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We are finishing up our Top Player at Each Position series. So far, we’ve tried to predict the QB1, WR1 and RB1. Now, we move on to the tight end position, which we may be seeing some real competition for the top spot.
Travis Kelce dominated the tight end landscape over the past 11 seasons but in the last 3 years we’ve had some new faces reach the top and even some at quite a young age.
We are going to do our best to narrow down the search for the TE1 in 2026 by using historical trends from previous TE1 seasons. We’ll start with the top 20 tight ends based on FantasyPros’ 2026 rankings and gradually eliminate players until we are left with one champion.
Some of these factors may not move the needle for everyone, but they provide a foundation that can help us identify the tight end with the best chance to finish as the TE1 in 2026.
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History of TE1 in Fantasy
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Rob Gronkowski | Travis Kelce | Rob Gronkowski | Travis Kelce | Travis Kelce |
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Travis Kelce | Mark Andrews | Travis Kelce | Sam LaPorta | Brock Bowers | Trey McBride |
Original Draft Team Factor
Eliminated: Isaiah Likely, Chig Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson, Hunter Henry
Our first elimination factor is whether the tight end is still with the team that originally drafted him. Over the last 11 seasons, every TE1 overall has been playing for the franchise that selected him in the NFL Draft. While Travis Kelce heavily influences that trend due to his multiple TE1 finishes, it remains a noteworthy factor when evaluating candidates for 2026.
Isaiah Likely is a tight end many fantasy managers are excited about heading into 2026. While Likely may not be the favorite to finish as the overall TE1, he possesses the type of upside that could allow him to buck historical trends. For the first time in his career, he enters the season as a full-time starter on a team that needs pass catchers to emerge and make an impact.
If there is anyone outside of the traditional TE1 candidates who could break this trend and surprise fantasy managers, Likely is a strong candidate. His athleticism, playmaking ability, and projected increase in opportunity give him a realistic path to a breakout season if everything falls into place.
Under 30-Years Old
Eliminated: Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle
Our next elimination factor is age. Aging tight ends have not had a major impact on producing the overall TE1 in fantasy football. Over the last 11 seasons, Travis Kelce is the only tight end over 30 to finish as the TE1 overall. Recently, we’ve seen a changing of the guard at the position, with younger tight ends breaking out earlier in their careers and pushing many of the older veterans into the TE5-TE9 range rather than competing for the top spot.
The four tight ends eliminated by this factor have all been among the best players at the position at various points over the last decade. While each still has a path to relevance in 2026, history suggests it is becoming less likely that they return to the overall TE1 crown.
Travis Kelce has shown signs of decline over the last few seasons, making it difficult to project him back to the top of the position. Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews are more intriguing cases, as both could see expanded roles within their respective offenses. In the past, increased opportunities have often translated into productive fantasy seasons for both players. George Kittle remains one of the most talented tight ends in football, but his role within the offense and the fact that he is returning from a major injury at 32-years old create enough concerns for us to eliminate him from TE1 consideration.
Expectation to be Lead Pass Catcher
Eliminated: Oronde Gadsden, Brenton Strange, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta & Kyle Pitts
Our next elimination factor is the expectation of being the team’s lead pass catcher. Of the last 11 TE1 seasons, the overall TE1 led his team in targets 9 times. The only notable exceptions were Rob Gronkowski in 2017, who finished just nine targets behind the team leader, and Sam LaPorta in 2023, when Amon-Ra St. Brown led the Lions in targets. Every other TE1 was the primary target earner on his offense.
This factor eliminates a large group of tight ends from consideration for the 2026 TE1 crown.
For players such as Oronde Gadsden II, Brenton Strange, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Kincaid, this is a major hurdle. While all have intriguing fantasy value, none are currently projected to be the clear No. 1 pass-catching option on their respective teams. Without that type of target dominance, it becomes difficult to envision them finishing as the overall TE1.
Sam LaPorta and Kyle Pitts are more complicated cases, but they will be eliminated for this exercise as well.
We already know LaPorta can finish as the TE1 without leading his team in targets, as he accomplished that feat during his rookie season in 2023. However, the emergence of Jameson Williams and the continued growth of the Lions’ passing attack around multiple weapons make it difficult to project LaPorta back to the 120-target range. His fantasy production has trended downward since his rookie season, and he will likely need an elite touchdown total to overcome being the unlikely lead for targets in Detroit.
Kyle Pitts presents a similar challenge. While there is a path for him to become Atlanta’s lead pass catcher, Drake London remains the far more likely candidate. Before his Week 10 injury last season, London had already seen 93 targets compared to Pitts’ 60. A healthy London should continue to command a massive share of the passing game, even in an offense that may be more favorable to tight ends.
That said, if anyone from this eliminated group were to break the trend and finish as the TE1 in 2026, it would be Pitts. He still has a realistic path to 100-plus targets, and if his recent touchdown growth continues, he could easily finish with 6 or more scores in 2026. The talent remains there, but the target competition makes it difficult to project him as the overall TE1.
Route Run (450 Mark)
Eliminated: Colston Loveland & Tucker Kraft
Our next elimination factor is route participation and the ability to reach at least 450 routes run during the season. This has been another strong indicator of fantasy success, as 10 of the last 11 overall TE1 finishes came from tight ends who ran at least 450 routes. The reasoning is simple: the more routes a tight end runs, the more opportunities they have to earn targets and produce fantasy points.
If we look even deeper, the trend becomes even stronger. The TE1 has run over 500 routes in each of the last six seasons. While 450 routes appears to be the minimum threshold, the modern fantasy landscape suggests that 500 routes is becoming the true benchmark for an elite fantasy tight end season.
The two tight ends we are eliminating here could potentially reach 450 routes, but both have significant obstacles that make it unlikely they reach the 500-route range.
Colston Loveland is one of the breakout tight ends waiting to happen and could eventually have a legitimate shot at finishing as the TE1 in fantasy. However, there are still several mouths to feed in Chicago. The Bears have multiple talented pass catchers, and fantasy managers are still debating who will emerge as the team’s WR1. More importantly, Cole Kmet remains on the roster.
While Loveland should eventually become the focal point of the position, Kmet’s presence could limit Loveland’s ability to operate as a true workhorse tight end in 2026. Because of that, it is difficult to project him for the route volume needed to finish as the overall TE1. While Loveland certainly has the talent, he may be a year away from making a serious run at the crown.
Tucker Kraft is another intriguing name, but the route data works against him. Despite being in the league for three seasons, he has yet to surpass 300 routes run in a single year. While that is partially due to not being the primary starter early in his career and missing time during the 2025 season, projecting him to suddenly jump into the 450-500 route range is difficult. His 17-game pace in 2025 would have put him near 405 routes, which is encouraging, but still below the threshold we typically see from the TE1. Additionally, coming off an injury, there is a possibility the Packers ease him back into a full workload. Kraft should still provide solid TE1 fantasy production, but the route volume makes it difficult to project him as the overall TE1 in 2026.
Non-Rookie Head Coach Factor
Eliminated: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride & Harold Fannin Jr.
Our final factor is the head coach. This is probably the least impactful factor in our study, but to complete the experiment, it was still a trend worth acknowledging. None of the fantasy TE1 seasons over the last 11 years came with a first-time head coach leading the team. All three of the remaining tight ends play for a rookie head coach in 2026. Before we get ahead of ourselves, this is not a major factor, and I believe any one of these three could realistically finish as the overall TE1 this season.
Brock Bowers likely has the best chance outside of our eventual winner to finish as the TE1 in 2026. He should lead the Raiders in targets and could push for 150 or more if he stays healthy. He also has an offensive play-caller in Klint Kubiak who has shown the ability to maximize his star players. Outside of Bowers, there isn’t another pass catcher who should consistently challenge for the top target share.
If Kirk Cousins starts the season at quarterback, Bowers could get off to a fast start. Cousins has a strong history of producing fantasy-relevant tight ends, including T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts. It’s hard to bet against arguably the best tight end in football right now. For the purposes of this experiment, however, the rookie head coach trend is enough to eliminate him, even though there is very little else working against him.
Trey McBride, the 2025 fantasy TE1, also has a legitimate chance to repeat. He has been a target magnet over the last two seasons, surpassing 145 targets in each year. He’ll continue working with Jacoby Brissett, who helped him dominate fantasy football last season. Arizona also projects to be a team that could spend plenty of time playing from behind, creating additional passing volume.
That said, Marvin Harrison Jr. missed most of the second half of the 2025 season, which may have contributed to McBride’s massive workload. With Harrison healthy and rookie Jeremiyah Love providing another receiving option underneath, there could be slightly more competition for targets. McBride still has every opportunity to finish as the TE1 if he maintains his elite workload, but like Bowers, he is eliminated based solely on the rookie head coach trend.
Harold Fannin Jr. isn’t quite on the same level as the previous two candidates, as I’m not as confident in his chances of finishing as the overall TE1 in 2026. He was impressive as a rookie despite splitting time with David Njoku for much of the season on a struggling Browns offense. However, he’ll face more target competition in 2026 than he did a year ago.
Jerry Jeudy should continue to have a significant role, and Cleveland invested two early draft picks at wide receiver who could immediately earn targets. While Fannin should still finish as a fantasy TE1, I think he’s likely a year away from having the combination of opportunity and offensive environment needed to reach the top overall spot. Combined with the rookie head coach trend, that is enough to eliminate him from contention for 2026.
Our 2026 TE1 Is….
Our projected TE1 for the 2026 fantasy football season is Tyler Warren. He checks every box in the historical trends we’ve discussed throughout this exercise, making him the strongest candidate to finish as the overall TE1.
After an impressive rookie campaign, Warren appears poised to take another step forward in his second season. It also looks like Daniel Jones is on track to be ready for Week 1, which is significant for Warren’s outlook. With Jones under center, Warren averaged 11.0 fantasy points per game, compared to just 4.5 fantasy points per game without him.
Opportunity is another reason to believe in a breakout. Michael Pittman’s departure leaves behind 111 targets, creating a significant void in the passing game. Warren already commanded 112 targets as a rookie, and while he may not absorb all of Pittman’s volume, even a portion of those vacated targets could push him into the elite tier. Alec Pierce is coming off ankle surgery and, although he should remain productive, it’s difficult to envision him jumping from 85 targets to the 140-target range. Josh Downs is another breakout candidate, but he already saw 88 targets last season, making a massive increase less likely. That leaves Warren with a legitimate chance to lead the Colts in targets while also becoming the team’s primary red-zone receiving threat behind Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts should remain competitive throughout the season, and Warren figures to be a central piece of the offense. He is an athletic young tight end who creates production after the catch, with nearly half of his receiving yards coming after the catch during his rookie season. That ability allows him to generate explosive plays without relying solely on volume.
While Tyler Warren may be considered a sleeper by many to finish as the overall TE1, he fits every historical trend we’ve examined. Given his projected target share, athletic profile, and expected role in the Colts offense, I believe he has an outstanding chance to finish as the overall TE1 in fantasy football in 2026.
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