
8.2
164.0
0.5
37.5
44.5
63.8
51.1
66.7
61.6
45.3
7.6
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray
Low QB1
93%
18.6
222.5
1.5
39.3
82.5
86.4
56.7
79.2
66.2
35.7
6.2
Advanced RB Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
Touches/G
ATT %
Off. Snaps %
TGT %
i5 %
i20 %
EXP Run %
MTF/ATT
YACO/ATT
YBCO/ATT
XFP
Titans
Tony Pollard
Low RB2
80%
9.3
18.0
77
89
7.2
20.0
54.5
1.5
0.10
2.5
1.4
12.7
Cardinals
Emari Demercado
Low RB3
73%
3.0
2.0
4
17
2.3
0.0
8.3
0.0
0.00
1.0
1.0
2.1
Cardinals
Michael Carter
Low RB4
55%
0.1
1.0
1
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00
1.0
0.0
0.4
Advanced WR Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
R/G
Advantage Score
Primary Defender
Man Win Rate
Zone Win Rate
Slot RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
Titans
Calvin Ridley
Mid WR4
64%
4.8
6.0
19.2
0.22
27.8
🟡 1.00
Will Johnson
6.7
4.0
23.4
60.0
1.0
24.7
Titans
Elic Ayomanor
High WR4
68%
8.3
6.3
18.4
0.22
25.8
🟡 1.08
Denzel Burke
17.4
16.0
10.7
31.0
2.0
22.1
Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Mid WR2
85%
10.2
6.8
20.0
0.18
35.8
🟡 1.10
L’Jarius Sneed
9.5
10.7
27.3
67.0
3.0
22.1
Cardinals
Michael Wilson
Outside Top 60
35%
3.2
6.9
10.0
0.10
31.3
🔴 0.80
Jalyn Armour-Davis
26.3
6.1
31.2
11.0
1.0
14.0
Advanced TE Stats | Starts & Sits
Team
Player
Week 5 Rankings
Confidence Meter
FPPG
TGT/G
TGT %
TPRR
RTE/G
Slot RTE %
YAC
EZTGT
1READ %
Man Win Rate
Zone Win Rate
Cardinals
Trey McBride
High TE1
99%
10.6
8.8
26.2
0.30
34.5
58.7
100.0
1.0
32.6
15.0
4.5
Titans
Chig Okonkwo
Mid TE2
65%
4.7
4.8
15.2
0.20
24.3
53.6
84.0
0.0
16.9
12.5
1.4
Washington Commanders (2-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)
Commanders Backfield – Could be a sneaky day for one running back, as the Chargers allow the second-most missed tackles forced per attempt (0.22).
Quinston Johnston – The breakout receiver could be in for another big day as the Commanders run a high % of zone coverage and Johnston ranks in the top 12 in win rate vs zone.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Could break a few runs with his speed as the Bengals allow the 6th most yards before contact at 2.06. Gibbs ranked 3rd in yards before contact.
Chase Brown – Browns struggles could continue in week 5 as the Lions allow the 5th fewest Missed Tackles Forced per attempt (.10), and Brown’s rate has been average at best(.14).
Xavier Worthy – In his return, Worthy had the 9th highest TPRR among pass catchers. The Chiefs want to get the ball to him.
Travis Etienne – The Chiefs allow the 7th most YPC to zone run concepts (4.87), and Etienne happens to lead the league in that concept with a 6.81 YPC.
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Fantasy Football Advanced Stats Glossary
This glossary explains every advanced stat used in The Full Slate Week 5 Start/Sit Preview. Each abbreviation includes a definition so you can make sharper lineup calls.
Full Glossary of Statistical Terms (Condensed Table)
QB efficiency metric factoring yards, TDs, INTs, and sacks. More accurate than yards per attempt.
Confidence Meter
Level of Confidence
Measures reliability of weekly fantasy projections. Higher = safer start/sit play.
ADOT
Average Depth of Target
Average air yards on a player’s targets. Higher ADOT = big-play role.
FPPG
Fantasy Points Per Game
Average fantasy points scored per week across positions.
YAC %
Yards After Catch Percentage
Share of a receiver’s yards that come after the catch. High YAC % = playmaking ability.
Total Yards/G
Total Yards per Game
Average rushing + passing yards per game. Useful for workload evaluation.
ADJ Comp %
Adjusted Completion Percentage
QB accuracy adjusted for drops, spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and pressure.
SCRM/G
Scrambles Per Game
Average QB scrambles per game. Adds rushing upside in fantasy scoring.
1 Read %
First Read Throw Percentage
% of throws to the first read or designed one-read plays. Reflects QB decision-making.
TD/G
Touchdowns Per Game
Average number of TDs per game (passing, rushing, or receiving).
Press %
Pressure Rate
Percentage of QB dropbacks under pressure. Impacts passing efficiency.
FP/DB
Fantasy Points per Dropback
QB fantasy efficiency metric: points scored per dropback.
CHK %
Checkdown Percentage
How often a QB targets short checkdowns. Higher = conservative play.
CPOE
Completion Percentage Over Expectation
QB completion % compared to expected based on depth/coverage. Shows accuracy skill.
i20 %
Inside 20 Rushing Share
% of team rush attempts inside the 20. Strong red-zone usage indicator.
Touches/G
Touches Per Game
Average carries + receptions per game for RB/WR/TE.
EXP Run %
Explosive Run Percentage
% of runs that go for 15+ yards. Shows big-play ability.
ATT %
Team Carry Share
Percentage of team rushing attempts handled by the RB.
MTF/ATT
Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt
How often a RB forces missed tackles on carries. Shows elusiveness.
TGT %
Target Share
% of team passing attempts going to a player. High TGT % = featured role.
YACO/ATT
Yards After Contact per Attempt
Average rushing yards after first contact. Indicates power running.
i5 %
Inside 5 Rushing Share
% of team rush attempts inside the 5. Heavy TD upside indicator.
YBCO/ATT
Yards Before Contact per Attempt
Average rushing yards before contact. Reflects O-line run blocking.
Off. Snaps/G
Offensive Snaps Per Game
Average number of plays a player is on the field per week.
XFP/G
Expected Fantasy Points per Game
Usage-based stat estimating expected PPR fantasy points per week.
TGT/G
Targets Per Game
Average number of targets a player gets each week.
YAC
Yards After Catch
Total receiving yards gained after the catch. Key WR/TE stat.
EZ TGT
End Zone Targets
Passes thrown to a receiver in the end zone. Strong TD predictor.
RTE/G
Routes Run Per Game
Average number of pass routes a player runs weekly.
SLOT RTE %
Slot Route Rate
% of player’s routes from the slot alignment. Shows usage role.
TPRR
Targets Per Route Run
How often a player is targeted per route. Efficiency in earning targets.
Zone Win Rate
Win Rate vs Zone
Receiver success rate against zone coverage.
Catch %
Catch Rate
% of total targets successfully caught. Basic WR efficiency stat.
Man Win Rate
Win Rate vs Man
Receiver success rate against man-to-man coverage.
Click above to see the Full Glossary of Statistical Terms
More Week 5 Fantasy Football Resources
Building the perfect lineup takes more than one data set. Pair this Week 5 Start/Sit Matchup Guide with the rest of our Dynasty Nerds weekly tools to gain a complete edge:
Stay locked in with Dynasty Nerds all season for data, film, and strategy that give you the confidence to set winning lineups every week.
FAQ | Week 5 Fantasy Football Start/Sit & Advanced Data Insights
Q: Which players are must-starts in Week 5 based on advanced stats? A: Data from the Fantasy Points Data Suite highlights players with high usage, red-zone touches, and strong matchup advantages. Running backs with high i20% (inside 20 rushing share) and receivers with high TPRR (targets per route run) are must-start options in Week 5 lineups.
Q: Who are the best injury replacements for Week 5 start/sit decisions? A: The best injury replacements are players with rising offensive snaps per game and increased target share. Advanced data points like XFP/G (expected fantasy points per game) and Touches/G are strong indicators of which backups can fill in as reliable fantasy starters.
Q: How can I use advanced stats for NFL player prop bets in Week 5? A: Prop betting success often comes from metrics like ADOT (average depth of target), YAC % (yards after catch percentage), and Press % (pressure rate). For example, receivers with high ADOT and consistent target share are better bets for over/under yardage props.
Q: Which advanced stats help with DFS lineup building? A: DFS players rely heavily on stats like XFP/G (expected fantasy points), TPRR (targets per route run), and i5% (inside 5 rushing share). These highlight volume and touchdown upside, which are key to building winning DFS lineups in Week 5.
Q: What advanced stats predict touchdown upside in Week 5? A: Red-zone usage stats such as i20% (inside 20 rushing share), i5% (inside 5 rushing share), and EZ TGT (end zone targets) are the strongest predictors of touchdown upside for both RBs and WRs in Week 5 fantasy matchups.
Q: How do I decide between two start/sit players with similar projections? A: When players project similarly, use matchup-adjusted stats like Man Win Rate, Zone Win Rate, and Press % (pressure rate allowed). These advanced stats help determine who has the more favorable matchup for Week 5.
Member of the Dynasty Nerds Analytics/Writing Team Twitter: @coachstevep - A Jersey Guy working in Finance! Big Dolphins fan and have been playing fantasy football since 2008.
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